22 12 2013 12 ResourcesandEnvironmentintheYangtzeBasin Vol.22No.12 Dec.2013 1 2 1 1 1 (1. 210044;2. 010051) : 1985~2007 1985~2010 4 : (1985~2000 ) (2001~2010 ) 0.1/10a 0.6/10a; 1985~2007 0.3 2000 0.19 /10a ; 0.75 : ; ; ; :F291.1 :A :1004-8227(2013)12-1543-07 Oke [10] IPCC ; [1] 100a Chun [11] 0.72 50a [12] [2] : [13] [14] [15] [3] [1617] / ; [18] [4~6] (Artificial Neural Network ANN) [7] [8] [19] [9] 1986 Rumelhart Mccleland [20] BP ANN :2012-11-14; :2013-03-18 : (PAPD) ; (41005012) : (1987~ E-mail:liuxin 0817@126.com. ).
1544 22 (1) [21] BP 2000 2001 2002 30a 1 1.1 5 ( 1)1985~2007 K= ( 2007 槡 i+ j+a(a [110] ) 2007 ) #$!" %& # () N 0 5 10 20 30 40 km Landsat 1985~2002 (2)BP BP [23] 1~5 :1 ;2 ;3 ;4 ;5 6 5 1 5 1 2 i j k ωki i k ωjk j k 1!"1 Fig.1 DistributionofMeteorologicalStations inthestudyarea 2 3 4 #$%& 1.2 5! jk 1.2.1 6! ki I k j % ( )*( %&( [22] 4 2 BP Fig.2 StructureofBP NeuralNetwork BP : 0.1; Logsig Purelin
12 : 1545 ; : Y ij = xij 1000 0.001 max(x j ) i=1 2 25;j=12 6 (6) (3) Z i = n j=1 Yij K ij n =12 6 (7) BP :x ij i j ;Y ij i j ;x j j ; Z i i ;K ij i j [24] r ij = p k=1 ωki (1-e -x )/(1+e -x ) (1) x=ωjk (2) R ij = 1-e-y 1+e -y (3) y=r ij (4) S ij = R ij / m i=1 Rij (5) :r ij ;i i=1 m;j j=1 2.1 n;k k=1 p;ωki i k ;ωjk j k ;R ij ; S ; (4) 32129 (6) 830524 30707.5 ; (7) +-./0%(1) <=8>?(@>) 640 600 560 520 480 8.0 10 5 6.0 10 5 4.0 10 5 2.0 10 5 0.0 1.2.2 4 2 1985~2010 465.8 632.4 1.4% ; 8 183.7 3!"#$%(& ( )*) 2345678%(&9:;) 4 10 6 3 10 6 2 10 6 1 10 6 0 6 10 3 5 10 3 4 10 3 3 10 3 2 10 3 1 10 3 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 AB AB 3 Fig.3 AnnualVariationofUrbanizationIndexesinNanjing
1546 22 0.01 1991 1991 1999 ;21 4.4 10 11 kw h/a 23 10 11 kw h/a; 2000 2001 0.06 15 ; 6 1999 (1991~2010) 2000 3 R 2 0.9 10 4 4 : 29.19%; 27.38% 25.5%; 17.92% 5 Fig.5 AnnualVariationofUrbanizationComprehensive IndexinNanjing 2.2 1985~2007 ( 6a) 1985 0.81 /10a 0.75 /10a 1985~1999 0.80 /10a 0.79 /10a 4 ;2000 Fig.4 WeightofEachUrbanizationIndex 1.14 /10a 0.91 /10a ( 5) 1985 1985 ( 6b) 2010 1985 23a 0.3 4.6 ; 2000 :1985~2000 2001~ 0.19 /10a 2010
12 : 1547 18 17 (a) 0.6 0.5 (b)!"#$(%) 16 ) *+(%) 0.4 0.3 0.2 15 & ( 0.1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 -. -. 6 1985~2007 (a) (b) Fig.6 VariationofAnnualAverageTemperature(a)andHeatIslandIntensity(b)inNanjingfrom1985to2007 ( 1) ( 7) 2000 2000 1985~ 1989 20 80 1 1990~ Tab.1 CorelationCoeficientsofEachUrbanizationIndex 1999 20 90 andheatislandintensity 7 :80 90 21 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.05 0.75 ( ) *(+) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 y=0.35 x+0.17 R 2 =0.56 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8!"#$%& 0.68 3 : (1) (2) 7 1985 Fig.7 RelationshipBetween HeatIslandandUrbanization ComprehensiveIndexinNanjing 2000 2000
