OVERVIEW 27/11/ Sector Analyst: Samvel Shahnazaryan (MBA) Tel: 6949313366 Basic Materials Industry Industrial Metals & Minerals Mrk Cap 777,567 mm Employees 7910 Last Trade 3 Price Range (52 week) Average Volume Shares Outstanding Enterprise Value (Est) 1.23 3.44 259,190 (mm) 2.412(mm) Viohalco S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminum, copper, cables, and steel and steel pipe products worldwide. Its Aluminum segment offers aluminum rolled products, including coils, circles, strips, sheets, and foils for various applications; extruded products for architectural, automotive, and industrial applications; coils for lithographic printing; and architectural and industrial aluminum profiles. Its Copper segment provides copper and copper alloy products, including copper and brass tubes, copper strips, sheets and plates, and copper bus bars and rods. The Steel segment offers long, flat, and downstream steel products. It Steel Pipes segment provides steel pipes for the transportation of natural gas, oil, and water networks; and steel hollow sections, which are used in construction projects. The Cable segment manufactures power, telecommunication, and submarine cables, as well as enameled wires and compounds. Its Real Estate segment redevelops industrial real estate properties in Greece and Bulgaria. The Technology and R&D segment focuses on producing products and solutions for the optimization of industrial and business processes. Its Recycling segment trades in and processes secondary raw materials; undertakes waste management and environmental operations; and provides services to industry, consumers, municipalities, and corporations. The company serves various markets, such as building and construction, energy and telecommunication networks, oil and gas, transportation, marine, automotive, food and pharmaceutical packaging, heating and air conditioning, lithography, and other industrial applications. Viohalco S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. Highlight & Recent Developments Consolidated EBITDA up at 169.7 million euros Viohalco nominates Efstratios Thomadakis as CFO Viohalxo FY EBITDA up at 231.7 Viohalco s unit absorbs Corinth Pipeworks and Hellenic Cables
Assumptions Assumptions Capex 3,40% EBITDA Margin 8,72% ERM (Market Risk Premium) 5,40% beta 1,20 g 2,00% Risk Free (10y GGB) 5,50% Kd 5,20% K 12,30% Tax Rate 29% Dividend Tax Rate 15% Debt Tax Rate 10% Share Price as in 27/11/ 3,00 Number of Shares 259,189 Market Cap 777,567 Share Float Shareholders Structure Evangelos Stassinopoulos 110.959.137 42,81% Nikolaos Stassinopoulos 83.640.536 32,27% Retail 64.590.088 24,92% Total 259.189.761 100% Free Float 64.590.088 25%
Ratios Mrk Price as in 27/11/ 3,00 Valuation 27/11/ Shares 259,19 P/E neg Equity 1.148,24 P/BV 0,68 Earnings -6,93 EV/Sales 0,53 EV 1.639,25 EV/EBITDA 7,08 Sales 3.112,65 EV/EBIT 14,90 EBITDA 231,68 Net Debt/EBITDA 6,59 EBIT 110,05 Net Debt/Equity 16,87 DIVIDEND 0,00 Dividend yield 0,00 EPS -0,03 Mrk Cap 777,57 Total Liabilities 2.477,97 MINORITY 0,00 Current Assets 1.616,29 Mrk Price as estimated e 3,73 Valuation e Shares 259,19 P/E 11,85 Equity 1.226,69 P/BV 0,79 Earnings 81,54 EV/Sales 0,40 EV 1.241,26 EV/EBITDA 4,58 Sales 3.104,68 EV/EBIT 8,22 EBITDA 270,73 Net Debt/EBITDA 5,34 EBIT 150,97 Net Debt/Equity 8,83 DIVIDEND 0,00 Dividend yield 0,00 EPS 0,31 Mrk Cap 965,88 Total Liabilities 2.276,24 MINORITY 0,00 Current Assets 2.000,86 Ratios 2016 e Current Ratio 1,92 1,75 Gross Profit Margin 8,48% 8,25% ROA -0,19% 2,33% ROCE -0,32% 3,44% ROE -1,16% 14,53% Debt Ratio 94,50% 96,27% P/E neg 11,85
