EU energy policy Strategies for renewable energy sources in Cyprus Dr. Andreas Poullikkas Electricity Authority of Cyprus 0
Contents Future energy systems Strategies for RES Towards 2020 Post 2020 - Towards 2050 Future energy economics Conclusions 1
Future energy systems 2
Climate change Climate change (global warming) today! Source: J.R. Petit et al, Nature, 1999. 3
Climate change Climate change (global warming) Source: U.S. National Climatic Data Center, 2001. 4
Climate change Expected increase of earth global temperature 1960-2060 Source: NASA, 2010. 5
Future energy systems EU energy system today* (coal, oil, nuclear) (natural gas) * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3 6
Future energy systems EU energy system in 2020-30* (coal, oil, natural gas) (coal, oil, nuclear, natural gas) * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3 7
Future energy systems EU energy system in 2040-50* (coal, nuclear, natural gas) (coal, nuclear, natural gas) * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3 8
Future energy systems Today Tomorrow: CCS, RES, DG and hydrogen storage, smartgrids Plug in vehicles Source: EC, 2007. Future power system 9
Future energy systems The Super Smart Grid after 2050 (may allow for 100% RES) 10
Future energy systems Main ingredients of future sustainable electric systems Large scale integration of renewable energy sources Distributed generation Carbon capture and storage Smartgrids Electric vehicles Storage devices Hydrogen gas cooling gasifier coal compressor water acid gas gas removal and shift cleaning CO2 compression steam generator syngas turbine ~ CO/H 2 steam steam O 2 exhaust condenser Air heat separat. recovery unit steam pump generat. N 2 combustion feed chamber water generator Development of new sustainable technologies and infrastructure air inlet turbine ~ 11
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus 12
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus Towards 2020 13
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus A case study A strategic plan for the promotion of renewable energy sources in the Cyprus electricity generation system* * A study undertaken under the direct supervision of Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA) 14
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus Main objective to assess the increase in the cost (or benefit) of electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for Cyprus to achieve its national RES energy target 15
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus Important factors considered Fuel avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration fuel consumption reduced CO 2 avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration CO 2 emissions reduced Conventional power system operating cost: by increasing RES-E penetration the conventional power system operating cost is increased due to the increased requirements of conventional reserve capacity 16
Optimization model* (hybrid model implementing IPP and WASP models) Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus * Poullikkas A., Kourtis G., Hadjipaschalis I., 2011, A hybrid model for the optimum integration of renewable technologies in power generation systems, Energy Policy. 17
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus RES-E penetration cost by 2020* (for Cyprus) Increase in electricity unit cost ( c/kwh) 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 2! COE = 0.001P RES² E + 0.0784P RES² E + 0.0036 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 RES penetration (%) * Poullikkas A., Kourtis G., Hadjipaschalis I., 2011, A hybrid model for the optimum integration of renewable technologies in power generation systems, Energy Policy. 18
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus RES-E installed capacity at 16% penetration* (for Cyprus) * Poullikkas A., Kourtis G., Hadjipaschalis I., 2011, A hybrid model for the optimum integration of renewable technologies in power generation systems, Energy Policy. 19
Energy production (GWh) Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus Cyprus energy production by 2020* 8000 7000 6000 5000 CSP with 6h storage Biomass PVs Wind New combined cycle plants 4000 3000 2000 1000 Vasilikos combined cycles Vasilikos gas turbine Moni gas turbines Dhekelia ICE Vasilikos steam plant Dhekelia steam plant 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Moni steam plant Year * Poullikkas A., Kourtis G., Hadjipaschalis I., 2011, A hybrid model for the optimum integration of renewable technologies in power generation systems, Energy Policy. 20
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus After 2020? 21
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus RES energy contribution to 50% by 2041 (preliminary results) 11000 10000 9000 PHES CSP with 6h storage Biomass Energy production (GWh) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 PVs Wind New combined cycle plants Vasilikos combined cycles Vasilikos gas turbine Moni gas turbines Dhekelia ICE Vasilikos steam plant 1000 Dhekelia steam plant Moni steam plant 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Year 22
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus 50% RES incremental cost by 2041 (preliminary results) Increased RES-E, PHES 530MW 0.81 Increased RES-E, PHES 330MW 0.72 Scenario Increased RES-E, PHES 200MW 0.63 Increased RES-E, PHES 130MW 0.61 Increased RES-E 0.52 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 Difference from BAU RES-E ( c/kwh) 23
Renewable energy strategies for Cyprus Towards hydrogen economy (Cyprus year 2050) 24
Future Energy Economics 25
Future energy economics Power generation cost (year 2010)* Figure 1: Power generation cost (year 2010) CO2 trading cost Power generation cost ( c/kwh) O&M cost Fuel cost Capital cost Combined cycle with natural gas Wind Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 26
Future energy economics Power generation cost (year 2020-30)* Figure 2: Power generation cost (year 2020-30) Power generation cost ( c/kwh) CO2 trading cost O&M cost Fuel cost Capital cost Fully developed CCS systems and/or CO 2 trading scheme Fully developed RES promotion mechanisms Combined cycle with natural gas Wind Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 27
Future energy economics Power generation cost (year 2040-50)* Figure 3: Power generation cost (year 2040-50) Power generation cost ( c/kwh) Increased environmental cost Fully developed energy storage systems CO2 trading cost O&M cost Fuel cost Capital cost Combined cycle with natural gas Wind Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 28
Energy additional cost ( ) Future energy cost* The EU energy policy Action after 2020 Action after 2030-40 Action today 0 Today 2020 2030 2040 2050 * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 29
Summary 30
Summary Main ingredients of future sustainable electric systems Renewable energy sources Smartgirds Zero emission power plants Storage devices Integration of RES-E today: additional COE vision: competitive to conventional systems 31