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Q = S OMMU NN!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol.4, No.6 November, 2 0 0 8!"167-1719 (2008) 06-069-07 fm``!"#$%&'()* δ NP`!"#$% NIO N N == N!" P Q N=!"#$%$&'%%()=ONMMQQO=!"#$%&'=ONMMMVP=!"!#!"#$%!=QSQ-USMN Q=!

1 Q = S OMMU NN!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol.4, No.6 November, !" (2008) fm``!"#$%&'()* δ NP`!"#$% NIO N N == N!" P Q N=!"#$%$&'%%()=ONMMQQO=!"#$%&'=ONMMMVP=!"!#!"#$%!=QSQ-USMN Q=!"!#$%&!'( =VMP-MONP =!IPCC!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$!%&'()*+,-./0124!"# $%&'()*+,-./01245 δ 1 C!"#$%&'()*+,-. IPCC !"#$%& '()* !" #$%&!IPCCCO 2 δ 1 C!"!"#P467/P7===!"#A = ====!"#$%&'()**+,-#$./ CO 2!"#$ CO 2!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"# CO 2!"#$%&'(!"#$% !"#!"#$CO Gt Chttp://cdiac. esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htm CO 2!"#.5 Gt C=Ehttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ trends/co2f 40%!"!"#!"#!"#$%&'() *+,!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!" #$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'IPCC!"#$%!"#$%&'!" 4!" x1j4z!"#$%&'!ipcc!"#!"#$%&' (%)*+ (,%-*.!"#$%&'()!" δ 1 C!"#$% IPCC!"#$%&!!"# IPCC 4!"!IPCC 19IPCC 1996IPCC 2001IPCC 2007 N==!" NKN==!"#$%&' ====!"#$%&'()* 1970!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'( CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,-. JJ!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-%./012!"#!"#$%&'( 1!2008J0J14=!"2008J04J28!" #$%&'CCSF !"#$%&'()*QD462006!"#$%&'()*06KJD170115! 1962J!"#!"#$%&"#'()*+,-./ K= jiangaijun12@sina.com!"! czxchen@nuist.edu.cn Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75 69

2 = = = 70 =OMMU 1= !"#$%&'()* Table 1 Global annual mean carbon budgets in 1970J19!"#!"# /Gt C /Gt C! /Gt C /Gt C! Woodwell 1978 [5] J1.2.4! Keeling 1989 [6] J0.9.1! Tans 19 [7] CO 2 Quay 1992 [8] δ 1 C! Broecker 199 [9] !"! Tans 199 [10] C!" Heimann 1996 [11] J.1 δ 1 C!" Gruber1998 [12] 2.0 C *!2000 [1] ! Sabine 2004 [14] J9 118 C * [14]!"#$ !"#$%&'!"!"#$!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$!%& J! CO 2!"#$%&'DIC!"#$% Keeling x15z!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()* NKO==fm``!"#$% ====IPCC!"#$%&'()!"#!"#$%!"#$%&'( !"#$%&'()*+,- x1j4z!"#$%&'( )*+,-./012 1!"#!"!"#!"IPCC 19!!"#$% IPCC 1996!"#$%&!'()* x16z!"#$%&'doc!" DOC!"#POC!"#!IPCC!"!"#$%&!!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$%&'(!!"#$%!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!IPCC 1996IPCC 2001!"#$%!"#$0.6 Gt C/aF!"#$%& Gt C/a!" Gt C/a! IPCC 2007!"#$%&'()*+#$!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&! (ff) (a) F Iba F aib F am F ma! (lb) (r)!" (sd)! (b) F bm! (m) F mb F md F dm!" (d) (se) 1 IPCC!"#$%&'( Fig. 1 The scheme of global carbon cycle described by IPCC ====IPCC!"#$%&'()*+,-.#!"#$ 2!"#$ CO 2 CO 2!"#$%&'!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 70 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75

3 S!" IPCC!"#$%&'()* δ 1 C!"#$% 71 2=IPCC!"#$ %&'#$( )& Table 2 Global carbon reservoir sizes and fluxes between them assessed by IPCC!! 1) IPCC 19 IPCC 1996 IPCC 2001 IPCC N a (+) 750 (+.4) ) /Gt C!!!" N lb N m N d (+1) 8000 (+2) (+0.4) 8 (+1.6) ) ! N b!" /Gt C!! /! F ff J F alb F lba / (Gt C/a) J F am F ma J!" F md F dm F mb J! 10 4) F bm !" /(Gt C/a) F EP ! /(Gt C/a) F se! /(Gt C/a) F r 1)!"#$ [16] IPCC 1996!"#$%&2)!"#$%&'()!" DIC 4)!"# CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"IPCC Gt CIPCC Gt C!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%& '()*IPCC!"#! J!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'( x4z!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+ ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'()*+ Gt C IPCC 19!"#$%&!"#'( 1011 Gt C/a!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./0&1!"#$#%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-!" x4z IPCC!"#$%&'() 2!"#$%&'()*+, J!"#$%&'()*+ 2!"#$4!"# 5/7 91.6//4291.8/101 Gt C/aIPCC 19IPCC 2001!"#!$%&'()*!+,! m /s!"#!"#$ x16z IPCC 2007!"#$ J!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+ Siegenthaler x16z F dm!"#! Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75 71

