ΠΑΡΟΝ ΚΑΙ ΜΕΛΛΟΝ ΚΛΙΜΑ" Χρήστος Ζερεφός, Ακαδημαϊκός Πρόεδρος της Διεθνούς Επιτροπής Όζοντος

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1 ΠΑΡΟΝ ΚΑΙ ΜΕΛΛΟΝ ΚΛΙΜΑ" Χρήστος Ζερεφός, Ακαδημαϊκός Πρόεδρος της Διεθνούς Επιτροπής Όζοντος

2 «ΟΥΚ ΑΙΕΙ Δ ΟΙ ΑΥΤΟΙ ΤΟΠΟΙ ΤΗΣ ΓΗΣ ΕΝΥΓΡΟΙ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΟΥΤΕ ΞΗΡΟΙ ΑΛΛΑ ΜΕΤΑΒΑΛΛΟΥΣΙΝ ΚΑΤΑ ΜΕΝΤΟΙ ΤΙΝΑ ΤΑΞΙΝ ΝΟΜΙΖΕΙΝ ΧΡΗ ΤΑΥΤΑ ΓΙΓΝΕΣΘΑΙ ΚΑΙ ΠΕΡΙΟΔΟΝ» ΑΡΙΣΤΟΤΕΛΟΥΣ ΜΕΤΕΩΡΟΛΟΓΙΚΑ Βιβλίον Ι Κεφ 14 Από τη «Σχολή των Αθηνών» του Ραφαήλ, ο Πλάτων και ο Αριστοτέλης

3 Χωρίς θερμοκηπικά αέρια η μέση θερμοκρασία της Γης θα ήταν περίπου -19 ο C, ενώ σήμερα είναι ο C ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

4 ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

5 CO εγκλωβισμένο στους Παγετώνες 1 μ.χ. 1 μ.χ. CO (ppm) 185 μ.χ. Έτη ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

6 Κυκλικές μεταβολές Χιλιάδες Έτη πριν από σήμερα (1) ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

7 Η ενδεκαετής ηλιακή δραστηριότητα από το 16 εως το ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

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9 IPCC, 13, Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 Main drivers of climate change. The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is influenced by global climate drivers. Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR). Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts. O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance. Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud droplets and possibly affecting precipitation. Because cloud interactions with SWR and LWR are large, small changes in the properties of clouds have important implications for the radiative budget. Anthropogenic changes in GHGs (e.g., CO, CH4, NO, O3, CFCs) and large aerosols (>.5 μm in size) modify the amount of outgoing LWR by

10 Figure.4 Global annual average lower stratospheric (top) and lower tropospheric (bottom) temperature anomalies relative to a climatology from different data sets. STAR does not produce a lower tropospheric temperature product. Note that the y-axis resolution differs between the two panels. IPCC, 13, Chapter

11 Figure 1: Layer mean temperature variations in northern hemisphere summer (JJA) at layers 95-5 hpa, 5-3 hpa, 1-5 hpa and 5-3 hpa calculated from NCEP reanalysis and FU- Berlin datasets and filtered from natural variations for three latitudinal belts a) 5N-3N, b) 3N - 6N and c) 6N - 9N hpa 5 hpa 1-5 hpa 1 hpa tropopause ( a ) 5N - 3N hpa 5 hpa 1-5 hpa 1 hpa tropopause (b) 3N - 6N - - The respective summer normalised time series of temperature from RICH dataset at levels 85 hpa, 5 hpa, 5 hpa and 3 hpa are also illustrated as well as the NCEP tropopause pressure hpa 1 5 hpa hpa 85 hpa hpa 5 hpa hpa 85 hpa The trends lines before and after 1979 are superimposed. Grey lines denote NCEP reanalysis variations. Green lines denote variations as depicted in the FU- Berlin analysis, while purple dotted lines the RICH data temperature. The units at vertical axis are in degrees o C except for the tropopause that is in hpa hpa 5 hpa 1-5 hpa 1 hpa tropopause ( c ) 6N - 9N - - Zerefos et al., hpa - 5 hpa 95-5 hpa 85 hpa -

