INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ICIB 2013 proceedings edited by Aristidis Bitzenis and Vasileios A. Vlachos
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International Conference on International Business (www.icib.eu) Thessaloniki, 16-18 May 2013 Proceedings edited by Aristidis Bitzenis and Vasileios A. Vlachos
2014 «Εργαστήριο Διεθνών Σχέσεων και Ευρωπαϊκής Ολοκλήρωσης του Πανεπιστημίου Μακεδονίας» Πανεπιστήμιο Μακεδονίας Οικονομικών και Κοινωνικών Επιστημών, Εγνατία 156, Τ.Κ. 54006, Θεσσαλονίκη. http://www.diethneis-sxeseis.gr Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών Σπουδών Τηλ. 2310 891498 Fax: 2310 891465 Μπιτζένης Π. Αριστείδης, Ph.D. ISBN 978-960-98740-7-6 ISSN 2241-5645 Απαγορεύεται η με οποιονδήποτε τρόπο αναπαραγωγή του συνόλου ή μέρους του παρόντος με οποιοδήποτε μέσο, μηχανικό, ηλεκτρονικό, φωτοτυπικό, ή άλλο, χωρίς την γραπτή άδεια του συγγραφέα, σύμφωνα με τον Νόμο 2121/1993 και τους κανόνες του Διεθνούς Δικαίου που ισχύουν στην Ελλάδα.
International Conference on International Business Chair Dr. Aristidis Bitzenis, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Heads of Scientific Committee Dr. Aristidis Bitzenis, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Dr. John Marangos, University of Crete (Rethymno, Greece). Head of Organizing Committee Dr. Aristidis Bitzenis, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Members of Organizing Committee Mr. Charisios Kafteranis, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Dr. Marko Kolakovic, University of Zagreb (Zagreb, Croatia). Dr. John Marangos, University of Crete (Rethymno, Greece). Mr. Vasileios A. Vlachos, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Scientific Committee Members Dr. Oksan Artar, Istanbul Commerce University (Istanbul, Turkey). Dr. Foteini Asderaki, Lecturer, University of Piraeus (Piraeus, Greece). Dr. Rana Atabay Baytar, Istanbul Commerce University (Istanbul,Turkey). Dr. Evaghoras L. Evaghorou, University of Piraeus (Piraeus, Greece). Dr. Konstantinos Hazakis, Democritus University of Thrace (Komotini, Greece). Dr. Marko Kolakovic, University of Zagreb (Zagreb, Croatia). Dr. Petia Koleva, University Paris Diderot (Paris, France). Dr. Ilias Kouskouvelis, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Dr. Eric Magnin, University Paris Diderot (Paris, France). Dr. Dimitris Manolopoulos, Athens University of Economics and Business (Athens, Greece). Dr. Vladimir Marinkovic, Megatrend University, (Beograd, Serbia) Dr. Pyrros Papadimitriou, University of Peloponnese (Korinthos, Greece). Dr. Ioannis Papadopoulos, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Dr. Iordanis Petsas, University of Scranton (Scranton, USA). Dr. Georgios Rizopoulos, University Paris Diderot (Paris, France). Dr. Bruno Sergi, University of Messina (Messina, Italy). Mr. Stefanovic Nebojsa, President of the Parliament of the Republic of Serbia. Dr. Ioannis Tampakoudis, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Dr. Virginia Zhelyazkova, VUZF University (Sofia, Bulgaria). Associated members Dr. Achilleas Anagnostopoulos, Technological Education Institute of Larissa (Larissa, Greece). Dr. Panagiotis Kontakos, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Dr. Nikolaos Konstantopoulos, University of the Aegean (Chios, Greece). Ms. Christina Sakali, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Mr. Vasileios A.Vlachos, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece).
Organizers Department of International and European Studies, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). International Relations and European Integration Laboratory, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki, Greece). Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus (Piraeus, Greece). European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Thessaloniki, Greece). Faculty of Political Science, University of Messina (Messina, Italy). UMR LADYSS, University Paris Diderot (Paris, France). School of Business and Economics, Winston-Salem State University (Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA).
