: 3 ( ( 330013) 200083) : : (1),,(2), (3), (4),, ; : :, ;,,, 50 %, 100, : 17 %, 11 %, 7 %, 65 % 1999 50, 94. 92 %, (,2002) 1999 5 3, 1999 9,, 2001 12 31 34,,,,??,? 3, 74
2003 5,,?,,,?, 2002 4 30 2001,,34, ( ) 1,,34, 29, 85 % ( ) 35 % 29 % 12 % 9 % Π 9 % 3 % 3 % 1 40166 % 12 35 % 17584 10810 29934 010229-010098 29100 % 1 3 % 0 28600 21186 01137 010857 Π 48158 % 1 3 % 0 0 10010 01155 010262 27100 % 3 9 % 16587 8733 28294-010475 - 010356 49167 % 3 9 % 0 3400 3104 010860 3 3 010309 3 3 3 43160 % 4 12 % 10125 12600 13294-011034 3 3 3-010697 3 3 57157 % 10 29 % 12562 4030 14969 010551 010723 : 3 3 5 %, 3 3 3 10 % : 1999 2002 1 4,,, (, ),,, 2001 2002 1 4,,,,, 75
:, 3000,, Π,, ( ) ( ) 0. 137 (8. 57 %) 01155 (2. 62 %),, ;, ( ), 0. 10 (6. 97 %),, ( ),,, 2,,, () 0. 3214 (9. 4 %), () 0. 1624 (6. 22 %),,, 2 013213 013025 011890134 010100 017210 011624 011669 0120571114-117515 112370 011392 010940 0115633185 010066 013610 010411 010622 0112541237-9817600 4817600-010372 010085 0123456936-018662 017625-010953 - 010600 0132887046-513190 11009 ( %) - 0188-1194 0115494773-25102 30125 ( %) - 3155-3153 0113775577-94183 98196 :,, 1 %,,? ( ) 11 3, ( 56 %),,,, ;,, (1),,,, (2),, (3),,,, (4) 76
2003 5,,,,, ;,,,,,,, 3 19 56 % - 010499-0102846 1 3 % - 01137-0105610 4 12 % 011193 3 0101966 1 3 % 01137 0108568 6 18 % 012080 0115903 3 9 % 0101417-0103220 : 3 10 % 21, ( ),,,,( ) 0. 0222 (0. 044) ;,( ) 0. 0245 (0. 0112) 4 10 29 % 010852 010646 9 26 % - 011285-010378 7 21 % 010623-010016 3 9 % 011503 3 010354 5 15 % 010474 010050 : 3 10 % 31, 4,, 77
:,( ) 0. 0852 (0. 0646) ;,,( ) 0. 1285 (0. 0378) :,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,, ( 56 %, 19 %, 75 %),,,,, 1 : H 1 :,,,,,,,,? (2002),,,,,, 2 : H 2 :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 78
2003 5, ;,, : H 3a :,, H 3b :,, ( ) 11 5 3 : (FIRDRDUM) 240657, 10 %,1,,,,,,,, (SAMEDUM) 224468, 5 %,,,,,,,,,, 5,, (ABMDUM),,,,,,,,? (SSOEDUM),, ; 5 5, 21 5 5 : (1) ( GLGROW) 0. 00000016,, (2) ( GROWSHIN) 0. 0000055, 1 %,,,,,2,, 79
:, 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) : - 900918-1412964 - 776385-1777846 4119 3 3 3 1163 : 206711 3 240657 3 (FSTDRDUM) ( ENTREN) ( GLGROW) ( GROWSHIN) 210483 3 3 342014 3 3-0137 3 0121 0100000016 010000055 3 3 3 ( FSPDUM MOWSHINC) : (SAMEDUM) - 0100000037 224468 3 3 229244 3 3 3-01093 01005 ( INDDIRRA) - 13 859-4 057 0122 0132 ( ISTDIRRA) 0132 0109 3-01011 0172 3 3 3 (ABMDUM) 40501 19296 01088 (PDUM) 26983 24682 011 (SSOEDUM) (SOELPDUM) - 13332-125596 013 3 3 3-0111 (PASTEPS) - 66836-99578 - 67959-173624 (SIZE) 44692 64752 3 38318 81906 3 3-0119 3 3 3-01096 3 3 3 R 2 0133 0136 0124 0133 0133 0128 F 4188 5148 2122 2195 2140 215 F P 01004 01002 0106 0102 0104 0104 : (1) 3 t 10 %, 3 3 t 5 %, 3 3 3 t 1 % (2),,, ;,, 80
2003 5 ( ENTREN) 10 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 5 6 : (FSPDUM MOWSHINC) - 0. 00000037,, 3b, 3a,,,,,,,,, 31 : (1), ;, (2), ;,,,,,,: (1) ;,, ; (2), ;, (3), ;,, (4),,, 81
:, (5), (6),,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,, : (1),, (2),, (3),, (4) (),,2002 :, 6 21,1998 :,10,1999 :,,2001 :, 6,2002 :, Core,John E., Robert W. Holthausen, David F. larcker, 1999, Corporate Governance, Chief Executive Officer Compensation, and Firm Performance, Journal of Financial Economics. Engel Ellen, Elizabeth A. Gordon, and Rachel M. Hayes,2002, The Roles of Performance Measures and Monitoring in Annual Governance Decisions in Entrepreneurial Firms. Morck,R., Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny,1988,Management Ownership and Market Valuation : An Empirical Analysis,Journal of Financial Economics. Murphy, K.J.,1985,Corporate Performance and Managerial Remuneration :An Empirical Analysis, Journal of Accounting and Economics. (: ) ( : ) 82
