Schedule variance early-warning control model for project critical chain resource plan

Σχετικά έγγραφα
Quick algorithm f or computing core attribute

A research on the influence of dummy activity on float in an AOA network and its amendments

High order interpolation function for surface contact problem

Study on the Strengthen Method of Masonry Structure by Steel Truss for Collapse Prevention

No. 7 Modular Machine Tool & Automatic Manufacturing Technique. Jul TH166 TG659 A

1 (forward modeling) 2 (data-driven modeling) e- Quest EnergyPlus DeST 1.1. {X t } ARMA. S.Sp. Pappas [4]

ER-Tree (Extended R*-Tree)

Gro wth Properties of Typical Water Bloom Algae in Reclaimed Water

: Monte Carlo EM 313, Louis (1982) EM, EM Newton-Raphson, /. EM, 2 Monte Carlo EM Newton-Raphson, Monte Carlo EM, Monte Carlo EM, /. 3, Monte Carlo EM

Nov Journal of Zhengzhou University Engineering Science Vol. 36 No FCM. A doi /j. issn

Buried Markov Model Pairwise

Vol. 31,No JOURNAL OF CHINA UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Feb

ΕΙΣΑΓΩΓΗ ΣΤΗ ΔΙΑΧΕΙΡΙΣΗ ΕΡΓΩΝ. Πάνος Φιτσιλής

Analysis of energy consumption of telecommunications network and application of energy-saving techniques

CorV CVAC. CorV TU317. 1

Approximation Expressions for the Temperature Integral

( ) , ) , ; kg 1) 80 % kg. Vol. 28,No. 1 Jan.,2006 RESOURCES SCIENCE : (2006) ,2 ,,,, ; ;

2 PbO 2. Pb 3 O 4 Sn. Ti/SnO 2 -Sb 2 O 4 -CF/PbO x SnO 2 -Sb PbO 2. Sn-Sb 1:1. 1 h. Sn:Sb=10:1. PbO 2 - CeO 2 PbO 2. [8] SnO 2 +Sb 2 O 4 _

Arbitrage Analysis of Futures Market with Frictions

LUO, Hong2Qun LIU, Shao2Pu Ξ LI, Nian2Bing

Optimization Investment of Football Lottery Game Online Combinatorial Optimization

A System Dynamics Model on Multiple2Echelon Control

The Simulation Experiment on Verifying the Convergence of Combination Evaluation

A method of seeking eigen-rays in shallow water with an irregular seabed

Gain self-tuning of PI controller and parameter optimum for PMSM drives

Probabilistic Approach to Robust Optimization

VSC STEADY2STATE MOD EL AND ITS NONL INEAR CONTROL OF VSC2HVDC SYSTEM VSC (1. , ; 2. , )

Error ana lysis of P2wave non2hyperbolic m oveout veloc ity in layered media

Δθαξκνζκέλα καζεκαηηθά δίθηπα: ε πεξίπησζε ηνπ ζπζηεκηθνύ θηλδύλνπ ζε κηθξνεπίπεδν.

Motion analysis and simulation of a stratospheric airship

ΔΙΠΛΩΜΑΤΙΚΕΣ ΕΡΓΑΣΙΕΣ

,,, (, ) , ;,,, ; -

Schedulability Analysis Algorithm for Timing Constraint Workflow Models

CAP A CAP

Correction of chromatic aberration for human eyes with diffractive-refractive hybrid elements

90 [, ] p Panel nested error structure) : Lagrange-multiple LM) Honda [3] LM ; King Wu, Baltagi, Chang Li [4] Moulton Randolph ANOVA) F p Panel,, p Z

Multi-objective design of control chart for short-run production

ADT

Accounts receivable LTV ratio optimization based on supply chain credit

Antimicrobial Ability of Limonene, a Natural and Active Monoterpene

Application of Wavelet Transform in Fundamental Study of Measurement of Blood Glucose Concentration with Near2Infrared Spectroscopy

ΒΙΟΓΡΑΦΙΚΟ ΣΗΜΕΙΩΜΑ. Λέκτορας στο Τμήμα Οργάνωσης και Διοίκησης Επιχειρήσεων, Πανεπιστήμιο Πειραιώς, Ιανουάριος 2012-Μάρτιος 2014.

