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1 GeologicalScieceadTechologyIformatio Vol.36 No.4 Jul doi /j.cki.dzkq ,,. [J].,2017,36(4) a 1a, 1b 1b 2,, (1. ( )a. ;b ; ), P-Ⅲ 12 ; Geostudio, ,, MAPE 2.86%,MSE ; ; ; P A (2017) , [1],, 50 m [2] [14-15] ; [3-4] 1963 Vajoit, [16-17] ;, 2 [5] 145~175m, [6] ;,,, [14,18-20],, [18] [7-11] [14], ; [12], [19] ;, [13] ; ( ); ( ) (1994 ), cuggzz@ cug.edu.c (1963 ),, 126.com

2 4 261 Ⅲ,P-Ⅲ [22], P-Ⅲ Γ,, 2 ~7 f(x)= P-Ⅲ Γ(α) βα x-b) α-1 e - β(x-b),(b<x < ") ; GeoStudio (1) F = F(x x p )β ; Γ(α) α (x-b) α-1 e -β(x-b) dx x p (2), α, β >0,Γ(α) α,α, β,b P-Ⅲ P-Ⅲ 3 E(x) C v 1 [23] C s 3 E(x)=α+βb,C v 槡 b = b+ α,c s = 2 (3) 槡 b β m, 300m 124 m, x m,, 225m, m 2 40m; x 1 x 2 x m x x m, m,m ( 1) m 3 x m, P m = m %, m =1,2,, (4), P y ;,, 156 ~166, 0 ~6, (E(x), C v,c s ), P-Ⅲ P = F(x)= P(X x) = +" f(x,e(x),c v,c s )dx (5) x a 4-6 P-Ⅲ 50a,, 珚 x = 1 x m m=1 烌 1 Fig.1 PlaofMaliuliladslide 2 C v = 1 x 槡 P-Ⅲ 珚 x =125.68,C v =0.443,C s = C v 0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,C s /C v m=1 (x m - 珚 x) 2 (x m - x) 珚 m=1 C s = (-1)(-2) 珚 x 3 C 3 烍 v 烎 (6)

3 ,3,4, 15, 1, 50a 280 mm ( 2) 3,5,10d, 93.3,56,28mm/d, 1 Table1 Parameterchoiceoftheoreticalfrequecycurvead calculatiooferror Cv Cs 50a /mm Fig.3 CalculatiomodelofMaliuliladslide P-Ⅲ Fig.2 FitigresultofPearsotypeⅢ distributiocurve 3 3, 0.2 m/d, θw 0.35cm 3 /cm 3 DataPoit 3.1,Va-Geuchte ( 5,6) Geostudio 3 1-1, Table3 Stregthcalculatioparametresof Maliulilad- SEEP slide / / / / (kn cm -3 ) (kn cm -3 ) kpa ( ), ( 3) Fig Experimetalresultsofshearstregthpara- metresoflaojiaoliladslide Table2 Statisticalresultsofshearstregthparametresof Laojiaoliladslide c/kpa φ /( ) =20,,

4 Fig.5 Soilwatercharacteristiccurve,, Morgester-Price [24] ( M-P ), M-P Geo-Slope 7,, 165 m, ,0.081,0.077, m 145 m,, ,, ( 5) 6 Fig.6 Curveofpermeabilitycoeficiet 3.1.3, 3 0.6,1.2,2.0m/d 7, 12 ( 4) Fig.7 Relatioshipbetweestabilitycoeficietof 4 ladslideadreservoirwaterlevel Table4 Workcoditiosforthecalculatioofladslide /(m d -1 ) /(mm d -1 ) , 8-a 3 150m ; 4 158m, 9, 1/3 165m,

5 Table5 Ladslidestabilitycoeficietuderthecharacteristicvalueofreservoirwaterlevel /(m d -1 ) 175m 165m 145m Fig.8 Chageofladslidestabilitycoeficietwithdiferetraifalcoditios, [25], 4 x (0),x (1) x (0) (k),x (1) = AGOx (0), 3,4, 7,8,12 x (0) = (x (0) (1),x (0) (2),,x (0) ()) (7) x (1) = (x (1) (1),x (1) (2),,x (1) ()) (8), x (0) GM(1,1) x (0) (k)+az (1) (k)=b (9), a ;b x (1) (k) x (0) (k+1)=x (1) (k+1)-x (1) (k) (10) {x t } p, m, p -m, p x m+1, x 1, {x 2 ~x m+1 }, x m+2 x p, ( ) Fig.9 Chageofladslidestabilitycoeficietuderreservoir 1.05( ) waterleveldeclieadraifal Matlab 4 (11) (12) 4.1 [26] y = x ,R 2 =0.999 (11)