(in EUR thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Assets Non-current assets Property, plant and equipment 1.692,668 1.759,024 1.814,588 1.783,156 1.762,359 1.779,782 1.784,971 1.777,567 1.776,170 Goodwill and intangible assets 19,701 21,278 23,598 24,657 22,309 22,960 23,381 23,327 22,994 Investment property 125,395 141,497 156,012 155,553 144,614 149,419 151,400 150,246 148,920 Investments in equity accounted investees 23,416 18,495 16,452 17,594 18,989 17,883 17,729 18,049 18,163 Other investments 65,765 50,366 7,645 7,658 32,859 24,632 18,198 20,837 24,131 Derivatives 0,295 0,887 0,000 0,253 0,359 0,375 0,247 0,308 0,322 Other receivables 7,448 7,624 8,033 6,320 7,356 7,333 7,261 7,068 7,254 Deferred tax assets 16,330 5,318 11,664 14,731 12,011 10,931 12,334 12,502 11,944 1.951,018 2.004,489 2.037,992 2.009,922 2.000,855 2.013,315 2.015,521 2.009,903 2.009,898 Current assets Inventories 773,729 860,709 786,242 857,419 819,525 830,974 823,540 832,864 826,726 Trade and other receivables 464,333 535,085 538,165 576,187 528,443 544,470 546,816 548,979 542,177 Derivatives 2,407 9,454 3,654 7,933 5,862 6,726 6,044 6,641 6,318 Other investments 0,282 0,818 2,138 1,633 1,218 1,452 1,610 1,478 1,439 Income tax receivables 2,079 2,366 1,246 1,332 1,756 1,675 1,502 1,566 1,625 Cash and cash equivalents 173,401 99,612 136,296 171,784 145,273 138,241 147,899 150,799 145,553 1.416,231 1.508,044 1.467,741 1.616,288 1.502,076 1.523,537 1.527,411 1.542,328 1.523,838 Total assets 3.367,249 3.512,533 3.505,733 3.626,210 3.502,931 3.536,852 3.542,932 3.552,231 3.533,736 Equity Share capital 104,996 104,996 117,666 141,894 117,388 120,486 124,359 126,032 122,066 Share premium 432,201 432,201 453,822 457,571 443,949 446,886 450,557 449,741 447,783 Translation reserve -11,524-12,755-13,968-15,761-13,502-13,997-14,307-14,392-14,049 Other reserves 439,411 363,003 328,622 392,476 380,878 366,245 367,055 376,663 372,710 Retained earnings 27,858 32,768 42,353 81,527 46,127 50,694 55,175 58,381 52,594 Total equity attributable to owners of the Company 992,942 920,213 928,495 1.057,707 974,839 970,314 982,839 996,425 981,104 Non-controlling interest 347,748 322,792 246,349 90,533 251,856 227,882 204,155 193,606 219,375 Total equity 1.340,690 1.243,005 1.174,844 1.148,240 1.226,695 1.198,196 1.186,994 1.190,031 1.200,479 Lialabilities Non-current liabilities Loans and borrowings 944,135 944,599 895,863 804,723 897,330 885,629 870,886 864,642 879,622 Derivatives 0,285 0,148 0,543 4,366 1,336 1,598 1,961 2,315 1,802 Employee benefits 20,018 25,675 25,405 26,868 24,492 25,610 25,594 25,641 25,334 Grants 45,305 48,632 50,549 46,468 47,739 48,347 48,276 47,707 48,017 Provisions 4,063 3,093 3,009 3,863 3,507 3,368 3,437 3,544 3,464 Other amounts payable 11,476 23,227 17,924 12,477 16,276 17,476 16,038 15,567 16,339 Deferred tax liabilities 162,357 138,091 151,365 147,763 149,894 146,778 148,950 148,346 148,492 