? 3 , : (1) ; (2) , Kydland Prescott (1982) , Abel Blanchard (1983) Mankiw (1987) Blanchard Fischer

Μέγεθος: px

Εμφάνιση ξεκινά από τη σελίδα:

Download "? 3 , : (1) ; (2) , Kydland Prescott (1982) , Abel Blanchard (1983) Mankiw (1987) Blanchard Fischer"

ÍΘεριστής Μελετόπουλος
5 χρόνια πριν
Προβολές:

1 :?? 3 :,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4), HP,, : 30, Lucas(1976),Kydland Prescott (1982),(DGEM),,,,,? DGEM,, (),,, : (1), Abel Blanchard (1983) Mankiw (1987) Blanchard Fischer (1989) ; (2),,Aschauer Greenwood (1985) Aschauer (1988) Christiano Eichenbaum (1992) Aschansuer Greenwood (1985),,,,, edu. edu. cn, edu. cn(05bjl018) (2007BJB026), 78

2 2009 3, ; (3),,,Barro King (1984) Judd (1985) Baxter King (1993),,, Turnovsky Fisher (1995),, :Aschauer Greenwood (1985) Aschauer (1989,1990) Barro (1990) Barro King (1984) Baxter King (1993) 1 1 Baxter,King Trabandt,Uhlig Mankiw, Matthew Chamley ln( c t ) + l ln( l t ) + ( G B t, K G t ) Y t = AK k t N N t ( K G t ) c ( c (1 - n) 1 - ) ( ce v( n) ) t u ( c t, l t ) y t = z t k t - 1 n 1 - t y = k n 1 -, t = 0 Laffer,, (), 13,12,5,,( ),,( ) 1985,,, ( ),,,,,, ( ),, GDP,,, (2004) RBC, (2002) 76 %,, M2 M1(2006),,, ;,5 79

3 :? :,?,,, 11 : max c t, i t, n t, k t, b t E{ t [ (1 - ) ln c t + (ln < t - n t ) + (1 - ) g ln g t ]} t = 0 s. t. (1 + c t ) c t + i t + q t b t = (1 - t ) t n t + (1 - k t ) + s t + b t - 1, k t = (1 - ) k t i t, c < n g g ; k i, : y t = t ( k t - 1 ) 1- ( n t ),,,, : b t g t + s t = b t + n t t n t + k t d t k t c t c t,,, 21 : t = (1 - ) y t Πn t, d t = y t Πk t - 1 : 1 - = t (1 + c t ) : = < t - t (1 - n t ) t n t Lagarian : L = E{ + [ (1 - ) ln c t + (ln < t - n t ) + (1 - ) g ln g t + t ( (1 + c t ) c t + k t - (1 - ) k t (1 - k t ) d t k t - 1 ) ) ] + t +1 [ (1 - ) ln c t +1 + (ln < t +1 - n t +1 ) + (1 - ) g ln g t +1 + t +1 ( (1 + c t +1 ) c t +1 + k t +1 - (1 - ) k t + - (1 - k t +1) d t +1 k t ) ) ]} : t = E[ t +1 ( y t +1 k t k t + 1) d t c t ) ] : R k t + 1 y t = (1 - k t,, Lagarian :1 =E [ t + 1 Π( t q t ) ] 31 AR(1) : ln t = (1 - r ) lng+ r ln+ y, t, : 80 t - 1

4 ,,,: ( y n ) t = ( k n ) t,= 1 - ; gr = (1 - g ) gy gk d t ; gr = 1Π= 1Πgq ; gy = ggkgn ; gb + g + gs = gqgb + g n (1 - ) gy + g k gy + g c gc ; 1 - gy = g(1 + g c ) ; = g(1 - g n ) (1 - ) gc g< - gn gn Solow : y t = t ( k t - 1 ) ( n t ) 1-,ln t = (1 - ) lng+ ln t - 1 +, t, g,, t,, : GDP 20 %,,,,OLS : g t +1 s t +1 = g g t + g, t +1 = s s t + s, t , ,, 1718 %, GDP, ,1995, GDP, 818 % ;GDP 1 2, %,GDP 1994, 81

5 :?,, ,,,, % ;,,, % ;, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) % 0199 % 0199 % 1103 % 1105 % 1114 % 0151 % 0175 % 1104 % 1117 % 1121 % 1127 % % % % % % % % % % % % % 3, Baxter King (1993), 3 k l GΠY I G ΠY GDP GDP % 8153 % Baxter King(1993) % 10 % ,, x t, y t, z t,: x t = Px t Qz t, y t = Rx t Sz t, z t = Nx t t Uhlig(1999), Monte Carlo, Matlab Kydland Prescott (1982),,,,Campbell (1994), Campbell, 0195,017, 82

6 ,,,,,, (2003) Laffont Martimont (2002), % %,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 83

