Catastrophes naturelles et interruption d activité

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1 Catastrophes naturelles et interruption d activité Yanos Zylberberg CREI - Pompeu Fabra Gestion et mesure des risques environnementaux, 24 jan / 18

2 Compta! Fonction de production: Theorie: Empirique: y i t = dyt,t 1 Y t 1 = dat,t 1 A t 1 Y t = A tk α t L 1 α t + α dkt,t 1 K t 1 + (1 α) dlt,t 1 L t 1 y i t = β d ( d i t E [ d i t]) + ỹ i t + ε i t 2/ 18

3 Stratégies empiriques Equation: Identification: y i t = β dd i t + β pp i t + β xx t 1 + ν i + γ t + ε i t d i t = α ee i t + α pp i t + α xx t 1 + ρ i + δ t + µ i t (1) y i t = β d di t + β pp i t + β xx t 1 + ν i + γ t + ε i t (2) X t 1= Gross capital formation, current account, exports, government consumption and reserves (S) 3/ 18

4 Contribution Machine de guerre! catastrophes: exhaustif. mesures objectives. Interpretation Littérature: Strobl (2011), Noy (2009), Raddatz (2009) 4/ 18

5 y i t: World Development Indicators d i t: Sources (180 pays, ) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database e i t: Joint Typhoon Warning Center et PREVIEW Global Cyclones Asymmetric Wind speed Profile USGS et National Geophysical Data Center Gridded Population of the World (CIESIN) 5/ 18

Dataclysm (180 pays, 1980-2006) Figure: Cyclones

6 Dataclysm (180 pays, ) Figure: Cyclones depuis 1980 et densité de population en / 18

7 Dans une zone ζ: densité d e energie e Construction Mesure locale: d e if e ē Mesure aggrégée: 1 e ē d e dζ 7/ 18

8 Description - carte 100 pays, 500 cyclones and 600 tremblements de terre 8/ 18

9 Description - table VARIABLES Unaffected Cyclones Earthquakes Both Countries Population ( , 2006) GDP per capita (2006) Private credit (% GDP, 2006) Agriculture (% GDP, 2006) Manufacture (% GDP, 2006) Industry (% GDP, 2006) Reported losses (cyclones) Reported affected (cyclones) Affected (cat. 2 cyclones) Affected (cat. 4 cyclones) Reported losses (quakes) Reported affected (quakes) Affected (VI quakes) Affected (VIII quakes) / 18

10 Exemples Country/Year Reports Obj. measures Earthquakes Country Year Losses Affected Thresholds V VII VIII Pakistan Japan (Kobe) Salvador Chile (Santiago) Cyclones Country Year Losses Affected Thresholds US (Katrina) US (Andrew) Honduras (Mitch) Japan (Songda) / 18

11 30% Cyclones 11/ 18

12 10% Tremblements de terre 12/ 18

13 VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy density.00248*** (cyclones) (.00017) s ***.00399***.00552***.00476***.00435*** (cyclones) (.00079) (.00099) (.00097) (.00097) (.00095) s *** (cyclones) (.00202) (.00275) (.00283) (.00279) s ***.02403***.02185*** (cyclones) (.00419) (.00592) (.00585) s ***.08820*** (cyclones) (.00624) (.00668) s *** (cyclones) (.01364) Energy density (quakes) (.00016) s * (quakes) (.00046) (.00072) (.00070) (.00070) (.00069) s ***.01050***.01084*** (quakes) (.00271) (.00379) (.00379) (.00374) s *** *** *** (quakes) (.01077) (.01104) (.01091) s (quakes) (.02690) (.02920) s * (quakes) (.05959) Adj. R-squared p-value(quakes) p-value(cyclones) Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 13/ 18