Congruence Classes of Invertible Matrices of Order 3 over F 2

Research on model of early2warning of enterprise crisis based on entropy

MIA MONTE CARLO ΜΕΛΕΤΗ ΤΩΝ ΕΚΤΙΜΗΤΩΝ RIDGE ΚΑΙ ΕΛΑΧΙΣΤΩΝ ΤΕΤΡΑΓΩΝΩΝ

Διαχείριση Σύνθετων Έργων με χρήση του MS Project 2010

MUL TIL EVEL2USER2ORIENTED AGRICUL TURAL INFORMATION CLASSIFICATION

ΠΠΜ 512: Ανάλυση Κινδύνου για Πολιτικούς Μηχανικούς και Μηχανικούς Περιβάλλοντος

DOI /J. 1SSN

ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΠΕΙΡΑΙΩΣ ΤΜΗΜΑ ΝΑΥΤΙΛΙΑΚΩΝ ΣΠΟΥΔΩΝ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑ ΜΕΤΑΠΤΥΧΙΑΚΩΝ ΣΠΟΥΔΩΝ ΣΤΗ ΝΑΥΤΙΛΙΑ ΑΤΥΧΗΜΑΤΑ ΚΑΙ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΣΤΗ ΝΑΥΤΙΛΙΑ.

ACTA MATHEMATICAE APPLICATAE SINICA Nov., ( µ ) ( (

Optimization Investment of Football Lottery Game Online Combinatorial Optimization

The toxicity of three chitin synthesis inhibitors to Calliptamus italicus Othoptera Acridoidea

Study of urban housing development projects: The general planning of Alexandria City

Applying Markov Decision Processes to Role-playing Game

Apr Vol.26 No.2. Pure and Applied Mathematics O157.5 A (2010) (d(u)d(v)) α, 1, (1969-),,.

Research on Economics and Management

ΕΝΟΤΗΤΑ 9. ΠΙΣΤΟΠΟΙΗΜΕΝΗ ΑΞΙΑ. Κατερίνα Αδάμ, Μ. Sc., PhD Eπίκουρος Καθηγήτρια

Research on vehicle routing problem with stochastic demand and PSO2DP algorithm with Inver2over operator

Adaptive grouping difference variation wolf pack algorithm

Προϋπολογισμός Προσφοράς Bid Proposal. Κέντρο Εκπαίδευσης ΕΤΕΚ 1 Δρ. Σ. Χριστοδούλου

Development of the Nursing Program for Rehabilitation of Woman Diagnosed with Breast Cancer

The optimization of EV powertrain s efficiency control strategy under dynamic operation condition

172,,,,. P,. Box (1980)P, Guttman (1967)Rubin (1984)P, Meng (1994), Gelman(1996)De la HorraRodriguez-Bernal (2003). BayarriBerger (2000)P P.. : Casell

Q L -BFGS. Method of Q through full waveform inversion based on L -BFGS algorithm. SUN Hui-qiu HAN Li-guo XU Yang-yang GAO Han ZHOU Yan ZHANG Pan

Research on real-time inverse kinematics algorithms for 6R robots

Βιογραφικό Σημείωμα. (τελευταία ενημέρωση 20 Ιουλίου 2015) 14 Ιουλίου 1973 Αθήνα Έγγαμος

ΕΠΙΧΕΙΡΗΣΙΑΚΗ EΡΕΥΝΑ & ΔΙΟΙΚΗΤΙΚΗ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΗ OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Stress Relaxation Test and Constitutive Equation of Saturated Soft Soil

2 ~ 8 Hz Hz. Blondet 1 Trombetti 2-4 Symans 5. = - M p. M p. s 2 x p. s 2 x t x t. + C p. sx p. + K p. x p. C p. s 2. x tp x t.

