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115-103()*/1392#"! / D* #( ;* 2 1!4/ 0 * (. 1392/9/5 : 1392/4/12 : O(6F 4 3 3 9! -e!m* 2 Q (IS 55!MWr 0h K! z) ' )!IS 0h Q!Mm WB =L.48= u9 0HM!A ) 4B!M3! H! ; 4 Q 2 4! ) 3 =P ) =PB 0h (!IS!M,!IS 0h M8 W ) =P ) =PB!M3 =!. 5 QM * =P ) =PB ; / 5 ) 3> \) * `?9!M4 8 ) =P!M4 8 ) 3P) = / )!H zr ] =M wu!4m wu / =S! V ) =C4 Q@9 ) =P 3!4M!M wu cs) 4 > =M wu /@ O!IS 0h! 2 M ) 4 > =PB 3 )49 8 ) 4 )4, 1' _,I \) [4 2r!.4=! 54 =PB ) =P =0h= ) =P!M4 8 (3P)! zr WO* 4M= 4 8 3 { ) 3 4 >!H zr WO* =* E ) =!IS!M, z) ' ) =P 0h WO* @ =S! V!IS, 44 ) =P 0h WM @ =C4 ) 3> )4? `?9!M4 8 (- (3P).=. C32 C22 : JEL #(*$P.!IS 0h (=P!M3 (=PB!M3:#( LB&" J0/4 = F 8 C IS ) 5 4 ) =./ 3^M R/.1 email: salman.stdeh@yah.cm (P [^ 4) J* R = F 8 C J4 ) IS 4 J.2 email: faribaabedy@gmail.cm

(* uh!8 (2e!L 8 =P!M, ps) nb 3!44H 0 0/ =P 0h c @!4O* ) c) O!F!v5!M ') ) ) (=S!Mf.! CB 4 7r.3 4 x 1!IS )!v53 (=P!M,!OM WM! =P g -L, @ ) =P Wr f.4m =P 3h =! =.??/? M= =' \ =H `S 4? = FE =AN) =P,! ), = =P!M,! 4M= =r a.) 3 ] T (- m.3 4 @!L, )!IS =L!L0 O =H' 2C!M=M4 3' B = ) =!M, (=P!Mu09 4.= u, =P!M, =I ) Q ht M! IS!) =P!M, \ 5 ) ) '!MM!M3 /@, 2. ] 3!) N 2.3 v5 Q T ( 7r 4* 5 S ht 3, Q T Q E =M = =@ 't.4 4M' Q9 H!IS 4!)!IS? 2 T D 4M' M 8 h8 [ c ), 44 @ *? (-e!m3! H `4A 2 4 (4M =P F4A! H 4, =M! M 2 D 5.4 =. / H) ) N 2 [9 M. M!IS ' K =C { 3. = ( ht!is!m, z) ' ) f =P 0h!).4 C ;!M3 7r { 2 5 S!IS v53 ' dir =P!MQ W.4=!!IS!A = W =P!MQ )4 f!v53s W 2 3.r!M!v5 2 ) [E c 4M= H IS =P Q _,? `L.4M= -@ f C ) f.4 3 F IS K 0h? 0P 4 =e _1 ) f 3 4 (c I'!!IS Q = = =P 0h C 0/. A.r!MX uvh =P) ) =PB!.) 3 = 4S ) I!/@ =P ) =PB!M3 ea M3 2.= * 5!IS!M3PA* /@ S ht 3, ].= x E 4P `!N [ ) Q] 3H U ) [B!N / U!.)!IS!M3PA* ` _1 4= =PB 4= O 3P).4M S ht 3, 48! U! ) M ) - ] #( ;* D* <$9 G.C & 1F0 0/ 104

