DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL / WORKING PAPERS

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DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL / WORKING PAPERS 2017-66 How shifting investment towards low-carbon sectors impacts employment: three determinants under scrutiny Quentin Perrier 1, *, Philippe Quirion 1,2

1 DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL / WORKING PAPERS How shifting investment towards low-carbon sectors impacts employment: three determinants under scrutiny Quentin Perrier 1, *, Philippe Quirion 1,2 September CIRED, 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, France 2 CNRS * Corresponding author. Tel.: addresses: perrier@centre-cired.fr (Quentin Perrier), quirion@centre-cired.fr (Philippe Quirion)

8 d p p d = Z d i + d d m = Z m i + d m p d Z d Z m d d d m m i d t = d d + d m Z t = Z d + Z m p d =(I A d ) 1 d d I A =(a ij ) Z = A p τ m =1 dd d d d t x ˆxˆxˆx x ii = x i x ij =0 i j p d =(I A d ) 1 (I τ m τ m ) d t

9 ẽẽẽ = fte/p fte ẽẽẽ FTE FTE = t ẽẽẽ (I A d ) 1 (I τ m τ m ) d d t t ẽẽẽ ẽ va p Z va j = p j i Z i,j =(1 i a i,j ) p j va =(I i t A d ) p t ẽẽẽ t e (I i t A d ) e FTE = t e Q d (I τ τ m ) d d t Q d =(I i t A d ) (I A d ) 1 Q d Q d Q d Q d e

10 Z 11 Z 12 D 1 P 1 Z 21 Z 22 D 2 P 2 K 1 K 2 L 1 L 2 P 1 P 2 ( ) e1 e = e 2 ( ) 1 θ1 θ Q = 2 θ 1 1 θ 2 ( I τ m τ 1 τ m m = τ2 m θ 1 θ 2 (1 τ m 2 ) [(1 θ 2 )e 2 + θ 2 e 1 ] > (1 τ m 1 ) [(1 θ 1 )e 1 + θ 1 e 2 ] ce d ) i, ce d i = i e i Q d ij Q d ij i Qd ij =1 τ m i ce d i Q d

11 θ i (1 τ m 2 ) e 2 > (1 τ m 1 ) e 1 τ e e ρ e e i = FTE i /V A i τ L w L i

12 e = FTE i VA i = FTE i L i = τ i L L i VA i w i

13 Current Acccount (billion euros) France Germany Year (1 τ m 2 ) τ L 2 w 2 > (1 τ m 1 ) τ L 1 w 1

16 Z j = scz j ( h δ h,j F ρz h,j )1/ρz Z j =min h ( F h,j ) a h,j ) F h,j =(scz ρz j δ h,j p z j /p f h )σz Z j F h,j = a h,j Z j Inc = h pf h FF h C i = α i p c (Inc S p ) C i = C i i U =1 FF LAB/P op p f Lab =1 log( pf LAB pc )= γ log( U U 0 ) p f Lab =1 FF CAP = FF CAP p f Cap =1 I i = I i idem S p = i pc i I i idem Z i = C i + I i idem FF h = j F h,j idem p c i = p z i idem p c = i (pc i ) α i idem idem p z j = h pf h az h,j Z j = b j h F β h,j h,j F h,j = a z h,j Z j F h,j = β h,j p z j Z j/p f h γ =0 γ =0.05

17 γ =0 γ σ KL =0 σ KL =0.5 σ KL =1 γ =0

21 S f ϵ ϵ ϵ S f ϵ S f

22 Z j = scz j ( h δ h,jf ρz h,j )1/ρz Z j = min h ( F h,j ) a h,j ) F h,j =(scz ρz j δ h,j p z j /p f h )σz Z j F h,j = a h,j Z j Inc = h pf h FF h idem C i = αu p x (Inc S p ) C i = C i i U =1 FF LAB/P op p f Lab =1 log( pf LAB )= γlog(u/u 0 ) pc p Lab =1 FF CAP = FF CAP p f CAP =1 I = I idem S p = i px i I i ϵ S f idem S f = S f ϵ = ϵ ϵ = ϵ Q i = C i + I i idem FF h = j F h,j idem p x i = p z i idem p c = i (px i ) αu i idem p e i = ϵ p We i E i = E i p m i = ϵ p Wm idem i pwe i Q i = scq i(αi m M ρ Q i ( M i = scq ρ Q i αi m pq i p m i ( D i = scq ρ Q i αi d pq i p d i i E i + S f = i pwm i M i idem + αi d Q D ρ i ) 1/ρ Q p Q i Qi + pe i E i ) σq Q i M i = λ m = p m i M i + p d i D i i (Q i + E i) ) σq Q i Z i = λ z i (Q i + E i) Z i = E i + D i idem p e i = p z i idem p d i = p z i idem

23 S f ϵ

27 e σ KL γ

28 γ σ KL =1 σ KL =0.5 σ KL =0

29 S f ϵ

34 A d A d = ( Z11 P 1 Z21 P 1 Z12 P 2 Z22 P 2 ) ( ) a b = c d ( ) I A d 1 d b = c 1 a =det(i A d ) Q =(I A d ) 1 ( ) 1 d b Q = 1 c 1 a (va) i =(VA i /P i) ( ) va1 0 <va> Q = Q = 1 ( ) va1 (1 d) va 1 b 0 va 2 va 2 c va 2 (1 a) <va> Q = 1 ( ) (1 a c) (1 d) (1 a c) b (1 b d) c (1 b d) (1 a) ( ) 1 θ1 θ <va> Q = 2 θ 1 1 θ 2 θ 1 = (1 b d) c (1 a)(1 d) bc θ 2 = (1 a c) b (1 a)(1 d) bc δ (1 θ 1 ) δ θ 1 δ e (e i )=(E i /V A i ) E i VA i ce d (ce d ) t = e t <va> Q = ( e 1 (1 θ 1 )+e 2 θ 1 ; e 1 θ 2 + e 2 (1 θ 2 ) ) δ