1.187,639 1.183,465 1.144,658 1.046,528 1.140,573 1.128,806 1.115,141 1.107,762 1.123,070 Current liabilities Loans and borrowings 503,305 638,848 739,139 894,491 693,946 741,606 767,295 774,335 744,295 Trade and other payables 319,841 430,718 419,201 509,605 419,841 444,841 448,372 455,665 442,180 Current tax liabilities 12,003 4,857 20,534 17,073 13,617 14,020 16,311 15,255 14,801 Derivatives 3,094 11,225 5,932 9,858 7,527 8,636 7,988 8,502 8,163 Provisions 0,677 0,415 1,425 0,415 0,733 0,747 0,830 0,681 0,748 838,920 1.086,063 1.186,231 1.431,442 1.135,664 1.209,850 1.240,797 1.254,438 1.210,187 Total liabilities 2.026,559 2.269,528 2.330,889 2.477,970 2.276,237 2.338,656 2.355,938 2.362,200 2.333,258 Total equity and liabilities 3.367,249 3.512,533 3.505,733 3.626,210 3.502,931 3.536,852 3.542,932 3.552,231 3.533,736
Estimated Financial Statment Profit & Loss (thousands. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Sales 2.885,071 2.943,462 3.274,735 3.112,654 3.104,682 3.124,962 3.131,394 3.122,248 3.123,778 % change 2,02% 11,25% -4,95% -0,26% 0,65% 0,21% -0,29% 0,05% Cost of Goods sold 2.710,089 2.737,809 2.968,241 2.848,582 2.848,476 2.861,394 2.865,641 2.859,228 2.860,510 % change 1,02% 8,42% -4,03% 0,00% 0,45% 0,15% -0,22% 0,04% Gross Profit 174,982 205,653 229,627 264,072 256,206 263,568 265,753 263,020 263,268 % change 17,53% 11,66% 15,00% -2,98% 2,87% 0,83% -1,03% 0,09% % margin 6,07% 6,99% 7,01% 8,48% 8,25% 8,43% 8,49% 8,42% 8,43% EBITDA 4,072 119,624 193,753 231,680 270,728 272,497 273,058 272,260 272,393 % change 2837,72% 61,97% 19,57% 16,85% 0,65% 0,21% -0,29% 0,05% % margin 0,14% 4,06% 5,92% 7,44% 8,72% 8,72% 8,72% 8,72% 8,72% Depreciation 112,738 115,552 125,007 125,744 119,760 121,516 123,007 122,507 121,697 EBIT -108,666 4,072 73,376 110,052 150,968 150,981 150,051 149,753 150,696 % change -103,75% 1701,96% 49,98% 37,18% 0,01% -0,62% -0,20% 0,63% % margin -3,77% 0,14% 2,24% 3,54% 4,86% 4,83% 4,79% 4,80% 4,82% Financials 83,372 94,105 110,160 103,296 49,503 59,101 64,721 72,796 79,364 PBT -192,038-90,033-36,784 6,756 101,465 91,880 85,330 76,957 71,332 % change -53,12% -59,14% -118,37% 1401,85% -9,45% -7,13% -9,81% -7,31% % margin -6,66% -3,06% -1,12% 0,22% 3,27% 2,94% 2,72% 2,46% 2,28% Taxes/Other 41,893-2,490 26,616 13,685 19,926 14,434 18,665 16,678 17,426 Net Income -233,931-87,543-63,400-6,929 81,539 77,446 66,665 60,279 53,906 % change -62,58% -27,58% -89,07% - 1276,78% -5,02% -13,92% -9,58% -10,57% % margin -8,11% -2,97% -1,94% -0,22% 2,63% 2,48% 2,13% 1,93% 1,73% Estimated Cash Flows Cash Flows (m. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Net Income -233,931-87,543-63,400-6,929 81,539 77,446 66,665 60,279 53,906 Plus: Deprications & Amortizations 112,738 115,552 125,007 125,744 119,760 121,516 123,007 122,507 121,697 Plus: Δ Provisions 0,121-1,232 0,926-0,156-0,038-11,767-13,665-7,379 15,308 Plus: Payable Taxes 4,838-7,146 15,677-3,461-3,456 0,403 2,291-1,056-0,454 Gross Cash Flow -116,234 19,631 78,210 115,198 197,805 187,598 178,297 174,351 190,457 Plus: Δ Trade and other Payables -6,982 110,877-11,517 90,404-89,764 25,000 3,531 7,293-13,485 Less: Δ Trade Receivables -36,675 70,752 3,080 38,022-47,745 16,027 2,346 2,163-6,802 Less: Δ Other Receivables 0,230 0,176 