2011 Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis Andrey Korotayev, Julia Zinkina (Russian Academy of Sciences)
Causes of revolution Economic stagnation? Poverty? Inequality? Corruption? Unemployment?
GDP dynamics in Egypt, 1980-2010, billions of 2005 dollars, PPP 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Population dynamics of Egypt, 1980-2010, millions 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2003 Relative population growth rates in Egypt, (% per year) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1,92 1,9 1,88 1,86 1,84 1,82 1,8 1,78
5500 GDP per capita dynamics in Egypt, 1980-2010, in 2005 dollars, PPP 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Corruption?
Transparency International Corruption Index, 2010
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Singapore Sweden Switzerland Germany Japan UK USA France Estonia Slovenia Malaysia Tunisia Italy Cuba Bulgaria China Greece India Egypt Argentina Kazakhstan Algeria Indonesia Vietnam Belarus Syria Bangladesh Ukraine Iran Libya Yemen Russia Tajikistan Kenya Kyrgyzstan Guinea Uzbekistan Sudan Iraq Transparency International Corruption Index, 2010
Unemployment?
Kuwait (2008) Singapore (2010) Norway (2010) China (2010) Austria (2010) Japan (2010) Germany (2010) Russia (2010) Slovenia (2010) Canada (2011) UK (2010) Italy (2010) Finland (2010) Sweden (2010) Belgium (2010) Egypt (2010) USA (2011) Poland (2010) EU (2010) Bulgaria (2010) France (2010) Algeria (2009) Portugal (2010) Hungary (2010) Greece (2010) Columbia (2010) Jordan (2010) Libya (2005) Tunisia (2009) Lithuania (2010) Albania (2010) Ireland (2010) Latvia (2011) Slovakia (2010) Iraq (2009) Croatia (2010) Estonia (2010) Spain (2010) South Africa (2010) Honduras (2007) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Unemployment levels (%) in some countries of the world
Dynamics of unemployment in Egypt, 1990-2010 (%%) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Inequality?
35 Inequality (Gini Index) dynamics in Egypt, 1991-2005 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Denmark Japan Sweden Norway Finland Germany Belarus Bulgaria Bangladesh Slovenia Egypt France Albania Tajikistan Ireland Tanzania Spain Algeria Italy United Kingdom New Zealand India Jordan Yemen Viet Nam Iran Israel Senegal United States Georgia Tunisia Morocco China Russia Philippines Uruguay Congo Nepal Kenya Brazil South Africa Haiti Botswana Namibia 80 Level of inequality (Gini Index), 2000-2010 70 60 50 40 30 20
Poverty?
Poverty: per cent of population below $1 a day income poverty line
4,5 Population below $1.25 a day income poverty line (%), dynamics in Egypt, 1991-2005 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1991 1996 2001 2006
Slovenia Estonia Egypt Morocco Tunisia Venezuela Armenia Mexico Brazil Peru Bolivia Georgia Sri Lanka China Yemen Kenya Mauritania Tajikistan Viet Nam Philippines South Africa Indonesia Senegal Timor-Leste Ethiopia India Laos Uzbekistan Bangladesh Haiti Nepal DRC Chad Nigeria Niger Guinea Mozambique Burundi Liberia 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Population below $1.25 a day income poverty line (%)
Poverty: per cent of population below $2 a day income poverty line
S.Korea Slovenia Russia Estonia Croatia Belarus Chile Bulgaria Romania Jordan Malaysia Venezuela Argentina Thailand Tunisia Morocco Kazakhstan Egypt Algeria Moldova Georgia China Sri Lanka Kenya South Africa Armenia Philippines Yemen Viet Nam Mongolia Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Pakistan Senegal Cambodia Haiti India Sierra Leone Uzbekistan Laos Timor-Leste Nepal Bangladesh Nigeria Niger Guinea Liberia 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Population below $2 a day income poverty line (%)
How the real Third World poverty looks like: Kibera (Nairobi, Kenya)
ТЕМ НЕ МЕНЕЕ, КАКОЕ-ТО ВЛИЯНИЕ ДИНАМИКА БЕДНОСТИ ВСЁ-ТАКИ ОКАЗАЛА ПАРАДОКС Гамала Сиама и Ханади Мустафы Абд ар- Ради
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 авг 11, 1987 май 07, 1990 янв 31, 1993 окт 28, 1995 июл 24, 1998 апр 19, 2001 янв 14, 2004 окт 10, 2006 июл 06, 2009
2005 2005,5 2006 2006,5 2007 2007,5 2008 2008,5 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Dynamics of the world wheat prices, $/ton, 2005-2011
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 FAO Global Cooking Oil Price Index (2002-2004=100, deflated)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FAO Global General Food Price Index (2002-2004=100, deflated) 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 29 Population below $2 a day income poverty line (%), dynamics in Egypt, 1991-2005 27 25 23 21 19 17
Динамика мировых цен на продовольствие (общий индекс цен на продовольствие ФАО, 2002 2004 = 100, с учетом инфляции), январь 2003 май 2011 гг. 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 Июнь 2011 Май 2011 Апрель 2011 Март 2011 Февраль 2011 Январь 2011 Декабрь 2010 Ноябрь 2010 Октябрь 2010 Сентябрь 2010 Август 2010 Июль 2010
Процент россиян, ответивших «Испытываю» на вопрос «Вы лично испытываете или не испытываете недовольство, готовность участвовать в акциях протеста?», данные в % от всех опрошенных, ноябрь 2009 июль 2011 г.
Процент россиян, ответивших «Выросли» на вопрос «По Вашему мнению, за последний месяц цены на основные продукты, товары и услуги в целом выросли, снизились или почти не изменились», данные в % от всех опрошенных, ноябрь 2009 июль 2011 г.
SUBSIDIES
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Dynamics of per capita daily calorie intake in Egypt,1961 2007, kcal/capita/day 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000
Dynamics of life expectancy at birth in Egypt, 1970-1990, years 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Dynamics of crude death rate (per 1000) in Egypt, 1970-2009 15 13 11 9 7 5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 50 Dynamics of crude death and birth rates (per 1000) in Egypt, 1970-1990, log scale Death rate Birth rate 5
Population of Egypt, thousands, 10 000 BCE 2005 CE 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0-10000 -8000-6000 -4000-2000 0 2000
Population of Egypt, thousands, 1836-1990 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 Dynamics of absolute population growth rates, Egypt, 1960-1993 (thousands of people per year) 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 300 Dynamics of infant (per 1000 live births) and under-5 child mortality, Egypt, 1960-2009 250 200 150 100 50 Infant mortality Under-5 mortality 0
11,0% Dynamics of youth cohort (aged 20-24) proportion in the Egyptian population, 1990-2010 (with forecast till 2020) 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 Dynamics of young (20-24 years old) population in Egypt, thousands