- / / / ( ) // : // :.,...,,.,,..,. e-mail: m-razavi@cc.sbu.ac.ir e-mail: r-moshrefi@cc.sbu.ac.ir

., /. /,,,,, :. /..

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,.... -,... -.... -.. Rate -. 1. Deaton l. Michael, James J. Winebrake (1999) P. 28. 2. In flow. 3. Out flow.

/,..,,...-. : (. (.. (...-. ( ",(). 1. Formal Models. 2. Empirical Analysis. 3. Subsistence Sector.. ().

",() ". "- (.... " ".," ". " ".. ". " (,..,... -. 2. Forrester Jay, W. & Wright-Allen (1971).

/ ".,. MIT ". ". ",. -,...,,. ()..,.. 1. Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi (1987)...

,,..,.,...-,. (). : (Population) (Education) (Production) (Consumption) (Investment) (Government) (Money & Inflation) (Foreign Trade) (Oil ) (Labor Supply) (Labor Demand) (Okun s Law). /..

/...- INVESTMENT CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT LABOR DEMAND CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT PRODUCTION LABOR DEMAND MONEY & INFLATION PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MONEY & INFLATION LABOUR SUPPLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOREIGN TRADE FOREIGN TRADE OIL OIL LABOUR SUPPLY POPULATION POPULATION EDUCATION EDUCATION. ( ).,

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/. - POPULATION Graph 1 Table 1 birth m men pop death m mg fraction E total pop birth + total pop OBS total pop f g f raction birth f women pop death f.- POPULATION Graph 1 Table 1 birth m men pop death m mg f raction E total pop birth + total pop OBS total pop + total birth asf r 10 14 asf r 14 19 asf r 20 24 asf r 25 29 asf r 30 34 asf r 35 39 asf r 40 44 asf r 45 49 asf r 50 54 b 10 14 b 15 19 b 20 24 b 25 29 b 30 34 b 35 39 b 40 44 b 45 49 b 50 54 f g f raction birth f women pop death f

.- population men pop birth m death m Table 1 Graph 1 And... mp mg 0 4f raction mp 5 9 mp 60 64 mp up65 birth m' aging1 m aging2 m aging12 m aging13 m death m'''''''''''''' death m' death m'' death m''''''''''''' dr1 m dr2 m ' + dr13 m dr14 m total pop fg fraction women pop birth f death f Men pop Women pop My fraction Fg fraction Mp xy Fp xy Total birth Birth m Birth f Death m Death f Dr m Dr f Aging Asfrxy Bxy y X y X y X y X. *

/. EDUCATION e m1014 e m1519 e m2024 e m2529 e m3034 e m35up e m c1014 e m c1519 e m c2024 e m c2529 e m c3034 e m c35up mp 10 14 mp 15 19 mp 20 24 mp 25 29 mp 30 34 + mp 35 39 mp 40 44 mp 45 49 mp 50 54 mp 55 59 mp 60 64 mp up65 mp 35up g m c1519 g m c2024 g m c25 29 g m c3034 g m c3539 g m c4044 g m c4549 g m c5054 g m c5559 g m c6064 g m c65up g m1519 g m2024 g m2529 g m3034 g m3539 g m4044 g m4549 g m5054 g m5559 g m6064 g m65up e f 1014 e f 1519 e f 2024 e f 2529 e f 3034 e f 35up e f c1014 e f c1519 e f c2024 e f c2529 e f c3034 f p 10 14 f p 15 19 f p 20 24 f p 25 29 fp 30 34 g f 1519 g f 2024 g f 2529 g f 3034 e f c35up + wp 35upw f p 35 39 f p 40 44 f p 45 49 f p 50 54 f p 55 59 f p 60 64 f p up65 g f 3539 g f 4044 g f 4549 g f 5054 g f 5559 g f 6064 g f 65up g f c1519 g f c2024 g f c25 30 g f c3034 g f c3539 g f c4044 g f c4549 g f c5054 g f c5559 g f c6064 g f c65up em xy ef xy emc xy efc xy gm xy gf xy gmc xy gfc xy y X y x y x y y x y x y x y x y x

