Wind investment opportunities in Greece under the framework of the Long-term Energy Forecasting

Wind investment opportunities in Greece under the framework of the Long-term Energy Forecasting Dr. Athanasios Dagoumas 1. Lecturer in Energy & Resource Economics, University of Piraeus. Special Advisor to the Hellenic Minister of Environment, Energy & Climate Change

Framework of the Long-term Energy Forecasting Status in the Electro-production sector Preliminary Results of the Long-term Energy Forecasting Conclusions - Wind perspectives

Long-term Energy forecasting towards Double dividend: Meeting environmental targets & Economic Growth Considering also: Employment Energy security Energy poverty and inequalities

in the framework of EU Energy and Climate targets for 3 Hellenic position: 4% GHG reduction Explore a 3% share of RES in EU energy consumption (compared to proposed 7% by the EC) 3% energy savings 1% interconnection of all consumers to the mainland interconnected energy system 1% of consumers with smart meters

Tackling Energy Security Through: Diversification of routes and resources TAP pipeline, LNG terminals, reverse flows Deployment of indigenous resources (conventional and renewables) Deployment of Renewables Exploration of Hydrocarbons Replacement of old lignite units

Natural Gas import shares in 1998-13

nd Licensing round for Hydrocarbons Exploration

Major Infrastructure projects

Key facts Privatizations Submission of final offers for the TSO Small PPC Decommissioning/replacement of old-lignite units High penetration of RES (especially PVs) Financial unsustainability due to high FITs, led to a New Deal Decrease of Natural Gas electro-production although commissioning of new units increase of Net imports Gradual implementation of the target model

Electro-production (GWh) 8 7 in 199-13 Ηλεκτροπαραγωγή και Καθαρές εισαγωγές ηλεκτρισμού την περίοδο 199-13 GWh 6 5 4 3 1 Καθαρές εισαγωγές Φ/Β Αιολικά Y/H Βιομάζα Φυσικό Αέριο Πετρελαϊκά Στερεά Καύσιμα

Installed capacity (GW) in 199-13 5 Εγκατεστημένη ισχύς για Η/Π την περίοδο 199-13 GW 15 1 5 Αντλητικά Φ/Β Αιολικά Υ/Η Βιομάζα Φυσικό Αέριο Πετρελαϊκά Στερεά καύσιμα 199 1991 199 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13

Reliability issues (e.g. sunset effect)!

Integrating the Target Model in the Electricity Market

Scenarios of Long-term Energy forecasting Main Scenarios: Scenario - Business as Usual No targets Scenario Ambitious policies for fulfillment of National and European targets -- for and 4-3-3 for 3 Scenario 3 Realistic policies for fulfillment of National and European targets As scenario, but more modest for Scenario 4 - Realistic policies with modest lignite development As scenario 3, but more modest concerning lignite

Long-term Energy forecasting IMPORTANT: The following graphs and figures are preliminary

Cumulative investment cost in Electro-production (mil. Euros) in 3 14-3 Σωρευτικό κόστος επενδύσεων στην ηλεκτροπαραγωγή - TIMES 5 RES 15 ΑΠΕ στην Ηλεκτροπαραγωγή 1 Συμβατική Ηλεκτροπαραγωγή 5 Convenional 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 3

Electro-production (GWh) in 13-3 Ηλεκτροπαραγωγή και Εισαγωγές Imports 8 PVs 7 Καθαρές Εισαγωγές 6 5 Γεωθερμία CSP Φ/Β Wind GWh 4 3 Αιολικά Υ/Η Βιοαέριο - Fuel Cells Gas 1 Βιομάζα & Bιοαέριο Φ. Αέριο Πετρελαικά Lignite 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 Στερεά Καύσιμα - Λιθάνθρακας Στερεά Καύσιμα - Λιγνίτης 13 15 5 3

Installed Capacity (GW) in 13-3 GW 35, 3, 5,, 15, 1, 5, Εγκατεστημένη Ισχύς για Ηλεκτροπαραγωγή Αντλητικά Υ/Η Γεωθερμία CSP Φ/Β Αιολικά Υ/Η Fuel Cells Βιοαερίου Βιομάζα & Βιοαέριο Φ. Αέριο Πετρελαικά Imports PVs Wind Gas Lignite, 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 Στερεά Καύσιμα - Λιθάνθρακας Στερεά Καύσιμα - Λιγνίτης 13 15 5 3

Sensitivity analysis A sensitivity Monte-Carlo analysis was conducted to capture the effect of: GDP growth, Fuel prices, CO prices In all scenarios, the penetration of Wind is high, as its Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is lower than other technologies, especially in islands Critical factors for their penetration, are the timing of the interconnection of islands, technical and reliability constraints as well the position of local societies

Wind capacity investments mainly in islands

Interconnection of islands

Timeline of implementation of Interconnection with islands Interconnection)of)Cyclades)to)the)mainland)Interconnected)system) Contracts) have) been) signed),) Α)Phase) 16) engineering) works) to) start) by) the) end)of)the)year) Β)Phase) 17) )) C)Phase) 18) )) Replacement) of) Underwater) cables) between) EvoiaC) 17) )) Andros)and)Andros) )Tinos)) Interconnection)of)Crete)to)the)mainland)Interconnected)system) Linked) with) the) Privatization) of) Α)Pole) 19) ADMIE,) The) process) of) Environmental) Licensing)) is) about) to) start) Β)Pole) 1) Linked) with) the) Privatization) of) ADMIE,) The) process) of) Environmental) Licensing)) is) about) to) start) )

Local concerns Opposition of local societies is becoming weaker - as environmental concerns are considered (last year 1GW of Environmental Licenses approved) - as RES provide benefits to local communities (employment, revenues) 3% of RES turnovers are distributed to local societies 1.7% to municipalities,.3% to Green Fund, 1% to local citizens (this was not implemented) A new Ministerial decision will distribute about millions Euros (for the period 1-14) to citizens in the areas with RES (mainly Wind)

Conclusions The Long-term energy forecasting targets at Double Dividend, namely Economic growth and meeting ambitious Environmental targets Moreover, at tackling Energy Security, including the deployment of indigenous resources Penetration of Wind is forecasted to be high at all scenarios, as its Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is lower than other technologies However it is strongly related with the Interconnection of Islands (Cyclades, Crete, North Aegean ), and the position of local societies New Ministerial Decision for distribution of RES revenues to local societies