Civil Dialog Group. Market Situation for Sheep & Goats. 30 June 2015

Transcript

1 Civil Dialog Group Market Situation for Sheep & Goats 3 June 215

2 Development of the EU average market price for Heavy and Light Lamb carcass uro / 1kg Light L 28 Average EU Heavy Lamb Average

3 Heavy Lamb prices in the EU uro/1kg

4 Light Lamb prices in the EU uro/1kg

5 Sheep slaughter in the EU monthly and quarterly (215 Forecast) number in 1 heads Price in / 1kg EU monthly slaughter Quarterly slaughter: 1st Q: green, 2nd Q: yellow, 3rd Q: blue, 4th Q: red HL price LL price

6 5 Lamb production in the UK and Spain compaired to "Other" in 1 Tonns (incl. (incl. Slaughter other than in slaughterhouses) Other UK ES DG AGRI C3 Civil Dialog Group June

7 25,% Repartition of estimated slaughter, other than in slaughterhouses as a % of the total slaughter 212 & 213 2,% 15,% 1,% 5,%,% T Head T Head T Head T Head T Head T Head T Head T Head T Head Adult Cattle Cows Bullocks & Bulls Heifers Calves Young Cattle Pigs Sheep Goat 212 1,3% 2,%,8% 1,1% 3,5% 4,6% 2,3% 14,5% 27,3% 213 1,1% 1,9%,8%,8% 3,8% 4,6% 1,9% 13,2% 25,% 212 2,6% 4,1% 1,5% 2,% 5,7% 9,1% 2,2% 18,8% 27,6% 213 2,5% 4,% 1,5% 1,7% 6,% 9,% 1,8% 17,7% 26,3%

8 Sheep and Goat meat supply in the EU 24 = EU = EU = EU 28 in 1 Tonnes , 3, 25, 2, 15, Sheep Carcase weight in KG 25 1, , Sheep Non official Goat Imp - Exp (Pw) Heavy light

9 Monthly sheep slaughter in the EU 28 Slaughter in Ton 75, 5, 25,, Jan Feb Mch Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10 Sheep and Goat meat production 214-2,6% cmpaired to In 1 heads (official slaughter only) goat 214 sheep 214 uk es gr fr ie it de pt nl other

11 Exchange rate UK - NZ$ & AUS$ - Euro quotation: 1 st day of the month 2,5 2,25 2 1,75 1,5 1,25 1,75,5 I 27 I 28 I 29 I 21 I 211 I 212 I 213 I 214 I 215 I oreuro/index.cfm NZ$ AUS$ UK

12 Community average and international market prices for Heavy Lamb carcases uro / 1kg EU Heavy Lamb Average Uruguay AUS

13 WORLD MARKET PRICES of Lamb in week /1 kg 3 567,89 68,92 63,9 2 39,67 468, ,2 Heavy Lamb Y-Lamb Trade lamb Carcasa Cordero 55-65lb 65-75lb EU New Zealand Australia Uruguay USA USA Price in /1 kg 567,89 26,2 39,67 468,54 68,92 63,9 Compared to EU - 54% - 31% - 17% + 2% + 11%

14 9. SHEEP & GOAT PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM NEW ZEALAND Fresh or chilled sheep legs, Frozen sheep legs & Frozen lamb carcasses and half-carcasses (EU28 - Total Trade) Ton / tonne Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr Fresh or chilled sheep legs Frozen sheep legs 243-Frozen lamb carcasses and half-carcasses Fresh or chilled sheep legs 243-Frozen lamb carcasses and half-carcasses Frozen sheep legs

15 Import price of certain New Zealand Lamb products into the EU compared to the NZ and EU heavy carcase price the graph concerns 84% of the total fresh and frozen lamb imports from NZ (by weight) and 78% of the total Sheep & Goat imports from NZ Boneless (Fresh) Unit value in / 1kg Max import Price of main NZ lamb products (fresh & frozen) Min import Price of main NZ lamb products (fresh & frozen) AVG EU Heavy lamb carcase price 2 AVG NZ carcase price

16 EU import of sheep & goat meat and live animals Trade figures (Comext) Jan-Apr 15 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Apr 14 New Zealand ,2% ,7% ,4% ,5% ,2% + 5,6% Australia ,% ,8% ,3% ,7% ,7% - 14,7% For.JRep.Mac ,3% ,3% ,3% ,2% ,6% - 27,6% Uruguay ,1% ,7% ,5% ,7% 936 1,1% - 32,5% Chile ,3% ,6% ,9% ,8% 486,6% - 41,% Falkland Is. 68,3% 616,3% 74,3% 766,4% 273,3% - 26,9% Argentina 268,3% - 58,% Iceland 2.73,9% 1.12,5% 1.441,7% 1.798,9% 191,2% - 28,1% Other Origins ,8% ,7% ,3% ,7% 215,3% - 41,6% EXTRA EU % change - 14% + 5% - 5% + 1,%

