OVERVIEW 7/12/2017 Sector Analyst: Samvel Shahnazaryan (MBA) EMail: samvelicon@gmail.com Tel: 6949313366 Financial Industry Mutual fund n Asset management Services Mrk Cap 8.130.828 Employees Last Trade 19.47 Price Range (52 week) Average Volume 12.83 19.95 Shares Outstanding 417.608 Enterprise Value (Est) 10.746.391,14 alphatrust andromeda Investment Trust Management S.A The Fund was established on 25.07.2000 and its shares were listed at the ASE on 19th December 2001. During the fiscal year 2002, the Fund merged with alphatrust ORION ClosedEnd Fund by absorbing its shares. During the fiscal year 2004, the Fund absorbed alphatrust ASSET MANAGER ClosedEnd Fund. The Fund is based in Athens, Greece, with its main offices located at 21 Tatoiou srt, P.O. Code 145 61. The Fund s Charter has a business life of fifty years from its founding date and its corporate business, according to Article 3 of the Incorporation Articles, is: The exclusive management of financial assets, according to the provisions of the Law 1969/1991 on Asset Management Companies and Mutual Fund Management Companies. The Company may cooperate with and/or participate in any related company with any form of participation according to the abovementioned objective. Highlight & Recent Developments Profitable in the first half of 2017 for Andromeda. The total proceeds of the company amounted to 2,536 million. Alpha Trust Andromeda: The tax audit for the year 2016 was completed A tax certificate was issued with a "no reservation" conclusion. Andromeda: At 0.364% the share of treasury shares The acquisition of 410 own shares at an average price of Euro 14.87 per share, totaling Euro 6.109,51, was made on 22/5 by Andromeda. Andromeda: Mr. Phaidon Theodoros Tamvakakis bought shares Purchase of 300 common registered shares, total net value of 4.140,00 euro.
Assumptions Assumptions Capex 0,00% EBITDA Margin 93,77% ERM (Market Risk Premium) 5,40% beta 0,09 g 2,00% Risk Free (10y GGB) 4,50% Kd 5,20% K 5,25% Tax Rate 29% Dividend Tax Rate 15% Debt Tax Rate 10% Share Price as in 07/12/2017 19,47 Number of Shares 417.608,00 Market Cap 8.130.827,76
Ratios Mrk Price as in 27/11/2017 19,47 Valuation 27/11/2017 Shares 417.608,00 P/E 0,0 Equity 7.714.751,00 P/BV 1,05 Earnings 703.861,22 EV/Sales 0,69 EV 828.494,61 EV/EBITDA 1,08 Sales 1.203.254,08 EV/EBIT 1,08 EBITDA 764.114,13 Net Debt/EBITDA 0,72 EBIT 764.114,13 Net Debt/Equity 1.033.022,92 DIVIDEND 0,00 Dividend yield 0,00 Mrk Cap 8.130.827,76 Total Liabilities 230.178,81 MINORITY 0,00 Current Assets 9.189.501,18 EPS 1,69 Mrk Price as estimated 2017e 26,82 Valuation 2017e Shares 417.608,00 P/E 41,80 Equity 7.716.319,00 P/BV 1,45 Earnings 267.945,05 EV/Sales 34,73 EV 11.200.007,96 EV/EBITDA 37,03 Sales 322.513,01 EV/EBIT 40,41 EBITDA 302.427,76 Net Debt/EBITDA 1,50 EBIT 277.186,39 Net Debt/Equity 1.033.024,15 DIVIDEND 0,00 Dividend yield 0,00 EPS 0,64 Mrk Cap 11.200.007,96 Total Liabilities 0,00 MINORITY 0,00 Current Assets 0,00 Ratios 2016 2017e Current Ratio 39,92 15,61 Gross Profit Margin 85,92% 0,36% ROA 7,66% 2,74% ROCE 7,85% 2,93% ROE 9,12% 3,47% Debt Ratio 6,14% 4,80% P/E 0,00 41,80