14 Specification (S) - second stage Panel A y t y t 1 d t (% GDP) *** *** *** (0.041) (0.322) (0.252) (0.136) (0.134) (0.104) Instruments - s c,q 0 s c,q 0,1 s c,q 0,1,2 s c,q 0,1,2,3 s c,q 0,1,2,3,4 Controls Observations 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 Panel B y t y t 1 d t (% GDP) * *** *** *** (0.107) (0.310) (0.238) (0.095) (0.093) (0.094) Instruments - s c,q 0 s c,q 0,1 s c,q 0,1,2 s c,q 0,1,2,3 s c,q 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 Panel C y t d t (% GDP) ** * * ** (0.053) (0.139) (0.124) (0.107) (0.101) (0.099) Instruments - s c,q 0 s c,q 0,1 s c,q 0,1,2 s c,q 0,1,2,3 s c,q 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 14/ 18

15 Pertes de capital: y = α Y }{{} K d d.4 }{{}.05 + (1 α) dl L }{{} + da A }{{} 15/ 18

16 Pertes de capital: y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{} (1 α) dl }{{ L} 0 + da A }{{} 15/ 18

17 Pertes de capital: y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{} (1 α) dl }{{ L} 0 + da A }{{}.35 15/ 18

18 Rigidités salariales: dl L = dk K y = α Y }{{} K d d.4 }{{}.05 + (1 α) dl L }{{} + da A }{{} 16/ 18

19 Rigidités salariales: dl L = dk K y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{} (1 α) dl }{{ L}.10 + da A }{{} 16/ 18

20 Rigidités salariales: dl L = dk K y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{} (1 α) dl }{{ L}.10 + da A }{{}.25 16/ 18

21 Complementarités sectorielles: ( 1 K = 0 ) 1/ρ K ρ i di Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur: y = }{{}.4 ( (1 α Y ) K d d) 1/ρ 1 }{{}.10 + (1 α) dl L }{{} + da A }{{} Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu on appelle de l interruption d activité... 17/ 18

22 Complementarités sectorielles: ( 1 K = 0 ) 1/ρ K ρ i di Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur: y = }{{}.4 ( (1 α Y ) K d d) 1/ρ 1 + (1 α) dl }{{}}{{ L} da A }{{} Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu on appelle de l interruption d activité... 17/ 18

23 Complementarités sectorielles: ( 1 K = 0 ) 1/ρ K ρ i di Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur: y = }{{}.4 ( (1 α Y ) K d d) 1/ρ 1 + (1 α) dl }{{}}{{ L} da A }{{}.10 Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu on appelle de l interruption d activité... 17/ 18

24 18/ 18

25 Merci! 19/ 18

26 VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy density.00248*** (cyclones) (.00017) s ***.00401***.00554***.00478***.00437*** (cyclones) (.00077) (.00096) (.00094) (.00094) (.00093) s *** (cyclones) (.00196) (.00267) (.00275) (.00271) s ***.02409***.02197*** (cyclones) (.00407) (.00575) (.00568) s ***.08790*** (cyclones) (.00606) (.00648) s *** (cyclones) (.01324) Energy density (quakes) (.00016) s (quakes) (.00045) (.00070) (.00068) (.00068) (.00067) s ***.01016***.01056*** (quakes) (.00264) (.00368) (.00368) (.00363) s *** *** *** (quakes) (.01046) (.01072) (.01059) s (quakes) (.02612) (.02834) s (quakes) (.05784) Adj. R-squared p-value(quakes) p-value(cyclones) Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 20/ 18

27 VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy density (cyclones) (.00004) s (cyclones) (.00018) (.00023) (.00023) (.00023) (.00023) s (cyclones) (.00046) (.00064) (.00067) (.00067) s (cyclones) (.00098) (.00140) (.00140) s (cyclones) (.00148) (.00160) s (cyclones) (.00326) Energy density.00042*** (quakes) (.00004) s ***.00103***.00104***.00103***.00103*** (quakes) (.00010) (.00016) (.00016) (.00017) (.00017) s (quakes) (.00062) (.00089) (.00090) (.00090) s (quakes) (.00252) (.00261) (.00261) s (quakes) (.00636) (.00698) s *** (quakes) (.01425) Adj. R-squared p-value(quakes) p-value(cyclones) Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 21/ 18

