μ 2011 μ μ ; μ. μ, Greg Hannsgen Gennaro Zezza μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ. μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ 2007 09. μ, μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ.,, μ μμ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ,, μ., μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μ «Jerome Levy». Greg Hannsgen μ μ. Gennaro Zezza μ Università di Cassino μ. Copyright 2012 Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
2 μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ 1 μ μ μ ( ) μ 2011 2012 μ μ, μ μ, μ μ. 2011 2% μ μ μ μ μ, μ 1,1%. ( -μ μ 0,6% [Dalton 2011])., μ μ, μ μ, μ 1,9%. Figure 1 IMF Annual Real GDP Growth Forecasts World Advanced United States Eurozone Japan UK Developing China India Brazil Russia 2011 2012-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Percent Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database μ 2012 μ μ μ, μ μ μ -., μ, μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ μ μ 2012., μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μ 1,6% 2011 0,2% 2012 (OECD 2011). μ, μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ, μ μ
3 μ μ., μ μ μ μμ μ μ μ μ,, μ 20. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ, μ μ μ,.. μ 2 μ «μ μ» 2000 16. μμ μμ μμ, μμ μ «μ μ». μ μμ μ μ μ μ, μμ μμ μ μ μμ. μμ, μμ μ μ, μ 2007 09., μμ μ μ. μ μμ 2013, μ μ μ. 2014, μμ μ μ 468 273. μ μ μ μμ 194, μ 1,3%, 15. μμ, μ μ μ. μ μ 6,7% μ (St. Louis Fed 2011).
4 Figure 2 Current Account Balances 3 2 Percent of World GDP 1 0-1 -2-3 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Rest of the World Oil Exporters Emerging Asia Germany and Japan Other Developed Countries United States Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database μ μ μ, μ, μ. ( μ, μ, μ μ μ, μ μ 2011 [ Parkin 2011]). μμ, «μ» μ μ μ μμ. μ μ μ μμ μ, μ, μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μμ, μ μ μ μ μ μ 10% μ μ μ. μ 3 μ μ μ ( μ μ ) μ μ μ μ μμ μ μ, μ 2016. μμ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μμ
5 μ 1,5% μ. μ, μμ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 3 US Main Sector Balances: Effects of a Devaluation* 2.0 1.5 Percent of GDP 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 External Balance Private Sector Investment minus Saving Government Deficit * Difference against baseline solution 2016 Source: Authors calculations μ, μ μ μ,,, μ. μ 4, μ μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, 2001-02, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ. μμ μ μ, μ μ μ μ 2003 2010. μμ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ μ μ, μ.
6 Figure 4 Real Disposable Income, Wages, and Consumption 8 Annual Growth Rate in Percent 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 1990 1995 2000 Consumption Real Personal Disposable Income Real Wages 2005 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) μ μ. μ 5, μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ, μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ.
7 Figure 5 Profits and Investment in Nonfinancial Business 9.5 9.0 Percent of GDP 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 1995 2000 2005 Gross Saving (lagged 6 quarters) Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Equipment and Software 2010 Source: BEA 2009. μ μ μ μ μ 1970 80 ( μμ 6). μ ( μ ) (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) 3.4 μμ, 12.6 μμ μ (5.6 μμ 6.9 μμ ) μ (BLS 2011). μ, 5.6 μμ 27 μ, 8.3 μμ μ μ μ μ.
8 Figure 6 Employment as a Share of Working-age Population 66 64 62 Percent 60 58 56 54 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Employment Note: Shaded areas indicate recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) μ, μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ.,, μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ 1937 1938 (Bartlett 2011, Krugman 2011). μ μ μ μ 2010. 1936, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μμ. μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μ μ. μμ, μ, μ. μ, μ μ 7% 1937 11% 1938, μ μμ 38% 1937 24%
9 μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ 1938., μ μ μ μ μ 1.2 μμ 10. - μ μ μ μμ μ μ. -, μ μ 2013,,, μ μ. μ μ μ, 447,., μ μ μ μμ.,, μ μ. μ μ μ 1. μ 1 μ μ 1, 1., μ,, μ μ μ μ, μ., μ μ. μ, μ μ μ, μμ μ.,, «μ μ» μ μ. μ, μ, μ - μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ μ, (White House 2011).
10 A μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ (, μ,, μ μ,.)., μ μ μ μ μ (ASCE 2009). μ μ,, μ μ 2005, μ μ D+. μ μ, μμ μ μ 550 μ μ. μ 7, μ μ μ μ., μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μ bona fide μ μ μ 2012.
11 Figure 7 Government Investment* in OECD Countries, 1995 2009 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK United States 0 1 2 3 4 Percent of GDP OECD average (2.83 percent) * Government expenditure on gross fixed capital formation 5 6 Source: OECD μ, μ ; μ, μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μμ μ,. μ Head Start, μ, Medicaid, μ μ (Antonopoulos et al, 2010, Kim Antonopoulos 2011)., μ, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ., μ μ., μ μ, μ, μ.
12 μ μ 1 μ μμ μ μ. μ μ μ 100 μ μ (Barro 2011). μ μ μ,. μ μ, Alan Blinder μ μ : «, μ μμ μ μ μ μ... μ μ,, μ μ» (2011). μ, μ μ μ μ μ, μμ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ, - -,., μ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ., μ μ 100. μ, μ μ μ μ 60 μ μ. μ μ μ 6% 10% 20., μ μ μ μ μ 6% 60 μ, 3.60. 56.40 μ., μ, μ 100 156.40. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ (Barro 2011). μ μ μ μ 6% 10%. μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ
13. μ μ, μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ,,, μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ (Romer 2011). μ μ de facto μ μ μ μ μ μ. μμ, μ μ μ., μ μ μ, μ. μ μ μ 8. μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 8 Indexes of the Real Prices for Equities and Existing Homes (January 2000 = 100) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Existing Home Price Index S&P 500 Index Sources: S&P; National Association of Realtors; BEA μ μ, μ, μ μ,.
