: Marshall2Lerner (ML) ML. (cointegrating VAR), ,ML ,,ML. (Boyd,2001) Houthakker and Magee (1969) : Rose and Yellen (1989) G 7

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Βάλιος Μανιάκης
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1 : ( ) :Marshall2Lerer (ML),, ML (coitegratig VAR), ,,ML ; J : ML J 1998,, 2002,,,,,,,,,, Marshall2Lerer (ML) ML,, VAR ARDL,, ML, J,, ML,,,ML, (Boyd,2001) Houthakker ad Magee (1969) :, Rose ad Yelle (1989) G ( ) OECD Marquez (1990) (bad spectrum) 31

2 : : ,, ML, Marquez,,, ML, Bahmai2Oskooee ( 1998), Bahmai2Oskooee Niroomad(1998) ML, Rose (1991) , ( ),ML Boyd (2001),, 8 5 ML Boyd (2001),,Egle2Grager ( Rose,1991),Johase2Juselius ( D1 Boyd et al,2001 ;Wilso, 2001), Pesara (ARDL) ML ( Kora, 2002) ML, Chua Sharma (1998),,,, Wilso (2001),,,,, (1991) , ,, (1992) : , , ,, ML, (1997) , , IMF - 013, 1, ML (2002) , :1994, 1994, Jeffery Frakel :, : (1), :, (Coakley et al, 1996 ;Boyd ad Smith, 1999),, (2) 8 Jeffery Frakel,

3 , ( 15 ),, ; (3) (,1996 ;,2002),,, :,,, (Reihart,1995), 1 ML ( :Bahmai2Oskooee,1998 ;Bahmai2Oskooee ad Niroomad, 1998),,,,, ML ( Rose, 1991 ; Lee ad Chi, 1998, Boyd, 2001 ), ( ),, ML, Y, PM, PD, S ( ) ; Y 3 PX, PX 3,, S ( ) ( Hauthaker ad Magee, 1969 ; Wilso ad Takacs, 1979 ; Reihart, 1995) : M d = M d ( Y, PM, PD, S) (1) X d = X d ( Y 3, PX, PX 3, S) (2), M d, X d, PD = PX = P ( P ), PM = PX 3 = P 3 ( P 3 ),, : E = S P 3 Π P, : M d = M d ( Y, E) (3) X d = X d ( Y 3, E) (4) (Wilso & Takacs, 1979),, ( ) : m t x t = m m y t m e t (5) = x x y 3 t x e t (6) m < 0,, x > 0, ML, (5), m > 0, m < 0 ;, (6), x > 0, x < 0 ( Kara, 2002),, : z t = m t - ( y t e t ) ( ) x 3 t = 33

4 : : ( m t, e t, y t ), Z t P (VAR) : x 3 t = z t - 1 p i x 3 t u t (7), VECM (structural coitegratig VARDL),,,, (Boyd,2001) VARDL ARDL ARDL : : m t = mi e t - i x t = xi e t - i mi y t - i xi y 3 t - i mi m t - i xi x t - i m z t u t (8) x z t u t (9) ARDL (7) (8), m, x < 0,, ; ( Greee,2000) m x, 12 1 ( 12 CPI ; CPI (, CPI CPI ) ; GDP, (,2000 ) ;, : (1) ( ) ( ) ; (2),, (2002) ,,, (2002),, (Pidyck, 1998) ( Eviews3. 1 ), 34 ex im e y Y 3 d(0) , t, i 3, t, i 2, t, i 4, t, i 4, t, i d(1) , t, i 2, t, i 1, t, i 4, t, i 3, t, i :d(i) I, 33 1 %, t,t ;i,i, AIC

5 ;,, IMF, 1, ADF AIC SBC( ), 10 %,,,, 1 %,, I(1) Johase ad Juselius (1990) (coitegratig VAR), Pesara (1996) (ARDL) ( ) ML : coitegratig VAR (coitegratig VAR),, (8) (9), (,2000 ; Pesara MH,Shi Y1995) Pesara ad Smith (1998), (coitegratig VAR),,,, AIC SBC, Pesara, (Pesara MH,Smith RP,1998) (M - r) M X 3, M = 3 r = 0, 1,,M - 1 (M), (M - 1),, (1) (M), Johase, (M),, (M - 1) (M - 1), ; (M - 1), (M - 2), (M - r) 2, ex (M - 0) > ( 10 % ), ex (M - 1) < ( 10 %,Joahso &Juselius,1990), ex (M - 0) ex (M - 1) im (M - 0) im (M - 1) ex e y 3 10 % im (M - 0) > ( 1 % ), im (M - :M = 3 1) < ( 1 % ), im e,y 1 %, 3 4 (8) (9) 3 4,, ; ARDL, ; 3 4, e 0, e 0, 318 Chua ad Sharma (1998), , ex im Boyd(2001), 10 %, 35