(in EUR ) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Noncurrent assets Total noncurrent assets 3.367,22 3.367,22 3.367,22 2.480,00 3.145,42 3.089,96 3.020,65 2.934,01 3.047,51 Current assets Other receivables 675.417,20 548.869,41 90.578,25 65.860,50 345.181,34 262.622,38 191.060,62 216.181,21 253.761,38 Total financial instruments 10.620.244,47 7.872.593,36 7.801.946,06 8.351.184,74 8.661.492,16 8.171.804,08 8.246.606,76 8.357.771,93 8.359.418,73 Cash and cash equivalents 565.054,14 1.095.414,22 576.451,12 772.455,94 752.343,86 799.166,28 725.104,30 762.267,59 759.720,51 Total current assets 11.860.715,81 9.516.876,99 8.468.975,43 9.189.501,18 9.759.017,35 9.233.592,74 9.162.771,68 9.336.220,74 9.372.900,63 Total assets 11.864.083,03 9.520.244,21 8.472.342,65 9.191.981,18 9.762.162,77 9.236.682,70 9.165.792,32 9.339.154,74 9.375.948,13 Shareholders equity Share capital 6.688.000,00 6.681.728,00 6.681.728,00 6.681.728,00 6.683.296,00 6.682.120,00 6.682.218,00 6.682.340,50 6.682.493,63 Capital at a premium 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 1.033.023,00 Other reserves 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 2.586.211,41 Results carried forward 914.992,52 980.376,56 2.034.520,95 1.330.659,73 857.641,18 1.300.799,61 1.380.905,37 1.217.501,47 1.189.211,91 Treasury shares 0,01 0 0 8.500,31 2.125,08 2.656,35 3.320,43 4.150,54 3.063,10 Total equity 11.222.226,92 9.320.585,85 8.266.441,46 8.961.802,37 9.442.764,15 8.997.898,46 8.917.226,61 9.079.922,90 9.109.453,03 Liabilities Debts from taxes 7883,81 0 0 20.934,35 7.204,54 7.034,72 8.793,40 10.991,75 8.506,10 Dividends payable 38.707,21 16.527,18 9.565,66 1.609,40 16.602,36 11.076,15 9.713,39 9.750,33 11.785,56 Alpha trust Mutual Fund Management S.A. 399.236,48 6.046,79 574,65 2.590,80 102.112,18 27.831,11 33.277,18 41.452,82 51.168,32 Sundry creditors 16.080,06 27.311,81 26.228,23 35.760,66 26.345,19 28.911,47 29.311,39 30.082,18 28.662,56 Liabilities to the shareholders from share capital decrease 163.166,90 163.049,60 163.022,00 163.022,00 163.065,13 163.039,68 163.037,20 163.041,00 163.045,75 Selfemployed tax 97,00 516,00 83,00 3.976,95 1.168,24 1.436,05 1.666,06 2.061,82 1.583,04 Tax and stamp duty of BoD fees 14.400,00 4.001,10 4.143,00 0,00 5.636,03 3.445,03 3.306,01 3.096,77 3.870,96 Checks payable 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 2.284,65 Other liabilities 595.265,09 203.209,95 196.335,53 207.635,06 300.611,41 226.947,99 232.882,50 242.019,24 250.615,28 Total liabilities 641.856,11 219.737,13 205.901,19 230.178,81 625.029,72 472.006,85 484.271,79 504.780,56 521.522,23 Total equity and liabilities 11.864.083,03 9.540.322,98 8.472.342,65 9.191.981,18 10.067.793,87 9.469.905,30 9.401.498,40 9.584.703,45 9.630.975,26 Shareholders Structure ALPHA TRUST MUTUAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A 103,358 24.75% REGINA COMPANY INC. 45,561 10.91% EUROBANK ERGASIAS S.A. 27,395 6.56% NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. 21,214 5.08% ALFA ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A. 20,880 5.00% Retail 199,199 48% Total 417,608 100% Free Float 199,199 48%