, Litrrow. Maxwell. Helmholtz Fredholm, . 40 Maystre [4 ], Goray [5 ], Kleemann [6 ] PACC: 4210, 4110H

Optimizing Microwave-assisted Extraction Process for Paprika Red Pigments Using Response Surface Methodology

Models for Asset Liability Management and Its Application of the Pension Funds Problem in Liaoning Province

An Automatic Modulation Classifier using a Frequency Discriminator for Intelligent Software Defined Radio

Vol. 38 No Journal of Jiangxi Normal University Natural Science Nov. 2014

ΠΠΜ 512: Ανάλυση Κινδύνου για Πολιτικούς Μηχανικούς και Μηχανικούς Περιβάλλοντος

!"#$%&' !"#$% = = = ! == == !"#$% !"#$%&'#()*+,-./012!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%& ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./01

Research on the Environmental Impact Factors of Electromagnetic Radiation from High - speed Railway

Γιπλυμαηική Δπγαζία. «Ανθπυποκενηπικόρ ζσεδιαζμόρ γέθςπαρ πλοίος» Φοςζιάνηρ Αθανάζιορ. Δπιβλέπυν Καθηγηηήρ: Νηθφιανο Π. Βεληίθνο

.,., Klas Eric Soderquist,!., (knowledge transfer). % " $&, " 295 " 72 " marketing 65,, ', (, (.

* * E mail : matsuto eng.hokudai.ac.jp. Zeiss

ΠΤΥΧΙΑΚΗ ΕΡΓΑΣΙΑ "ΠΟΛΥΚΡΙΤΗΡΙΑ ΣΥΣΤΗΜΑΤΑ ΛΗΨΗΣ ΑΠΟΦΑΣΕΩΝ. Η ΠΕΡΙΠΤΩΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΕΠΙΛΟΓΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΙΣΤΗΡΙΟΥ ΣΥΜΒΟΛΑΙΟΥ ΥΓΕΙΑΣ "

College of Life Science, Dalian Nationalities University, Dalian , PR China.

Ανάλυση Προτιμήσεων για τη Χρήση Συστήματος Κοινόχρηστων Ποδηλάτων στην Αθήνα

Estimation of stability region for a class of switched linear systems with multiple equilibrium points

ΣΧΕΔΙΑΣΜΟΣ ΔΙΚΤΥΩΝ ΔΙΑΝΟΜΗΣ. Η εργασία υποβάλλεται για τη μερική κάλυψη των απαιτήσεων με στόχο. την απόκτηση του διπλώματος

Quantum dot sensitized solar cells with efficiency over 12% based on tetraethyl orthosilicate additive in polysulfide electrolyte

ΔΘΝΙΚΗ ΥΟΛΗ ΓΗΜΟΙΑ ΓΙΟΙΚΗΗ ΚΑ ΔΚΠΑΙΓΔΤΣΙΚΗ ΔΙΡΑ ΣΔΛΙΚΗ ΔΡΓΑΙΑ

Ερώτημα 3α. Στον παρακάτω πίνακα φαίνονται τα παρακάτω:

A new practical method for closed-loop identification with PI control

Application of Statistical Process Control in Pretreatment Production Process of Gardenia jasminoides

Feasible Regions Defined by Stability Constraints Based on the Argument Principle

Pert ( Gent ( CPM. WBS ( CPM ( FBS (

No General Serial No JOURNAL OF XIAMEN UNIVERSITY Arts & Social Sciences CTD F CTD

Identificatio n of No n2uniformly Perio dically Sa mpled Multirate Syste ms

BUSINESS PLAN (Επιχειρηματικό σχέδιο)

Web-based supplementary materials for Bayesian Quantile Regression for Ordinal Longitudinal Data

SLM. 1 SLM SLM SLM SLM . 316L SLM. TN249 TF124 doi /j. issn X SLM SLM SLM D SLM 100% 3-8. SLM.