28 Specification (S) - second stage Panel A First difference of output growth y t y t 1 Damages (% GDP) d t * *** *** *** (0.041) (0.362) (0.305) (0.138) (0.138) (0.110) Instruments - s c 0 s c 0,1 s c 0,1,2 s c 0,1,2,3 s c 0,1,2,3,4 Controls Observations 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 Panel B First difference of output growth y t y t 1 Damages (% GDP) d t * *** *** *** (0.105) (0.298) (0.247) (0.101) (0.095) (0.096) Instruments - s c 0 s c 0,1 s c 0,1,2 s c 0,1,2,3 s c 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 Panel C Output growth y t Damages (% GDP) d t ** * ** (0.054) (0.140) (0.126) (0.110) (0.103) (0.101) Instruments - s c 0 s c 0,1 s c 0,1,2 s c 0,1,2,3 s c 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 22/ 18

29 PANEL A Cyclones PANEL B Earthquakes Regressand yt y t 1 yt y t 1 yt yt Regressand yt y t 1 yt y t 1 yt yt Regressors Regressors s s (cyclones) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (quakes) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s *** *** s (cyclones) (0.004) (0.004) (0.007) (0.006) (quakes) (0.004) (0.005) (0.007) (0.006) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s *** *** * ** s (cyclones) (0.010) (0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (quakes) (0.015) (0.018) (0.028) (0.024) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s ** *** ** s (cyclones) (0.018) (0.022) (0.019) (0.018) (quakes) (0.030) (0.034) (0.100) (0.081) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s ** s * (cyclones) (0.043) (0.060) (0.058) (0.202) (quakes) (0.070) (0.055) (0.255) (0.207) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 Specifications OLS OLS AB AB Specifications OLS OLS AB AB Controls - yes - yes Controls - yes - yes Propensities yes yes yes yes Propensities yes yes yes yes 23/ 18

30 Panel A Cyclones First difference y t y t 1 Output growth y t s *** -.041*** -.023* -.027** (cyclones) (.009) (.011) (.012) (.012) L.s * (cyclones) (.012) (.014) (.012) (.012) L2.s ** -.035** (cyclones) (.012) (.015) (.012) (.012) L3.s (cyclones) (.016) (.019) (.012) (.012) L4.s (cyclones) (.018) (.015) (.014) (.012) Controls - yes - yes FE - - country country Observations 4,646 3,651 4,646 3,651 Earthquakes First difference y t y t 1 Output growth y t s (quakes) (0.017) (0.018) (0.027) (0.023) L.s (quakes) (0.017) (0.017) (0.026) (0.022) L2.s (quakes) (0.017) (0.018) (0.026) (0.021) L3.s (quakes) (0.012) (0.011) (0.026) (0.021) L4.s (quakes) (0.016) (0.017) (0.028) (0.022) Controls - yes - yes FE - - country country Observations 4,646 3,651 4,646 3,651 24/ 18

31 Kinetic energy 1 2 mv2 (collision completely stops the molecule motion). The vertical surface associated with a horizontal surface: C dds Number of molecules vdτ ρ. 1 2 ρcdv3 dτds Table: Choice of parameters values for the energy measures Description Parameter Value Units Cyclones Surface drag coefficient C d Air mass density ρ 1.2 kg/m 3 Threshold cat-0 typhoon v m/s Threshold cat-1 typhoon v m/s Threshold cat-2 typhoon v m/s Threshold cat-3 typhoon v 3 49 m/s Threshold cat-4 typhoon v 4 58 m/s Threshold cat-5 typhoon v 5 69 m/s - stands for dimensionless quantities. 25/ 18

32 ln(y) = F }{{} 1 + F }{{} 2 + F }{{} 3 + F }{{} 4 magnitude scaling core attenuation basin effect site conditions where F 1 = ln [(c 1arctan(M [ + c 2) + c 3) F] ] F 2 = 0.5ln (1 r/(c 4M + c 5)) 2 + 4(c 6cos(c7(M + c 8)) + c 9) 2 r/(c 4M + c 5) [ ( F 3 = 0.5ln 1 ) ] 2 r/r 1 + 4d 2 1 r/r1 F 4 = S 26/ 18

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