Estimated Financial Statment Profit & Loss ( ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Sales 2.363.322,23 1.036.672,11 558.228,06 1.203.254,08 322.513,010 762.883,545 542.698,278 652.790,911 597.744,594 % change 143,87% 46,15% 315,55% 73,20% 136,54% 28,86% 20,29% 8,43% Cost of Goods sold 815.268,47 267.997,99 218.190,84 169.363,01 321.362,094 774.425,736 563.545,167 695.181,852 655.679,737 % change 67,13% 18,58% 22,38% 89,75% 140,98% 27,23% 23,36% 5,68% Gross Profit 1.548.053,760 1.304.670,100 229,627 1.033.891,070 1.150,916 11.542,191 20.846,889 42.390,941 57.935,142 % change 184,28% 100,02% 450148,04% 99,89% 1102,87% 80,61% 103,34% 36,67% % margin 65,50% 125,85% 0,04% 85,92% 0,36% 1,51% 3,84% 6,49% 9,69% EBITDA 1.344.168,410 1.554.576,580 1.044.772,960 764.114,130 302.427,758 715.373,188 508.900,473 612.136,830 560.518,652 % change 215,65% 32,79% 173,14% 60,42% 136,54% 28,86% 20,29% 8,43% % margin 56,88% 149,96% 187,16% 63,50% 93,77% 93,77% 93,77% 93,77% 93,77% Depreciation 100.965,47 0,00 0,00 0,00 25.241,368 6.310,342 7.887,927 9.859,909 12.324,886 EBIT 1.243.202,940 1.554.576,580 1.044.772,960 764.114,130 277.186,390 709.062,846 501.012,546 602.276,921 548.193,765 % change 225,05% 32,79% 173,14% 63,72% 155,81% 29,34% 20,21% 8,98% % margin 52,60% 149,96% 187,16% 63,50% 85,95% 92,95% 92,32% 92,26% 91,71% Financials 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 PBT 1.243.202,94 1.554.576,58 1.044.772,96 764.114,13 277.186,390 709.062,846 501.012,546 602.276,921 548.193,765 % change 225,05% 32,79% 173,14% 63,72% 155,81% 29,34% 20,21% 8,98% % margin 52,60% 149,96% 187,16% 63,50% 85,95% 92,95% 92,32% 92,26% 91,71% Taxes/Other 14.602,150 12.978,090 9.371,430 13,685 9.241,339 7.901,136 6.631,897 5.947,014 7.430,347 Net Income 1.228.600,79 1.567.554,67 1.054.144,39 703.861,22 267.945,052 701.161,710 494.380,648 596.329,907 540.763,419 % change 227,59% 32,75% 166,77% 61,93% 161,68% 29,49% 20,62% 9,32% % margin 51,99% 151,21% 188,84% 58,50% 83,08% 91,91% 91,10% 91,35% 90,47% Estimated Cash Flows Cash Flows ( ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Net Income 1.228.600,790 1.567.554,670 1.054.144,390 703.861,220 267.945,052 701.161,710 494.380,648 596.329,907 540.763,419 Plus: Deprications & Amortizations 100.965,470 0,000 0,000 0,000 25.241,368 6.310,342 7.887,927 9.859,909 12.324,886 Plus: Δ Provisions 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Plus: Payable Taxes 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Gross Cash Flow 1.329.566,260 1.567.554,670 1.054.144,390 703.861,220 293.186,419 707.472,052 502.268,575 606.189,816 553.088,305 Plus: Δ Trade and other Payables 212.459,520 11.231,750 1.083,580 9.532,430 9.415,470 2.566,283 399,916 770,790 1.419,621 Less: Δ Trade Receivables 553.377,320 126.547,790 458.291,160 24.717,750 279.320,840 82.558,965 71.561,759 25.120,592 37.580,177 Less: Δ Other Receivables 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Less: Δ Inventories 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Δ Working Capital 765.836,840 137.779,540 457.207,580 34.250,180 288.736,310 85.125,248 71.961,674 24.349,802 38.999,798 Operating Cash Flow 563.729,420 1.429.775,130 596.936,810 738.111,400 4.450,109 792.597,299 574.230,250 581.840,014 514.088,508 Less: CAPEX (Fixed Assets) 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Less: Δ Investments 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Free Cash