552 Lee (2006),,, BIC,. : ; ; ;. 2., Poisson (Zero-Inflated Poisson Distribution), ZIP. Y ZIP(φ, λ), φ + (1 φ) exp( λ), y = 0; P {Y = y} = (1 φ) exp(

Ι ΑΚΤΟΡΙΚΗ ΙΑΤΡΙΒΗ. Χρήστος Αθ. Χριστοδούλου. Επιβλέπων: Καθηγητής Ιωάννης Αθ. Σταθόπουλος

Transcript:

29 6 2014 12 JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Vol.29 No.6 Dec. 2014 1, 2, 3 (1. ( ), 266580; 2., 210093; 3., 150001) :, Weibull, Bayes.,,.,. : ; Bayes ; ; : F272.3 : A : 1000 5781(2014)06 0845 07 Schedule variance early-warning control model for project crical chain resource plan Xu Xiaofeng 1, Li Xiang 2, Liu Jiaguo 3 (1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China; 2. School of Economics and Management Science, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China; 3. Shipbuilding Industry Management Research Instuon, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China ) Abstract: In order to solve the problem that the project crical chain resource plan is easier influenced by uncertain risks of the construcon process and deviate, the paper presents a modeling of schedule variance early-warning control where value analysis is embedded into Weibull distribuon, and is integrated with Bayes esmaon. The main purpose is to solve the hierarchical informaon conversion of resource plan cohesive tasks, improve the uncertain predicon ability of schedule variance, and take correcve measures for project managers and decision makers to ensure the plan s normal proceeding. Finally, a case analysis shows that the proposed model is correct and effecve. Key words: project management; Bayes esmaon; earned value analysis; schedule early-warning 1 ( ), [1]. : 2014 02 13; : 2014 07 17. : (70971028); (J13WG67); (2013EI228); (QDSKL130415); (14CX04047B).

846 29,, /.,,,,.,,., Goldratt [2] (theory of constraint, TOC),,. Wei [3], TOC,. [4] Goldratt,,., [5]. [6], GM(1,1),. Nassar [7] Weibull earning value analysis, EVA, /. [8],,,. Kim [9] (crical path method, CPM) EVA, Kalman Bayesian,. [10], /,.,,.,.,, Bayes Weibull,. EVA / (schedule/cost performance index, SPI/CPI) Weibull ; Bayes,. 2., /,. CPM/PERT,,,. ( 1). t 1,t 2,...,t m, [,+1 ) i, n i i, d i i, (n i,d i ) i.,. BCWS i i, ACWP i i, BCWP i i. i,, : 1) i, ( )R i ; 2) i p i, i + 1

6 : 847. t 1 t 2 t 3 t 4 +1 n 1, d 1 n 2, d 2 n 3, d 3 n 4, d 4 n i, d i n i+1, d i+1 t m 1/Z 1 /t z11 5/Z 4 /t z45 6/Z 5 /t z56 2/Z 2 /t z22 4/Z 2 /t z24 8/Z 4 /t z48 y/z x /t zxy 3/Z 3 /t z33 7/Z 4 /t z47 y/z x /t zxy 表示任务 y 需要资源 Z x, 执行时间为 t zxy ; 表示该任务为关键链上任务 t 1 BCWS 1 ACWP 1 BCWP 1 t 2 BCWS 2 ACWP 2 BCWP 2 t 3 BCWS 3 ACWP 3 BCWP 3 t 4 BCWS 4 ACWP 4 BCWP 4 BCWS i ACWP i BCWP i +1 BCWS i+1 ACWP i+1 BCWP i+1 t m 1 Fig. 1 Network diagram of crical chain resource plan, : 1) m, i [,+1 ),i = 1,2,...,m 1,,,, 0 p 1 p 2 p m < 1; 2) Weibull, i p i (t α,β) = 1 e ( α ) β, 0,α,β > 0,i = 1,2,...,m 1;α,β, R i = 1 p i = e ( α ) β ; 3),,,,,., i R i, Weibull R i β. i 1 R i 1, i R i α =, t ( ln R i 1 ) 1 i 0, β > 0, i = 2,3,...,m, (1) β R i ( R i,β) = e ln Ri 1 ( ) β, 0,β > 0, i = 2,3,...,m. (2) Weibull φ i ( α,β) = β ( ) β 1 e ( α) β, 0, α, β > 0, i = 1,2,...,m 1, (3) α α R i β Weibull φ i ( R i,β) = β ( ln R i 1 ) ( ) e ln Ri 1( ) β, 0, β > 0, i = 2,3,...,m. (4), t β, R., t β, φ i ( R i,β) R i, R i = 1 p i, φ i ( R i,β) p i π i (p i,β) π i (p i,β) = β ( ) β ( ) ln(1 p i ) e ln(1 pi 1) β, 0,β > 0, i = 2,3,...,m. (5)