1392 3.* 0 12,-. /0 /! ht 3, 3P)!M4 8 U = /!MOM U 4P `!N _1.4M S!M, z) ' )!IS 0h!4M`L Q!M*.H =P ) =PB 0h! 4= QM? =P ) =PB ;!M3 [/ ) 48= u9!is.)8 QM *!IS 0h!M ] 24.3=P 30q =P ) =PB!M3 ht = (P 2 b4m.3 4 > 1389 1350 [8 #..1 2 1 =?I' Wr =1/ 0/ 30 4 4. 44 @ 2 ( ) OP.3 => h 2 4 (!IS 4!A ) 30q h =.' dp' 4P 3H ) 4 =P =54L =P = 4 => h 2 { 2 M.4= Q ) 5 ) =P O ] M / 2 ) =P.3!IS 4 =P!A 30q h!4m 2r 2 `?9.3!IS 4!A ) => h =L!M, u9 =P!M 0h!!O / -8 U C ) =.> ] =L =PB!M3 ht!o f [F!H C ) n 4 ] =P.48= u9 =P!M, _N!!4.!M wu.48= 2 Q 4 3 Wr Q! =M3 4 4 4t L 2 ( = ) i 4 f 2R 4= =P!M3)4, 2 D ( 7r e!is 4 =P!A =./!1 ({ J 2 M.4 4 4. ) 4 [0S `S ;0!IS 4 =A.3 * C S 4t ;.1 2 nl/ 4 4t!IS 4.3 4=P!A 5 ) = =P!A }/ @ ) 4nB }/!IS 4 3* 0 M.3 S!IS 4 ) =P!A 2 * E =./ m0 f 3 ] 2M (3 = =P 0h ) =PB!M3 (=L!M ( L ) @ 2.4 > 2000-1992 =!).r 32!Mf /FE 44 H 3 ) 3 4 5 Mf 0/ WM @ )!M 44.4 m0 C4L =P 0h ) =PB!M3 105 1. Layza. N 2. Ranciere. R 3. Yang. Y.Y 4. Yi. M.H 5. Odhiamb 105

."%& $!"# 5. /01". 1" %& 2 3&,4( " ) $ *,", - & 1& 12:..12 ;1<1& $1 *1!"#. " 7,8. 9/,6& * - 0&." <4 F?@ & A:,BC1# DE& (>4 =!"#.2-1#J1": (2& F G.4. $,HI# $. $@ (",",BC# "& & 1 L. "& 0L FK -."(2001) E(. 6@ DT12 I() (" - F :S< D"(=,R D.!L/( FK F %A" D7& QP" -,&;:& P& H.12 1P4 X,21# 1Y$ 1& D1FK - * &.:& U&V WL/(. T2 I(1) ln FI = ln FI ln M q j= q j= q j= q j= q j= 10, j 11, j 13, j 15, j 17, j lntgc 1 4 7 ln GDP lntgk 2 5 ln FI ln MP lntrx lntgc ln INF p i= p i= t lntgk 8 ε p i= p i= 11, i 12, i 14, i 16, i :.K& F ;<& ln MP ln GDP ln M lntro 3 6 lntro lntgk ln INF 9 / :"F Q & a - (=,R 1. M.H. Pesaran, et. al (2001). Bunds Testing Appraches t the Analysis f Level Relatinship". Jurnal f Applied Ecnmetrics, 16, 289-326. 106

