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1 Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th 08 * : : 67-7 :. : * mahub@umsha.ac.r : 88/0/9 : 88//7 :. : :. 8.. C.A.MAN ArcGs9.. R.8.0. :. :...(9)... :.(- ) AFP (6) (7) 7.(8) 88 Acute Flaccd Paralyss (AFP)

2 ... Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th (0)..()... SMR. 6.. SMR EB.() EB..() () SID 0 00.() 006.(0).().. 8 ) ( AFP. o 0. n 8 7 Sudden nfant death (SID) 8 Small populaton counts 9 Mltno 0 Rattanasr Chandrasekaran Arvargnan Incdence Rate (I.R) Over dsperson Bohnng Schlattmann Standardzed Mortalty Rato (SMR) 6 Emprcal Bayes: EB

3 Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th 08 posson( e λ) Pr[λ= λ ]=p =,,..., k.. EM. λ : p f ( o λ ) P =, r =,,.., k p f ( o λ ) r r 88.() 6. BIC AIC AIC= L-α ( K-) BIC= L- ( K-) log n L. α= k n SMR.() :. SMR EB k λ p = = E( λ o, P) = P( λ o ) λ = k = p k = f ( o, λ ) f ( o, λ ) SMR.() C.A.MAN. R.8.0 ArcGs9.. Expectaton Maxmzaton (EM) Akake's Informaton Crteron (AIC) 6 Bayesan Informaton Crteron (BIC) :. 8 o. I. R = n. θ θ. θ : o θ = n ( 8 /8 ) θ (=... 0) ( e ). θ n e = n. =,,...,0 θ. o e. SMR θ n. m AFP ( e ) m o. λ. λ e (=... 0) y λ e λ e ( e ). y y! (λ ) λ...(). λe λ (k) p, p,..., p λ, k λ,..., λ k :. k y

4 ... Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th K= AIC. K= BIC. k =.(R.R= 0/67) AFP (R.R= 0/669) R.R= /7 R.R R.R= / ( ) 6/6 6/8 /8666 /69 /9 /888 /88 /808 /60 /9 /6 / /990 /808 /7 /69 /8 /9 /6 /6 /0 /076 /987 /679 /69 /677 /9 / 0/878 0/ /90 ( ) AFP SMR SMR... AFP.. BIC AIC

5 BIC AIC (K) - Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th BIC AIC ( λ ) ( ) 0/70 0/ 970 -/60 -/ 696-0/ 8 K= /7 0/ 600 0/0 0/ 09-8/06-06/ / 0 0/9678 0/ 87 K= /9 0/ 078 0/67 0/ 070-0/086-0/ 0-9/ 607 0/669 0/ 9 /7 0/ 8 K= /08 0/ 08 0/67 0/ 070 0/669 0/ 90 -/67-0/ 0-9/ 60 /6 0/ 6 K= /78 0/ 66 /086 0/ (R.R= 0/67) ( 0/). I.R. 8.(6).. p. - I.R () 9

6 ... 6 Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th 08 SMR...(). BIC AIC Space-tme Mxture Models..().. Ramathbod. 7 Intal value References - Matyásová I. Polomyelts survellance n the Czech Republc from the start of vaccnaton to the certfcaton of eradcaton n the European Regon. Epdemol Mkrobol Imunol 00; (): Samoĭlovch EO, Ermolovch MA, Kotova IF, et al. Survellance of acute flaccd paralyss n Belarus. Zh Mkrobol Epdemol Immunobol 007; (): -. - Olvé JM, Castllo C, Castro RG, et al. Epdemologc study of Gullan-Barré syndrome n chldren < years of age n Latn Amerca. J Infect Ds 997; 7(): 60-. polo free......(6) % () SMR (0- ) - Beyene B, Gebremaram A, Teka T, et al. Regonal dstrbuton of acute flaccd paralyss cases n Ethopa n Jpn J Infect Ds 00; 7(): Debanne SM and Rowland DY. Statstcal certfcaton of eradcaton of polomyelts n the Amercas. Math Bosc 998; 0(): Razav S, Khodaee H, Kargar M, et al. Polo vrus and non polo antro-vrus dentfcaton wth conducted envronmental montorng and suspected cases of acute