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12 : 1549 APRELIMINARYRESEARCH OFURBANIZATIONPROCESS AND HEATISLANDEFFECTIN NANJING LIU Xin 12 LIUShou-dong 1 ZHAO Xiao-yan 1 WANG Yong-wei 1 (1.Yale-NUISTCenteronAtmosphericEnvironmentofNanjingUniversityofInformationScience & TechnologyNanjing210044China; 2.InnerMongoliaClimateCenterHohhot010051China) Abstract:Urbanizationprocesshasoutstandinginfluenceontheclimatechange.It sveryimportantto analyzetheurbanizationprocesscomprehensivelyandaccurately.theresearchesinthepastoftenuse singleindex methodsuchaspopulationtorepresenttheprocessofurbanization.buturbanizationisa comprehensiveprocesswhichcanreflectthelevelofregionaleconomicsocialandculturedevelopment.in thispaperanew method wasusedtocalculatetheurbanizationcomprehensiveevaluationindexandthe relationshipbetween urbanization processand urban heatisland was discussed.taken Nanjing asan examplefouroutstandingurbanizationindexdatafrom 1985to2010hadbeenselectedincludingurban populationpower consumptioncivil car ownership and waste gas emissions.based on the back- propaqation (BP)artificialneuralnetworksthe weightofeachindex wascalculated.combined with aggregative indicator methodthe urbanization comprehensive evaluation index presenting the comprehensiveurbanizationlevelwasbuiltandtheheatislandefectin Nanjing wasanalyzedbyanual averagetemperature(1985-2007).meanwhileinordertodiscusstherelationshipbetweenurbanization processandurbanheatislandcorrelationanalysiswasconducted.theresultsshowasfolows.(1)the weightsofevaluationindexbybpartificialneuralnetworkwereallargeespecialythecivilcarownership reached29.19%.itindicatedthat populationenergyenvironmentand otheraspects of urbanization processwereofgreatsignificancetotheurbandevelopmentlevelevaluation.thussingleindex methodis notaccurate.(2) The new methodin this paper could presentthe urbanization prcess beter.the urbanizationcomprehensiveevaluationindexhadagoodperform topresenttheurbanizationprocessof Nanjing.ItwasdividedintotwostagesinNanjing.Onewasstabledevelopmentstage (1985-2000)and anotherwasrapiddevelopmentstage (2001-2010).Thegrowthrateofurbanizationcomprehensive evaluationindexwas0.1/10aand0.6/10arespectively.inadditiontheefectduetorapiddevelopment wasdiferentfromslowdevelopment.(3)themeanannualtemperatureshowedafluctuatedincreaseand hadsharpdistinctionbetweenurbanandsuburbantemperature.themeandistinctionwas0.3.theheat islandintensityappearedrisingtrend.thegrowthtrendpresentedobviouslyespecialyafter2000 by 0.19 /10a.(4)Thecorrelationbetweenheatislandintensityandurbanizationcomprehensiveindex was remarkable.thecorrelation coeficient was0.75 and wassignificantlyrelated atconfidencelevelof 0.05.Eachsingleindexhadhighcorrelationtotheheatislandintensity.Amongthemcivilcarownership wasofthelargestcorrelation.itindicatedthattheurbanizationhadgreatefectonthesurfacewarming especialyintheautomobileexhaustindustrialwastegasemissionsandenergyconsumptions. Keywords:urbanization;heatislandefect;BPartificialneuralnetworks;aggregativeindicatormethod