7 :?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2000),,,; ( ), Zeng Zhang (2001),,,,, 3 GDP GDP( t - j) HP , HP,,(3),GDP, HP ,4618 % Hansen (1985), 3, 4 (4), RBC,,,,,,,,, 84

8 2009 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, HP,,,,,,2002 ::,7, 2004 :?,4 :2000 :,,, 2003 : :,4, 2006 :: , 8,2003 :,6 Abel, A., and O. Blanchard, 1983,An Intertemporal Equilibrium Model of Saving and Investment, Econometrica 51 : Aschauer, David Alan, 1990,Is Government Spending Stimulative?Contemporary Economic Policy, 8 : Aschauer, David Alan, 1989,Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 : Aschauer, David Alan, 1988,The Equilibrium Approach to Fiscal Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 20 : Aschauer, David Alan, and Greenwood, Jeremy, 1985,Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy, Carnegie2Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 23 : Barro, Robert J, 1990,Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98 : Barro, Robert J and King, Robert G, 1984,Time2separable Preferences and Intertemporal Substitution Models of Business Cycles, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99 : Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993,Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium, American Economic Review, 83 : Blanchard, Olivier J., and Stanley Fischer, 1989, Lectures on Macroeconomics, Cambridge, MIT Press. Campbell, John Y., 1994,Inspecting the Mechanism : An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33 : Chamley, Christophe, 1986,Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives, Econometrica, 54 : Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992,Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, American Economic Review, 82 : Hansen, Gary D., 1985,Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 : Judd, Kenneth L, 1985,Short2run Analysis of Fiscal Policy in a Simple Perfect Foresight Model, Journal of Political Economy, 93 :298 Kydland, Finn and Edward Prescott, 1982,Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica,50 : Laffont, Jean2Jacques and Martimort, David, 2005,The Design of Transnational Public Good Mechanisms for Developing Countries, Journal of Public Economics, 89 : Lucas, Robert E., Jr., 1976,Econometric Policy Evaluation : a Critique, Carnegie2Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1 :7 33. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987,Government Purchases and Real Interest Rates, Journal of Political Economy, 95 : Mankiw, N. Gregory &Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006,Dynamic Scoring : A Back2of2the2envelope Guide, Journal of Public Economics, 90 :8 ( 159 ) 85

9 (2008) 10 %,2008,,,,;,, ;,,,,,???, (2008) ( , ),,2007,,,,,,, X, ( ) ( X 4 ),2008 ( X X ) ( X 1 ) ( 85 ) Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2006,How Far Are We From the Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited,CEPR Discussion Papers Turnovsky, Stephen J. and Fisher, Walter H., 1995,The Composition of Government Expenditure and Its Consequences for Macroeconomic Performance, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 19 : Uhlig, Harald, 1999,A Toolkit for Analyzing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily,in Ramon Marimon and Andrew Scott, eds, Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies, Oxford University Press, Zeng Jinli and Zhang Jie, 2001,Long2run Growth Effects of Taxation in a Non2scale Growth Model with Innovation,Working Paper No. 0104, National University of Singapore. Does Chinese Fiscal Policy Increase Total Social Utility? Cai Mingchao, Fei Fangyu and Zhu Baohua (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University) Abstract :The paper studies Chinese fiscal policy and aggregate economic Behavior, government sector is added to traditional Real Business Cycle model, exogenous shocks include technology, government transfer, surprising government purchase, and tax policies. The paper draws the following conclusions : 1) Government transfer doesnπt improve aggregate social utility. 2) Government purchase leads to a lower level of employment, investment, consumption and capital accumulation. 3) Capital tax imposes a negative dynamic impact on consumption. 4) After HP filter, government transfer, capital tax, government consumption and consumption tax are consistent with business cycle, which is accordant with Chinese macroeconomics stylized factors. Key Words : Fiscal Policy ; Dynamic Recursive ; Calibration JEL Classification : E22, E62, H62 (: ) ( : ) 159

Σχετικά έγγραφα

:,,,, ,,, ;,,,,,, ,, (Barro,1990), (Barro and Sala2I2Martin,1992), (Arrow and Kurz,1970),, ( Glomm and Ravikumar,1994), (Solow,1957)

:,,,, ,,, ;,,,,,, ,, (Barro,1990), (Barro and Sala2I2Martin,1992), (Arrow and Kurz,1970),, ( Glomm and Ravikumar,1994), (Solow,1957) : 3 ( 100820 :,,,,,,,;,,,,,, :,,,,,, (Barro,1990, (Barro and Sala2I2Martin,1992,(Arrow and Kurz,1970,,, ( Glomm and Ravikumar,1994,,,, (Solow,1957 3, 10 2004 3,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,, ( Inada,1963,,,,,;, ;, ;,,,,,(Ramsey,1928,,,,