Contents Introduction 1 Friedrich Schneider (keynote speaker) Size and development of the shadow economies of Greece and 35 other OECD countries from 2003 to 2013: Some new facts 2 Press release (in Greek) 13 Page Steve Bainbridge (keynote speaker) The changing Greek and European labour markets will bring new challenges for developing and using skills 15 International Economics, Business & Finance Ioannis A. Tampakoudis, Demetres N. Subeniotis and Manolis I. Skouloudakis Determinants of foreign direct investments in middle- income countries and the role of 27 middle-income trap John Marangos The Post Keynesian retort to After the Washington Consensus 40 Stavros Degiannakis and Apostolos Kiohos Modelling multi-period value at risk for two financial markets: Global evidence 41 Panagiotis Kontakos Gas pricing in South-Eastern Europe region: An introductory review of key drivers 42 International Finance & Human resources L. Anthopoulos, G. M. Aspridis and L. Sdrolias 2012: European year of active ageing workforce. What happens to project managers over 46 60? Tsimpida Chrysanthi and Spyridis Theodoros Spillover effects of foreign direct investment: A literature review on recent studies 58 Dimitris Manolopoulos Extent of technology adaptation in MNE subsidiaries 64 Post Keynesian Economics and Banking Η επικαιρότητα της μετακεϋνσιανής προσέγγισης Ντόβα Λεμονιά Η γενική θεωρία της απασχόλησης του τόκου και του χρήματος του J.M. KEYNES. 69 Κοκκινόπουλος Αλέξανδρος Διεθνές εμπόριο στη Μετακεϋνσιανή οικονομική 78 Μιαρής Γιώργος και Μπόθου Ελένη Πολιτικές επιλογές: Μονεταριστικά οικονομικά σε σύγκριση με τα μετακεϋνσιανά 87 οικονομικά Ανδριανοπούλου Αικατερίνη Η επίδραση της οικονομικής κρίσης στον τουρισμό 96 Παπουτσάκη Μαρία Βασικά χαρακτηριστικά της ισλαμικής τραπεζικής 115 Foreign direct investment, Risk Management and Employment Anagnostopoulos Achilleas The importance of the labour market monitoring organisations in Greece s workplaces 116 i
Page Virginia Zhelyazkova Climate change and environmental risk management for financial institutions 122 Panagiotis Kontakos Literature review of FDI in Turkey and the prospects for its EU entrance 123 Alexandros G. Psychogios, Leslie T. Szamosi and Rea Prouska HRM in SME s from a peripheral perspective: Preliminary findings 129 Current issues in economic growth: From the causes of the fiscal crisis to macromicro alternatives to economic growth Eleni Vangjeli, Marinela Teneqexhi and Stela Zoto An empirical analysis of the impact of different factors on economic growth in Albania 134 Theresia Gunawan and Agus Gunawan The mediating role of ambidexterity on the relationship of entrepreneurial orientation and 137 innovation Daphne Athanasouli and Pantelis Sklias Institutional constraints, corruption and firm development. Which institutions matter 144 under corruption? Vladimir Marinković and Nebojsa Stefanovic A specter is haunting Europe for the second time 145 The Political Economy of the European Union Christos Nikas Euro: A currency only for the sunny days? 150 Spyridon Roukanas The political economy of the Greek crisis: A series of failures 151 Αριστείδης Μπιτζένης και Βασίλειος Α. Βλάχος Τα αίτια της παγκόσμιας κρίσης και το ελληνικό αδιέξοδο 158 The Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis Επίκαιρες προσεγγίσεις σε θέματα της ελληνικής οικονομίας Αμανατίδου Πασχαλίνα Ελληνικές ξένες άμεσες επενδύσεις και ο ρόλος της Ελλάδας στην Νοτιοανατολική 163 Ευρώπη Σπυροπούλου Χριστίνα Μαρία Φτώχεια και ανισότητα στην Ελλάδα 179 Κυζίκου Παπαστεφάνου Ευθαλία Ευρωπαϊκή κρίση. Έχει μέλλον η Ευρωπαϊκή Ενωση; 197 Δήμητρα Αιμιλία Πινακουλάκη Εκτός και εντός ευρώ και η παγκόσμια οικονομική κρίση 2008: Οι περιπτώσεις της 198 Σουηδίας και της Φιλανδίας Ανδρουλάκης Μανώλης Ανεργία στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση από μετα-κεϋνσιανή σκοπιά 206 The Institutional Aspects of Current Developments Konstantinos J. Hazakis Is institutional analysis useful in analyzing special economic zones? 217 Konstantinos J. Hazakis and Panagiotis G. Ioannidis From Kapodistrias to Kallikrates: Intraregional cooperation and local governments 218 institutional reforms in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Kostas Chryssogonos Corruption in the Greek political system as a cause of financial collapse 231 Ioannis A. Tampakoudis, Konstantina A. Nikandrou and Dimitra A. Fylantzopoulou Sustainable development Indicators: Examining their effect on emerging, frontier and developed markets 232 ii
