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Βλάσις Σπηλιωτόπουλος
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1 - / / / ( ) // : // :.,...,,.,,..,. m-razavi@cc.sbu.ac.ir r-moshrefi@cc.sbu.ac.ir

2 ., /. /,,,,, :. /..

3 /...,. / /,..,.,. / -. -.,,.....

4 ,.... -, Rate Deaton l. Michael, James J. Winebrake (1999) P In flow. 3. Out flow.

5 /,..,,...-. : (. (.. (...-. ( ",(). 1. Formal Models. 2. Empirical Analysis. 3. Subsistence Sector.. ().

6 ",() ". "- (.... " ".," ". " ".. ". " (,.., Forrester Jay, W. & Wright-Allen (1971).

7 / ".,. MIT ". ". ",. -,...,,. ()..,.. 1. Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi (1987)...

8 ,,..,.,...-,. (). : (Population) (Education) (Production) (Consumption) (Investment) (Government) (Money & Inflation) (Foreign Trade) (Oil ) (Labor Supply) (Labor Demand) (Okun s Law). /..

9 /...- INVESTMENT CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT LABOR DEMAND CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT PRODUCTION LABOR DEMAND MONEY & INFLATION PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MONEY & INFLATION LABOUR SUPPLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOREIGN TRADE FOREIGN TRADE OIL OIL LABOUR SUPPLY POPULATION POPULATION EDUCATION EDUCATION. ( ).,

10 ..,( ) ( ).. ( ),.,... (),..,..,..,,..,(Cohort Model)..,(Conveyor).,

11 /. - POPULATION Graph 1 Table 1 birth m men pop death m mg fraction E total pop birth + total pop OBS total pop f g f raction birth f women pop death f.- POPULATION Graph 1 Table 1 birth m men pop death m mg f raction E total pop birth + total pop OBS total pop + total birth asf r asf r asf r asf r asf r asf r asf r asf r asf r b b b b b b b b b f g f raction birth f women pop death f

12 .- population men pop birth m death m Table 1 Graph 1 And... mp mg 0 4f raction mp 5 9 mp mp up65 birth m' aging1 m aging2 m aging12 m aging13 m death m'''''''''''''' death m' death m'' death m''''''''''''' dr1 m dr2 m ' + dr13 m dr14 m total pop fg fraction women pop birth f death f Men pop Women pop My fraction Fg fraction Mp xy Fp xy Total birth Birth m Birth f Death m Death f Dr m Dr f Aging Asfrxy Bxy y X y X y X y X. *

13 /. EDUCATION e m1014 e m1519 e m2024 e m2529 e m3034 e m35up e m c1014 e m c1519 e m c2024 e m c2529 e m c3034 e m c35up mp mp mp mp mp mp mp mp mp mp mp mp up65 mp 35up g m c1519 g m c2024 g m c25 29 g m c3034 g m c3539 g m c4044 g m c4549 g m c5054 g m c5559 g m c6064 g m c65up g m1519 g m2024 g m2529 g m3034 g m3539 g m4044 g m4549 g m5054 g m5559 g m6064 g m65up e f 1014 e f 1519 e f 2024 e f 2529 e f 3034 e f 35up e f c1014 e f c1519 e f c2024 e f c2529 e f c3034 f p f p f p f p fp g f 1519 g f 2024 g f 2529 g f 3034 e f c35up + wp 35upw f p f p f p f p f p f p f p up65 g f 3539 g f 4044 g f 4549 g f 5054 g f 5559 g f 6064 g f 65up g f c1519 g f c2024 g f c25 30 g f c3034 g f c3539 g f c4044 g f c4549 g f c5054 g f c5559 g f c6064 g f c65up em xy ef xy emc xy efc xy gm xy gf xy gmc xy gfc xy y X y x y x y y x y x y x y x y x

14 .- PRODUCTION L IN V IN K IN E V IN OBS VIN + CAPITAL I IN D IN D IN R LS Graph 3 Table 3 L AG V AG E V AG OBS V AG P CGDPF K AG P CGDPF G I AG D AG CGDPF D AG R CTIN L SE K SE V SE OBS V SE CGDPF G G DIFFERENCE I SE D SE E V SE D SE R NET IN TAX L OI I OI K OI D OI V OI E V OI OBS V OI CGDPM D OI R E PRODUCTION OBS CGDPM I IN I AG I SE I OI K IN K AG A SE K OI D IN D AG D SE D OI D IN R D AG R D SE R D OI R V IN V AG V SE V OI CGDPF

15 / CGDPM CGDPF G P CGDPF P CGDPF G G DIFFERENCE CAPITAL, ().,.. (). ()..., ().,.. ()..,...

