Οικονοµικό Πανεπιστήµιο Αθηνών Τµήµα Οικονοµικής Επιστήµης Θέµατα Δυναµικής Οικονοµικής Καθηγητής Γιώργος Αλογοσκούφης Εαρινό Εξάµηνο 2015-16 Περιεχόµενο Μαθήµατος Στο µάθηµα αυτό αναλύονται δυναµικά υποδείγµατα οικονοµικής µεγέθυνσης, κατανάλωσης και επενδύσεων, οικονοµικών διακυµάνσεων, ανεργίας και πληθωρισµού και νοµισµατικής και δηµοσιονοµικής πολιτικής. Μεσα από τα υποδείγµατα αυτά αναδεικνύεται η δυνατότητα της οικονοµικής επιστήµης να αναλύει σηµαντικά κοινωνικά και οικονοµικά ζητήµατα και να συµβάλλει στο σχεδιασµό της οικονοµικής πολιτικής. Κατά τη διάρκεια του µαθήµατος διδάσκεται η χρήση µαθηµατικών µεθόδων διαφορικών εξισώσεων και δυναµικής βελτιστοποίησης, εξισώσεων διαφορών και στοχαστικών διαδικασιών που χρησιµοποιούνται ευρέως στην οικονοµική ανάλυση. Το µάθηµα απευθύνεται σε σπουδαστές που βρίσκονται στο όγδοο εξάµηνο σπουδών, έχουν περάσει το µάθηµα Μακροοικονοµική Θεωρία ΙΙ (το οποίο αποτελεί προαπαιτούµενο), και ενδιαφέρονται να εµβαθύνουν τις γνώσεις τους στη σύγχρονη µακροοικονοµική θεωρία. Το µάθηµα αυτό αποτελεί ιδανική προετοιµασία για µεταπτυχιακές σπουδές στην οικονοµική επιστήµη. Το προτεινόµενο σύγγραµµα είναι το βιβλίο του David Romer, Προχωρηµένη Μακροοικονοµική, Εκδόσεις Τυπωθήτω, 2006. Παράλληλα χρησιµοποιούνται πρωτογενείς πηγές και αναλυτικές σηµειώσεις των διαλέξεων, από το υπό έκδοση διδακτικό εγχειρίδιο του Γ. Αλογοσκούφη, Δυναµική Μακροοικονοµική, Αθήνα, 2016. Ο ιστότοπος του µαθήµατος, στον οποίο αναρτώνται σηµειώσεις, ασκήσεις και συµπληρωµατικό υλικό βρίσκεται στη διεύθυνση http://dynamicecon.wordpress.com. Ο ιστότοπος αυτός είναι προσβάσιµος και µέσω του, alogoskoufisg.com Η βαθµολόγηση του µαθήµατος θα βασιστεί σε µία δίωρη τελική εξέταση, καθώς και σε µία σειρά από προαιρετικές εργασίες και ασκήσεις.
Περιεχόµενο Μαθήµατος και Ενδεικτική Βιβλιογραφία 1. Αποταµιεύσεις, Επενδύσεις και Οικονοµική Μεγέθυνση: Το Υπόδειγµα του Solow. Romer (Κεφ. 1), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 2). Jones C. (2002), Introduction to Economic Growth, New York, Norton. Mankiw G., Romer D. and Weil D. (1992), A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, pp. 407-438. Solow R.M. (1956), A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, pp. 65-94. Swan T.W. (1956), Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation, Economic Record, 32, pp. 334-361. 3. Το Υπόδειγµα του Αντιπροσωπευτικού Νοικοκυριού. Romer (Κεφ. 2.Α), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 3). Cass D. (1965), Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation, Review of Economic Studies, 32, pp. 233-240. Fisher I. (1930), The Theory of Interest, New York, Macmillan. Koopmans T. (1965), On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth, in The Economic Approach to Development Planning, Amsterdam, Elsevier. Ramsey F. (1928), A Mathematical Theory of Saving, Economic Journal, 38, pp. 543-559. 4. Υποδείγµατα Επαλλήλων Γενεών. Romer (Κεφ. 2.Β), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 4). Blanchard O.J. (1985), Debts, Deficits and Finite Horizons, Journal of Political Economy, 93, pp. 223-47. Diamond P. (1965), National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model, American Economic Review, 55, pp. 1126-50. Samuelson P.A. (1958), An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest, with or without the Social Contrivance of Money, Journal of Political Economy, 66, pp. 467-82. Weil P. (1989), Overlapping Families of Infinitely-Lived Agents, Journal of Public Economics, 38, pp. 183-98. 5. Ο Εισοδηµατικός Περιορισµός της Κυβέρνησης και οι Μακροχρόνιες Επιπτώσεις της Δηµοσιονοµικής Πολιτικής. Romer (Κεφ. 11), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 5) M2
Barro R.J. (1974), Are Government Bonds Net Wealth, Journal of Political Economy, 82, pp. 1095-117. Blanchard O.J. (1985), Debts, Deficits and Finite Horizons, Journal of Political Economy, 93, pp. 223-47. Diamond P. (1965), National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model, American Economic Review, 55, pp. 1126-50. 6. Χρήµα και Οικονοµική Μεγέθυνση Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 6). Brock W. (1974), Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight, International Economic Review, 15, pp. 750-777. Sidrauski M. (1967), Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy, American Economic Review, 57, pp. 534-544. Tobin J. (1965) Money and Economic Growth, Econometrica, 33, pp. 671-684. Weil P. (1987), Permanent Budget Deficits and Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 20, pp. 393-410. Weil P. (1991), Is Money Net Wealth, International Economic Review, 32, pp. 37-53. 