.- PRODUCTION L IN V IN K IN E V IN OBS VIN + CAPITAL I IN D IN D IN R LS Graph 3 Table 3 L AG V AG E V AG OBS V AG P CGDPF K AG P CGDPF G I AG D AG CGDPF D AG R CTIN L SE K SE V SE OBS V SE CGDPF G G DIFFERENCE I SE D SE E V SE D SE R NET IN TAX L OI I OI K OI D OI V OI E V OI OBS V OI CGDPM D OI R E PRODUCTION OBS CGDPM I IN I AG I SE I OI K IN K AG A SE K OI D IN D AG D SE D OI D IN R D AG R D SE R D OI R V IN V AG V SE V OI CGDPF

/ CGDPM CGDPF G P CGDPF P CGDPF G G DIFFERENCE CAPITAL, ().,.. (). ()..., ().,.. ()..,...

.- CONSUMPTION TCUREX LnTCUREX\CPI OBS LnCGC LnCGC CPI LnCGC D lag2'' drain2'' E LnCGC CPI LnMS Table 9 TAXREVENUE + LnCPC\POP total pop CGDPM lag2' LnCPC\POP D drain2' E LnCPC\POP OBS LnCPC\POP Ln CGC DELTA LnCGC LnCPC\POP LnCPC\POP D LNCPC\POP

/.- INVESTMENT CGDPM E LnCINP OBS LnCINP LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD LnCINP LnINTIM$\CPIOECD Graph 4 CTIN E CTIN OBS CTIN LnCING TGDEXPN CPI Table 6 lag4' LnCING D drain4' E LnCING OBS LnCING CTIN LnCTIN CINP LnCING LnCING D CTIN LnCING

. - GOVERNMENT CGDPM OBS TCUREX OILX$ OBS OTHREVENUE OIL TRANS FACTOR OTHREVENUE E OTHREVENUE P TCUREX E TCUREX CGDPM OILREVENUE OBS TGDEXPN OBS OILREVENUE OTHREVENUE D P E OILREVENUE OBS TAXREVENUE lag3' TCUREX D drain3' E TGDEXPN TGDEXPN lag3'''' drain3'''' TAXREVENUE TOTREVENUE E TAXREVENUE SPEPAY lag3''' TGDEXPN D drain3''' E TOTREVENUE lag3'' TAXREVENUE D drain3'' OBS TOTREVENUE TOTEXPN OBS TOTEXPN E TOTEXPN BD Table 13 TCUREX TCUREX D TGDEXPN TGDEXPN D SPEPAY TOTEXPN TAXREVENUE OILREVENUE OTHREVENUE OIL TRANS FACTOR TOTREVENUE BD TCUREX TGDEXPN

/.- MONEY & INFLATION OBS CPI CPI Graph 11 Table 7 P OBS LnV LnMS E CPI LnP LnCPI LnMS growth PGROWTH LnV DELTA LnMS DELTA LnV E LnV OBS MB E MB E NGOVDEBT OTHERMB DELTA LnCPI OBS NGOVDEBT MB CGDPM LnV D NGOVDEBT lag7' drain7' NGGROWTH NFA OER LnPM DELTA NGOVDEBT IM$ CPIOECD SBD BD lag7''' NFA D drain7''' TX$ lag7'' LnPM D drain7'' OBS NFA E NFA E LnPM OBS LnPM Ln MS Delta LnMS MB OTHERMB NGOVDEBT DELTA NGOVDEBT SBD CPI P Ln V VD OER Ln PM Ln PMD NEA DELTA NFA () LnMS NGOVDEBT ( ) ) V Ln PMD NFA

, ().,..., (),..,,,.,( ) ().. ( ).. ( ),.. ().. - - -. -,..

/. - OIL OBS LnDC\POP E LnDC\POP OBS OILX$ POIL CGDPM + LnDC\POP total pop OILX$ E OILX$ DC P5 LnDC\POP D Table 4 RES lag6' drain6' EXPLORATION CRUD LnCRUD LnCRUD D K OI lag6'' drain6'' OILX$ POIL DC Ln DC\POP Ln CRUD RES P5.- FOREIGN TRADE TX$ OILX$ TB$ IM$ Graph 5 Table 11 LnCPC\POP CPIOECD LnCONIM$\CPIOECD OBS LnCONIM$\CPIOECD E LnCONIM$\CPIOECD LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD OBS LnINTIM$\CPIOECD TX$ CPIOECD E LnINTIM$\CPIOECD LnCONIM$\CPIOECD D TX$ LnINTIM$\CPIOECD ER CPIOECD\CPI lag5''''' drain5''''' CPIOECD CGDPM LnINTIM$\CPIOECD D ER CPIOECD\CPI lag5''' LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD drain5''' CPI LnNOX$\CPIOECD LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD D GDPOECD LnER LnBMER LnNOX$\CPIOECD D lag5' drain5' LnER D lag5'''' drain5'''' OER OBS LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD E LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD lag5'' drain5'' E LnNOX$\CPIOECD OBS LnNOX$\CPIOECD