4 = = = 72 =OMMU! 10!"#$ DIC 10%! IPCC 2007F dm 110 Gt C/a IPCC!"#$%&'()*+,-.'/012!"#$%& '() CO 2!"#!"#$%&'()!" DIC δ 1 1 C IPCC CO 2!"# O==! δ NP`! ==== 1 C!"#$%&'!"#$CO 2!"#!"#$ CO 2!"#$ CO 2!"#$%&'(!"CO 2 δ 1 C!"#$%& J !"# 0.40J7.6J7.76!DICδ 1 C!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'() CO 2!"Quay x 8z 19!"#$%&'$(! δ 1 C1970 GEOSECSGeochemical Ocean Section Study!"#$ %&'()δ 1 C!197019!"#$%&2.1 Gt C/a Tans x10z!"#$%δ 1 C!"#$%!"#$ Gt C/aHeimann x11z!!"#co 2 1 CO 2!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$ δ 1 C!"#!"#$%&.1 Gt C/a Quay x17z!woceworld Ocean Circulation Experimentδ 1 C!"#!"#$!"#$%& 1.5 Gt C/a! DIC δ 1 C!"#$%&' IPCC!"#$ CO 2!"#$%&δ 1 C!!" ==== IPCC 1!" DIC!W N m = (F am J F ma ) + (F dm JF md ) + (F bm J F mb ) + F r (1) DI 1 C!" N m δ m = [F am (δ m + ε am ) J F ma (δ m + ε ma ) ] + (F dm δ d J F md δ m ) + [F bm δ b J F mb (ε mb + δ m )] + F r δ r (2) ε CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,- F!"δ!"#$%&'!"#! 1 J!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&'() *+, x10z!"#$%&!'()*+,!"#$%&' x8, 10, 17z δ b =ε mb + δ m ==== IPCC 2007!"#$%&' (2)!"#$%&'( DICδ!!"#$%&'J!"#$%&' N m N m δ m 0 (2)!"#$%!"!" CO 2 δ 1 C! x6z!"#$%&' IPCC!"#"$%&' δ d!"#$%!"0! GEOSECS1970 WOCE19!" δ 1 C!" x8, 17z!"#$%&'()*!δ d J11!"# Gt C/a!" #$%&'() xj4,10j11z IPCC 1996IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007!"#!"#$%0.6 Gt C!"#$ Gt C!"# x10j11z!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 1.2!"#$%!"# IPCC!!"#$ J!"#$%&'!!"#!"#$%!"# F dm F md!"#$%&'()*+,-. δ 1 C Eδ m F!"#$%&δ m!"#$f dm!" F dm F md!" IPCC ! F dm F md (1)!"#DIC!"!"(2)!"δ d F dm!"#$%!δ 1 C4 ====!"#!"#$%&' δ 1 C!"#$Jain x18z!"#δ 1 C1.9!"#$%&'()*+,+-./δ 1 C !" x19j21z!"#$%&'()*+,δ 1 C ! x17z!"#$!"#$%&δ 1 C! C!"#$%&' 4IPCC Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75

5 S!" IPCC!"#$%&'()* δ 1 C!"#$% 7 =!"#$%&' Table Parameter values adopted in the computational formulae!!! δ a CO 2 δ 1 C J6. Keeling = [6] ε ma J!"#$%& J10.9 Tans [7], Quay [8], Heimann [11] ε am J!"#$%& J2.0 Tans [7], Quay [8], Heimann [11] ε mb!"#$%&'()* J22.0 Tans [7], Heimann [11] δ m!" δ 1 C!"# δ d!"# δ 1 C J1~1!"#$ δ r! δ 1 C J20 Quay [17]! F dm!"#$% δ 1 C 0.5 δ m!"#$% δ d!"#$%&'!" 1 C!"#$%!F r 12!"#$%& C!"#$%& F dm!"#$j!"#$%&'δ 1 C!" 4!" δ 1 C!"F dm 6080 Gt C/a δ d 0!" δ m!"#2.6.1f!"ipcc!"#$%&#'() IPCC 1996 IPCC 2007 Gt C/a!!"#$% IPCC 19 IPCC Gt C/a!"J!"#$%!"#$%&!'()* CO 2!"!"#$IPCCJCO 2!"#$ δ 1 C!"#$%&'(!"#$ P==!" ====! IPCC!"#$%&'()*+ IPCC!"#$J!DIC!"#$% δ 1 C!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"IPCC=2007 J!"#$%&'()*+!!"#$%&IPCC!"#!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$% x4, 17z!"#$%&CO 2 4=! δ d F dm!"# δ m!"! Table 4 Computational results of δ m under a steady state using different δ d and F dm (unit: ) F dm / (Gt C/a) δ d / * J J J G!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$ δ m!"#δ 1 C!"#$%&'$()*! "#$%&1970 GEOSECS!" 19 WOCE! 25000!"#$% δ 1 C!"#!"#$%CO 2!"#$%&'()* ==== δ 1 C!"#$%&'(1) δ 1 C!"!DOC!" x4z 2) J!"#$%&'()*+,! J CO 2!"#$ CO 2!!"CO 2!"#$%!"#$%&'() Quay x17z!"# δ 1 C!"#$!"#$!"#$% CO 2!" Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75 7