Flow 563.729,420 1.429.775,130 596.936,810 738.111,400 4.450,109 792.597,299 574.230,250 581.840,014 514.088,508 Less: Dividends 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Plus: Δ Equity 3.421.823,000 6.272,000 0,000 0,000 1.568,000 1.176,000 98,000 122,500 153,125 Pluss: Δ Debt 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Δ Cash & Equivalents 652.223,420 530.360,080 518.963,100 196.004,820 20.112,085 46.822,429 74.061,984 37.163,295 2.547,086 Cash & Equvalents 565.054,140 1.095.414,220 576.451,120 772.455,940 752.343,855 799.166,284 725.104,300 762.267,595 759.720,508
Estimated Cash Flows DCF (EUR ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f Revenues 2.363.322,230 1.036.672,110 558.228,060 1.203.254,080 322.513,010 762.883,545 542.698,278 652.790,911 597.744,594 EBITDA 1.344.168,410 1.554.576,580 1.044.772,960 764.114,130 302.427,758 715.373,188 508.900,473 612.136,830 560.518,652 EBIT*(1 Tax Rate) 882.674,087 1.103.749,372 741.788,802 542.521,032 196.802,337 503.434,621 355.718,907 427.616,614 389.217,573 CAPEX 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Depreciations & Amortizations 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 CAPEX Depreciations 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 ΔWC 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Reinvestment 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Reinvestment (abs) 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Free Cash Flow 882.674,087 1.103.749,372 741.788,802 542.521,032 196.802,337 503.434,621 355.718,907 427.616,614 389.217,573 397.001,925 404.941,963 413.040,802 421.301,619 429.727,651 WACC 5,25% 5,44% 5,33% 5,36% 5,34% 5,37% 5,35% 5,36% 5,35% Discounted Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Discounted FCF 186.820,865 453.439,701 304.223,861 347.063,985 299.863,634 290.511,529 281.292,835 272.366,675 263.723,765 255.355,117 Discount Rate 94,9% 90,1% 85,5% 81,2% 77,0% 73,2% 69,5% 65,9% 62,6% 59,4% Υπολογισμός WACC (EUR ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Cash & Equivalents 565.054,140 1.095.414,220 576.451,120 772.455,940 752.343,855 799.166,284 725.104,300 762.267,595 759.720,508 Short Debt 586.367,250 196.408,200 189.824,880 222.307,810 298.727,035 226.816,981 234.419,177 245.567,751 251.382,736 Long Debt 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Net Cash/(Debt), Current Loan Value 21.313,110 899.006,020 386.626,240 550.148,130 453.616,820 572.349,303 490.685,123 516.699,844 508.337,772 FCFn 429.727,651 g 2,00% WACC 5% TV 13.112.411,887 PV of TV 7.791.729,178 Debt & Equity 8.152.140,870 7.231.821,740 7.744.201,520 7.580.679,630 7.677.210,940 7.558.478,458 7.640.142,637 7.614.127,916 7.622.489,988 g FCFn WACC 5,25% 5,44% 5,33% 5,36% 5,34% 5,37% 5,35% 5,36% 5,35% 2% 2026f
Methods Prices Weight DCF 26,82 50% P/E e 41,80 25% EV/EBITDA 37,03 25% Average Price 33,12 Expected Return 70,10% PV Cash Flows 2.954.661,97 PV of TV 7.791.729,18 EV 10.746.391,14 Net Debt 453.616,82 Fair Value Equity 11.200.007,96 Number of Shares 417.608,00 Target Price 26,82 Price 19,47 Expected Return 37,75% BUY INCREASE HOLD DECREASE SELL Consensus DO IT DO IT DO IT DON'T DO IT DON'T DO IT
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