6 : : ARDL ex e y 3 itercept tred ( ) ( ) ( ) log ru coefficiet lag ex e ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) y ( ) ( ) ecm( - 1) ( ) : T,,, AIC 4 ARDL im e y itercept tred ( ) ( ) log ru coefficiet lag im ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) e ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) y ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ecm( - 1) ( ) : T,,, SBC ML,,, : (1),,, (2), ( J ), (3), 1994,, 36

7 (4) (1997) ( ),, 1,, % % % J,,, J (Wilso,2001) ( ) 3 4 ECM( - 1),,,, Kara (2002),,, 28 24,, ( ),e 0, e ( ),,,e 0,, e,,, J,J,,,, ( ),,,, J :Wilso (2001), 3 J J (Boyd,2001),, %, %, 37

8 : : ,, %, 10 % (,2002), :,,ML, J,,,,, 1995, 2002,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,, 30, ,,,,, ,1992 :,,1997 : : , 7,2000 :,,1991 :,,2002, , Bahmai2Oskooee,1998,Coitegratio Approach to Estimate the Log2ru Trade Elasticities i LDCs, giteratioal Ecoomic Jouralg 12 : 38

9 Bahmai2Oskooee, ad Niroomad, 1998, Log2ru Price Elasticities ad the Marshall2Lerer Coditio Revisited, Ecoomics Letters, 61 : Boyd D., et al, 2001, Real Exchage Rate Effects o the Balace of Trade, Iteratioal Joural of Fiace ad Ecoomics, 6 : Boyd D., ad Smith R., 1999, Testig for Purchasig Power Parity : Ecoometric Issues ad A Applicatio to Developig Coutries. Machester School, 67 : Chua, ad Sharma, 1998, A Ivestigatio of the Effects of Price ad Exchage Rates o Trade Flows i East Asia, Asia Ecoomic Joural, 12 : Coakley, et al, 1996, Curret Accout Solvecy ad the Feldstei2Horioka Puzzle, Ecoomic Joural, 106 : Greee W. H.,Ecoometric Aalysis,2000,Pretice Hall Ic.,4th Editio,2000. Houthakker H, Magee S, 1969, Icome ad Price Elasticites i World Trade, Review of Ecoomics ad Statistics 51 : Johase,S.,ad Juselius K.,1990,Maximum Likelihood Estimatio ad Iferece o Coitegratio,with Applicaito for the Demad for Moey, Oxford Bulleti of Ecoomics ad Statistics,52 : Kara O.,2002,Determiats of Trade Flows :Speed of Adjust,the Uiversity of Wiscosi2Milwaukee. Lee,Chi 1998, the Curret Accout ad the Real Exchage Rate : A Structural VAR Aalysis of Major Currecies, NB ER Workig Paper No Marquez J, 1990, Bilateral Trade Elasticities, greview of Ecoomics ad Statisticsg, 72 : Pidyck R. S.,Rubifeld D. L.,1998,Ecoometric Models ad Ecoomic Forecasts,4th,the McGraw2Hill Compaies,Ic. Pesara M. H.,Smith RP,1998,Structural Aalysis of Coitegratig VARs, Joural of Ecoomic Survey 12 (5) : Pesara M. H.,Shi Y,1996,Coitegratio ad the Speed of Covergece to Equilibrium, Joural of Ecoometrics,71 : Pesara M. H.,Shi Y,1995,A Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelig Approach to Coitegratio Aalysis,Preseted at the Symposium at the Ceteial of Ragar Frisch. Reihart,1995,Devaluatio,Relative Price,ad Iteratioal Trade, IMF Staff Paper,42 : Rose A. K. 1991,The Role of Exchage Rates i A Popular Model of Iteratioal Trade :Does the Marshall2Lerer Coditio Hold? Joural of Iteratioal Ecoomics 30 : Rose A. k.,yelle,1989,is This a J2curve?, Joural of Moetary Ecoomics,24 : Wilso P.,2001,Exchage rate ad the Trade Balace for Dyamic Asia Ecoomies2Does the J2curve Exit for Sigapore,Malaysia ad Korea, Ope Ecoomies Reviews,12 : Wilso J. F.,Takacs W. E.,1979,Differetial Resposes to Price ad Exchage Rate Iflueces i the Foreig Trade of Selected Idustrial Coutries, Reviews of Ecoomics ad Statistics,61 : The Ifluece of Fluctuatio of Real RMB Exchage Rate to Chiese Import ad Export : Lu Xiagqia & Dai Guoqiag (Shaghai Uiversity of Fiace ad Ecoomics) Abstract :Marshall2Lerer coditio is oe of importat foudatios of macroecoomic policies. Now, RMB is facig pressure of appreciatio. At this time, it s istructioal to reexamie ML coditio for cetral bak s costitutig exchage rate policy. This paper is a empirical examiatio of log ru relatioship betwee Chiese iteratioal trade flow ad real weighted effective RMB exchage rate to mai currecies of the world from 1994 to The empirical result is that real RMB exchage rate remarkably iflueced Chiese import ad export,ml coditio held ad there is J curve effect i Chia. Key Words :Real RMB Exchage Rate ; Import ad Export ; ML Coditio ; J Curve Effect JEL Classificatio :F310, C320 ( : ) ( : ) 39

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