2006 8 ( 319 ) EDUCA TIONAL RESEARCH No. 8,2006 General,No. 319 [ ],,,,, [] ; ;; ; [ ], ( 200240) ;, ( 100875),,,,,,,, ( ), (),,,,,,,,,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),,,,,, 34
,,,,,,, 16, 20,,,,,,,,,, () 1.,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2.,,,,,,, 3.,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,, (),,, 35
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 11, (Markowiz),, ( ),,, : 2 = w n hi [ ri - E( r) ]2 i = 1, E( r),e( r) = n i = 1 hi r i ; ri i ; hi r i,, [ ri E ( r) ],,,, ( Semi - variance),,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, 2. 36
R1 Koenker G1Bassett 1978,,,, : ln w i = x i + i Quant(ln w i x i) = x i, x i, Quant(ln w x) :x, ln w : min ln w R k i - x i + (1 - ) ln w i - x i i : y i Ε x i i : y i < x i,,,d I F F = last - 1st, DIFF,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20 70, 1972,,,,NL SY1979 1990, :,( ),,, :,, ;,,,, ( ), t St, t, ( ), 37
( St ),, (power utility f unction) U s (. ), : U S ( t ) = 1 - t - 1 1 - (1),wt et, Zt = wt et, U w (. ) : - U w Z1t - 1 ( Zt) = (2) ( - 113739) w1 (010214) w2 ( - 010032), 1 -, > 0,, < 0,,, e0 ( - 014084) e1 ( - 011030) e2 ( - 010051),,, gλϖ : ln w t w 3 Ex per 2 w t + t = 0 w w + 1 ( S t ) + w 2 Ex pert + (3), w 1 ( S t ), w t i. i. d. N (0, 2 w ( st ) ), w t, 2 w ( st), : lnet = 0 + 1 S t + 2 Ex pert + 3 Ex pert 2 e + t (4), e t i. i. d. N (0, 2 e ( st ) ), e t, 2 e ( st ), : (3) (4), ln Zt = 0 + 1 (st) + 2 Ex pert + 3 Ex pert 2 + t, t = t w + e ti. i. d. N (0, 2 ( st) (5) 2 ( st) = 2 e ( st ) + 2 w ( st ), 2 ( st ),,,, ( 2 e ( st) ) w w ( st ) : ln w ( S t) = w0 + w1 S t + w2 S 2 t ln e ( S t) = e0 + e1 S t + e2 S 2 t ln 2 e ( S t) ln 2 w ( S t ),,, w0,,,,,,,,,,,,, 38
,,,, gλω (CPS) 6000 (1967 1994 ), 10 () 1967 1994 ( 1982 ) 24 881 2 1 080 8 10 33 923 1 1 283 9 10 17 823 8 446 1 9 18 325 7 525 2 9 20 886 5 637 4 9 11 846 10 583 3 13 17 675 9 714 5 14 23 646 3 951 7 10 22 437 4 1 453 10 14 18 665 6 790 6 12 : 11 : 2 1982,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 11, 2, 11, :,,,,, ( ),,, (),,,,,,,,, (trade - off),,, ( ) 39
,, -,, ;,,c b f -,c b b,,c f f, - b, f,,,, : (12) (12) ( 12) (12), (14) (14) (14), (16) (16) (16) (16), (18 19) ( 18) (19) (19), (20 21) (21) (21) ( ),, -,,,,, (), v f b a m, v,,,, -,, ;,,, ;,,,,,, A B C,, A X Y, X, Y, 40
,,, ;,, A B C, B,,b : Schultz, T. W. Economic Review. 1961, 51 (1),1-17. Becker, G. S. I nvestment in H uman Capital. American H uman Capital : A T heoretical and Em pi r2 ical A nalysis with S pecial Ref erence to Education. University of Chicago Press. 1993. Stacey H. Chen. Is I nvesting in College Education Risk y. Working Paper. 2001. Levhari, D. and Weiss, Y. T he Ef f ect of Risk on the I n2 vestment in Human Capital. American Economic Review. 1974. 64,905-963. Williams, J. Uncertaint y and the A ccumulation of H u2 man Capital Over the L i f e Cycle. Journal of business. 1979. 52 (4), 521-548. Buckinsky, M. Changes in the US w age st ructure, 1963-1987 : ap plication of quantile regression. Econometrica. 1994. 62,405-458. Kodde, D. A. Uncertaint y and T he Demand f or Educa2 tion. Review of Economics and Statistics 1986. 68,460-467. gλϖ Belzil, C. and Hansen, J. Earnings Dis persion, Risk A version and Education. Discussion Paper No. 513, J une 2002. Hogan, V. and Walker, I. Education Choice under Un2 certainty. Working Paper University College Dublin/ University of Warwick. 2001. gλωdavis Steven J., Willen Paul. Occupation - L evel Income S hocks and A sset Returns : Thei r covariance and I m plication f or Port f olio Choice. NBER Working Paper. 2000,7905. Individual Educational Investment Risk and Selection of Educational Assets Organization Zhao Hon gbi n & L ai Desheng Abstract : Individual educational investment is an important way of forming manpower capital. Due to the influence of many uncertain factors and the limitation of intrinsic attributes of manpower capital, it has become a kind of risk invest2 ment, with it s special risk connotation, risk type and attitude preference of different investors toward risk. The individual educational investment risk has close relations with the individual s number of years for education and occupation or spe2 cialty. The relationship between risk and the number of years for education is included in the equation of education and in2 come. Risk progressively decreases accompanied by the increase in the number of years for education. Different occupation has different income and risk. Choosing an occupation is a comprehensive choice of both occupational income and risk. Under the condition of risk, the combined selection of individual s number of years for education and occupation is an im2 portant model to realize the maximized effectiveness of individual educational investment. Key Words : individual educational investment, educational investment risk, the number of years for education, occu2 pation selection, educational asset s organization Authors : Zhao Hongbin, associate professor and Ph. D candidate at Higher Education Institute of Shanghai Commu2 nication University ( Shanghai 200240) ; Lai Desheng, professor and tutor of doctoral candidate at Economic and Industrial Commercial Management Institute of Beijing Normal University (Beijing 100875) [ :] 41