ιεθνείςαγορέςκεφαλαίωνκαι ΟικονοµικήΑνάπτυξη Α. Μπαρτζώκας 25 Μαιου 2009
Μακροχρόνιεςτάσειςολοκλήρωσηςστην παγκόσµιααγοράκεφαλαίων High Gold Standard 1880 1914 1914 2000 1900 Float 1971 2000 1929 1880 Bretton Woods 1945 71 1860 1980 1918 1925 1971 Interwar 1960 1914 45 1945 Low 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Πηγές και χρήστες της παγκόσµιας αποταµίευσης (αποταµίευση επένδυση ως ποσοστό του ΑΕΠ) Eastern Europe and ex Soviet Union Countries
Ισοζύγιατρεχουσώνσυναλλαγών
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Συναλλαγµατικά αποθέµατα ασιατικών χωρών (U.S. $ billion) End-97 End-01 Latest 0 Japan China India NIEs ASEAN4
Οι 15 µεγαλύτεροι κάτοχοι συναλλαγµατικών αποθεµάτων
Εισροές κεφαλαίων στις ώριµες αναπτυσσόµενες αγορές Source: Prasad, et.al. (2003), Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, IMF.
Εισροές κεφαλαίων στις λιγότερο αναπτυγµένες αγορές Source: Prasad, et.al. (2003), Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, IMF.
Τοµέγεθοςτωναγορώνοµολόγωνστις αναπτυσσόµενεςχώρες
Εκροές και εισροές ΑΞΕ στην παγκόσµια οικονοµία Outward FDI stock as % of GDP Inward FDI stock as % of GDP 30 30 25 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 World Developed Developing 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 World Developed Developing Source: World Investment Report, 2004 & 2006, UNCTAD.
1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 1992-1997 1998 1999 FDI inflows ($s million) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 World Developed Developing In 1990 developing countries received 17% of FDI inflows, by 1997 they received 37%, but this then dipped heavily around 2000 (18%), and then rose again to 36% in 2005 FDI outflows ($ million) 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 World Developed Developing Developing country FDI outflows were only 7% of the total in 1998, and rose to 15% by 2005. 1992-1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: World Investment Report, 2004 2006, UNCTAD.
Η συγκέντρωση των εισερχόµενων ΑΞΕ σε δέκα αναπτυσσόµενες χώρες
Η µείωση του επενδυτικού κινδύνου στις αναδυόµενες αγορές
Αγορέςκεφαλαίωνκαικαινοτόµοιεπιχειρηµατίες: Amazon.com (1994-1999) Time Line 1994 - July to Nov 1995 - Febr to July 1995 - Aug to Dec 1995/6 - Dec to May 1996 - May 1996 - June 1997 - May 1997/8 - Dec to May Price/ Share $.001 $.1717 $.1287-.3333 $.3333 $.3333 $2.3417 $18 $52.11 Sources of Funds Founder: Jeff Bezos starts Amazon. Com with $10,000, borrows $44,000. Family: Founder s father and mother invest $245,500. Business Angels: 2 angels invest $54,408. Business Angels: 20 angels invest $937,000 Family: Founder s siblings invest $20,000. Venture Capitalists: 2 venture capital funds invest $8 million. IPO: 3 million shares issued raising $49.1 million Bond issue: $326 million bond issue. Source: Smith and Kiholm (2000)
ΣΧΟΛΙΑΓΙΑΑΞΕ
Explaining FDI 2 questions arise: 1) If a firm is wishing to expand it could increase domestic production and export to foreign markets expand into a different product at home engage in portfolio investment licence another firm to produce abroad 2) if a given firm chooses to engage in FDI, that raises the question of why production is not taking place in that market by domestic firms. Dunning s (eclectic) OLI framework: FDI can be explained by the interaction of three types of advantages ownership locational internalisation
Dunning s OLI framework Ownership advantages: the firm may own an advantage over it s rivals: technology (better products, management techniques, marketing skills) industrial organisation & size: may be better equipped for innovation, to fight price wars, cope with legal problems, take advantage of economies of scale access to markets: e.g. due to historical circumstance, political leverage Finance: ability to raise money more easily (reputation, less variability of profits can be seen as a form of geographical diversification note that the presence of ownership advantages suggests some form of market failure imperfect competition
Locational advantages: reflect importance of comparative advantage (anything that makes it relatively cheaper for the firm to produce in a given country transport costs unexploited economies of scale factor endowments tax concessions, tariff rates, quantitative restrictions even given O & L why does the MNC itself carry out the investment?
Internalisation advantages: reasons why it is more efficient / less costly for the firm to be directly engaged in the production and to make direct own use of its ownership advantages: costs of negotiation expensive contracting procedures issue of proving the profitability of the venture brand image not wishing competitors to catch up underutilised (managerial) economies of scale transfer pricing
ΕΠΕΝ ΥΣΕΙΣΚΑΙ ΤΕΧΝΟΛΟΓΙΚΗΑΝΑΠΤΥΞΗ
INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Cost of new investment Adjustment costs (complementary investment and learning) Working capital Financial Resources: Constraint markets Investment Capabilities: Knowledge gaps Information asymmetries Financial Structure Corporate finance Incentives structure Technological Capabilities Corporate strategy Sectoral characteristics Capital Structure Industrial Organisation Corporate Performance
ΑΓΟΡΕΣΚΕΦΑΛΑΙΩΝΚΑΙ ΠΑΡΑΓΩΓΙΚΟΣΥΣΤΗΜΑ
ΣΥΓΚΡΙΤΙΚΑ ΣΤΟΙΧΕΙΑ ΑΝΑΠΤΥΣΣΟΜΕΝΩΝ ΧΩΡΩΝ