7 7 Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th 08 paralyss n Sstan and Baluchestan provnce. Iranan South Medcal Journal 007;9 (): Shoa ZO, Tabatabe H, Shahmahmoud S, et al. "Comparson of cell culture wth RT-PCR for enterovrus detecton n stool specmens from patents wth acute flaccd paralyss." J Cln Lab Anal 007; (): Shahmahmood S, Mehrab Z, Sarloo M, et al. Frst detecton of enterovrus 7 from an acute flaccd paralyss case wth resdual paralyss n Iran. J Cln Vrol 008; (): Maragh A. Comparson of Bayesan and Maxmum Lkelhood Estmaton Methods n Mappng Relatve Rsk of Iranan Rural Area Infant Mortalty. Bostatstcs MSc Thess, Shahd Behesht Unversty of Medcal Scence, Rattanasr S, Böhnng D, Roanavpart p, et al. A mxture model applcaton n dsease mappng of malara. Southeast Asan J Trop Med Publc Health 00; (): Chandrasekaran K and Arvargnan G. Dsease mappng usng mxture dstrbuton. Indan J Med Res 006; : Lawson AB and Clark A. Spatal mxture relatve rsk models appled to dsease mappng. Stat Med 00; (): Mltno AF, Ugarte MD, Dean CB, et al. The use of mxture models for dentfyng hgh rsks n dsease mappng. Stat Med 00; 0(): Schlattmann P and Böhnng D. Mxture models and dsease mappng. Stat n Med 99; (9-0): Boehnng D, Detz E, Kuhnert R, et al. Mxture models for capture-recapture count data. Statstcal Methods and Applcatons 00; : Tabatabaee M, Zahraee M, Ahmadna h, et al. Prncples of Preventons and Supervson of Dseases. Tehran: Ruhe ghalam Press; 007: 8-9,

8 ... 8 Dsease Mappng of Acute Flaccd Paralyss n Iran Usng Mxture Dstrbutons Downloaded from hakm.hb.r at 7: IRST on Thursday October th 08 Gharbzadeh S (MSc), Mahub H, (PhD), Moghmbeg A, (PhD), Sadr GH, (PhD) Abstract Department of Bostatstcs, School of Publc Health, Hamedan Unversty of Medcal Scences, Hamedan, Iran Health Scence Research Center, Hamedan Unversty of medcal Scences, Hamedan, Iran Receved: 8 Aug 009, Accepted: 0 Dec 009 Introducton: The am of ths study s to map acute flaccd paralyss n the provnces of Iran, usng mxture dstrbutons. Methods: In ths study, nformaton about the new cases of acute flaccd paralyss whch were provded by Management Center of Mnstry of Health and Medcal Educaton n 8 (006) were analyzed. Posson Mxture dstrbuton was used to fnd out the number of at rsk groups. Number of components and parameters of each component were found by nonparametrc maxmum lkelhood method usng the C.A.MAN software. Bayes theorem and programs whch are wrtten n the R.8.0 software were used to assgn each provnce to a parameter. Fnally the results were shown on the map usng ArcGs9.. Results: The results show that the ncdence of acute flaccd paralyss can be classfed nto four categores, each havng ther own specfc rsk and probablty. Concluson: Ths study showed that Mxture models can be used to accurately map acute flaccd paralyss n Iran. Key words: Dseases Mappng, Posson Dstrbuton, Bayes Theorem, Iran Hakm Research Journal 00; (): - 8. Correspondng Author: Health Scences Research Center, Department of Bostatstcs & Epdemology, School of Publc Health, Hamedan Unversty of Medcal Scences, P.O.Box: Hamedan, Iran. Tel: Fax: , Emal: mahub@umsha.ac.r

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