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1 : 3 :,, (VAR),,, : 997, 200, WTO,, , 2,, ( Kanamori and Zhao,2006 ;,2006),,, ,,,,, :,,2005, ,200 0,,, , 4 % 6 % 9 %,,,,,,,, 3,, :00836, com ;,, :25000, com 973 ( 2007CB8490), 68

2 2009 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Corden (2002) 998 Agliea e al (2003),, Calvo and Mendoza (2000),,,,,, (Rose, 2000),,,,,,,,,,, :, (Agmael,98),,,,,,,,, 69

3 :,,,,,,,,, (Balassa, 964 ; Samuelson, 964),, :,, (2004), U h, : (2) (3) : U h, = ( C h, ) ( C h2, +) - - P h, C h, + D h, = P h, Y h, (2) P h, + C h2, + () = + ( + r f, ) D h, Π (3), Y h,, ; C h, ; C h2, ; D h, ; D h,, ;,, C h, = C h, + C h2, (4), (Chen, 2004),,, (Obsfeld, Maurice, And Kenneh Rogoff, 996), C h = C hh, N ( C - hh, TChf, T) - (5) P h, T ( P - - h, T Pf, T ) P h, c = (- [( - ) ] ) [ ( - ) ( - ) ] C h (- ) ( - ) (6) = C hh, N ( C - hh, TChf, T) - = (7) P h, N C hh, T + P h, T C hh, T + P hf, T C hf, T = P h, c C h (8) (5) (6) (7) (8), P h, T, P h, N, P f, T, P f, N, C hh, N, C hh, T, C hf, T,(0 << ) (2) (3), : 70 P h, C h, + P h, + C h2, + = P + + h, Y h, (9) r f,

4 2009 3, : C h, = Y h, + + h, + ( + r f, ) ( - ) (0) C h2, + = + h, + Y h, ( + r f, ) h, + ( + r f, ) (- ) () C h2, = - h, Y h, - ( + r f, - ) ( + r f, - ) h, (- ) (2) C h, = C h, + C h2, ( + G h, ) = Y h, - + h, + ( + r f, ) + (- ) + - h, ( + r f, - ) ( + r f, - ) h, (- ) D h, P h, = + Y h, - + h, + ( + r f, ) = - + Y h, - f, + ( + r f, ),(4) (7) : U f, = ( C f, ) ( C f2, +) - - (3) - (4) P f, C f, + D f, = P f, Y f, (5) P f, + C f2, + P f, C f, = ( + r h, ) D f, Π + (6) + + P f, + C f2, + = P + r f, Y f, (7) h, (8) (2) : C f, + + f, + C f2, + = Y + f, (8) r h, C f, = Y f, + + f, + ( + r h, ) - (9) C f2, + = + Y f, ( + r h, ) + ( + r h, ) f, f, + (20) C f, = C f, + C f2, ( + G f, ) = Y f, f, + ( + r h, ) ( - ) + + ( + r h, - ) + ( + r h, - ) f, - + f, (- ) D f, P f, = Y f, ( + r h, ) f, + = - Y f, - h, + + ( + r h, ) (2) - 7

5 :, : X h, = Y h, - ( C hht, + C hhn, ), IM h, = q h, C hf T,, X f, = q h, [ Y f, - ( C ff T, + C ffn, ) ], IM f, = C fhn,,c h, = C h, + C h2, C f, = C f, + C f2,, [ X h, - IM h, ] + [ X f, - IM f, ] - ( D h, - ( + r h, - ) Π + )ΠP h, - ( D f, - ( + r f, - ) + Π )ΠP f, = 0. (22), () : (2) : (3) : X h, = IM f, (23) X f, = IM h, (24) D h, - + r h, - q P h, - h, + Πq h, + h, D f, - + r f, - q P f, - h, Πq h, + = 0 (25) f,, q h, = P h, P f,, (23) (24) (25) (M2F ),,,, (23) [+ ( - ) ] ( - ) P f, c Y f, - P h, c P h, N C hh, N + P h, T C hh, T + P h, T C f h, T = P h Y h (26) ( + G h, ) + f, + ( + r f, ) Y h, - (- ) + ( + G f, ) + h, + ( + r h, ) f, ( + r f, - ) + - f, ( + r f, - ) ( - ) + h, ( + r h, - ) + - (- ) + ( - ) h, ( + r h, - ) = ( + G h, ) (27), ( q h, ) q h, = Y f, - Y h, - ( + G f, ) - [ + ( - ) ] ( + G f, ) + h, + ( + r h, ) ( + G h, ) ( - ) ( - ) + f, + ( + r f, ) ( - ) + ( - ) + f, ( + r f, - ) + h, ( + r h, - ) + - h, ( + r h, - ) - f, ( + r f, - ) (- ) (- ) (- ) (28), (24) (25) 72 (28)