0,409-1,713 1,036-0,023-0,073-0,193 0,187 Less: Δ Inventories -61,480 86,980-74,467 71,177-37,894 11,449-7,434 9,324-6,139 Δ Working Capital -90,943 47,031 59,461 17,082 5,161 2,453-8,691 4,001 0,731 Operating Cash Flow -25,291-27,400 137,671 98,116 192,644 185,145 186,988 170,350 189,726 Less: CAPEX (Fixed Assets) 154,372 195,997 206,032 118,289 105,559 106,249 106,467 106,156 106,208 Less: Δ Investments 78,380-4,218-30,249 0,696 15,657-4,528-4,606 1,805 2,082 Free Cash Flow - 258,043-227,615-38,112-20,869 71,428 83,425 85,127 62,389 81,436 Less: Dividends 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Plus: Δ Equity 65,737 0,000 34,291 27,977-38,128 6,035 7,544 0,857-5,923 Pluss: Δ Debt 77,720 136,007 51,555 64,212-107,938 35,959 10,947 0,795-15,059 Δ Cash & Equivalents 29,150-73,789 36,684 35,488-26,511-7,032 9,657 2,901-5,246 Cash & Equvalents 173,401 99,612 136,296 171,784 145,273 138,241 147,899 150,799 145,553
Estimated Cash Flows DCF (EUR thousands) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f Revenues 2885,071 2943,462 3274,735 3112,654 3104,682 3124,962 3131,394 3122,248 3123,778 EBITDA 4,072 119,624 193,753 231,680 270,728 272,497 273,058 272,260 272,393 EBIT*(1- Tax Rate) -77,153 2,891 52,097 78,137 107,187 107,196 106,536 106,325 106,994 CAPEX 154,372 195,997 206,032 118,289 105,559 106,249 106,467 106,156 106,208 Depreciations & Amortizations 112,738 115,552 125,007 125,744 119,760 121,516 123,007 122,507 121,697 CAPEX - Depreciations 41,634 80,445 81,025-7,455-14,201-15,267-16,539-16,350-15,489 ΔWC -90,943 47,031 59,461 17,082 5,161 2,453-8,691 4,001 0,731 Reinvestment -49,309 127,476 140,486 9,627-9,040-12,814-25,230-12,349-14,758 Reinvestment (abs) 49,309-127,476-140,486-9,627 9,040 12,814 25,230 12,349 14,758 Free Cash Flow -27,844-124,585-88,389 68,510 116,227 120,010 131,767 118,674 121,752 124,187 126,671 129,204 131,788 134,424 WACC 6,96% 6,65% 6,63% 6,60% 6,70% 6,65% 6,64% 6,65% 6,66% Discounted Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Discounted FCF 108,93 105,52 108,64 91,74 88,20 84,14 80,43 76,89 73,50 70,26 Discount Rate 93,7% 87,9% 82,4% 77,3% 72,4% 67,8% 63,5% 59,5% 55,8% 52,3% Υπολογισμός WACC (EUR εκατ.) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Cash & Equivalents 173,401 99,612 136,296 171,784 145,273 138,241 147,899 150,799 145,553 Short Debt 503,305 638,848 739,139 894,491 693,946 741,606 767,295 774,335 744,295 Long Debt 944,135 944,599 895,863 804,723 897,330 885,629 870,886 864,642 879,622 Net Cash/(Debt), Current Loan Value 1274,039 1483,835 1498,706 1527,430 1446,003 1488,993 1490,283 1488,177 1478,364 FCFn 134,424 g 2,00% WACC 7% TV 2915,182 PV of TV 1523,643 Debt & Equity 2051,606 2261,402 2276,273 2304,997 2223,570 2266,560 2267,850 2265,744 2255,931 g FCFn WACC 6,96% 6,65% 6,63% 6,60% 6,70% 6,65% 6,64% 6,65% 6,66% 2% 2026f
Methods Prices Weight DCF 3,73 50% P/E e 11,85 25% EV/EBITDA 4,58 25% Average Price 5,97 Expected Return 99,03% PV Cash Flows 888,236 PV of TV 1523,643 EV 2411,879 Net Debt 1446,003 Fair Value Equity 965,877 Number of Shares 259,189 Target Price 3,73 Price 3,00 Expected Return 24,22% BUY INCREASE HOLD DECREASE SELL Consensus DO IT DO IT DO IT DON'T DO IT DON'T DO IT
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