36 4 2017 7 GeologicalScieceadTechologyIformatio Vol.36 No.4 Jul. 2017 doi10.19509/j.cki.dzkq.2017.0435,,. [J].,2017,36(4)260-265. 1a 1a, 1b 1b 2,, (1. ( )a. ;b. 430074;2. 100081), P-Ⅲ 12 ; Geostudio, 2 0.95 0.949,, MAPE 2.86%,MSE 0.033 ; ; ; P642.22 A 1000-7849(2017)04-0260-06 8, [1],, 50 m 3 154 [2] [14-15] ; [3-4] 1963 Vajoit, [16-17] ;, 2 [5] 145~175m, [6] ;,,, [14,18-20],, [18] [7-11] [14], ; [12], [19] ;, [13] ; 2017-03-14 (41572292); (0431203) (1994 ), E-mailcuggzz@ cug.edu.c (1963 ),, E-mailyikl @ 126.com
4 261 Ⅲ,P-Ⅲ [22], P-Ⅲ Γ,, 2 ~7 f(x)= P-Ⅲ Γ(α) βα x-b) α-1 e - β(x-b),(b<x < ") ; GeoStudio (1) F = F(x x p )β ; Γ(α) α (x-b) α-1 e -β(x-b) dx x p (2), α, β >0,Γ(α) α,α, β,b P-Ⅲ P-Ⅲ 3 E(x) C v 1 [23] C s 3 E(x)=α+βb,C v 槡 b = b+ α,c s = 2 (3) 槡 b β 15 450m, 300m 124 m, x m,, 225m, 13.5 10 4 m 2 40m; x 1 x 2 x m x x m, m,m ( 1) 270 10 4 m 3 x m, P m = m +1 100%, m =1,2,, (4), P y ;,, 156 ~166, 0 ~6, (E(x), C v,c s ), P-Ⅲ P = F(x)= P(X x) = +" f(x,e(x),c v,c s )dx (5) x 2.2 1960-2013 54a 4-6 P-Ⅲ 50a,, 珚 x = 1 x m m=1 烌 1 Fig.1 PlaofMaliuliladslide 2 C v = 1 x 槡 -1 2.1 P-Ⅲ 珚 x =125.68,C v =0.443,C s = 1.518 C v 0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,C s /C v m=1 (x m - 珚 x) 2 (x m - x) 珚 m=1 C s = (-1)(-2) 珚 x 3 C 3 烍 v 烎 (6)
262 2017 2,3,4, 15, 1, 50a 280 mm ( 2) 3,5,10d, 93.3,56,28mm/d, 1 Table1 Parameterchoiceoftheoreticalfrequecycurvead calculatiooferror Cv Cs 50a /mm 0.443 1.518 917 280 1 0.2 0.4 33665 183 2 0.2 0.6 33408 185 3 0.2 0.8 32336 187 4 0.3 0.6 12042 215 5 0.3 0.9 11415 220 6 0.3 1.2 11998 225 7 0.4 0.8 2641 250 8 0.4 1.2 1884 257 9 0.4 1.6 2426 265 10 0.5 1.0 4872 285 11 0.5 1.5 2759 297 12 0.5 2.0 3740 300 13 0.6 1.2 17978 300 14 0.6 1.8 13397 300 15 0.6 2.4 12095 300 3 Fig.3 CalculatiomodelofMaliuliladslide 3.1.2 20 4 2 2 P-Ⅲ Fig.2 FitigresultofPearsotypeⅢ distributiocurve 3 3, 0.2 m/d, θw 0.35cm 3 /cm 3 DataPoit 3.1,Va-Geuchte 3.1.1 ( 5,6) Geostudio 3 1-1, Table3 Stregthcalculatioparametresof Maliulilad- SEEP slide / / / / (kn cm -3 ) (kn cm -3 ) kpa ( ), 2424 2407 ( 3) 20.5 21.5 30 18 Fig.4 4 2 Experimetalresultsofshearstregthpara- metresoflaojiaoliladslide Table2 Statisticalresultsofshearstregthparametresof Laojiaoliladslide c/kpa 26.15 6.26 0.239 φ /( ) 17.44 1.42 0.081 =20,,