6 = = = 74 =OMMU! [1] Houghton J T, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, et al. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment Report. Prepared for IPCC by Working Group I [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 19 [11] window on ocean CO 2 uptake [J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 199, 7 (2): 5J68 Heimann M, Maier-Reimer E. On the relations between the oceanic uptake of CO 2 and its carbon isotopes [J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1996, [2] [] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] Houghton J T, Meira-Flho L G, Callander B A, et al. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996 Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001 Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007 Woodwell G M, Wittaker R, Reiners W A, et al. The biota and the world carbon budget [J]. Science, 1978, 199: 141J146 Keeling C D, Bacastow R B, Carter A F, et al. A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO 2 transport based on observed wind I. analysis of observational data [M]// Peterson D. Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and Western Americas: Geophysical Monograph Ser.55. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union, 1989: 165J26 Tans P P, Fung I Y, Takahashi T. Observational constraints on the global atmospheric CO 2 budget [J]. Science, 19, 247: 141J148 Quay P D, Tilbrook B, Wong C S. Oceanic uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 : carbon-1 evidence [J]. Science, 1992, 256: 74J79 Broecker W S, Peng T H. Evaluation of the 1 C constraint on the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 by the ocean [J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 199, 7 (): 619J626 Tans P P, Berry J A, Keeling R F. Oceanic 1 C/ 12 C observations: a new 10 (1): 89J110 [12] Gruber N. Anthropogenic CO 2 in the Atlantic Ocean [J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1998, 12 (1): 165J191 [1],.!" CO 2!"#$%& [J].!, 2000, 58 (1): 40J48 [14] Sabine C L, Feely R A, Gruber N, et al. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO 2 [J]. Science, 2004, 05: 67J71 [15] Keeling R F. Comment on The ocean sink for anthropogenic CO 2 [J]. Science, 2005, 08: 174 [16] Siegenthaler U, Sarmiento J L. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the ocean [J]. Nature, 199, 65: 119J125 [17] Quay P, Sonnerup R, Westby T, et al. Changes in the 1 C/ 12 C of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean as a tracer of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake [J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 200, 17 (1), 4, doi: / 2001GB [18] Jain A K, Kheshgi H S, Wuebbles D J. A globally aggregated reconstruction of cycles of carbon and its isotopes [J]. Tellus, 1996, 48B (4): 58J600 [19] Nozaki Y, Rye D M, Turekian K K, et al. A 200-year record of carbon-1 and carbon-14 variations in a Bermuda coral [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1978, 5 (10): 825J828 [20] Druffel E R M, Benavides L M. Input of excess CO 2 to the surface ocean based on 1 C/ 12 C ratios in a banded Jamaican sclerosponge [J]. Nature, 1986, 21: 58J61 [21] Bohm F, Joachimski M M, Lehnert H, et al. Carbon isotope records from extant Caribbean and South Pacific sponges: evolution of δ 1 C in surface water DIC [J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1996, 19: 291J0 74 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75

7 S!" IPCC!"#$%&'()* δ 1 C!"#$% 75 Arguments on Oceanic Carbon Cycle of IPCC Assessments A Test Using δ 1 C Budgets Jiang Aijun 1, 2, Chen Zhongxiao 1, Ren Huijun 1, Cheng Jun 1, Kato Kikuo, Oomori Tamotsu 4 (1 College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 244, China; 2 Nanjing Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 209, China; Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya , Japan; 4 Faculty of Science, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara-Cho -021, Japan) Abstract: By comparing the global carbon cycle of the IPCC assessment reports in 19, 1996, 2001 and 2007, it is found that despite the estimated sizes of the main carbon reservoirs and the fluxes between them in four reports were similar, the estimated carbon fluxes between surface and intermediate-deep sea water were quite different. The δ 1 C budget was used to test the reasonable range of these fluxes. It shows that the IPCC assessment reports in 1996 and 2007 have overestimated, whereas those in 19 and 2001 underestimated the fluxes between surface and intermediatedeep sea water. Key words: IPCC; CO 2 budgets; δ 1 C; isotope fractionation!"#$%&'()*+ ==!"#$21!"#$%&'()*+!!"#$%&'()%&'(*+,-!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'( IPCC!"#$%&' ====!"#$SRES A1BI=SRES A2I SRES B1 20!"#$%&'()"#*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'()*+!"#$!"#$%&'()*+ ====!"!#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'(SRES A1B!"#$%&'!"#$%MPI_Echam4! !"#$%&!"# SRES A2!"#$%&'()* ! M!"#$%&!"# $%==== Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 (6): 69J75 75

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