848 29 π i (p i ) i, i, Bayes f i (p i (n i,d i )) = pi 1 Pr{(n i,d i ) p i } = ( n i ) d i p d i i (1 p i ) ni di,m{(n i,d i ) p i } =. 0 π i (p i )Pr{(n i,d i ) p i }, i = 2,3,...,m, (6) π i (p i )Pr{(n i,d i ) p i }dp i pi 1 0 π i (p i )Pr{(n i,d i ) p i }dp i p i, t β, i π i (p i,β) Weibull φ i ( R i,β)., (n i,d i ), i f i (p i (n i,d i )), i + 1 π i+1 (p i+1 ),. β, π(p). 2.1 SPI/CPI (α,β) Weibull, (median ranking method MRM). MRM Weibull y = kx + b, α β [11,12]. : 1 i, SPI i /CPI i,, SPI i = BCWP i /BCWS i,cpi i = BCWP i /ACWP i ; 2 SPI i /CPI i i = 1,2,...,n, M i, M i = (i 0.3)/(n + 0.4),i = 1,2,...,n; 3 ln (ln(1/(1 M i ))), ln(spi i ) ln(cpi i ) y = kx + b ; 4 β = k SPI k CPI, α = e b β SPI e b β CPI. 2.2 Bayes,,.,, [13,14]. i, (n i,d i ),, i p i Bayes f i (p i (n i,d i )), (5) i + 1 π i+1 (p i+1 +1,β) = β +1 ( ln(1 l i p i )) ( +1 ) β e ln(1 lipi)( +1 ) β, 0,β > 0, i = 1,2,...,m 1, (7) l i., t β, l i, i + 1. ML-II,, l i. (n i+1,d i+1 ) i + 1, m(n i+1,d i+1 ) p i+1. i, i + 1, n i+1, d i+1.,, Monte Carlo

6 : 849 m(n i+1,d i+1 = Max) l i ˆl i, i + 1 p i+1 π i+1 (p i+1 +1,β) = β ( ) β ln(1 t ˆl +1 i p i ) e ln(1 ˆl ip i)( +1 ) β, i+1 0,β > 0, i = 1,2,...,m 1. (8),. 3,, MATLAB. / SPI/CPI,, 1. 1 Table 1 Project progress informaon stascs i SPI i CPI i n i d i 1 0.43 0.35 4 2 2 1.30 0.73 2 0 3 0.99 0.87 3 1 4 0.82 1.24 5 3 5 1.04 1.02 1 0 6 0.57 0.91 1 1 7 1.13 0.69 2 0 8 0.84 0.88 3 1 9 1.48 1.33 2 1 10 0.93 0.95 4 2 11 0.94 1.05 2 0 1 SPI/CPI, ln SPI ln CPI. MRM M i, ln (ln (1/(1 M i ))), 2. 2 Table 2 MRM MRM-based data processing i SPI i ln SPI i CPI i lncpi i M i ln(ln(1/(1 M i ))) 1 0.43 0.84 0.35 1.05 0.06 2.76 2 1.30 0.56 0.73 0.37 0.15 1.82 3 0.99 0.20 0.87 0.31 0.24 1.31 4 0.82 0.17 1.24 0.14 0.32 0.94 5 1.04 0.07 1.02 0.13 0.41 0.63 6 0.57 0.06 0.91 0.09 0.50 0.37 7 1.13 0.01 0.69 0.05 0.59 0.12 8 0.84 0.04 0.88 0.02 0.68 0.12 9 1.48 0.12 1.33 0.05 0.76 0.36 10 0.93 0.26 0.95 0.22 0.85 0.64 11 0.94 0.39 1.05 0.29 0.94 1.03 2 ln SPI i /ln CPI i ln (ln (1/(1 M i ))) y = kx + b, β = k,α = e b β, 3. 3 β, li ˆl i. ˆl i [0,n i ],. f i, [0,n i ],.