17 EU imports of sheep & goatmeat and live animals Trade figures (COMEXT) EU IMPORTS of Sheet & Goat (Tonnes cwe %) EU IMPORTS of Sheet & Goat (1 EUR %) In Tonnes cw e in 1 EUR Jan-Apr 13 Jan-Apr 14 Jan-Apr 15 Jan-Apr 13 Jan-Apr 14 Jan-Apr 15 New Zealand Australia For.JRep.Mac Uruguay Chile Other origins New Zealand Australia For.JRep.Mac Uruguay Chile Other origins

18 EU-28 Imports of Sheep and Goat products in Tonnes cwe Jan 6 26 Jan 7 27 Jan 8 28 Jan 9 29 Jan1 21 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan1 5 FRESH FROZEN OTHERS

19 EU exports of sheep & goat meat and live animals: Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Jan-Apr 15 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Apr 14 Libya ,5% ,% ,3% ,7% ,8% - 25,6% Hong Kong ,2% ,2% ,1% ,7% ,3% - 64,2% Lebanon ,% ,% ,7% ,8% ,% + 139,% Sw itzerland ,1% ,5% ,1% ,8% 1. 6,2% - 7,8% Ghana ,9% ,8% ,8% ,5% 612 3,8% + 1,1% Algeria,% 275,3% ,2% ,8% 488 3,% -,8% Jordan ,7% ,1% ,4% ,6% 396 2,5% - 75,% Norw ay 652 1,% ,3% ,2% ,5% 386 2,4% - 13,2% Guinea 15,% 12,% 371,3% 773,7% 332 2,1% + 82,6% Ivory Coast 357,6% 549,7% ,% ,2% 224 1,4% - 35,2% U.A.Emirates 14,% 334,4% 284,3% ,2% 162 1,% - 18,7% China 63,1% 96,1% 479,4% 378,3% 148,9% + 114,8% Centr.Africa,%,%,% 125,1% 119,7% +++ Russia 43,1% 153,2% 12,% 1,% 2,% - 45,6% Other Destinations ,7% ,4% ,% ,2% ,8% - 36,8% EXTRA EU % change + 3% + 31% + 3% - 35,3%

20 EU exports of sheep & goatmeat and live animals Trade figures (COMEXT ) EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (Tonnes cwe) 3. EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (1 EUR) Tonnes cw , EUR Jan-Apr 13 Jan-Apr 14 Jan-Apr 15 Jan-Apr 13 Jan-Apr 14 Jan-Apr 15 Libya Hong Kong Lebanon Switzerland Turkey Other destinations Libya Hong Kong Lebanon Switzerland Turkey Other destinations

21 EU-28 Exports of Sheep and Goat products in Tonnes cwe Jan6 26 Jan7 27 Jan8 28 Jan9 29 Jan1 21 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan15 LA FRESH FROZEN OTHERS

22 Export of live sheep, in heads excluding pure-bred breeding = heads 211 = heads 212 = heads 213 = heads 214 = heads A = LIVE LAMBS "SHEEP UP TO A YEAR OLD" B = LIVE SHEEP excl. A

23 Live export by destination in percent and Head Repartition of Live lamb and sheep export by destination in nr of heads Repartition of Live lamb and sheep export by destination in nr of heads 214 = live animals 1% 9% Other % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Croatia Bosnia and Herz. Turkey Lebanon Other Croatia Bosnia and Herz. Turkey Lebanon Jordan 2% Jordan 4. Libya 1% % Libya

24 EU Sheep and Goat Meat Trade Balance, tonnes cwe 35. IMPORTS EXPORTS Jan- Apr 15

25 COUNTRY GROUP No CN CODES UTILISATION OF SHEEPMEAT AND GOATMEAT TARIFF QUOTAS IN 215 EU-28 : January > December 215 Reg. 1354/211 ORIGIN ORDER NUMBER Annual quota Period: 1/1/215-1/6/215 Unit: tonnes cwe Balance (remaining amount) Actual import Quota use % 1/1/214-19/6/214 Argentina % 9 Australia % 1.94 New Zealand % Uruguay % 1.75 Chile % Norway % Greenland % Faeroes % Turkey % Others % 12 Erga Omnes % Iceland % Erga Omnes % TOTAL %

26 EU India (up to Mar yy) Uruguay (up to Mar yy) * EU India (up to Mar yy) Uruguay (up to Mar yy) * New Zealand Australia New Zealand Australia Qty in 1 Tonnes Main Exporters of SHEEP&GOAT Products (up to April) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.live animals) (up to April) 215 (up to April)

27 EU United States Malaysia (up to Mar) Japan China + H. Kong EU United States Malaysia (up to Mar) Japan China + H. Kong Qty in 1 Tonnes Main Importers of SHEEP&GOAT Products (up to April) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.live animals) 214 (up to April) 215 (up to April)

28 New Zealand lamb and wool prices (NZ Farmers weekly) 13, 11, 9, NZ$/ 1kg 7, 5, 3, Wool 25 μ Wool 39 μ Avg NZ Y-lamb NZ$/1kg Source: NZ Farmers weekly

