213 3 198 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 3213 Tot. No. 198 1 2 3 1. 121132. 17323. 11625 F84. 67 A 1-4149 2133-97 - 8 An Analysis of the Population Aging s Effect on Life Insurance Demand in China ZHANG Qing-jun 1 GAO Liang-liang 2 SU Ming-zheng 3 1. Financial Research CenterBohai UniversityJinzhou 12113China 2. Rural Development InstituteChinese Academy of Social SciencesBeijing 1732China 3. School of FinanceDongbei University of Finance and EconomicsDalian 11625China AbstractThe problem of aging population is becoming more and more concernedbased on an aging population as the research backgroundthis paper analyze the character and the present situation of the population aging in Liaoning province. We found thatas the elderly dependency ratio increased and child dependency ratio decreasedwhich implied that the population of Liaoning province aging quickly. Thencombining with the life insurance demand theorythis paper puts forward an aging population will increase residents demand for the life insurance product. 212-1 - 2 213-1 - 18 12C6 L11BJY12 213iilzkt7 1974-97
Connecting with the life insurance premium income products in Liaoning provincewe analyze the aging of population lead to life insurance demand increasing problems in the empirical researchand foundan aging population will increase the life insurance demandthe life insurance product development has a certain demand space and demand market. Keywordspopulation aginglife insurance demandpremium income 66 6 62 65 67 Fuchs 1 ~ Zweifel 2 Callahan Daniels 3 ~ 4 Guiso 5 Hagist Kotlikoff OECD 6 ~ 7 Sauter 8 Breyer 9 Cassa 19 2 1 11 12 13 98
Outreville 14 Bell 15 Hakansson 16 Kami Zilcha 17 18 Lewis 19 Sen Madheswaran 2 t rtct t πt πt= e it t e -iπ rπ- cπ- lπ dπ 1 i ls 1 πt T πt T f t = - φ' t φ t t n e -it πtftdt = - e -it πtφ'tdt = - { rπ- cπ- lπ e -is dπ} φ'tdt = e -is φπ rπ- cπ- lπ dπ t E t st= E t n = e -it φt= E[ - i + ρ n+π d π] [ ] t - i + ρ n+π d π rt- ct- lt dt 4 21 2 3 4 99
δ T Uc= e -δt u ct dt 5 1. 6 1% 65 7% 1 6 65 1 2 ~ 21 65 1 65 21 7% 22 ~ 21 12% 2 1 2112 3 2 2 3 2 ~ 21 3 1
2. 22 3 4 26 ~ 211 211 21 2. 58 49. 53 13. 3 5 211-3% 211 GDP 7 1 11 4 26 ~ 211 5 GDP 3. 1 1 5 26 ~ 211 LPI 2 PAR 3 DPI 4 IR 11
LnLPI = c + β 1 PAR + β 2 DPI + β 3 IR 6 2 Dickey-Fuller ADF AIC SC 5% 1% 1 1 ADF ADF ADF LPI - 1. 4755-2. 7711 *** - 3. 5516-3. 433 ** PAR - 1. 982-2. 7711 *** - 3. 4352-3. 433 ** DPI. 6242-2. 7711 *** - 4. 4529-3. 433 ** IR - 1. 5245-2. 7711 *** - 3. 4828-3. 433 ** * ** *** 1% 5% 1% 2 2 t P R 2. 9113 R 2. 867 PAR. 7514. 1468. 717961. 4998 DPI 1. 24817. 34137 3. 369591. 151 IR -. 195855. 13858-1. 418643. 258 C 4. 41734 1. 977342 2. 233979. 669 R 2. 911328 R 2. 866992 F - 2. 55495 14. 24893. 441688 D. W. 2. 461844 7% GDP GDP 12
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