Page Επιχειρηματικότητα σε εγχώριο και διακρατικό επίπεδο Ευστράτιος-Ιωάννης Καρτάλης Οι συνθήκες για την επιχειρηματικότητα στην Ελλάδα μέσα από την ανάλυση των 247 δεδομένων της έκθεσης Doing Business 2013 Νικόλαος Βαρσακέλης, Ηρακλής Γωνιάδης και Γαλατσίδας Γεώργιος Επιχειρηματικότητα και ανάπτυξη: H αντίληψη των νέων για το ατομικό επιχειρείν και 272 προτάσεις πολίτικης για την τόνωσή του Μποζίνης Αθανάσιος Ανάπτυξη της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης στην κοινωνία της πληροφορίας: Η 273 περιπτωσιολογική μελέτη της Ελλάδος Pyrros Papadimitriou The determinants of value in the new economy: From scarcity to short-lived innovation 278 Current EU issues Despina Anagnostopoulou EU policies and common European sales law 283 Φωτεινή Ασδεράκη To be or not to be? Το αβέβαιο βήμα του Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση 301 Δημήτρης Σκιαδάς Πολιτική της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης για την προώθηση των επενδύσεων: Το καθεστώς 319 μετά τη Λισσαβόνα Ioannis Papadopoulos The controversy over fiscal multipliers as a case of triangular diplomacy: The limits of coregulation in the management of the eurozone 322 Nikolaos Charalampopoulos The internationalization of political violence 330 International Relations/Politics Ioannis Konstantinidis Voting in a crisis: the as-good-as-randomly-assigned voting preferences of Greeks at the 331 6 May 2012 general elections Μοσχίδης Στράτος Ανάπτυξη πρότυπου διαδικτυακού πληροφοριακού συστήματος για την οργάνωση των 345 λειτουργιών ενός πολιτικού σχηματισμού Markos Troulis and Kyriakos Mikelis Deception among allies: Uncertainty and distrust on the eve of the Iraq war in 2003 346 Nikoloudi Anastasia and Tsalampouni Katerina Κράτος πρόνοιας Vs κράτος φυσικών πόρων 352 Επιχειρηματικότητα και Οικονομική/Πολιτική Ανάπτυξη Αθανάσιος Η. Μποζίνης Διεθνής πολιτική επικοινωνία και οικονομική ανάπτυξη: Η περιπτωσιολογική μελέτη της 353 Ελλάδος Μακέδος Ιωάννης Η συνεργασία μικρομεσαίων επιχειρήσεων μέσω Clusters «ασπίδα» απέναντι στην κρίση 357 Μποζίνης Η. Αθανάσιος και Τζιώγας Αθ. Χαράλαμπος Ενεργειακοί πόροι και οικονομικοπολιτική ανάπτυξη στα πλαίσια της παγκόσμιας 363 οικονομικής κρίσης: Η περιπτωσιολογική μελέτη ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας στην Ελλάδα Elias Gounopoulos and Chris A. Vassiliadis Promoting a film tourism destination New perspectives with the use of ICT 368 iii
Page THALIS partners Πασσάδης Σπυρίδων Εννοιολογική προσέγγιση της αδήλωτης εργασίας / εισφοροδιαφυγής: Αίτια αυτών και 374 συνέπειές τους στην παραγωγικότητα της εργασίας και την κοινωνική συνοχή Panagiotis Kontakos Onshore and underwater crude oil & gas pipelines: A comparative analysis of returns to 380 scale Καφτεράνης Χαρίσιος Εμπόδια στην καινοτομία των ΜΜΕ στην Ελλάδα. 383 Vasileios A. Vlachos Estimations of shadow economic activities and corruption with direct survey data 391 iv