29 Experts estimates of May 215 FORECAST QUESTIONNAIRE - SHEEP AND GOAT MEAT BALANCE Change (f) 14/13 % 15/14 % GIP/ PIB/ BEE AT ' head 7,914 BE ' head,777,65,488,588,489,536-16,8% 9,6% BG ' head 1,597 1,47 1,45 1,383,133,98-9,4% 635,5% CZ ' head 2,189 2,418 2,46 2,548 2,648 2,648 3,9%,% DE ' head 4,4 42, 38,6 34,4 31,2 31,5-9,3% 1,% IE ' head 41,3 39, 45,2 49,9 53,5 54,5 7,2% 1,9% EL ' head 98, 15, 1, 98, 8, 72, -18,4% -1,% ES ' head 149, , , ,68 136,5 136,5-7,5%,% FR ' head 111, ,65 112,131 17,243 17,181 16,382 -,1% -,7% HU ' head 9,69 9,551 9,581 9,258 9,637 9,545 4,1% -1,% IT ' head 32,18 3,789 3,78 2,267 1,389 17,734-48,7% 7,7% CY ' head NL ' head 16,8 16,8 16,7 16,4 16,7 16,3 1,8% -2,4% PL ' head 3,29 3,129 3,13 3,46 2,95 2,857-3,2% -3,2% PT ' head 2,116 19,864 18,56 16,993 17,385 17,385 2,3%,% SI ' head SF ' head,79,95,94,95 1,2 1,1 7,4% 7,8% UK ' head 292,3 298,9 285, 298,9 312,3 329,8 4,5% 5,6% Total 82, ,75 8,671 87, ,32 87,68 EU 1,9% -4,2%,9% -3,2% 3,3% -3,2% 3,3% Off-Slaughter 776, ,97 759,892 76,291 75, ,173 Official slaughter OSH-Slaughter 138,87 143,98 134,57 126,67 Slaughter other than in official slaughterhouses

30 Experts estimates of May 215 FORECAST QUESTIONNAIRE - SHEEP AND GOAT MEAT BALANCE Change (f) 14/13 % 15/14 % 1 Price - heavy lambs >= 13.1 kg AT 'EUR/1 kg cwe 529, 526, 53, -,6%,8% BE 'EUR/1 kg cwe CZ 'EUR/1 kg cwe 35, 35, 36, 37, 38, 38, 2,7%,% DE 'EUR/1 kg cwe 425,3 478,4 517,1 512, 52, 54, 1,6% 3,8% IE 'EUR/1 kg cwe 439, 478, 462, 457, 48, 48, 5,%,% EL 'EUR/1 kg cwe 37, 388, 366, 352, 359, 359, 2,%,% ES 'EUR/1 kg cwe 489,63 559,63 561,28 53,87 558,73 558,73 1,9%,% FR 'EUR/1 kg cwe 587,7 61,8 624,2 621,7 635, 652, 2,1% 2,7% CY HU 'EUR/1 kg cwe 49, 57, 554, 52, 57, 525, -2,5% 3,6% NL 'EUR/1 kg cwe 463, 59, 541, 54, 525, 515, 4,2% -1,9% PL 'EUR/1 kg cwe 334, 38, 387, 372, ,5% -1,3% SI 'EUR/1 kg cwe SF 'EUR/1 kg cwe 282,45 287,11 35,14 39,4 4, 41, UK 'EUR/1 kg cwe 452,4 51,7 499,7 488,9 518,8 515, 6,1% -,7% EU Experts calc of EU HL 435,75 476,7 479,45 469,27 492,28 494,62 4,9%,5% Realised EU HL on basis of we 436,3 497,84 497,96 488,88 512,92 515,36 2 Price - light lambs =< 13. kg BG 'EUR/1 kg cwe 544, 55, 6, 57, 6, 57, 5,3% -5,% CZ 'EUR/1 kg cwe 48, 48, 48, 48, 49, 49, 2,1%,% EL 'EUR/1 kg cwe 532, 554, 523, 53, 513, 513, 2,%,% ES 'EUR/1 kg cwe 644,67 69,73 69, 625, 676,6 676,6 8,2%,% HU 'EUR/1 kg cwe 555, 64, 631, 585, 59, 61,,9% 3,4% IT 'EUR/1 kg cwe 517,89 526,27 65,7 634,97 624,46 629,46-1,7%,8% PL 'EUR/1 kg cwe 42, 451, 462, 477, 457, 45, -4,2% -1,5% PT 'EUR/1 kg cwe 424, 442, 438, 436, 47, 47, 7,8%,% SI 'EUR/1 kg cwe EU Experts calc of EU LL 567,82 597,8 597,52 566,67 592,98 592,57 4,6% -,1% Realised EU LL on basis of wee 584,3 59,52 599,88 588,72 589,49 589,8

31 Price forecast for Heavy and Light Lamb based on the communicated data 6 / 1kg (f) EU Experts calc of EU HL EU Experts calc of EU LL Realised EU HL on basis of weekly prices Realised EU LL on basis of weekly prices

32 Where to find data: Click on link: Sheepmeat and Goatmeat Click on link: Presentations and prices (righthand side under: in this chapter) Choose the item (link) you want