E21, E42, E63 1. Email: Khalili@u.ac.ir 2. Email: yazdan.gudarzi@u.ac.ir
Mishkin, 28; igliz, 29; Krugman, 28 1. Lucas mispercepion 2. Moren Ravn and Marin ola 25
. 1. Moneariss 2. Expeced Money
. P i s > M. Ravn & M. ola, 25 P p P Y i U i GY, - sd i D i Y M P M. Ravn and M. ola, 25 1. all and Romer 2. all and Mankiw 3. Menu Cos
M P P p i U i G, - sd i s NA U GM,1 P * U CP G M, i s P M. Ravn and M. ola, 25 * NA CP P U - U > G M, i GM,1 < P M 1
1. Firs order coss 2. econd order coss 3. Ridhwan and e al 4. Mea-Analysis. 5. Edilean Kleber da ilva and Marcelo avino
. &P 1. Tan iow Hooi1 and e al 2. hiu-heng Chen 3. Moren Ravn and Marin ola 4. Parker & Rohman
M 1 1. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih
M. Ravn and M. ola, 25 1. Jonsson 2. ecker 3. Lucas 4. arro 5. oschen and Grossman 6. Mishkin
m ϕ l Θ ε m -1 x 1 y z ε ε ξ m Θ ϕl x 1 ψ y z y γ µ s ϕ y 1-1 s u γ s u p γ s u... p... 1 1 1 1 ε ε - µ s -1... ϕ y p γ -p s p - µ u s -p p ε y γ si γ si u 1 u i µ s ε max, ε, ε min, ε
M. Ravn and M. ola, 25 y ψ z e e 1 ξ e 1. Fischer and aer 2. Long-run neuraliy 3. Long-run uperneuraliy
s,1 m ' 1 µ s 1 Θx 1 σ s η µ s ϕ l m ϕl ' x 1 Θ s µ s x µ x η s -1 M.Ravn and M. ola, 25 s * E 1 m µ ϕ m 1 µ µπ 1 Θx 1 1 * E 1 m µ µ ϕ m 1 µ µπ 11 Θx 1 * π 1 π 11 π ij ε ε s P s i s 1 j, i, j,1 m µ ϕ 2 m σ 1 µ µπ 1 Θx 1 m µ µ ϕ ~ N, 2 1 m σ 1 1 µ µπ 11 Θx 1 ~ N,
I i s P i ] [ 1 1 1 s I s P x m m e Θ µπ µ ϕ µ 1 ] [ 1 11 1 I s P x m m e Θ µπ µ ϕ µ },,, { e e e e e e e e e e e e e z y ξ ψ s s H :
H : M2 1. Hodrick and Presco
1. Wavele 2. Fourier analysis 3. Heisenberg's curse
ψ ϕ s2 2 2 2 2 2 2 k k j j ij j j ij ψ ψ ϕ ϕ µ µ 1 µ ψ ψ 1 2, j j µ ψ ψ µ 1 µ ψ ψ M f d a b f a 1 b. fa W d 2 f 2, f W 2 2 k k j j j y 1. Muli Resoluion Decomposiion
k k k k k j k j k k j k j k k j k j d d d y... 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, ψ ψ ψ ϕ j,, k j k ψ j ϕ
m e M l Y M M ~ 1
~ Y ly l M ˆ ~ Y l M 1 ~ e M M Y l M 1 1 y ψ z e e 1 ξ EVIEW.7 MATLA HP 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 135 1355 136 1365 137 1375 138 1385 MONEYG HPM HP
3 2 1-1 -2 135 1355 136 1365 137 1375 138 1385 GAP 2 R F ADF P M2GDP G OR 1. Augmened Dickey Fuller ADF Tes 2. Perron 3. Inegraed
PP ADF ln GDP Ln M2 Ln P Ln OR Ln G DM2DGDP DM1 DP PP ADF DGDP DM2 DM1 DP
λ max Trace r r r r r r r r r r r r
λ max Trace Dm Dy 1 r r r r Dm Dy 2 r r r r H
LR P value LR LR 1. likelihood raio
M1 Ln e e e e P ln - - - G ln 1 ln G ln OR 1 ln OR ECM 1 - - - - - - - σ Y Q1 Q1 Log likelihood LR es
ECM 1 ICAIC
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