Introduction by Aristidis Bitzenis and Vasileios A. Vlachos The International Conference on International Business (ICIB) aims to bring together academics and practitioners in order to share ideas and methods for the exploration of foreign direct investment (FDI), the role of multinational corporations (MNCs) and the complexity of the globalized business environment. ICIB 2013 took place on 16-18 May 2013 and was organized in parallel sessions of English and Greek. The conference focused on but not limited to empirical research in the following fields: Entrepreneurship & international business environment FDI and European economic integration FDI, trade and regional integration FDI and transition Impact and determinants of FDI Financial management MNCs and political strategies Mergers & Acquisitions Social entrepreneurship Globalization, MNCs, competitiveness and development e Tourism enterprise and industry -business International political economy and business Sustainable business Labour economics and industrial relations European Union enlargement Global budgetary crisis management by the European Union institutions Shadow economy and corruption ICIB is supported by a number of participating journals and follows a specific publication procedure (for details the reader should refer to www.icib.eu). The papers included in the proceedings were presented at ICIB 2013 and have completed the final stage of the publication procedure. The papers are grouped according to the general themes of ICIB 2013 sessions. The pluralism of ICIB 2013 is reflected in the volume at hand, which covers major interlinked issues of international business through thirteen regular and teleconference sessions where over 60 papers were presented. The key issues considered were the consequences of the eurozone crisis, human resources, FDI and economic development, entrepreneurship and international relations. Some papers do not appear in full text as their full versions (copyrights) are property of participating journals or edited volumes committed to ICIB. The organizing committee of ICIB 2013 would like to thank all participants organizers, members of the scientific committee, presenters, keynote speakers, sponsors, etc. and aims for an even more successful and stimulating ICIB 2014. 1
Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of Greece and 35 other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013: Some New Facts by Friedrich Schneider *) 1. Size and Development of the Shadow Economies in 36 Countries In the Tables 1.1 to 1.4 the size and development of 31 European and of five non-european shadow economies over the period 2003-2013 is presented 1. If we first consider the size and development of the shadow economy of Greece (Spain), it had a value of 28.2% (22.2%) in the year 2003, which then steadily declined to 24.3% (18.4%) in the year 2008, increased slightly to 25.0% (19.5%) in the year 2009 and since then decreased to 23.6% (18.6%) for the year 2013 (forecast). 2 If we consider the Mediterranean countries Italy and Greece, Italy had a shadow economy of 26.1% in the year 2003 which declined to 21.4% in the year 2008 and increased to 22.0% in 2009 and then decreased again to 21.1% in the year 2013 (forecast). In Greece we had a shadow economy of 28.2% in 2003 which decreased to 24.3% in 2008, increased to 25.0% in 2009 and decreased again to 23.6% in 2013 (forecast). If we consider the results of the average size of the shadow economy of the 27 European Union countries, we realize, that the shadow economy in the year 2003 was 22.3% (of official GDP), decreased to 19.2% in 2008 and increased to 19.8 % in 2009 and then decreased again to 18.4 % in 2013 (Table 1.1). If we compare the average of 31 European countries, in 2003 the average size was 22.4%, decreased to 19.4% in 2008, and increased to 19.9% in 2009 and decreased to 18.5% in 2013 (Table 1.2). If we consider the development of the shadow economy of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the USA, we find a similar movement over time (see Table 1.3.); in 2013 these 5 countries had an average size of the shadow economy of 8.6%, in 2010 this value was 9.7%. If we consider the last 2 years (2012 and 2013) and compare them with the year 2008, we realize that, in most countries, we had again a decrease of the size and development of the shadow economy. This is due to the recovery from the world wide economic and financial crises. Hence, the most important reason for this decrease is, that, if the official economy is recovering or booming, people have less incentive to undertake additional activities in the shadow economy and to earn extra black money. *) Prof. Dr. Dr.h.c.mult. Friedrich Schneider, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University, Altenbergerst. 