4 263 5 Fig.5 Soilwatercharacteristiccurve,, Morgester-Price [24] ( M-P ), M-P 3.2.2 Geo-Slope 7,, 165 m, 3 0.083,0.081,0.077, 0.006 165 m 145 m,,3 0.021,, ( 5) 6 Fig.6 Curveofpermeabilitycoeficiet 3.1.3, 3 0.6,1.2,2.0m/d 7, 12 ( 4) Fig.7 Relatioshipbetweestabilitycoeficietof 4 ladslideadreservoirwaterlevel Table4 Workcoditiosforthecalculatioofladslide /(m d -1 ) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.6 1.2 2.0 /(mm d -1 ) 28 56 93.3 28 56 93.3 28 56 93.3 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.3 8, 8-a 3 150m ; 4 158m, 9, 1/3 165m,
264 2017 5 Table5 Ladslidestabilitycoeficietuderthecharacteristicvalueofreservoirwaterlevel /(m d -1 ) 175m 165m 145m 1 0.6 1.273 1.190 1.101 5 1.2 1.269 1.188 1.088 9 2.0 1.261 1.184 1.080 8 Fig.8 Chageofladslidestabilitycoeficietwithdiferetraifalcoditios, [25], 4 x (0),x (1) x (0) (k),x (1) = AGOx (0), 3,4, 7,8,12 x (0) = (x (0) (1),x (0) (2),,x (0) ()) (7) x (1) = (x (1) (1),x (1) (2),,x (1) ()) (8), x (0) GM(1,1) x (0) (k)+az (1) (k)=b (9), a ;b x (1) (k) x (0) (k+1)=x (1) (k+1)-x (1) (k) (10) {x t } p, m, p -m, p x m+1, x 1, {x 2 ~x m+1 }, x m+2 x p, 4.2 4 9 1.05( ) Fig.9 Chageofladslidestabilitycoeficietuderreservoir 1.05( ) waterleveldeclieadraifal Matlab 4 (11) (12) 4.1 [26] 20 70 y =-0.0084x+1.2829,R 2 =0.999 (11)
4 265 y =-10-6 x 2-0.0083x+1.2827 R 2 2008,55(1)55-63. =0.999 (12) [5], x (d);y (MAPE) (MSE), 3 [7], 6,, MAPE 2.86%,MSE 0.033, [J]., [9] 6 Table6 Errorofdiferetpredictiomethods MAPE/% MSE 3.72 0.045 3.68 0.044 2.86 0.033 5 (1) P-Ⅲ, (2),, 0.6,1.2,2.0 (8)2999-3013. m/d 1.101,1.088,1.080; rometalearthscieces,2010,60(4)677-687., 7, 8,12 3,4 0.95 0.949,, [19], [J]. (3), [21],, 2007. [1]. [J]. [23],,2012,31(6)168-173. [2],. [J].,2015,34( 2) 4204-4215. slideifluecedbytheefectsofreservoirwateradraifal, 482. [4] HeK Q,LiX R,YaX Q,etal.TheladslidesitheThree [3] XiaM,ReG M,MaXL.Deformatioadmechaismoflad- ThreeGorges,Chia[J].NaturalHazards,2013,68(2)467- GorgesReservoirRegio,Chiaadtheefectsofwaterstor- ageadraiotheirstability[j].evirometalgeology,. [J].,2016,43(5) 111-118. [6],,,. [J].,2013,34(4)1017-1024.,,. [J].,2010,31(7)2264-2269. [8],,,. [J].,2012,31(2)117-121.,2011,30(6)128-132.,. [10],,. [J].,2016,35(5)208-213. [11]HuagF M,YiK L,HeT,etal.Ifluecigfactoraalysis addisplacemet predictioi reservoirladslidesa case study of Three Gorges Reservoir (Chia)[J].Tehicki vjesik,2016,23617-626. [12]. [J].,2014,31(2)57-67. [13],,,. [J].,2015,32(11)87-92. [14]. [J].,2011,32( 1)476-482. [15]. [J].,2010,17(3)5-9. [16]Jia W X,Xu Q,Yag H F,etal.Mechaism adfailure processofthe Qiajiagpigladslideithe Three Gorges Reservoir,Chia[J].EvirometalEarthScieces,2014,72 [17]LiD Y,YiK L,ChiLeo.AalysisofBaishuiheladslidei- fluecedbytheefectsofreservoirwateradraifal[j].evi- [18],,. [J].,2010,31(3)805-810.. [J].,2014,31(6)25-31. [20],,.,2014,35(4)1123-1130.,. [M]., [22]. SL44-2006[S].,2006..P-Ⅲ [J].,1998,29(1)33-38. [24]MorgesterN R,PriceV E.Theaalysisofthestablitityof geeralslipsurface[j].geotechique,1965,15(1)79-93. [25]. [M].,2014. [26]. [M].,2002. ( 270 )
