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1 ( ) ( ) : (1) (),, ;,,, (2),, :,, Levine & Zervos (1998),, ,, , , ;1992,21612, , ;1992,1048, GDP 319 %,2000,48091,GDP 5318 %, ,GDP 1218,,, ,,, 2000, , 3517 %, 16088, 3315 %,,,,,,,,,,,, 13

580111,8 2518 ;1992,1048, GDP 319 %,2000,48091,GDP 5318 %, 1992

2 :,, q, q,,,, q, ;,,, (Mishkin,1995),,,,, ( ) Y( ) D ( ),, (Blanchard,1981),: gy = ( D - Y) :> 0 (1) q,q,,, q,, C( ) G( ),: D = C + q + G :> 0,> 0,> 0 (2) : gy = (C + q + G - Y) (3),: gc = gy + ( gq - q) :> 0,> 0 = (C + q + G - Y) + ( gq - q) (4) gq gp gy gr gm q P ( Gavin,1989) P( ) : gp = ( gp - P) > 0 (5) q,r,, rq - gq (Romer,1996), : = rq - gq (6) r i e ( e = gp) : r = i - e (7) IS2LM, i YM2P( ), :, Y, : i = by - h ( M - P) b > 0 h > 0 (8), (5) - (9),q : = + Y > 0 (9) gq = [ by - h ( M - P) + ( P - gp) ] q - (+ Y) (10) Q, 1ΠQ + gqπq,q R, R - grπr,, : R - grπr = r (11) (5) (7) (8),(11),: 14

P) > 0 (5) q,r,, rq - gq (Romer,1996), : = rq - gq (6) r i e ( e = gp) : r = i - e (7) IS2LM, i YM2P( ), :, Y, : i = by - h ( M - P) b > 0 h > 0 (8),

3 gr = R 2 - R[ by - h ( M - P) + ( P - gp) ] (12) (3) (4) (5) (10) (12), q : gy gc gp gq gr = bgq - 0 ( h + ) gq gr 0 - bgr 0 - ( h + ) gr 0 2 gr - R r Y - gy C - gc P - gp q - gq R - gr,,,,,,,, :,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,, : : P q, (13) gp = ( gp - P) (5) gq = [ by - h ( M - P) + ( P - gp) ] q - (+ Y) (10), P = gp, 1 - a, : q,q = (+Y)Π[ by - h ( M - P) +( P - gp) ],,,,,, q,,, mn, 1 - b, E1 E2,, q,,, :,,, q,,, 15

4 : 1 - a q P 1 - b q P ( ),1 - a P ( 2 - a ),,,, E2E3, R&D,,,,,1 - a P ( 2 - b ),,,, gr > (1 + h ) gq, E2E3, 2 - a q P ( ) 2 - b q P ( ) 16

5 a,,,,,, q, E1 E2,,,,, q E2 E3,E3, 2 - b,,,q (E1 E2),,, q E2 E3 E3,, ( ),,,,,1,, ( ),, :,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,: gy = (C + q + G - Y) (3) gr = R 2 - R[ by - h ( M - P) + ( P - gp) ] (12),Y =C + q +G,,R2Y,R = by - h ( M - P) +( P - gp),,,,r2y, 2 gr > gr,, mn, 3,2 gr < gr,,,,,,, ;,,, E1 E2,:,,,,,,,,,,,E2 E3,, () 17

6 :, () 3 - a Y R 3 - b Y,,, gc = (C + q + G - Y) + ( gq - q) (4) gq = [ by - h ( M - P) + ( P - gp) ] q - (+ Y) (10) C q,:,c = 1 [ ( - ) q + Y - G - gq ] -,,, gq = 0 : - > 0,gC = 0,,q,q = (+Y) / [ by - h ( M - P) +( P - gp) ],C2q,, E,,, ( E),4 - a 4 - b,,, ;,,( q ), E1 E2,,, E2 E3,,,,, 18, -,

7 a gc = 0 (4),, <,,,>,,,, 4 - a 4 - b (2), 1,<,, gc = 0,,, Ando &Modigliani (1963), 017, 0106, (1994), (2000), ,, (2001) , 01044,1999,, - < 0,,,,,,,,, - > 0,,,,,,,,,,,, 19

0106, (1994), 01039 (2000), 010506,, (2001) 1999

8 :, (,2001),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2001 :, 4 :2000 :, 5,2000 :,,2001 :, 3,2001 :, 7,1994 :,, David Romer,1996,Advanced Macroeconomics,The McGraw2Hill Companies,Inc. Frederic S. Mishkin,1996,The Channels of Monetary Transmission :Lessons for Monetary Policy,NBER Working Paper Michael Gavin,1989,The Stock Market and Exchange Rate Dynamics,Journal of International Money and Finance,8, Olivier J. Blanchard,1981,Output,the Stock Market,and Interest Rates,the American Economic Review,March, Ross Levine and Sara Zervos,1998 :Stock Markets,Bank,and Economic Growth,the American Economic Review,June, ( : ) ( : ) 20

Michael Gavin,1989,The Stock Market and Exchange Rate Dynamics,Journal of International Money and Finance,8,181 200. Olivier J.

9 Abstracts of Papers in English Taylor Rule and Its Empirical Test in China s Monetary Policy Xie Ping &Luo Xiong (Research Bureau,The People s Bank of China ;Department of Postgraduates,The People s Bank of China) This paper employs the historical analysis and the reaction function method to conduct an empirical analysis of China s monetary policy in the framework of Taylor rule. By comparing the rule value with the actual value of the interest rate,we show that Taylor rule can provide a benchmark for measuring the stance of China s monetary policy. The actual value deviates from rule value when the policy operation lags behind the request of the development of economic situation. In such an unstable monetary policy regime, the generation and devleopment of inflation or deflation is of a self2fulfilling mechanism. China s monetary policy should be trans2 formed from an unstable rule to a stable one. We should actively carry interest rate reform forward and set up the monetary policy regime with the interest rate of money market as the intermediate target. Key Words : Taylor Rule ; China s Monetary Policy ; Empirical Analysis. JEL Classification :C520, E500, E520, P340 Monetary Policy and Financial Assets Price Yi Gang & Wang Zhao (The People s Bank of China ;Peking University) (1) Monetary policy has influence upon financial assets price,especially upon stock price. When the expansion of investment causes raw material and labor price increasing,the long2term outcome of expansionary monetary policy is that both commodity price and stock price increase. When the investment is characterized by scale effects and makes labor productivity increase notably,the long2 term outcome of expansionary monetary policy is that the stock price increases while the commodity price decreases. Thus whether inflation happens is determined not only by the commodity and service price,but also by the stock price. (2) No matter how much the wealth effect of the stock market is,stimulating stock market by expansionary monetary policy in order to magnify aggregate de2 mand is dangerous in the long run. we also find when the stock price deviates from its equilibrium farther and farther,the economic boom is vulnerable. Key Words : Transmission Mechanism ; Monetary Policy ; Stock Market ; Price ; Inflation. JEL Classification : E310, E420, E440, O230 92

By comparing the rule value with the actual value of the interest rate,we show that Taylor rule can provide a benchmark for measuring the stance of China s monetary policy.

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