69, A-4040 Linz, Austria, Phone:+43 (0)732 2468-8210, Fax: +43 (0)732 2468-8209, E-mail: friedrich.schneider@jku.at, http://www.econ.jku.at/schneider 1 The calculation of the size and development of the shadow economy is done with the MIMIC (Multiple Indicators and Multiple Courses) estimation procedure. Using the MIMIC estimation procedure one gets only relative values and one needs other methods like the currency demand approach, to calibrate the MIMIC values into absolute ones. For a detailed explanation see Friedrich Schneider, editor, Handbook on the Shadow Economy, Cheltenham (UK): Edward Elgar Publishing Company, 2011. 2 The calculated values for 2013 are projections based on the forecasts of the official figures (GDP, unemployment, etc.) of these countries. 2
The only exceptions are Greece and Spain, where the recession of the official economy is so strong, that it even reduced the demand of the shadow economy activities due to the severe income losses of the Greek (Spanish) people; the Greek (Spanish) shadow economy will decrease to 23.6% (18.6%) of official GDP in 2013; a decrease of 0.4 (0.6) percentage points compared to the year 2012! Furthermore, there are three different developments with respect to the size of the shadow economy: (1) The eastern countries or the new European Union members, such as Bulgaria, South-Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have higher shadow economies than the old European Union countries, like Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy; hence, one can observe an increase of the size of the shadow economy from west to east. (2) Also, I observe an increase in the size and development of the shadow economy from north to south. On average, the southern European countries have considerably higher shadow economies than those of Central and Western Europe. This can also be demonstrated by Figures 1 and 2. (3) The five other highly developed OECD countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the United States in Table 1.3) have much lower shadow economies with about 10.1 % of GDP average in 2009 which decreased to 9.2% in 2012. 2. Shadow Economies in developed OECD Countries: What are the driving Forces In two papers by Friedrich Schneider and Andreas Buehn, 2012 and Andreas Buehn and Friedrich Schneider, 2012, new investigations have been undertaken to tackle two questions: (1) What are the driving forces of shadow economy in highly developed OECD countries, and (2) can we make a calculation of the size and development of tax evasion of OECD countries over the period 1999 to 2010 3? In table 2.1, we first show the average relative impact (in per cent) of the shadow economy determinants in 38 OECD countries over the period 1999 to 2010. If we consider table 2.1 we clearly see that indirect taxation has, by far, the biggest average impact of 29.4% (in per cent) on the shadow economy of the 38 OECD countries over the period 1999 to 2010. This is followed by selfemployment with 22.2% and unemployment with 16.9%, followed by personal income tax with 13.1%. Greece shows a slightly different picture: Self-employment has, by far, the biggest influence on the size and development of the shadow economy of 37.6%, followed by indirect taxation with 21.8%, then unemployment with 18.0%. Finally, in table 2.2, the size and development of tax evasion (in per cent) of the official GDP of 38 OECD countries accounting for indirect taxation and self-employment and their driving forces is 3 Compare here the studies of Schneider and Buehn (2012) and of Buehn and Schneider (2012). 3