Structural Changes, Efficiency Improvement and Electricity Demand Forecasting Lin Boqiang (Asian Development Bank) This paper uses a macroeconomic approach to develop a long run electricity demand model to analyze the main factors affecting electricity demand in the PRC. As expected, the relationship among variables are more stable and significant after the PRC economic reforms (1978), when all factors are more responsive to market forces. The demand elasticity of GDP is estimated at about 0. 8 after the 1978 PRC economic reforms, lower than the pre - reform period ( before 1978). The results show that, although GDP is still the most important factor for electricity demand, the electricity demand is negatively related with structural changes and efficiency improvement in the PRC. This implies that in a fast growing economy, high GDP growth does not always go with high electricity demand and this explains why in 1998, when the PRC had an economic growth rate of 718 %, electricity consumption grew by only 218 %. Key Words :Structural Changes ; Efficiency Improvement ; Electricity Demand Model JEL Classification :L940,E200 The Industrial Characteristic of Capital Structure : An Empirical Study on Chinese Listed Companies Guo Pengfei & Sun Peiyuan (Shanghai Jiaotong University) This paper classifies the Chinese listed companies according to CSRC s industry classification standard,and conducts a through empirical study on the industrial characteristic of capital structure. Results show that : 1. There is optimal capital structure with Chinese listed companies and industry is one of the determinant factors. 2. There are significant difference among the capital structures of different industries. And about 9. 5 % of the differences among companies can be explained by industries. 3. The capital structure of the same industry is rather stable. 4. There isn t significant difference among different sub2industries in the same broader industry. Key Words :capital structure ; industrial characteristic ;industry classification standard ; listed companies JEL Classification : G320, G340 The Research on Governance Effect of Top2management Stock Incentive Empirical Evidences from Chinese Listed Companies Zhou Jianbo (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics ;Jiangxi Universityof Finance and Economics) In this paper,we examine the relation between corporate governance, executive managers stock incentive and enhancement of corporate performance. We find : Firstly, There exists selection bias, for adopting stock incentive companies whose performances are high before adopting stock incentive plan. Secondly, the coefficient between increasing shares of top2management and the ratio of directors who serve on the largest shareholder is positive and significant. Thirdly, as for companies with high growth opportunity, the coefficient between improvements in firm performance and increasing shares of top2management is positive and significant. Fourthly, incentive effect of obliging top2management share, buying negotiable shares with salary and mixing model are better. Key Words :stock incentive ; corporate governance ; board composition ; control shareholder s characteristic ; firm performance. JEL Classification : G320, G340, G390 93