7. Υποδείγµατα Ενδογενούς Οικονοµικής Μεγέθυνσης. Romer (Κεφ. 3), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 7). Arrow K.J. (1962), The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing, Review of Economic Studies, 29, pp. 155-173. Jones C.I. (1995), R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 103, pp. 759-784. Lucas R.E. Jr (1988), On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, pp. 3-42. Mankiw G., Romer D. and Weil D. (1992), A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, pp. 407-437. Romer Paul (1986), Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 94, pp. 1002-1037. Romer P.M. (1990), Endogenous Technological Change, Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-S102. 8. Κατανάλωση και Επενδύσεις Romer (Κεφ. 8, 9), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 8, 9). Abel A. (1982), Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Temporary Tax Policies in a q model of Investment, Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, pp. 353-373. M3
Abel A. (1990), Consumption and Investment, in Friedman B. and Hahn F. (eds), Handbook of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam, North Holland. Friedman M. (1957), A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton N.J., Princeton University Press. Gould J. (1968), Adjustment Costs in the Theory of Investment of the Firm, Review of Economic Studies, 35, pp. 47-55. Hall R. (1978), Stochastic Implications of the life cycle permanent income hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, 86, pp. 971-987. Hall R. and Jorgenson D. (1967), Tax Policy and Investment Behavior, American Economic Review, 57, pp. 341-414. Hayashi F. (1982), Tobin s marginal q and average q: A neoclassical interpretation, Econometrica, 50, pp. 213-224. Lucas R. (1967), Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply, Journal of Political Economy, 75, pp. 321-334. Merton R.C. (1969), Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous Time Case, Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, pp. 247-257. Samuelson P.A. (1969), Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming, Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, pp. 239-246. 9. Η Αγορά Χρήµατος, το Επίπεδο Τιµών και ο Πληθωρισµός Romer (Κεφ. 11.9), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 10). Cagan P. (1956), The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in Friedman M. (ed), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago, University of Chicago Press. Clower R.W. (1967), A Reconsideration of the Microfoundations of Monetary Theory, Western Economic Journal, 6, pp. 1-9. Fischer S., Sahay R. and Vegh C. (2002), Modern Hyper and High Inflations, Journal of Economic Literature, 40, pp. 837-880. Lucas R.E. Jr (1980), Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy, in Kareken J.H. and Wallace N. (eds), Models of Monetary Economies, Minnesota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Lucas R.E. Jr. (1982), Interest Rates and Currency Prices in a Two Country World, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, pp. 335-359. Patinkin D. (1956), Money, Interest and Prices, (2nd Edition, 1965), New York, Haprer and Row. Samuelson P.A. (1958), An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest, with or without the Social Contrivance of Money, Journal of Political Economy, 66, pp. 467-82. 10. Η Νέα Κλασσική Θεωρία των Οικονοµικών Διακυµάνσεων Romer (Κεφ. 5), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 11). M4
King R.E. and Rebelo S.T. (1999), Resuscitating Real Business Cycles, Ch. 14 in Taylor J. B. and Woodford M. (1999), Handbook of Macroeconomics, (Volumes IA, IB, IC), Amsterdam, North-Holland. Campbell John Y. (1994), Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33, pp. 463-506. Kydland F.E. and Prescott E.C. (1982), Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica, 50, pp. 1345-1370. Long J.B. and Plosser C.I. (1983), Real Business Cycles, Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 39-69. Lucas R.E. Jr and Rapping L. (1969), Real Wages, Employment and Inflation, Journal of Political Economy, 77, pp. 721-754. Prescott E.C. (1986), Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement, Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 25, pp. 11-44. Alogoskoufis G. (1983), The Labor Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model, Journal of Monetary Economics, 11, pp. 117-128. Alogoskoufis G. (1987), On Intertemporal Substitution and Aggregate Labor Supply, Journal of Political Economy, 95, pp. 938-960. 