12 Ψυχρές νύχτες Ψυχρές μέρες Θερμές νύχτες Θερμές μέρες IPCC, 7

13 Μέση βροχόπτωση το χειμώνα στη Μεσόγειο από ιστορικές και άλλες πηγές από το 15 έως το. (Luterbacher et al., 6)

14 IPCC, 7

15 Λίμνη Αράλη 1973 Λίμνη Αράλη 4 Η λίμνη Αράλη συρρικνώθηκε κατά 75% από το Η λίμνη Τσαντ στην Αφρική συρρικνώθηκε κατά 95% από το Η στάθμη της Νεκράς θάλασσας μειώθηκε κατά 5μ τα τελευταία 5 χρόνια. Η ακτογραμμή στο Μπαγκλαντές πρέπει να επανασχεδιαστεί λόγω απωλειών στη θάλασσα. Η παγωμένη επιφάνεια στο όρος Κιλιμάντζαρο στην Αφρική έχει μειωθεί περισσότερο από 8% Δορυφορικές εικόνες της ξήρανσης της λίμνης Αράλης στην Κεντρική Ασία, με διαφορά 3 ετών ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

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17 Ενδείξεις αλλαγής της στάθμης της θάλασσας τα τελευταία χιλιάδες χρόνια στη Μεσόγειο -8.5 m -.5 m -.5 m M. Anzidei -1 m -6 m m 1- mm/yr ~ ka Cosquer (France) ~8-6 ka Wells (Israel) Grotta Verde (Sardinia) ~3.5ka Bronze age Sites (Israel) χρόνος ~.5ka Greek age Sites (Med) ~ka Roman age Sites (Med) ~.5ka Bizanthyne Sites (Med) Ανθρωπόκαινος EGU 8 - Vienna

18 SW Turkey seismic region Cleopatra s bath Twelve islands r.s.l.c.> 3m in 1.6 ka Kekova The Lycian tombs r.s.l.c.> 4m in.5 ka

19 Λεπτομέρεια από παράσταση στην αψίδα του Γαλερίου όπως φωτογραφήθηκε προπολεμικά από το Γερμανικό Αρχαιολογικό Ινστιτούτο (αριστερά) και όπως φωτογραφήθηκε σήμερα από το συγγραφέα (δεξιά). Ζερεφός, 1984

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21 Mean Air Temperature SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 1-5 and , SRES A1B : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 o C. 71-1: Over Greece Temperature increase by Mean annual air.8 o C (SRES B) up to 3.9 o C (SRES A) Temperature increase is more significant during summer and autumn than during winter and spring. Temperature increase is more prominent over land. SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 71-1 and Temperature Change ( o C) 5 4,5 4 3,5 3,5 1,5 1,5 Mean Air Temperature Change between 71-1 and West-Central Eastern Macedonia/Thrace West Greece Central-Eastern Greece Attica West Peloponnese Eastern Peloponnese Ionian North Aegean East Aegean Cyclades Dodekannese Crete Greece SRES B SRES A1B SRES A

22 Precipitation SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 1-5 and , SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5%. 71-1: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% (SRES B) and by 18% (SRES A1B, SRES A) SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 71-1 and Precipitation Percentage Change (%) West-Central Macedonia Eastern Macedonia/Thrace Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 71-1 and West Peloponnese West Greece Central-Eastern Greece Attica North Aegean Eastern Peloponnese Ionian East Aegean Cyclades Dodekannese Crete Greece SRES B SRES A1B SRES A

23 Relative Humidity SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 1-5 and SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 71-1 and , SRES A1B: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease by %. 71-1: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease for.5% up to 4% (SRES B) and for 6% up to 1% (SRES A) Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to be more significant for summer season. Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 71-1 and Relative Humidity Percentage Change(%) SRES B SRES A1B SRES A -1 West-Central Eastern Macedonia/Thrace West Greece Central-Eastern Greece Attica West Peloponnese Eastern Peloponnese Ionian North Aegean East Aegean Cyclades Dodekannese Crete Greece