1392 3.* 0 12,-. /0 /! =M wu d' 2! 54. nl/!1 =P 0h =P =0h= d' : FI!.) =.' 0/ U (!O f!m=!o f =M4 U : ] =C4 U (- (4b I =S d' (4 4.!M V (Mf dp'!m= U ) =.' dp' 4P f!m= U (=.' dp' 4P.4 > =.' dp' 4P!O f! V 8!0,! =PB 3 d' : MP (=.' dp' 4P : GDP : TRO(3P) =P!M4 8 : TRX ((=C4) [B Q@9 : M (3 4 > =S : TGK (3P)!H zr (3P) = / zr!>s) [E O q ) p ) 3M wu : TGC(3P) 5 ) 3> \) * `?9!M4 8 =A0E QCP : ln([) 0 `N> (- : INF 2 1.= 2A 2O O ) fj8 =/FE!MA J 3!1 H) =0 `!N * ) 4 4.!1 0 =0 8 2 >?!N * :3 H : 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 6 = 7 = 8 = H : 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 =0 >?!N * ( C S LM ) B =e!)4, e =0,? 4 4. F! 8 >?!N * ( C S 8 =B!)4, 2B 5 ) 4 4 4.!1 0 =0!@ 3P9 2 ( C S )4, ) 2 =0, F! 8 D ) = = (4 4.!1 H) 4t?. z r = 4 4.!1 0 H) d'!0,!. 2r M wu 2 4 ) 4 4. ARDL\) f 2 ( 5= 4 =P =0h= cs) 4 > =M wu 5 /@ =P 0h! ( =P 0h nl/!1 4 > =P =0h=! =I' 3>5 = (!O f!m=!o f =M4 U : ] =M wu d' 2! 54 =S d' (4 4.!M V (Mf!.) =.' 0/ U 4P f!m= U (=.' dp' 4P =C4 U (- (4b I M8 ) 4 > =.' dp' 4P!O f dp'!m= U ) =.' dp' 3 nl/!1 =P 0h Q 3 =I' (Q ; PCA\) C4L =PB 3!.3 4 > spss15 O*- M ;! ) 4 = > QL M.3 4 > =S! V / 4= (M 52 2. Q =C QL 2 107 1. Akaike Infrmatin Criterin 2. Schwarz Baysian Criterin 3. Principal Cmpnent Analysis 107

) H) =C5) =P cs) (. =. =PB 3 =0 d' =PB 3 d' / = @ (3 4A O!M 2 M =L -] L./ = ht =S! V ) 2. > O =P!M3! a, 2.= > =PB!M3 d' /.Q > 3P) zr ) M4 8 ;( "Y.3 =! 4D ) 2 4 4. =PA!1 f C (=AHQM!IS -> (=. E.3M wu 2 4 4.!1 0 H) 8 ) =! =*M ()49 8.3 1 2.3 (2001) LM ) B )49 =AHQM 8 > (=AHQM!M\) =L L ]*? (3M wu x1 2 4 4.!1 0 H) = 3H 8 4 ( 8 2 -@!.4 ` chqm ), I(1) (, 2.= 2A 2O O =/FE!MA J ( I() ]!M 5. 5= )8 )4,!1' _,I!CP!>S) [E )49 8!1 H) =0 `!N * ) (4 4.!1 0 =0 8 2 >?!N * ( C S LM ) B =e!)4, e =0, F! 8 5.3 4 4. ( C S 8 =B!)4, 2B 5 ) 4 4 4.!1 0 =0 >?!N * 3P9 2 ( C S )4, ) 2 =0, F! 8 D ) = >?!N *!1 H) 4t?. z r = 4 4.!1 0 H) =0!@ ) 4 4.!1 (=A!M>S) 4M_N' \) f (M wu (=A!M>S) 4M_N' \) f 2r!.= 2A M wu ur 54H? wu OH f.= 2 4 4. 2 4 M! ( SBC ) 2O - O A ([4!!>S) q49 > ) )8 3 [4!M wu 4 4.!1 nv.= 2r!!1' _,I \) 4 ) 4 8 3 4 4. ([F' ) 4 4. = 5 = dr!!1' _,I OH f nv (= (UECM ) 4)4, 1' _,I [4 2r {. ' 4= 3 9 [A 3 (.3 4 8 (1) [)4H #( ;* D* <$9 G.C & 1F0 0/ 1. M.H. Pesaran, et. al, (2001)."Bunds Testing Appraches t the Analysis f Level Relatinship". Jurnal f Applied Ecnmetrics, 16, 289-326. 2. Schwarz Baysian Criterin 108

