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1 E21, E42, E

2 Mishkin, 28; igliz, 29; Krugman, Lucas mispercepion 2. Moren Ravn and Marin ola 25

3 . 1. Moneariss 2. Expeced Money

4 . P i s > M. Ravn & M. ola, 25 P p P Y i U i GY, - sd i D i Y M P M. Ravn and M. ola, all and Romer 2. all and Mankiw 3. Menu Cos

5 M P P p i U i G, - sd i s NA U GM,1 P * U CP G M, i s P M. Ravn and M. ola, 25 * NA CP P U - U > G M, i GM,1 < P M 1

6 1. Firs order coss 2. econd order coss 3. Ridhwan and e al 4. Mea-Analysis. 5. Edilean Kleber da ilva and Marcelo avino

7 . &P 1. Tan iow Hooi1 and e al 2. hiu-heng Chen 3. Moren Ravn and Marin ola 4. Parker & Rohman

8 M 1 1. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih

10 M. Ravn and M. ola, Jonsson 2. ecker 3. Lucas 4. arro 5. oschen and Grossman 6. Mishkin

11 m ϕ l Θ ε m -1 x 1 y z ε ε ξ m Θ ϕl x 1 ψ y z y γ µ s ϕ y 1-1 s u γ s u p γ s u... p ε ε - µ s ϕ y p γ -p s p - µ u s -p p ε y γ si γ si u 1 u i µ s ε max, ε, ε min, ε

12 M. Ravn and M. ola, 25 y ψ z e e 1 ξ e 1. Fischer and aer 2. Long-run neuraliy 3. Long-run uperneuraliy

13 s,1 m ' 1 µ s 1 Θx 1 σ s η µ s ϕ l m ϕl ' x 1 Θ s µ s x µ x η s -1 M.Ravn and M. ola, 25 s * E 1 m µ ϕ m 1 µ µπ 1 Θx 1 1 * E 1 m µ µ ϕ m 1 µ µπ 11 Θx 1 * π 1 π 11 π ij ε ε s P s i s 1 j, i, j,1 m µ ϕ 2 m σ 1 µ µπ 1 Θx 1 m µ µ ϕ ~ N, 2 1 m σ 1 1 µ µπ 11 Θx 1 ~ N,

14 I i s P i ] [ s I s P x m m e Θ µπ µ ϕ µ 1 ] [ I s P x m m e Θ µπ µ ϕ µ },,, { e e e e e e e e e e e e e z y ξ ψ s s H :

15 H : M2 1. Hodrick and Presco

16 1. Wavele 2. Fourier analysis 3. Heisenberg's curse

17 ψ ϕ s k k j j ij j j ij ψ ψ ϕ ϕ µ µ 1 µ ψ ψ 1 2, j j µ ψ ψ µ 1 µ ψ ψ M f d a b f a 1 b. fa W d 2 f 2, f W 2 2 k k j j j y 1. Muli Resoluion Decomposiion

18 k k k k k j k j k k j k j k k j k j d d d y... 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, ψ ψ ψ ϕ j,, k j k ψ j ϕ

19 m e M l Y M M ~ 1

20 ~ Y ly l M ˆ ~ Y l M 1 ~ e M M Y l M 1 1 y ψ z e e 1 ξ EVIEW.7 MATLA HP MONEYG HPM HP