24 SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 1-5 and Wind Speed For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind Speed will be not change during 1 th century 71-1: Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5% over Ionian During summer Etesian Winds will be increase significantly up to 1% SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 71-1 and Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 71-1 and Mean annual Wind Spped Percentage Change (%) West-Central Macedonia Eastern Macedonia/Thrace West Greece Central-Eastern Greece Attica West Peloponnese Eastern Peloponnese Ionian North Aegean East Aegean Cyclades Dodekannese Crete Greece SRES B SRES A1B SRES A

25 Cloud Fractional Cover SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 1-5 and , SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6% 71-1: Mean annual Cloud predicted to be reduced by 8% (SRES B) by 1% (SRES A1B) by 14% (SRES A) fractional Cover is SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 71-1 and Cloud Fractional Cover Percentage Change(%) Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 71-1 and West-Central Macedonia Eastern Macedonia/Thrace West Greece Central-Eastern Greece Attica West Peloponnese Eastern Peloponnese Ionian North Aegean East Aegean Cyclades Dodekannese Crete Greece SRES B SRES A1B SRES A

26 Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation Change between 1-5 and SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation Change between 71-1 and , SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m. 71-1: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 3,1 W/m (SRES B) by 4,1 W/m (SRES A) The increase is more prominent over land, especially in western and northern parts Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change (W/m Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation Change between 71-1 and West-Central Eastern Macedonia/Thrace West Greece Central-Eastern Greece Attica West Peloponnese Eastern Peloponnese Ionian North Aegean East Aegean Cyclades Dodekannese Crete Greece SRES B SRES A1B SRES A

27 Changes in Costal Areas because of Sea Level Rise Coastal Areas with a) Moderate Vulnerability (green) b) High Vulnerability (red) Coastline Retreat (m.) Coastline Retreat Sea level rise equal to.5 m Sea level rise equal to 1 m 1 3 Alfios Delta (northern part) Alfios Delta (southern part) Axios Delta Aliakmonas Delta Under Flooding Area Aliakmonas- Loudias Delta plain Under flooding area (km ) Sea level rise equal to.5 m Sea level rise equal to 1 m Alfios Delta (northern part) Alfios Delta (southern part) Axios Delta Aliakmonas Delta Aliakmonas- Loudias Delta plain

28 Conclusions for Greece 1-5, SRES A1B : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 o C. 71-1: Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase for.8 o C (SRES B) up to 3.9 o C (SRES A) Temperature increase is more significant during summer and autumn than during winter and spring. Temperature increase is more prominent over land. 1-5, SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5%. 71-1: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% under SRES B and by 18% under SRES A1B and SRES A 1-5, SRES A1B: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease by %. 71-1: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease for.5% up to 4% under SRES B and for 6% up to 1% under SRES A Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to be more significant for summer season.

29 Conclusions for Greece For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind Speed will be not change during 1 th century 71-1: Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5% over Ionian During summer Etesian Winds will be increase significantly up to 1% 1-5, SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6% 71-1: Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 8% under SRES B, by 1% under SRES A1B and by 14% under SRES A 1-5, SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m. 71-1: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 3,1 W/m under SRES B and by 4,1 W/m under SRES A The increase is more prominent over land, especially in western and northern parts Transportation Cost for the infrastructure maintenance 594,8m/year to 195m/year depending on the GHG emissions Cost of delays in service due to climate change (extreme events, overheating of infrastructure etc.): 8bn to 9.3bn

30 Ανωμαλία στη θερμοκρασία (ºC) Έτος Οι πολύ υψηλές θερμοκρασίες στην Ευρώπη το θέρος του 3 θα αποτελούν τον κανόνα μέχρι το 4 και θα θεωρούνται χαμηλές μετά το 6! ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ 8 - ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