270 2017 GeologicalEgieerigRisksadSafetyIvestmetDecisio ChegZhiyua,XuNegxiog (SchoolofEgieerigadTechology,ChiaUiversityofGeoscieces(Beijig), Beijig100083,Chia) AbstractTherisksofgeologicalegieerigareotolycomplexaditerrelated,butalsohavelifecycle characteristics.therisksarerelatedtotheucertaitiesofgeologicalegieerig,butoly withthose kowucertaities,forukowucertaitiesdootetertheprojectrisk maagemetprocess.ithe geologicalegieerigriskmaagemet,itisotrighttoevaluatethesafetyivestmetbeefitbythedif- feretaccidetlossbetweethebeforethesafety measureadtheafterthesafety measure.hece,this paperitroducestheexpectedreveueideas,addesigsaoptimalmodelofgeologicalegieerigsafety ivestmet,whichcamakeadecisioothesecurityivestmetiprojectriskmaagemettoimproveits efectiveess. Keywordsgeologicalegieerig;riskmaagemet;optimalmodelofsafety ivestmet 檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪檪 ( 265 ) StabilityEvaluatioadPredictioofMaliuliLadslide uderreservoirwaterleveldeclieadraifal GuoZizheg 1a,YiKulog 1a,TagYag 1b,HuagFamig 1b,FuXiaoli 2 (1a.FacultyofEgieerig;1b.GeologicalSurvey,ChiaUiversityofGeoscieces(Wuha), Wuha430074,Chia;2.ChiaIstituteofGeo-EvirometMoitorig,Beijig100081,Chia) AbstractItisofgreatsigificacetoresearchstabilitychagecharacteristicsofdebrisladslidesithe ThreeGorgesReservoirregioudertheefectofreservoirwaterlevelfluctuatioadraifaladpredict thestability.geologicalmodelofmaliuliladslidewasestablishedi WazhouDistrictofThreeGorges Reservoirregio,ad12workcoditiosweresetaftertheaalysisofrepetitioperiodofraifalothe basisofp-Ⅲ distributiocurve.simulatioofladslidestabilitywascarriedoutbyusiggeostudiosoft- ware.theresultsidicatethatthereservoirwaterleveldecliesadraifalifiltratiodecreases.thesta- bilitycoeficietofladslideadamplitudeofvariatiohasapositivecorrelatiowithbothrateofdecliig ofreservoirwaterleveladraifalitesity.theresposeofthestabilitytotheraifalismoresesitive. Thestabilitycoeficietis0.95ad0.949ithetwo mostegativeworkcoditioswithistabilityad failureofladslide.thegray modelwasusedtocarryoutroligforecastofthestabilitycoeficietof ladslideothemostegativeworkcoditio.themapeis2.86% ad MSEis0.033.Theaccuracyof graymodelisbeterthathatofthepolyomialmodel. Keywordsreservoirwaterleveldeclie;raifal;ladslidestability;graymodel;predictio