1392 3.* 0 12,-. /0 /! (UECM) 1 *";3 [5 c;y$ W" F @M$ L l=8 N,.1-"( t 3> e#d lv,c3 #GH,3 2/0552 1 / 6933 DLNFI ( 1) 1/4781 0 / 63773 DLNFI ( 2) 1/5468 1 / 9517 DLNGDP( 1) -4/8092-7/ 8508 DLNGDP ( 2) -2/7127-2/ 4279 DLNMP( 1) -0/30379-2/ 9651 DLNMP( 2) 3/2405 5 / 3225 DLNM ( 1) 1/7949 3 / 3477 DLNM ( 2) 2/4637 3 / 6646 DLNINF( 1) -1/8671-0/ 57117 DLNINF ( 2) 1/8362 1 / 6085 DLNTRX ( 1) 0/48367 2 / 8094 DLNTRX ( 2) 2/2053 3 / 2346 DLNTRO ( 1) 1/3149 2 / 4033 DLNTRO( 2) -2/2468-5/ 5024 DLNTGK ( 1) -3/1258-10/ 6890 DLNTGK ( 2) -0/061717-1/ 6677 DLNTGC ( 1) 0/40084 9 / 3773 DLNTGC ( 2) 3/4895 3 / 6559 LNFI ( 1) -2/3391-1/ 3853 LNGDP( 1) -1/9241-3/ 6483 LNMP ( 1) 1/8861 7 / 9104 LNM( 1) 0/84386 5 / 6291 LNINF( 1) -0/17294-2/ 818 LNTRX ( 1) 2/1954 2 / 4349 LNTRO ( 1) -0/31851-10/ 560 LNTGK ( 1) 0/73198 2 / 068 LNTGC( 1) 0/28934 1/ 0679 ˆ40 / 4/4840 F Statistic [ 2/22-3/39] %5 _1 [)4H F a,!m* :I5J3 109 109

`?9 F! 8 3 4 0, F! 8 (2001) 3 ) 2 ( B!P )49 8 -@! 3 ) 2 ( B!P F! 8 (1) [)4H A? 8 2 >?!N * Q= (3 4 8 ( Bundstest).= H : 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 6 = 7 = 8 = 4A 3 4 8 F! 8! =B ) e 4 3 ) 2 ( B!P [)4H!)4, * =0, F 5 3? 24 { ([)4H F =0, F!!)4, 2B 5 ) 4 4 4.!1 H) -4/ =0 >?!N * ( 5 S =e.4 H) [4!M wu 2 =4 4.!1 ) = * vb >?!N * ( C S =B =0, F! ) 3 [2/22-3/39] %5 _1 [)4H F! 8 @ S =e!)4, * =0, F Q= H [)4H F 3 4 4/5 @ 8 -@ 4A @ (= 4 4.!1 H) -4/ =0 >?!N * ) * 5. H) 4 4.!1 [4!M wu /@ 2 Q= @ 2 )49! ( H) M wu 2 4 4.!1 2 E ) 8 -@ 4A ( ARDL) 4 c!m>s) =5'!CP ([4!M wu 2 4 4.!1 2r.Q= >!M>S) 2O O! 8 f 4 ARDL \) >! ] 24!M wu! ( LNFI LNGDPLNMP LNM LNINF LNTRX LNTRO LNTGK LNTGC).3 ( 2, 21,, 2,,,,, )!M>S) 2 Q= ur 4 4.!1!@ 4 2r [4!M wu /@ 2 4 4.!1 nv FI = 0/ 4 C 0/ 81 LNGDP 2 / 38 ( 0/ 88) 1/ 2 ( 3/ 98) ( 2/ 2) ( 2/ 9) ( 3/ 8) LNMP 1/ 26 ( 1/ 86) ( 1/ 98) 1 :3 ( 2/ 7)? LNM 0/ 45 LNINF LNTRX 1/ 1 LNTRO 0/ 21 LNTGK 0/ 58 LNTGC (=C4 (-.3 =A ; N = 4= 4M WO* =A ( =P =0h=!) =0q t ( 2/ 53) 1!M 8 H ) =A h 3P)!H zr ) =>!M4 8.4= 4B WO* =P =0h= M wu 2-4 M #( ;* D* <$9 G.C & 1F0 0/.3 t! 8!4M O B ) 4/.1 110