presented. Table 2.2 shows clearly, that we have a declining trend with average values of tax evasion of 3.6% in 1999. This value decreased to 2.8% in the year 2010 overall 38 countries. If we consider Greece again, the value was 5.6% in 1999, which declined (with some ups and downs) to 4.0% in the year 2010. That means that the Greek government was, to some extent, successful in fighting tax evasion 4. 3. Concluding Remarks In general, we realize that we have some dynamic and interesting results of the development of the shadow economies, which are different for the 38 OECD countries and their driving forces are different, too. Also, the size and development of tax evasion figures point to different developments in these 38 OECD countries, which are computed here for the first time on a longer time series basis. 4. References Buehn, Andreas and Friedrich Schneider (2012), Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Countries: What do we (not) know?, CESifo Paper Discussion Series, November 2012, CESifo, University Munich, Munich, 2012. Feld, Lars P. and Friedrich Schneider (2010), Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries, German Economic Review, 11/2, 2010, pp. 109-149. Schneider, Friedrich (2005), Shadow Economies Around the World: What do we really know?, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 21/2, September 2005, pp. 598-642. Schneider, Friedrich (2011), (editor), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, Cheltenham (UK), Edward Elgar Publishing Company. Schneider, Friedrich and Andreas Buehn (2012), Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What are the Driving Forces?, IZA Discussion Paper No. 6891, Institute for the Study of Labour, University of Bonn, Bonn, 2012. Schneider, Friedrich, Andreas Buehn and Claudio E. Montenegro (2010), New Estimates for the Shadow Economies All Over the World, International Economic Journal, 24/4, pp. 443-461, December 2010. 4 The precise calculation to reach these figures is shown in the paper by Buehn and Schneider (2012). The figures are developed from a MIMIC estimation of the Size and Development of the Shadow Economy of these 38 Countries. The Shadow Economy is broken down into illegal activities of the Shadow Economy and legal (explicit) Shadow Economy Activities (these are legal activities but are produced in the shadow economy, eg. repairing a car or building a house) and, from this, the tax evasion figures are derived. 4
Figure 1: Size of the Shadow Economy of 31 European Countries in 2013 (in % of off. GDP) Size of the shadow economy (in % of GDP) 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 31,2 28,4 28,4 28,0 27,6 26,5 25,5 25,2 24,3 23,8 23,6 23,1 22,1 21,1 19,0 18,6 18,5 16,4 15,5 15,0 13,9 13,6 13,0 13,0 13,0 12,2 9,9 9,7 9,1 8,0 7,5 7,1 Bulgaria Romania Croatia Lithuania Estonia Turkey Latvia Cyprus Malta Poland Greece Slovenia Hungary Italy Portugal Spain Average Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Germany Ireland France United Kingdom Netherlands Luxemburg Austria Switzerland Source: own calculations, December 2012 5
Figure 2: Size of the Shadow Economy of 31 European Countries in 2012 (in % of off. GDP) Size of the shadow economy (in % of GDP) 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 31,9 29,1 29,0 28,5 28,2 27,2 26,1 25,6 25,3 24,4 24,0 23,6 22,5 21,6 19,4 19,2 19,0 16,8 16,0 15,5 14,3 14,2 13,4 13,3 13,3 12,7 10,8 10,1 9,5 8,2 7,6 7,6 0,0 Bulgaria Romania Croatia Lithuania Estonia Turkey Latvia Cyprus Malta Poland Greece Slovenia Hungary Italy Portugal Spain Average Belgium Czech Republic Slovakia Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Germany Ireland France United Kingdom Netherlands Luxemburg Austria Switzerland Source: own calculations, March 2012 6