21 GAP 2 R F ADF P M2GDP G OR 1. Augmened Dickey Fuller ADF Tes 2. Perron 3. Inegraed

22 PP ADF ln GDP Ln M2 Ln P Ln OR Ln G DM2DGDP DM1 DP PP ADF DGDP DM2 DM1 DP

23 λ max Trace r r r r r r r r r r r r

24 λ max Trace Dm Dy 1 r r r r Dm Dy 2 r r r r H

25 LR P value LR LR 1. likelihood raio

26 M1 Ln e e e e P ln G ln 1 ln G ln OR 1 ln OR ECM σ Y Q1 Q1 Log likelihood LR es

28 ECM 1 ICAIC

31 12. all, L. and N.G. Mankiew; 1994, "Asymmeric price adjusmen and Economic Flucuaions", Economic journal Vol. 14, pp arro, R.J; 1997,"Unanicipaed money Growh and Unemploymen in he Unied sae", American Economic Review, Vol. 67, pp arro, R.J; 1998, "Unanicipaed money oupu, and he price level in he Unied sae", journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 86, pp lanchard, O.J. and D. Quah; 1989, "The Dynamic Effecs of Aggregae Demand and upply Disurbances", American Economic Review, Vol. 79. pp Chen,.; 27, "Does Moneary Policy Have Asymmeric Effecs on ock Reurns?", Journal of Money, Credi and anking, lackwell Publishing, Vol. 39, pp Cover, J.p; 1992, "Asymmeric Effec of posiive and negaive moneysupply shocks", Quarerly journal of Economics, Vol. 17, pp Da silva, E.K. and avino, M.P; 29, "Asymmeric effecs of moneary policy in razil", Esudos Economics. Vol. 39, pp De long,.j. and summers, L; 1988, "How dose Macroeconomic Policy Affec oupu?", rookings Papers on Economic Aciviy, Vol. 2, pp Fisher, M.E. and J.J eaer; 1993, "Long-run neuraliy and super neuraliy in an ARIMA framework", American Economic Review, Vol.833, pp Fridman.M.and K.n Kuner; 1993, "Anoher Lock a he Evidence on Money income Causaliy". Journal of Economerics, Vol. 57, pp Hooi, T., Habibullah, M. and mih, P.A; 28, "The Asymmeric Effecs of Moneary Policy in Four Asian Economies", Inernaional Applied Economics and Managemen, Vol. 11, pp Karras, K; 1996, "why are he effecs of money-supply shock Asymmeric? Convex Aggregae supply or Pushing on a sring"?' journal of macroeconomics, Vol. 18 No. 4 pp Krugman, P; 28, "The Reurn of Depression Economics and hecrisis of 28", New York: W. W. Noron. 25. Masih R. and M.M. Masih; 1996, "Macroeconomic aciviy dynamics and Granger causaliy: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a Vecor error-correcion Modelling analysis", Economic Modeling, Vol. 13, pp Masih, A.M.M. and Masih, R; 1995, "Temporal causaliy and he dynamic ineracions among macroeconomic aciviy wihin a mulivariae coinegraed sysem: evidence from ingapore and Korea", Welwirschafliches Archive, Vol. 131 pp Miller,.M; 1991, "Moneary Dynamics: An Applicaion of Coinegraion and Error-Correcion Modelingi", Journal of Money, Credi, and anking, Vol. 23, pp Mishkan, F.; 1982, "Dose Anicipaed Policy maer? An Economeric invesigaion". Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 9, pp Maskin, E; 28, "Dear Mr. Presiden: Advice from seven Nobel Laureaes on Fixing he Economy", Available a: hp:// /id/ /page/5.

32 3. Parker, R. and Rohman, P; 23, "An Examinaion of he Asymmeric Effecs of Money upply hocks in he Pre-World War I and Inerwar Periods", Economic Inquiry, Oxford Universiy Press, Vol. 42, pp Ravn, M. and M. sola; 1996, "A Reconsideraion of he Empirical Evidence on he Asymmeric Effecs of moneysupply shock: Posiive vs. negaive ig vs. small?", ribeck college WP, No Ravn, M. and M. sola; 25, "Asymmeric Effecs of Moneary Policy in he Unied aes", Federal Reserve ank of. Louis Review, pp Ridhwan, M.M, Henri L.F., Nijkamp, P.A and Rieveld, P; 21, "The Impac of Moneary Policy on Economic Aciviy Evidence from a Mea-Analysis", Tinbergen Insiue Discussion Paper, Neherlands, Working Paper 43/ igliz, J. E; 29, "Tesimony before he Congressional Oversigh Panel, Regulaory Reform Hearing", Available a:hp://cop.senae. gov/ documens /esimony-1149-sigliz.pdf.

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