TB$ TX$ IM$ CPIOECD GDPOECD INTIM$ CAPIM$ CONIM$ NOX$ OER BMER ERCPIOECD\CPI ER OECD OECD. - LABOUR SUPPLY fp 10 14 f p 15 19 LSF10 14 FF1014 FF1519 e f 1014 e f 1519 e m1014 e m1519 MM1014 MM1519 LSM10 14 mp 10 14 mp 15 19 f p 20 24 LSF15 19 FF2024 MM2024 LSM15 19 mp 20 24 f p 25 29 LSF20 24 FF2529 MM2554 LSM20 24 + f p 30 34 LSF25 29 FF3034 Table 2 MM5564 LSM25 54 mp2554 + f p 35 39 LSF3034 FF3539 MM65UP LSM55 64 PM 55 64 mp up65 f p 40 44 LSF3539 FF4044 LSM65UP + + LSF4044 FF4554 LSF f p 4554 + LSF4554 FF5564 + LS FP 55 64 LSF5564 FF65UP LSM fp up65 LSF65UP

/.- LABOR DEMAND V AG' V IN' V AG V IN lag9' drain9' CPI lag9'''''' drain9'''''' L AG E L AG E L IN L IN K AG K IN L AG D OBS L AG OBS L IN L IN D Table 12 CPI lag9'' drain9'' lag9''''' drain9''''' W IN V OI V OI' LD V SE V SE' lag9''' drain9''' Graph 9 lag9'''''''' drain9'''''''' L OI E L OI E L SE L SE K SE K OI L OI D OBS L OI OBS L SE L SE D CPI lag9'''' drain9'''' lag9''''''''' drain9''''''''' L AG L IN L SE L OI APK AG APK OI W IN

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/.. :. (OIL TRANS FACTOR) (CPIOECD)OECD (RES) (POIL) (GDPOECD)OECD (OTHERMB) (EXPLORATION) (Mg (OER) (SBD) (dr xy f, dr xy m) Fraction) (asfr xy) (efc xy, emc xy)..- (... / / ( ),.(() ()) -. ()....

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...,..,. ()..- (r) 0/999 0/973 0/88 0/997 0/947 0/974 0/987.. : 1. Sterman, D. John (2000).

/ H 0 : μ = μ S H1: μ μ S A A A: Actual S: Simulated 2 2 S σ A. σ =. t-student, t = ( X S P S X I n S A ) 0 1 + n A S P = ( n A 2 1) S A + ( ns 1) S n + n 2 1 2 2 S + S n A n 2 -t ().. t.- ) ( ( ) ( ) ) ( () 12.110 25 82630 88427 2521 17397 62293333 μ A 12.070 25 83236 86182 2509 17128 62187450 μ S 0.362 0.309 0.069 7.1 8 0.003 29343 28677-0.012 30295 29460 0.044 113 75 0.068 991 761 0.175 1679520 1653622-0.037 S A S S -t. / % / %

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/,. : DELTAU= -1/128 *DELTAG (-10/8) R 2 =0/92 DW=2/28 DELTAU DELTAG,,. () /,. /. /, ( ) / ( ). / /.. /, -. / - /.. / /

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/...()..()....().,,. :.()...()..-..(). -......().,..().,. Deaton l. Michael, James J. (1999). Winebrake, Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems. Springer, P. 28. Forrester, Jay W. (1971). World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press Inc. Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi. (1987). Startegy of Economic Development In IRAN: A Case of Develompent Based on Exhaustible Resources, Massachasetts Institute of Technology. Sterman, D. John, (2000). Business Dynamics: System Thinking For a Complex World. Mc. Graw Hill- Higher Education.