Table 1.1: Size of the Shadow Economy of 27 European Countries over 2003 2013 (in % of off. GDP) Country / Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Austria 10.8 11 10.3 9.7 9.4 8.1 8.47 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.5 Belgium 21.4 20.7 20.1 19.2 18.3 17.5 17.8 17.4 17.1 16.8 16.4 Bulgaria 35.9 35.3 34.4 34 32.7 32.1 32.5 32.6 32.3 31.9 31.2 South-Cyprus 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.9 26.5 26 26.5 26.2 26 25.6 25.2 Czech Republic 19.5 19.1 18.5 18.1 17 16.6 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.0 15.5 Denmark 17.4 17.1 16.5 15.4 14.8 13.9 14.3 14 13.8 13.4 13.0 Estonia 30.7 30.8 30.2 29.6 29.5 29 29.6 29.3 28.6 28.2 27.6 Finland 17.6 17.2 16.6 15.3 14.5 13.8 14.2 14 13.7 13.3 13.0 France 14.7 14.3 13.8 12.4 11.8 11.1 11.6 11.3 11 10.8 9.9 Germany 17.1 16.1 15.4 15 14.7 14.2 14.6 13.9 13.7 13.3 13.0 Greece 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.2 25.1 24.3 25 25.4 24.3 24.0 23.6 Hungary 25 24.7 24.5 24.4 23.7 23 23.5 23.3 22.8 22.5 22.1 Ireland 15.4 15.2 14.8 13.4 12.7 12.2 13.1 13 12.8 12.7 12.2 Italy 26.1 25.2 24.4 23.2 22.3 21.4 22 21.8 21.2 21.6 21.1 Latvia 30.4 30 29.5 29 27.5 26.5 27.1 27.3 26.5 26.1 25.5 Lithuania 32 31.7 31.1 30.6 29.7 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.0 28.5 28.0 Luxemburg (Grand- Duché) 9.8 9.8 9.9 10 9.4 8.5 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.0 Malta 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.9 26 25.8 25.3 24.3 Netherlands 12.7 12.5 12 10.9 10.1 9.6 10.2 10 9.8 9.5 9.1 Poland 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26 25.3 25.9 25.4 25 24.4 23.8 Portugal 22.2 21.7 21.2 20.1 19.2 18.7 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.0 Romania 33.6 32.5 32.2 31.4 30.2 29.4 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.4 Slovenia 26.7 26.5 26 25.8 24.7 24 24.6 24.3 24.1 23.6 23.1 Spain 22.2 21.9 21.3 20.2 19.3 18.4 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.2 18.6 Slovakia 18.4 18.2 17.6 17.3 16.8 16 16.8 16.4 16 15.5 15.0 Sweden 18.6 18.1 17.5 16.2 15.6 14.9 15.4 15 14.7 14.3 13.9 United Kingdom 12.2 12.3 12 11.1 10.6 10.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.1 9.7 27 EU-Countries / Average (unweighted) 22.3 21.9 21.5 20.8 19.9 19.2 19.8 19.6 19.2 18.9 18.4 Source: Own Calculations, December 2012 7
Table 1.2: Size of the Shadow Economy of 4 European Countries (Non EU-Members) over 2003 2013 (in % of off. GDP) Country / Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Croatia 32.3 32.3 31.5 31.2 30.4 29.6 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.4 Norway 18.6 18.2 17.6 16.1 15.4 14.7 15.3 15.1 14.8 14.2 13.6 Switzerland 9.5 9.4 9 8.5 8.2 7.9 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.1 Turkey 32.2 31.5 30.7 30.4 29.1 28.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 4 Non EU-Countries / Average 23.2 22.9 22.2 21.6 20.8 20.2 20.7 20.3 19.9 19.5 18.9 Unweighted Average of all 31 European Countries 22.4 22.1 21.6 20.9 20.1 19.4 19.9 19.7 19.3 19.0 18.5 Source: Own Calculations, December 2012 Table 1.3: Size of the Shadow Economy of 5 Highly Developed Non- European Countries over 2003 2013 (in % of off. GDP) Country / Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Australia 13.7 13.2 12.6 11.4 11.7 10.6 10.9 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.4 Canada 15.3 15.1 14.3 13.2 12.6 12 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.5 10.8 Japan 11 10.7 10.3 9.4 9 8.8 9.5 9.2 9 8.8 8.1 New Zealand 12.3 12.2 11.7 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.9 9.6 9.3 8.8 8.0 United States USA 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.5 7.2 7 7.6 7.2 7 7.0 6.6 Other OECD Countries / Unweighted Average 12.16 11.92 11.42 10.38 10.06 9.56 10.1 9.7 9.46 9.18 8.6 Source: Own Calculations, December 2012 8
Table 1.4: Size of the Shadow Economy of Various Unweighted Averages over 2003 2013 (in % of off. GDP) Averages / Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27 EU-Countries / Average (unweighted) 22.3 21.9 21.5 20.8 19.9 19.3 19.8 19.5 19.4 18.9 18.4 4 Non EU-Countries / Average (unweighted) 23.2 22.9 22.2 21.6 20.8 20.2 20.7 20.3 20.0 19.5 18.9 5 Other OECD Countries / Average (unweighted) 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4 10.1 9.6 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.18 8.6 All 36 Countries / Average (unweighted) 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.4 18.7 18.0 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.6 17.1 Source: Own Calculations, December 2012 9