1392 3.* 0 12,-. /0 /!!=A ) => h = / zr ) =P 4 8 (=PB 3 d' (=.' dp' 4P ) =P 4 8 (=PB 3 d' (=.' dp' 4P WO* =A (4v5= =P =0h=!).= =P =0h= WM @ = / zr!!1' _,I!CP = M U!/@ 2 =AHQM!1 H)? {.4M= m0 M8 4 4. =PA M wu 4 ( > ECM.3 t! 8!4M O B ) 4/.3 4 j (2) [)4H ECM )*#F )[5 c;y$ )-K) t 3> e#d lv,c3 #H,3 2/5205 0 / 46460 DLNFI( 1) -4/5923-0/ 2432 DLNGDP 5/0689 1 / 1055 DLNGDP ( 1) 0/24742 0/ 96776 DLNMP 2/3936 0/ 7658 DLNM 1/7367 1 / 0215 DLNM( 1) -2/0285-1/ 1396 DLNINF 2/0560 3/ 2935 DLNTRX 1/5037 2/ 8867 DLNTRO -1/7489-0/ 4578 DLNTGK 1/5852 0/ 5905 DLNTGC 2/5478 0/ 7538 ˆ40 / -7/4426-0/ 1500 ecm( 1) 11/77 F Statistic 8 `?9!,.2-"( 0/88 2 R a,!m* :I5J3 M L =A (3 0/15.3 =A ECM( 1) ; N ( * [)4H H ecm( 1) ; N 4= 4M [)4H 2 EM.= `4A 4 4. [A 4! =P =0h= 4 [A -4/ 0/15 [ 111 111

uh!8 (2e!L #L9 " #(A.4 8 =P!M, ps) nb 3!44H 0 0/ =P 0h c @!4O* ) c) O!F!v5!M ') ) ) (=S!Mf.! CB (=P!M,!OM WM! =P g 4 7r.3 4 x 1!IS )!v53 -L, @ ) =P Wr f.4m =P 0h =! =.??/!M, z) ' )!IS 0h!4M`L Q!M*.H =P ) =PB 0h! 4= QM? =P ) =PB ;!M3 [/ ) 48= u9!is.)8 QM *!IS 0h!IS!M, z) ' ) =P 30q =P ) =PB!M3 ht AP1 2 1 4 > )49 8 ) 4 )4, 1' _,I \) ] 24 ) 3 * 5 S = nv.3 S 4 4.!1 [4!M wu /@ 2 4 8 3 @ 2 ) 3!M wu 2 4 ) 4 4.!1 (4c!M>S) =5'!CP \) f.3 x a, 2 `?9 { Q)8 3 [4.v5= =P =0h=!) =0q ) =A h (=C4 =A ( =P =0h=!) =O* h (5 ) 3> \) * `?9!M4 8 =A ( =P =0h=!) =0q.4= WM =P 0h (=>!M4 8 WO* [0 ) =A h (- 4M= { { a0e C 0/.4= 4B WO* O =P =0h= ( - WO*. 5=!IS!M, z) ' ) =P 0h WO* @ - WM 4 8 3 =P 0h ( C 0/ =A WO* =P =0h= (3P)!H zr WO* (4M= WM =P =0h= (3P) = / zr WO* =* E.4= WM.4= f!is, z) ' ) 4M= WO* =P 0h C 0/ WO* =A (4v5= =P =0h=!)!=A ) => h =P!M4 8.= =P 0h WO* @ =P!M4 8. =P =0h=!=A ) =>!1 =PB 3 d' 3! Q= @ 2 a, 2 4 8 3 { H =. E 2 (3P) = / zr ] =MO 4!IS!M, z) ' ) =P 0h =3. > =P!M4 8 ) =PB 3 d' MP 8!H ) 3 3> 3P)!H!L 4 IS =P 0h >9!. > #( ;* D* <$9 G.C & 1F0 0/ 1. Bunds Test 112

0 12,-. /0 /! &?..5 WO* =A (!S ; N =PB!M3 ; N L H M* J WM =P!M, 4= 3 =S! V @ =PB!M3! V WO* =P, WM ] = B v53 2 (4M. IS ht 2 4 > =S 1392 3.* 113 113