16 .- CONSUMPTION TCUREX LnTCUREX\CPI OBS LnCGC LnCGC CPI LnCGC D lag2'' drain2'' E LnCGC CPI LnMS Table 9 TAXREVENUE + LnCPC\POP total pop CGDPM lag2' LnCPC\POP D drain2' E LnCPC\POP OBS LnCPC\POP Ln CGC DELTA LnCGC LnCPC\POP LnCPC\POP D LNCPC\POP

17 /.- INVESTMENT CGDPM E LnCINP OBS LnCINP LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD LnCINP LnINTIM$\CPIOECD Graph 4 CTIN E CTIN OBS CTIN LnCING TGDEXPN CPI Table 6 lag4' LnCING D drain4' E LnCING OBS LnCING CTIN LnCTIN CINP LnCING LnCING D CTIN LnCING

18 . - GOVERNMENT CGDPM OBS TCUREX OILX$ OBS OTHREVENUE OIL TRANS FACTOR OTHREVENUE E OTHREVENUE P TCUREX E TCUREX CGDPM OILREVENUE OBS TGDEXPN OBS OILREVENUE OTHREVENUE D P E OILREVENUE OBS TAXREVENUE lag3' TCUREX D drain3' E TGDEXPN TGDEXPN lag3'''' drain3'''' TAXREVENUE TOTREVENUE E TAXREVENUE SPEPAY lag3''' TGDEXPN D drain3''' E TOTREVENUE lag3'' TAXREVENUE D drain3'' OBS TOTREVENUE TOTEXPN OBS TOTEXPN E TOTEXPN BD Table 13 TCUREX TCUREX D TGDEXPN TGDEXPN D SPEPAY TOTEXPN TAXREVENUE OILREVENUE OTHREVENUE OIL TRANS FACTOR TOTREVENUE BD TCUREX TGDEXPN

19 /.- MONEY & INFLATION OBS CPI CPI Graph 11 Table 7 P OBS LnV LnMS E CPI LnP LnCPI LnMS growth PGROWTH LnV DELTA LnMS DELTA LnV E LnV OBS MB E MB E NGOVDEBT OTHERMB DELTA LnCPI OBS NGOVDEBT MB CGDPM LnV D NGOVDEBT lag7' drain7' NGGROWTH NFA OER LnPM DELTA NGOVDEBT IM$ CPIOECD SBD BD lag7''' NFA D drain7''' TX$ lag7'' LnPM D drain7'' OBS NFA E NFA E LnPM OBS LnPM Ln MS Delta LnMS MB OTHERMB NGOVDEBT DELTA NGOVDEBT SBD CPI P Ln V VD OER Ln PM Ln PMD NEA DELTA NFA () LnMS NGOVDEBT ( ) ) V Ln PMD NFA

20 , ().,..., (),..,,,.,( ) ().. ( ).. ( ),.. () ,..

21 /. - OIL OBS LnDC\POP E LnDC\POP OBS OILX$ POIL CGDPM + LnDC\POP total pop OILX$ E OILX$ DC P5 LnDC\POP D Table 4 RES lag6' drain6' EXPLORATION CRUD LnCRUD LnCRUD D K OI lag6'' drain6'' OILX$ POIL DC Ln DC\POP Ln CRUD RES P5.- FOREIGN TRADE TX$ OILX$ TB$ IM$ Graph 5 Table 11 LnCPC\POP CPIOECD LnCONIM$\CPIOECD OBS LnCONIM$\CPIOECD E LnCONIM$\CPIOECD LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD OBS LnINTIM$\CPIOECD TX$ CPIOECD E LnINTIM$\CPIOECD LnCONIM$\CPIOECD D TX$ LnINTIM$\CPIOECD ER CPIOECD\CPI lag5''''' drain5''''' CPIOECD CGDPM LnINTIM$\CPIOECD D ER CPIOECD\CPI lag5''' LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD drain5''' CPI LnNOX$\CPIOECD LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD D GDPOECD LnER LnBMER LnNOX$\CPIOECD D lag5' drain5' LnER D lag5'''' drain5'''' OER OBS LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD E LnCAPIM$\CPIOECD lag5'' drain5'' E LnNOX$\CPIOECD OBS LnNOX$\CPIOECD

