This paper has been prepared to enable the MNB to fulfil its monetary policy obligations and support the compilation of monetary statistics on the exchange rate exposure of companies. This paper has been prepared to enable the MNB to fulfil its monetary policy obligations and support the compilation of monetary statistics on the exchange rate exposure of companies.
r,
exchange rates 80 100 120 140 160 2005m1 2006m1 m1 2008m1 2009m1 m1 2011m1 2012m1 EUR 2005 january =100 CHF,
# # # #
loan status Net exporters Net importers trade status No traders 0.2.4.6.8 1 FX debt HUF debt No debt Net exporter Net Importer No trade 0.2.4.6.8 1 FX debt HUF debt No debt
Credit Empl. Credit HUF Real VA Credit FX Inv. 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 No trade, FX Netexp, FX Netimp, FX Others No trade, FX Netexp, FX Netimp, FX Others '
< < <
,,, ;, ' a '
2008 2009 Net exporter Net importer Non trader 0.2.4.6.15.1.05 0 FX HUF none FX HUF none FX HUF none profit loss exit from to 2009 from to
2009 0 50 100 150 Net exporter Net importer Non trader Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX debt HUF debt no debt
2006 2008 0.01.02.03 Net exporter Net importer Non trader Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX debt HUF debt FX debt HUF debt FX debt HUF debt 0 5 10 15 Net exporter Non trader Net importer Net exporter Non trader Net importer Percentage change 30 20 10 0 Share in Share in Net exporter Non trader Net exporter Non trader Net importer Net importer
Billion HUFs 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX in BoP HUF in CR FX in CR 0 500 1000 1500 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 100 200 300 400 500 2005 2006 2008 2009 year HUF Net Exp. Net Imp. No trade 2005 2006 2008 2009 year EUR Net Exp. Net Imp. No trade 2005 2006 2008 2009 year CHF Net Exp. Net Imp. No trade
0 500 1000 1500 2005 2006 2008 2009 year HUF FX debt HUF debt No debt 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2005 2006 2008 2009 year EUR FX debt HUF debt No debt 0 100 200 300 400 500 2005 2006 2008 2009 year CHF FX debt HUF debt No debt
number of loans 40 50 60 70 80 90 2005m1 2006m1 m1 2008m1 2009m1 m1 2011m1 months HUF maturity CHF maturity EUR maturity +, = α +γ +β +μ +ε / α + α + >
+ μ = = = = = ={,, } ={ } ={,, } α α
α α α α 1 year PD 2 year PD 0.005.01.015 2008 2009 2008 2009 Export Import No Trade α α α =α
α
FX debt HUF debt FX debt HUF debt.2.1 0.1.2.1 0.1 Net Exporters Non traders Net Exporters Non traders Net importers Net importers Net Exporters Non traders Net Exporters Non traders Net importers Net importers 2008 to 2009 2008 to 2008 to 2009 2008 to α, α, α, =α,
a_fx a_huf.03.02.01 0.01 2008 2009 a_fx a_huf.03.02.01 0.01 2008 2009 Export Import No Trade Export Import No Trade x axis is t+j x axis is t+j, j is always 1 α α α =α
MNB
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR Total Loans 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR HUF short HUF loan short 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR HUF long HUF loan long 0 500 1000 1500 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR FX short FX loan short 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR FX long FX loan long
2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 Billion HUFs 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Banks Financial inst. Spec. Saving banks HUF in CR FX in CR Billion HUFs 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2005 2006 2008 2009 2005 2006 2008 2009 Short Long HUF EUR CHF USD Other
2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Loan Framework contr. Accounts receivable Leasing HUF EUR CHF USD Other # #
Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services 0 200400600800 0 200400600800 0 200400600800 Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 1 Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services
FX debt, net export HUF debt, net export No debt, net export FX debt, net export HUF debt, net export No debt, net export FX debt, net import HUF debt, net import No debt, net import FX debt, net import HUF debt, net import No debt, net import FX debt, no trade HUF debt, no trade No debt, no trade FX debt, no trade HUF debt, no trade No debt, no trade 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 Net exp () Net Imp () No trade () not reported () 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 FX debt () HUF debt () No debt () not reported ()
α α α >α
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