6 2009 3,,,,,(VAR) VAR,, :,,,,,,, GDP, GDP ( IFS), ,: LEER :, CDRR :, C - GDPG:, USDRR :, US - GDPG:, Y = (L EER, C - GDPG, US - GDPG) :, X = ( CDRR, USDRR) : VAR( k) k Y = A i Y - i i = E l + B i X - i + i = + E (29) = iid ( O,),A,A 2 3 3, B i 3 2, E 3, O 3, 3 3 VAR, (29) (VEC) : k- Y = Y - + i = i Y - i k k i = - A i, i =,2,, k -,= ( i = j+ i = l + B i X - i + i = + U (30) A i - I), I 3 3, Y,Y I () Y I (0),(30) Y -,Y Y -,Y ( Granger), < 3, = Y - I (0),,2 73

7 :, Y (Hamilon, 994) 4 :,,,,VAR,,,,,VEC ADF (ADF) (), 2 2( %) LEER (LEER) C2GDPG (C - GDPG) US2GDPG CDRR (US - GDPG) USDRR , (CDRR) (USDRR) () LEER C - GDPG US - GDPG,,,, 2,, : LEER = LEER ( - ) LEER ( - 2) C - ( - ) C - GDPG( - 2) US - GDPG( - ) US - GDPG( - 2) CDRR USDRR C - GDPG= LEER( - ) LEER( - 2) C - GDPG( - ) C - GDPG( - 2) US - GDPG( - ) US - GDPG( - 2) CDRR USDRR GDPG US - GDPG= LEER( - ) LEER( - 2) C - GDPG ( - ) C - GDPG( - 2) US - GDPG( - ) US - GDPG( - 2) CDRR USDRR VAR, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2005,, ,, 74

8 % ,, ,, ,, 989,,,,,, 996, 83,, ,,,,,,,, ,, 75

9 :, 200 VAR,2004,,,,,,;,,, 998,,,,,,, ( ),, ,,,, : %, % ,GDP () 2 %,GDP 27 %,5 %, %, 6 %, 43 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 76

10 2009 3,2004 :,,2006 : :, 0 Alesina, Albero and Barro, Rober J., 200,Dollarizaion, American Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 2. Balassa, Bela, 964,The Purchasing Power Pariy Docrine : A Reappraisal, Journal of Poliical Economy 72 (December), pp Calvo, Guillermo A and Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000,Capial2Markes Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markes : An Informaional2 Fricions Approach, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2. Chen, Shikuan, 2000,Endogenous Real Exchange Rae Flucuaions in an Opimizing Open Economy Model, Journal of Inernaional Money and Finance, 9,pp Corden, W. Max, 2002,Exchange Rae Regimes for Emerging Marke Economies : Lessons from Asia, Annals of he American Academy of Poliical and Social Science, Vol. 579, Exchange Rae Regimes and Capial Flows, pp Hamilon, James D.,994,Time Series Analysis,Princeon Universiy Press. Michel Agliea e al,2003,exchange rae Managemen in Cenral Europe and he Debae on Exchange Rae Regimes, Revue Economique, Vol. 54, No. 5. Mundell, l997,currency Areas, Common Currencies, and EMU, American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. 2. Mundell, Rober, 96,A Theory of Opimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review, Vol. 5, No. 4. Obsfeld, Maurice, And Kenneh Rogoff,996,Foundaions of Inernaional Macroeconomics,MIT Press. Rose, Andrew K, 2000,A Review of Some of he Economic Conribuions of Rober A. Mundell, Winner of he 999 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 02, No. 2. Samuelson, Paul A., 964,Theoreical Noes on Trade Problems, Review of Economics and Saisics 46, May, pp Zhao, Zhijun and Toshiki Kanamori, 2006,Renminbi Exchange Rae Revaluaion : Theory, Pracice and Lessons from Japan, Asian Developmen Bank Insiue. Big Counry Model and he Evaluaion of Exchange Rae of RMB vs. USD Zhao Zhijun ( Insiue of Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) Chen Zengjing (Shandong Universiy) Absrac : In his paper a big counry model of real exchange rae is creaed according o he characerisics of emerging marke economy wih high economic growh. Based on he heoreical model, we design a Vecor Auoregression Model and conduc empirical analysis o undersand he relaionship of real exchange rae, economic growh and ineres rae. The empirical sudy shows ha currenly Renminbi vs. USD exchange rae is no longer undervalued as before 2004 and i is somewha overvalued. Under curren global and domesic macroeconomic siuaion, he overvaluaion of he real exchange rae could be correced mainly hrough he adjusmen of price level and nominal exchange rae is no necessarily o be changed drasically. Key Words : Real Exchange Rae ; Economic Growh ; Real Ineres Rae ; Vecor Auo2regression Model JEL Classificaion :F0, F30, F40 ( :) ( : ) 77

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