6 4 265 y =-10-6 x x R ,55(1) =0.999 (12) [5], x (d);y (MAPE) (MSE), 3 [7], 6,, MAPE 2.86%,MSE 0.033, [J]., [9] 6 Table6 Errorofdiferetpredictiomethods MAPE/% MSE (1) P-Ⅲ, (2),, 0.6,1.2,2.0 (8) m/d 1.101,1.088,1.080; rometalearthscieces,2010,60(4) , 7, 8,12 3, ,, [19], [J]. (3), [21],, [1]. [J]. [23],,2012,31(6) [2],. [J].,2015,34( 2) slideifluecedbytheefectsofreservoirwateradraifal, 482. [4] HeK Q,LiX R,YaX Q,etal.TheladslidesitheThree [3] XiaM,ReG M,MaXL.Deformatioadmechaismoflad- ThreeGorges,Chia[J].NaturalHazards,2013,68(2)467- GorgesReservoirRegio,Chiaadtheefectsofwaterstor- ageadraiotheirstability[j].evirometalgeology,. [J].,2016,43(5) [6],,,. [J].,2013,34(4) ,,. [J].,2010,31(7) [8],,,. [J].,2012,31(2) ,2011,30(6) ,. [10],,. [J].,2016,35(5) [11]HuagF M,YiK L,HeT,etal.Ifluecigfactoraalysis addisplacemet predictioi reservoirladslidesa case study of Three Gorges Reservoir (Chia)[J].Tehicki vjesik,2016, [12]. [J].,2014,31(2) [13],,,. [J].,2015,32(11) [14]. [J].,2011,32( 1) [15]. [J].,2010,17(3)5-9. [16]Jia W X,Xu Q,Yag H F,etal.Mechaism adfailure processofthe Qiajiagpigladslideithe Three Gorges Reservoir,Chia[J].EvirometalEarthScieces,2014,72 [17]LiD Y,YiK L,ChiLeo.AalysisofBaishuiheladslidei- fluecedbytheefectsofreservoirwateradraifal[j].evi- [18],,. [J].,2010,31(3) [J].,2014,31(6) [20],,.,2014,35(4) ,. [M]., [22]. SL [S].,2006..P-Ⅲ [J].,1998,29(1) [24]MorgesterN R,PriceV E.Theaalysisofthestablitityof geeralslipsurface[j].geotechique,1965,15(1) [25]. [M].,2014. [26]. [M].,2002. ( 270 )

7 GeologicalEgieerigRisksadSafetyIvestmetDecisio ChegZhiyua,XuNegxiog (SchoolofEgieerigadTechology,ChiaUiversityofGeoscieces(Beijig), Beijig100083,Chia) AbstractTherisksofgeologicalegieerigareotolycomplexaditerrelated,butalsohavelifecycle characteristics.therisksarerelatedtotheucertaitiesofgeologicalegieerig,butoly withthose kowucertaities,forukowucertaitiesdootetertheprojectrisk maagemetprocess.ithe geologicalegieerigriskmaagemet,itisotrighttoevaluatethesafetyivestmetbeefitbythedif- feretaccidetlossbetweethebeforethesafety measureadtheafterthesafety measure.hece,this paperitroducestheexpectedreveueideas,addesigsaoptimalmodelofgeologicalegieerigsafety ivestmet,whichcamakeadecisioothesecurityivestmetiprojectriskmaagemettoimproveits efectiveess. Keywordsgeologicalegieerig;riskmaagemet;optimalmodelofsafety ivestmet 檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪 ( 265 ) StabilityEvaluatioadPredictioofMaliuliLadslide uderreservoirwaterleveldeclieadraifal GuoZizheg 1a,YiKulog 1a,TagYag 1b,HuagFamig 1b,FuXiaoli 2 (1a.FacultyofEgieerig;1b.GeologicalSurvey,ChiaUiversityofGeoscieces(Wuha), Wuha430074,Chia;2.ChiaIstituteofGeo-EvirometMoitorig,Beijig100081,Chia) AbstractItisofgreatsigificacetoresearchstabilitychagecharacteristicsofdebrisladslidesithe ThreeGorgesReservoirregioudertheefectofreservoirwaterlevelfluctuatioadraifaladpredict thestability.geologicalmodelofmaliuliladslidewasestablishedi WazhouDistrictofThreeGorges Reservoirregio,ad12workcoditiosweresetaftertheaalysisofrepetitioperiodofraifalothe basisofp-Ⅲ distributiocurve.simulatioofladslidestabilitywascarriedoutbyusiggeostudiosoft- ware.theresultsidicatethatthereservoirwaterleveldecliesadraifalifiltratiodecreases.thesta- bilitycoeficietofladslideadamplitudeofvariatiohasapositivecorrelatiowithbothrateofdecliig ofreservoirwaterleveladraifalitesity.theresposeofthestabilitytotheraifalismoresesitive. Thestabilitycoeficietis0.95ad0.949ithetwo mostegativeworkcoditioswithistabilityad failureofladslide.thegray modelwasusedtocarryoutroligforecastofthestabilitycoeficietof ladslideothemostegativeworkcoditio.themapeis2.86% ad MSEis0.033.Theaccuracyof graymodelisbeterthathatofthepolyomialmodel. Keywordsreservoirwaterleveldeclie;raifal;ladslidestability;graymodel;predictio

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