/ 0 I 850 29, Monte Carlo 10 000, m i (n i,d i ) ˆl i., 1, π 0 (p 0 ) = 1, p 0 = 0.0030. Table 3 3 Parameter esmaon based on regression analysis (SPI) (CPI) k 3.14 4.12 b 0.21 4.28 β 3.14 4.12 α 0.94 0.35 2 0. 2 5 0. 2 0. 1 5 0. 1 0. 0 5 S P C P I 2 4 6 8 1 0 2 / Fig. 2 Resource plan schedule/cost variance appear probability curve 2,, /. /,,., p < 0.15, 8.,, p i [0.15,0.20),, 9,,,. /,, p 0.20, 10,,,. 4,,. Weibull, Bayes. EVA Weibull, Bayes,,

6 : 851.,.,,,. : [1] Savkin A V, Petersen I R. An uncertainty averaging approach to opmal guaranteed cost control of uncertain systems with structured uncertainty[j]. Automaca, 1995, 31(11): 1649 1653. [2] Goldratt E M. Crital Chain[M]. Great Barrington: The North River Press, 1997. [3] Wei C C, Liu P H, Tsai Y C. Resource constrained project management using enhanced theory of constraint[j]. Internaonal Journal of Project Management, 2002, 20(7): 561 567. [4],. [J]., 2010, 24(5): 559 563. Zhao Zhenyu, Lü Qianlei. Study on the double-buffering method for project schedule control[j]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2010, 24(5): 559 563. (in Chinese) [5] Nasir D, McCabe B, Hartono L. Evaluang risk in construcon-schedule risk model[j]. Journal of Construcon Engineering and Management, 2003, 129(5): 518 527. [6],. [J]., 2000, 28(3): 114 116. Zhao Qinghua, Zhong Wenle. Predicon of deviaon for project progress[j]. Journal of Hohai University, 2000, 28(3): 114 116. (in Chinese) [7] Nassar K M, Gunnarsson H G, Hegab M Y. Using Weibull analysis for evaluaon of cost and schedule performance[j]. Journal of Construcon Engineering and Management, 2005, 131(12): 1257 1262. [8],,,. [J]., 2006, 39(3): 280 283. Liu Donghai, Feng Shouzhong, Zhong Denghua, et al. Project schedule real-me forecasng and control based on simulsted construcon process[j]. Journal of Tianjin University, 2006, 39(3): 280 283. (in Chinese) [9] Kim B C. Forecasng project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilisc methods[d]. Texas: Texas A&M University, 2007. [10],. [J]., 2010, 24(3):318 322. Chen Dongfang, Chen Jianguo. Progress early-warning model and its applicaon for construcon projects[j]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2010, 24(3): 318 322. (in Chinese) [11] Henley E J, Kumamoto H. Probabilisc Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Sciensts[M]. New York: IEEE Press, 1996. [12] Li X, Wang D, Li K, et al. A green train scheduling model and fuzzy mul-objecve opmizaon algorithm[j]. Applied Mathemacal Modeling, 2013, 37(4): 2063 2073. [13],,,. [J]., 2011, 26(5): 599 607. Nan Guofang, Hao Lei, Li Minqiang, et al. Task allocaon model for sensor networks based on mul-objecve opmizaon[j]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2011, 26(5): 599 607. (in Chinese) [14]. Bayes [J]., 2004(4): 10 13. Zhang Jinhuai. The different methods and analysis of determining prior distribuon on reliability growth tesng[j]. Quality and Reliability, 2004(4): 10 13. (in Chinese) : (1982 ),,,,, :, Email: xiaofengheu@163.com; (1982 ),,,,, :, Email: lixiang@mail.buct.edu.cn; (1979 ),,,,, :, Email: liujiaguo@gmail.com.