11. Η Κεϋνσιανή Προσέγγιση και η Σχέση µεταξύ Ανεργίας και Πληθωρισµού Romer (Κεφ. 6.Α), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 12) Friedman M. (1968), The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, 58, pp. 1-17. Hicks J.R. (1937), Mr Keynes and the Classics: A Suggested Interpretation, Econometrica, 5, pp. 147-159. Keynes J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Macmillan, London. Phelps E.S. (1967), Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time, Economica, 34, pp. 254-281. Phillips A.W. (1958), The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Economica, 25, pp. 283-299. Samuelson P.A. and Solow R.M. (1960), Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy, American Economic Review, 50, pp. 177-194. 12. Η Νέα Κεϋνσιανή Θεωρία των Οικονοµικών Διακυµάνσεων Romer (Κεφ. 6.Β, 7), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 13, 14). Calvo G. (1983), Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 393-398. Christiano L.J., Eichenbaum M. and Evans C. (2005), Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, Journal of Political Economy, 113, pp. 1-45. M5
Fischer S. (1977), Long Term Contracts, Rational Expectations and the Optimal Money Supply Rule, Journal of Political Economy, 85, pp. 191-205. Goodfriend M. and King R.G. (1997), The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12, pp. 231-283. Gray Jo-Anna (1976), Wage Indexation: A Macroeconomic Approach, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2, pp. 221-235. King R.G. and Wolman A.L. (1996), Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 78, pp. 83-107. Rotenberg J. (1982), Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output, Review of Economic Studies, 44, pp. 517-531. Smets F. and Wouters R. (2003), An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Euro Area, Journal of the European Economic Association, 1, pp. 1123-1175. Taylor J. (1979), Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model, American Economic Review, 69, pp. 108-113. Yun T. (1996), Nominal Price Rigidity, Money Supply Endogeneity and Business Cycles, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, pp. 345-370. 13. Ανεργία και Σύζευξη στην Αγορά Εργασίας Romer (Κεφ. 9), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 15) Hall R.E. (1999), Labor Market Frictions and Employment Fluctuations Ch. 17 in Taylor J. B. and Woodford M. (1999), Handbook of Macroeconomics, (Volumes IA, IB, IC), Amsterdam, North-Holland. Mortensen D.T. and Pissarides C.A. (1999), Job Reallocation, Employment Fluctuations and Unemployment, Ch. 18 in Taylor J. B. and Woodford M. (1999), Handbook of Macroeconomics, (Volumes IA, IB, IC), Amsterdam, North-Holland. Pissarides C. (1985), Short Run Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies and Real Wages, American Economic Review, 75, pp. 676-690. Pissarides C. (2000), Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge Mass. Shimer R. (2005), The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies, American Economic Review, 95, pp. 25-49. 14. Αξιοπιστία, Πληθωρισµός και Νοµισµατική Πολιτική. Romer (Κεφ. 10), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 16) Barro R.J. and Gordon D.B. (1983), Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 101-121. Kydland F.E. and Prescott E.C. (1977), Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Journal of Political Economy, 85, pp. 473-492. Rogoff K. (1985), The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100, pp. 1169-1189. M6
Alogoskoufis G. (1994), On Inflation, Unemployment and the Optimal Exchange Rate Regime, in van der Ploeg F. (ed), Handbook of International Macroeconomics, Oxford, Blackwell. 15. Υποδείγµατα Δηµοσιονοµικής Πολιτικής Romer (Κεφ. 11), Αλογοσκούφης (Κεφ. 17) Barro R.J. (1979), On the Determination of Public Debt, Journal of Political Economy, 87, pp. 940-971. Alesina A. and Drazen A. (1991), Why are Stabilizations Delayed, American Economic Review, 81, pp. 1170-1188. Calvo G. (1988), Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations, American Economic Review, 78, pp. 647-661. Persson T. and Svensson L. (1989), Why a Stubborn Conservative Would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, pp. 325-345. Rogoff K. (1990), Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles, American Economic Review, 80, pp. 21-36. Tabellini G. and Alesina A. (1990), Voting on the Budget Deficit, American Economic Review, 80, pp. 37-49. M7