1997 2007 5 OLS Abstract An understanding of the macro-level relationship between fertility and female employment is relevant and important to current policy-making. The objective of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship between the total fertility and the female labor force participation rates using the panel data from all 47 prefectures in Japan 1977 2007, quinquennial. After checking the existence of unit roots of two variables, i.e. total fertility rates and female labor force par- The 11th Annual Hawaii International Conference on Business, May 26 29, 2011 at the Hilton Waikiki Beach Dr. Shishu Zhang University of the Incarnate Word, USA Dr. Richard Cho University of New Brunswick, Saint Jhon, Canada University of New South Wales, Australia
ticipation rates, by some panel unit-root tests, the estimating results of panel data regression including panel cointegration tests, as well as the Granger Causality Tests, are reported. We found that total fertility rates and female labor force participation rates have a negative and bi-directional causal relationship in a sense of Granger. Key words : fertility, female labor force participation, panel unit root, Granger causality, Japan JEL Classification : C 22, C 52, J 13 1 OECD Kogel 2004 1985 Engelhardt et al 2004 Mishra and Smyth 2010 Chen et al 1997 Narayan and Peng 2007
Engelhardt et al 2004, 110 4 1 2 3 4 spurious 1997 2007 5 Kogel 2004 2 1 15 49 20-39 1977 90 2002
1 2 20 39 47 2 Kogel 2004 OECD 1985 OECD
3 20 39 1997-2007 5 1985 1997 0.29 5 1997 2007 5 7 3 2 3 3 Levine, Lin and Chu Test Baltagi 2008 chap.12, Asteriou and Hall 2011 chap.22
Yi, t ai ρ iyi, t 1 n!k 1φ k Yi, t k δ it θ t uit 1 Y 20 39 LFLPR LFERT LLC Test ai θ t φ k ADF uit 1997 2007 5 t 1 T T 7 i 1 N N 47 ρ 0 foralli 1A 2B EViews ver.7 LLC Test PP Phillips-Perron Test 1B 2B 1A LFLFP With intercept and trend No intercept and trend Method Statistic Prob Statistic Prob Levin, Lin & Chu t* PP Fisher Chi-square 21.5889 255.377 11.7587 3.61866 1.0000 1.0000 1B LFLFP With intercept and trend No intercept and trend Method Statistic Prob Statistic Prob Levin, Lin & Chu t* PP Fisher Chi-square 27.4990 189.175 16.7251 357.294
2A LFERT With intercept and trend No intercept and trend Method Statistic Prob Statistic Prob Levin, Lin & Chu t* PP Fisher Chi-square 4.78478 74.2077 0.9345 27.1752 770.855 2B LFERT With intercept and trend No intercept and trend Method Statistic Prob Statistic Prob Levin, Lin & Chu t* PP Fisher Chi-square 13.2895 136.309 0.0029 8.33588 180.658 4 OLS LFLFPR LFERT OLS 20 39 1 LFLFPRit α 0 α 1 LFERTit uit LFERTit β 0 β 1 LFLFPRit vit 2 3 2 3 α 1 β 1 Random Effect Model 3A 3B Fixed Effect Model Random Effect Model
3A 2 C LFERT Adjusted R-squared F-static Dependent Variable LFLFPR Coefficient t-static Prob. 0.020941 0.275213 0.034398 11.01024 3.158377 3.161479 Durbin-Watson Prob F-Statistic 0.0018 0.0017 2.609113 0.001026 3B 3 C LFLFPR Adjusted R-squared F-static Dependent Variable LFERT Coefficient t-static Prob. 0.057131 0.137474 0.034398 11.01024 17.75675 3.104224 Durbin-Watson Prob F-Statistic 0.0021 1.889717 0.001026 4 t-statistic Prob. ADF 12.26790 LFLFPR LFERT spurious Kao Test 4 ADF LFLFPR LFERT 5 Mishra et al 2006 LFERT LFLFP
5 Granger Causality Lags : 2 Obs : 188 Lags : 3 Obs : 141 Lags : 4 Obs : 94 Null Hypothesis : F-Statistic Prob. Cusality LFLFPR does not Granger Cause LFERT LFERT does not Granger Cause LFLFPR LFLFPR does not Granger Cause LFERT LFERT does not Granger Cause LFLFPR LFLFPR does not Granger Cause LFERT LFERT does not Granger Cause LFLFPR 33.4742 9.35202 5.38277 13.2984 3.31453 13.0875 4.E 13 0.0001 0.0016 1.E 07 0.0142 2.E 08 LFERTit λ π π 12ip LFLFPit p ψ 1iECTt 1 1g!p 11ipLFERTit p!p LFLFPit λ π π 22ip LFERTit pψ 2iECTt 1 2g!p 21ipLFLFPit p!p 4 5 ECTt 1 4 LFLFP LFLFP LFERT EViews ver.7 5 6
Asteriou, D. and S. G. Hall 2011 Applied Econometrics 2 nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan. Cheng,B.,R.C.HsuandQ,Chu 1997 The Causality between Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation in Japan, Applied Economics Letters, 4, 113 116. Engelhardt, H., T. Kogel and A. Prskawetz 2004 Fertility and Women s Employment Reconsidered : A Macro-Level Time Series Analysis for Developed Countries, 1960 2000, Population Studies, 58, 1, 109 120. Kogel, T. 2004 Did the Association between Fertility and Female Employment within OECD Countries Really Change Its Sign? Journal of Population Economics, 17, 45 65. Mishra,V.I.NielsenandR.Smith 2006 The Relationship between Female Labour Force Participation and Fertility in G 7 Countries : Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Granger Causality, Discussion Paper 13/06, Department of Economics, Monash University. Mishra,V.andR.Smyth 2010 Female Labor Force Participation and Total Fertility Rates in the OECD : New Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Granger Causality Testing, Journal of Economics and Business, 62, 48 64. Narayan, P. K. and R. Smyrh 2006 Female Labour Force Participation, Fertility and Infant Mortality in Australia : Some Empirical Evidence from Granger Causality Tests, Applied Economics, 38, 563 572. Narayan, P. K. and X. Peng 2007 Japan s Fertility Transition : Empirical Evidence from the Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration, Japan and the World Economy, 19, 263 278. 2011 11 30