3h!M3S )!H 3S =.!Mu9.(1384) = F!H!O f. )!IS \O5.(.r!M[).=.")*Y,Q )0" 0 #: 9&%. *Y,Q". )"* " > K3 &#;F L A &'( )*Y,Q Dd"". (1378).=L ) =PB,!g.1376 ) 1368 [ = F!H!O f (1380) )4 * (=.R> >AH4,."&# 3% )'( * )*Y,Q.."!*Y,Q * D(0" 8" 1". (1377) 4, ( @ (= * Arnne, M.,Laurens, B., Segaltt, J., Smmer, M., (2007)."Central Bank Autnmy: Lessns Fram Glbal Trends". IMF Wrking paper 07/88. Burda, M. and C. Wyplsz, (2001)."Macrecnmic". Oxfrd University Press. Driffill,J.,et al. (2005)."Mnetary Plicy and Financial Stability: What Rle fr the Futures Market?". Flkerts-Landau, D. et al., (1998)."Tward a Framewrk fr Financial Stability". Research Department, Internatinal Mnetary Fund. Herrer A., G., Pedr del Ri (2003)."Financial Stability and the Design f Mnetary Plicy". Wrking paper. BANCO DE ESPAÑA. Haugland K., et al (2006)."Financial Stability and Mnetary Plicy Thery and Practice". Ecnmic Bulletin 1/06 p24-31. Kurzer,k.,(1993)."Business and Banking Plitical, Plitical Change and Ecnmic Integratin in Western Eurpe". Crnell Univercity Press. Mishkin Frederic s. (2007)."Manetary Plicy Strategy". MIT Press. Nier,Erlend,Lea Zicchin (2008)."Bank Lsses, Mnetary Plicy, and Financial Stability Evidence n the Interplay frm Panel Data". IMF Wrking Paper WP/08/232 P1-30. Pesaran, M.,H.,Y., Shin, R.,J.,Smith (2001)."Bunds Testing Appraches t the Analysis f Level Relatinships". Jurnal f Applied Ecnpmetrics 16, p.289-326. RamÓn Martinez-Resan (2006)."Central Bank Financial Independence". Bannc De Espaňa. Schinasi, G., (2004)."DE Financial Stability". IMF Wrking paper 04/187. Sanchis,A., M.J.Segvia, J.A. Gil, A.Heras, J.L.Vilar (2007)."Rugh Sets and the Rle f the Mnetary Plicy in Financial Stability (Macrecnmic Prblem) and the Predictin f Inslvency in Insurance Sectr (Micrecnmic Prblem)". Eurpean Jurnal f Operatinal Research 181 p1554-1573. #( ;* D* <$9 G.C & 1F0 0/ 114

0 12,-. /0 /! Stck,J., M.,Watsn (2002)."Frecasting Using Principal Cmpnenents frm a Large Number f Predictrs". Jurnal f the American Statistical Asssiatin 97(460)P.1167-1179. WWW.CBI.IR WWW.SCI.Org.ir 1392 3.* 115 115

The Impact f Fiscal and Mnetary Plicies n Fiscal Cnslidatin in Iran Salman Setdehnia, Fariba Abedi Received: 2013/7/13 Accepted: 2013/11/26 Basis f stable cnditins in varius sectrs f the ecnmy, the mst imprtant factrs need t mve twards sustainable grwth and develpment in all aspects is cnsidered. One f the mst imprtant precnditins fr ecnmic stability and exit frm the ecnmic crisis, mnetary and financial stability and t achieve this imprtant shuld be apprpriate fr the prper implementatin f the plicy shuld be in mnetary and fiscal. T review the mnetary and fiscal plicies and their rle in ecnmic variables such as current and cnstructin gvernment expenditures, tax revenues, revenues frm il and natural gas as variables representing fiscal plicy and the statutry liquidity and depsit rates as a variable indicating mnetary plicy has been. In additin t the ecnmic stability f the financial instability f the variables used t measure mney. T estimate the errr crrectin mdel, the methd f test used is nt limited. The results btained shw that the increase in capital expenditure, tax and legal depsit rates leading t increased financial stability and ecnmic crisis is leaving and als current gvernment spending, inflatin, il exprt revenues and liquidity, lead t reduced financial stability and ecnmic crisis in the cuntry. JEL Classificatin: C22, C32. Key Wrds: Mnetary Plicy, Fiscal Plicy, Ecnmic Stability. 6