14 Daniel Tarullo, μ μ μ, «μ μ μ μ μμ., μ» (2011,. 6)., μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ. 30 μ μ μ μ μ μμ. μ μ, μ Tarullo μ μ μ μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ 2 μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ, μ : 84.2, 501.8 μ μ, 574.5 μ μ μ, 479.7 μμ μ, 77 μ μ, 46.1 μ Treasury, 15.4 μ μ, 235.5 μ μ (Federal Reserve, 2011b)., 1.5 μ μ μ (Federal Reserve 2011a) μ μ,.,, μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ (Federal Reserve Board of Governors 2011c). μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ 9 μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ subprime. «μ» μ μ,,
15 μ, 1980 1990. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 9 Debt Burden 19 Disposable Personal Income in percent 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Financial Obligation Ratio Debt-service Ratio Source: Federal Reserve μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μμ μ μ, μ μ μ μμ μ. μ μ, μμ, μ μ μ μμ μ (CBO 2011). μ μ μ μ μ 2% μ., μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ. μ 10, μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ 2% 2012. μ μ 1,5% 2% 2016. μ. μ μ, μ 2012,, μ
16 9% μ ( μ 13). μ 10 μ μ μμ ( ) μ μ,, 94% 2016. μμ μ, μ μ μ. μ, μ μμ μ, μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 10 Baseline Scenario: US Main Sector Balances and Real GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate in Percent 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Government Deficit (right scale) External Balance (right scale) Private Sector Investment minus Saving (right scale) Real GDP Growth (left scale) 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Percent of GDP Sources: BEA; authors calculations, μ, μ μ μ.
17 1 μ μ μ μ 2013, μ μ μ μ, 1.2. 1, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μμ, μ μ 2012, 1.5 μ μ 2016., μ, μ, μ μ μ μμ., μ, μ 2,3% 2,8%, μ 2012, μ 11. μ 0,6% μ 2014, 1% μ. Figure 11 Scenario 1: US Main Sector Balances and Real GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate in Percent 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Government Deficit (right scale) External Balance (right scale) Private Sector Investment minus Saving (right scale) Real GDP Growth (left scale) 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Percent of GDP Sources: BEA; authors calculations μ μ, μ μ., μμ μ 0,2%, μ
18 μ μ. μμ μ, -2,6% μ. μ μ μμ, μ μμ μ. μ, μ, 2,4% μ μ. μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ.,, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, 10,7% μ 2016 ( 13). 2 μ μ μ μ μ 2, μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ : (1) μ μ μ 2%,, (2) μ μ μ 7% 2016. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ 7% 2016. μ μ μ μ. μ 12, μ μ μ 2 μ. μ 2,4% μ 2012 4,0% μ 2013. μ μ, μ μ μ μ 2013., μ μ, 3,0%, μ μ.
19 Figure 12 Scenario 2: US Main Sector Balances and Real GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate in Percent 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Government Deficit (right scale) External Balance (right scale) Private Sector Investment minus Saving (right scale) Real GDP Growth (left scale) 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Percent of GDP Sources: BEA; authors calculations Figure 13 Unemployment Rate in Three Scenarios 11 10 Percent of Labor Force 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Baseline (CBO Projections) Scenario 1 (Deficit Reduction) Scenario 2 (Fiscal Stimulus) Sources: BLS; authors calculations μ μ μμ μ μ, μ. μ μμ μ 2016, 6,5%, μμ μ μ μ μ μ μμ μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μμ μ,
20 μ μ μ. μ 12, μ 2 μ μ μ μ, μ μ μμ μ μ, μ -4,6% μ.,, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μμ 2,9% μ 2011 1,9% 2016. μ μμ 6,5% μ μ 6, μ 2005,, μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ 14. μμ μ μμ, μ : 97,4% 2 94,4% μμ 91,1% 1. μ / μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 14 Public Debt under Alternative Assumptions 100 90 Percent of GDP 80 70 60 50 40 2000 2005 Baseline (CBO Projections) Scenario 1 (Deficit Reduction) Scenario 2 (Fiscal Stimulus) 2010 2015 Sources: BEA; authors calculations
21 μ μ μ, μ., μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ. μ μ. μ, 24% μ 1970, μ μ 16%., μ μ ( ) μ μ., μ, μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ. μ 15 μ ( μ, μμ, μ μ, ) μ. μ,,, 2009, μ μ -., μ. μ, μ μ ( μ μ ), μ, μ μ μ μ., μ, μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ,,,. μ, μ 20% μ., μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ Lehman Brothers 2008.. μ μ, μ μ μ.
22 Figure 15 Total Foreign Debt Securities Held By the United States, 2009 Eurozone* ($497.3B) 25.3% Other ($444.1B) 22.7% United Kingdom ($396.6B) 20.3% Australia ($148.6B) 7.6% Canada ($245.2B) 12.5% Cayman Islands ($225.8B) 11.5% * Eurozone France ($105.9B) 5.4% Germany ($96.8B) 4.9% Greece ($1.8B) 0.1% Ireland ($40.8B) 2.1% Italy ($19.2B) 1.0% Luxembourg ($62.8B) 3.2% Netherlands ($124.1B) 6.3% Portugal ($0.9B) 0.0% Spain ($26.0B) 1.3% Other ($19.0B) 1.0% Source: IMF
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