Table 2.1: Average relative impact (in %) of the shadow economy determinant s in 38 OECD countries (1999:2010) Country Average size of the shadow economy Personal income tax Indirect taxes Tax morale Unemployment Selfemployment GDP growth Business freedom Australia 13.8 21.3 25.4 7.4 15.8 19.3 0.9 9.9 Austria 9.8 18.5 27.4 11.6 12.1 20.5 0.8 9.1 Belgium 21.5 19.2 20.2 19.1 16.5 17.3 0.4 7.2 Bulgaria 34.6 5.1 37.7 5.7 25.9 17.5 1.9 6.2 Canada 15.6 22.1 17.5 7.7 19.2 22.4 0.7 10.4 Chile 19.4 1.8 35.3 5.5 17.3 32.7 0.8 6.7 South-Cyprus 27.2 4.3 35.9 9.1 11.2 29.9 0.8 8.7 Czech Rep. 17.6 7.8 30.7 9.4 19.0 23.5 1.2 8.3 Denmark 17.3 34.6 33.5 4.0 9.5 9.9 0.3 8.2 Estonia 21.7 10.0 36.0 11.7 21.8 10.4 1.8 8.3 Finland 17.4 19.7 29.1 8.7 18.6 15.2 0.8 7.9 France 14.8 12.8 24.3 15.5 23.2 15.1 0.4 8.6 Germany 15.7 16.6 24.2 8.3 24.3 16.9 0.6 9.1 Greece 27.0 5.8 21.8 10.4 18.0 37.6 0.7 5.7 Hungary 24.1 12.3 34.9 6.4 18.6 18.5 1.2 8.0 Iceland 15.2 19.9 39.7 6.5 7.1 17.9 0.6 8.2 Ireland 16.1 12.5 36.4 7.9 12.5 21.3 1.0 8.5 Italy 26.9 15.6 18.9 9.0 18.6 31.0 0.1 6.8 Korea 26.3 5.7 27.3 3.4 9.8 44.3 1.4 8.0 Latvia 22.2 8.2 32.3 13.3 23.3 14.6 1.8 6.6 Lithuania 25.4 9.0 28.8 17.5 19.9 17.1 1.5 6.1 Luxembourg 9.6 13.2 33.4 20.0 10.4 11.9 1.2 9.8 Malta 27.3 5.9 39.7 3.2 20.0 21.2 0.8 9.3 Mexico 30.0 2.3 42.1 10.2 5.9 33.8 0.4 5.3 Netherlands 13.2 13.6 32.5 13.0 10.4 19.7 0.8 10.0 New Zealand 12.2 21.8 25.4 8.4 11.9 22.9 0.6 9.1 Norway 18.6 21.2 31.5 12.5 10.8 13.0 0.5 10.5 Poland 26.4 6.1 27.8 7.8 26.1 25.7 1.3 5.3 Portugal 22.7 8.1 29.9 8.7 14.6 31.1 0.4 7.2 Romania 32.2 4.2 24.5 14.2 13.1 37.7 1.1 5.2 Slovak Rep. 17.5 4.8 31.7 6.4 34.9 13.7 1.5 7.1 Slovenia 25.2 9.6 33.9 9.6 15.4 21.7 1.2 8.6 Spain 22.8 10.6 17.9 10.4 29.2 23.8 0.6 7.5 Sweden 18.6 23.5 30.6 8.7 15.2 13.2 0.8 8.0 Switzerland 8.3 17.7 30.7 9.0 9.6 23.8 0.5 8.7 Turkey 30.6 4.9 31.4 0.7 16.4 41.4 0.6 4.6 UK 12.5 18.2 30.8 8.1 14.3 18.0 0.6 9.9 United States 8.7 27.5 5.1 13.2 22.0 16.0 0.9 15.4 Average 20.3 13.1 29.4 9.5 16.9 22.2 0.9 8.1 Source: Schneider and Buehn (2012). 10
Table 2.2: Size and development of tax evasion (in % of GDP) in 38 OECD countries accounting for indirect taxation and for self-employment as driving forces Country 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average Australia 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 Austria 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 Belgium 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.4 Bulgaria 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.8 5.7 Canada 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 Chile 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 South-Cyprus 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.4 Czech Rep. 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.9 Denmark 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 Estonia - 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.2 Finland 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 France 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 Germany 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 Greece 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.7 4.0 4.8 Hungary 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.8 Iceland 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 Ireland 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 Italy 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 Korea, Rep. 6.7 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.8 5.6 Latvia 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.1 Lithuania 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.7 3.2 3.5 Luxembourg 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 11