22 TB$ TX$ IM$ CPIOECD GDPOECD INTIM$ CAPIM$ CONIM$ NOX$ OER BMER ERCPIOECD\CPI ER OECD OECD. - LABOUR SUPPLY fp f p LSF10 14 FF1014 FF1519 e f 1014 e f 1519 e m1014 e m1519 MM1014 MM1519 LSM10 14 mp mp f p LSF15 19 FF2024 MM2024 LSM15 19 mp f p LSF20 24 FF2529 MM2554 LSM f p LSF25 29 FF3034 Table 2 MM5564 LSM25 54 mp f p LSF3034 FF3539 MM65UP LSM55 64 PM mp up65 f p LSF3539 FF4044 LSM65UP + + LSF4044 FF4554 LSF f p LSF4554 FF LS FP LSF5564 FF65UP LSM fp up65 LSF65UP

23 /.- LABOR DEMAND V AG' V IN' V AG V IN lag9' drain9' CPI lag9'''''' drain9'''''' L AG E L AG E L IN L IN K AG K IN L AG D OBS L AG OBS L IN L IN D Table 12 CPI lag9'' drain9'' lag9''''' drain9''''' W IN V OI V OI' LD V SE V SE' lag9''' drain9''' Graph 9 lag9'''''''' drain9'''''''' L OI E L OI E L SE L SE K SE K OI L OI D OBS L OI OBS L SE L SE D CPI lag9'''' drain9'''' lag9''''''''' drain9''''''''' L AG L IN L SE L OI APK AG APK OI W IN

24 ..-,.,..... ).,(., , ,....,.

25 /.. :. (OIL TRANS FACTOR) (CPIOECD)OECD (RES) (POIL) (GDPOECD)OECD (OTHERMB) (EXPLORATION) (Mg (OER) (SBD) (dr xy f, dr xy m) Fraction) (asfr xy) (efc xy, emc xy)..- (... / / ( ),.(() ()) -. ()....

26 ,.. ().. ) /),( ),( / / /,(.(())..,,..

27 / ( ).-.,., () ()...,. / /, / /,..

28 ,..(() ) / (., ). ((),(L/K) (APK)... ( ).

29 /,..,,..,. (). () ),. / /.,. /,., ( : ).

30 (). /. /, (). (),...-.-

31 /.-... ( ),,. - / - /,.,,..

32 ...,..,. ()..- (r) 0/999 0/973 0/88 0/997 0/947 0/974 0/987.. : 1. Sterman, D. John (2000).

33 / H 0 : μ = μ S H1: μ μ S A A A: Actual S: Simulated 2 2 S σ A. σ =. t-student, t = ( X S P S X I n S A ) n A S P = ( n A 2 1) S A + ( ns 1) S n + n S + S n A n 2 -t ().. t.- ) ( ( ) ( ) ) ( () μ A μ S S A S S -t. / % / %

34 -t -t,.,.,,...,...,.. /.. ()...-

35 /,. : DELTAU= -1/128 *DELTAG (-10/8) R 2 =0/92 DW=2/28 DELTAU DELTAG,,. () /,. /. /, ( ) / ( ). / /.. /, -. / - /.. / /

36 ,. /,..,...,( ) / /,. /.. / /.,. / "). "- ( /.,. /

37 /...()..()....().,,. :.()...()..-..() ().,..().,. Deaton l. Michael, James J. (1999). Winebrake, Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems. Springer, P. 28. Forrester, Jay W. (1971). World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press Inc. Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi. (1987). Startegy of Economic Development In IRAN: A Case of Develompent Based on Exhaustible Resources, Massachasetts Institute of Technology. Sterman, D. John, (2000). Business Dynamics: System Thinking For a Complex World. Mc. Graw Hill- Higher Education.

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