35 ( ) ( ) d d δ (1 τ1 ) =< < 1 τ m > = δ δ 1 τ 2 (1 τ 2 ) ((1 θ 2 )e 2 + θ 2 e 1 ) (1 τ 1 ) ((1 θ 1 )e 1 + θ 1 e 2 ) (1 τ 2 ) ((1 θ 2 )e 2 + θ 2 e 1 ) > (1 τ 1 ) ((1 θ 1 )e 1 + θ 1 e 2 ) (1 τ 2 ) ce d 2 > (1 τ 1 ) ce d 1

36 Income Utility Aggregate private consumption UU Savings Domestic good equilibrium! "#! "$ % "$ Private consumption Investment & "# Domestic output Domestic production function ' ()*,"$ ',)-,"$ Labor factor Capital factor u i(u) j(u) h(u) Z j F h,j FF h Inc C i p x i p z i p f h pc

37 S p U UU α i σ z ρ z = σz 1 σ z δ h,j scz j β h,j b j a h,j γ U 0

38 Income Utility Aggregate private consumption UU Savings Domestic good equilibrium! "#! "$ % "$ Private consumption Investment & "# Domestic output Domestic production function Labor factor ' ()*,"$ ',)-,"$ Capital factor. (/0,"$. 1234,"$ Low skilled High skilled u i(u) j(u) h(u) s

39 Utility Aggregate private consumption UU Income Savings! "#! "$ % "$ Private consumption Investment Composite good market equilibrium Composite good. "$ Composite good Production function Transformation function (CET) Domestic output production function / "$ 0 "$ 1 "$ Imports Domestic good Exports & "$ Gross domestic output ' ()*,"$ ',)-,"$ Labor factor Capital factor u i(u) h(u) Z j FF h F h,j Inc C i E i M i

40 Q i D i pf h p x i p z j p q i p e i p m i p d i ϵ p c S p S f U UU αi u σ z ρ z = σz 1 σ z δ h,j scz j σ q ρ q = σq 1 σ q α m i αi d scq i γ U 0

41 ϵ

42 Utility UU Aggregate private consumption! "#! "$ Private consumption Composite good market equilibrium Composite good Production function Transformation function (CET) + "$ / "$ 7 "$ 0 1 "$,2 Investment Government consumption 2 Intermediate uses Composite good, "$ - "$. "$ Imports Domestic good Exports % "$ Gross domestic output Domestic output production function Composite factor production function Labor factor Composite factor & '(),"$ 4 "$ & 5(6,"$ Capital factor 1 "#,"$ 1 "$,"$ Intermediate inputs Composite labor 8 '9:,"$ 8 ;<=>,"$ Low skilled High skilled

43 Y j Inc N(s, j) K j L j KK NN(s) X(i, j) Z j C i G i I i E i M i Q i D i p k p l j p n s p y j p z j p q i

44 p e i p m i p d i ϵ S p S g S f T d Tj z T p T v KK NN s pc UU σ Y ρ Y = σy 1 σ Y σ i η i = σz 1 σ z ψ i φ i = ψz 1 ψ z α i δj l δj k scy β N(s, j) scl j

45 ax(i, j) ay j µ i λ i δ m i δi d scq i ξi d ξi e θ i ssg τ d Pop U 0 s p We i p Wm i τi z τ p τ v Pop γ

46 Y j = scy j (δ k j Kρ Y j + δ l j Lρ Y j ) ( 1/ρ Y ) K j =(scy ρ Y j δ k j py j /pk ) σy Y j L j =(scy ρ Y j δ l j py j /pl j )σy Y j X i,j = ax i,j Z j Y j = ay j Z j p z j = ay j p y j + i ax i,j p q i L j = scl j s N βn s,j s,j N s,j = βs,j N pl j L j/p n s U s =1 NN s /P op s log(p n s /p c )= γ log( Us Us 0 KK = KK T d = τ d Inc T z j = τ z j pz j Z j T p = τ p j pq j C j T v = τ v j pq j I j G i = µ i (T d + j T z j + T p + T v S g )/p q i S p = i (1 + τ v ) p q i I i S g ϵ S f S g = ssg (T d + j T z j + T p + T v ) Inc = p k KK + s pn s NN s C i = α i (Inc S p T d )/((1 + τ p ) p q i ) p e i = ϵ pw e i p m i = ϵ p Wm i i pwe i E i + S f = i pwm i M i S f = S f ϵ = ϵ Q i = scq i (αi mm ρ Q i + αi ddρ Q ( ) i M i = scq ρ Q i αi m σq pq i p m Qi ( i) D i = scq ρ Q i αi d σq pq i Qi p d i Z i = θ i (ξi e Eφi i E i =(θ φi i D i =(θ φi i Q i = C i + I i NN s = j N s,j KK = j K j p c i = pz i ) ) 1/ρ Q + ξi d Dφi i ξi e (1 + τ i z) pz i /pe i )(1/(1 φi)) Z i ) (1/φi) ξ d i (1 + τ z i ) pz i /pd i )(1/(1 φi)) Z i

47 γ σ Armington ψ CET σ KL

48 5400 Number of jobs created Technology Solar Weatherization Amington elasticity 5400 Number of jobs created Technology Solar Weatherization CET elasticity Number of jobs created Closure FixedChange FixedDeficit 4600 Solar Weatherization Technology

49 γ σ KL σ ψ

50 γ σ KL σ ψ

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