2013 3 198 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 3 2013 Tot. No. 198 1. 200433 2. 1 2 2 210093 1978 1978 ~ 2008 VECM 1978 20 6 VECM C92-05 A 1000-4149 2013 03-0003 - 09 2012-11 - 19 2013-03 - 18 985 2011SHKXZD003 11CJL024 12&ZD074 1982 - The Long-term Dynamic Effects of the Dependency Ratio to National Savings XU Sheng-yan 1 ZHAO Gang 2 XIA Hai-yong 2 1. Economics School Fudan University Shanghai 200433 China 2. Business School Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Abstract China s high savings phenomenon is remarkable. Since 1978 with the process of China s rapid economic growth the level of national savings has risen dramatically and the dependency ratio has undergone tremendous change at the same time. Therefore exploring the link between the dependency ratio changes and national saving is an important aspect for the analysis of China s high national saving reasons. In this paper we use the 1978-2008 time-series data and the VECM model to study the long-term dynamic relationship between the population dependency ratio change and the national savings. We find that since 1978 the total dependency ratio decline cause the increase in national savings. The total dependency ratio change has a long-term effect on 985 3
national savings its effect last about 20 years but the major effect appeared within the first 6 years. As the total dependency ratio decline national saving will decrease high saving phenomenon is just temporary in China s developing process. Keywords national savings demographic factors dependency ratio dynamic effects the VECM model WDI 2008 34. 3% 19. 1% 34. 9% 50% 40% 1 2 20 60 1 ~ 5 6 ~ 7 1. 1978 1978 ~ 2008 73. 7% 34. 9% 65. 7% 23. 1% 7. 7% 11. 8% 1 2 1 1978 ~ 2008 % 1978 ~ 1994. M. 2006 1995 ~ 2008 2050 28. 8% 58. 7% 87. 6% 1978 8 2. Modigliani Brumberg life-cycle hypothesis 9 1 2 WDI 1970 40. 95% 1988 38. 52% 0 ~ 14 15 ~ 64 65 15 ~ 64 4
10 11 12 2 1978 ~ 2008 % 1 1978 ~ 1994 Leff. 1964 M. 74 2006 1995 ~ 2008 13-14 15 Ram 1972 ~ 1977 121 16 Wilson 17 Kelley and Schmidt 89 20 60 70 80 80 18 Higgins and Williamson 20 60 19 1952 ~ 1992 16 20 Kraay 21 Loayza 3. 5% 1% 2% 22 2 23 24 Cao 1953 ~ 2000 25 1969 26 27 Horiok and Wan 1995 ~ 2004 28 1989 ~ 2006 29 29 1998 ~ 2006 GMM 10% 30 31 5
1. reduced-form approach 1 nsr ydr odr tdr pgdp_78 1978 g_ pgdp GDP rsr repop gini_ r rcpop rpen_ p 1989 ~ 2008 1978 ~ 1988 r_ fis 2 VECM Sargen 1964 Davidson 1978 ECM Johansen and Hendry 1995 VAR VECM 31 VECM D. y t = β* y t -1 - bx t -1 + c 1 + r 1 * t + p -1 g i * D. y t -i + c 2 + r 2 * t 1 i = 1 β - bx t -1 p -1 g i * D. y t -i c 1 c 2 r 1 * t r 2 * t i = 1 2. 1978 ~ 1994 32 1995 ~ 2008 1978 ~ 1994 y t -1 6 1.
ADF PPERRON tdr rsr r_ fis 2. VECM rsr r_ fis OLS Stata stepwise 0. 2 lnnsr lntdr lnydr lnodr g _ pgdp lnpgdp _ 78 rsr lnrepop lnrcpop lngini _ r lnrpen_ p r_ fis 1 2 1 lnnsr 31 3. 669 0. 125 3. 493 3. 957 lnydr 31 3. 673 0. 276 3. 140 4. 185 lnodr 31 2. 180 0. 216 1. 765 2. 554 lntdr 31 3. 893 0. 184 3. 553 4. 299 lng_ pgdp 24 1. 584 0. 804-0. 580 2. 395 lnpgdp_ 78 31 7. 026 0. 701 5. 926 8. 339 rsr 31 0. 103 4. 545-13. 120 6. 424 lnrepop 31-0. 249 0. 063-0. 334-0. 171 lnrcpop 31-1. 232 0. 277-1. 720-0. 783 lngini_ r 31 0. 932 0. 183 0. 599 1. 203 lnrpen_ p 31-1. 636 0. 303-2. 360-1. 286 r_ fis 31-6. 718 5. 467-18. 598 3. 179 2 P = 0. 2 1 2 lntdr - 0. 359 ** - 2. 217 - lnydr - - 0. 317 ** - 2. 136 lnodr - lng_ pgdp 0. 021 ** 2. 463 0. 018 ** 2. 200 lnpgdp_ 78 0. 432 *** 4. 475 0. 454 *** 4. 553 lnrcpop - 1. 097 *** - 3. 880-1. 197 *** - 3. 764 lngini_ r 0. 326 *** 4. 972 0. 245 *** 3. 855 r_ fis 0. 003 ** 2. 609 0. 002 1. 387 rsr lnrepop lnrpen_ p _ cons 0. 371 0. 382-0. 069-0. 073 N 24 24 r2_ a - 0. 959 0. 959 Q p - 0. 1897 0. 0855 p - 0. 0139 0. 0217 p lag = 1-0. 1029 0. 0552 - t *** 1% ** 5% * 10% OLS 7
OLS 33 1 2 1 2 OLS 1 2 1 0. 36 2 0. 32 1978 1 2 3. VECM VECM VECM 1 VECM 2 VECM 1 VECM 2 AIC HQIC SBIC 1 1 VECM 2 1 VECM 1 LR Wald 3 VECM 1 VECM 2 2 LR p VECM 1 3 Wald p LR p VECM 2 Wald p lnnsr 0. 002 0. 000 lnnsr 0. 006 0. 000 lntdr 0. 001 0. 000 lnydr 0. 147 0. 067 - - - lnodr 0. 246 0. 164 VECM VECM 1 VECM 2 4 5 4 R 2 chi2 P VECM 1 VECM 1 D_ lnnsr 0. 509 29. 027 0. 000-0. 180 *** D_ lntdr 0. 554 34. 760 0. 000-0. 053-109. 080 0. 000 - D_ lnnsr 0. 579 38. 519 0. 000-0. 282 *** D_ lnydr 0. 622 46. 121 0. 000 0. 029-109. 080 0. 000 - *** 1% ** 5% * 10% 5 lntdr p lnydr p VECM 1 lnnsr = 8. 158-1. 148lntdr 0. 000 - VECM 2 lnnsr = 6. 03-0. 63lnydr - 0. 000 8
4 VECM 1 D_ lnnsr 1% D_ lntdr D_ lnnsr D_ lnnsr - 0. 180 0. 5 lnnsr = 8. 158-1. 148lntdr 1% 1. 15% VECM 2 D_ lnnsr 1% D_ lnydr D_ lnnsr 1978 D_ lnnsr - 0. 28 lnnsr lnydr 0. 28 lnnsr 5 lnnsr = 6. 03-0. 63lnydr 1% 0. 63% VECM 1 VECM 2 lntdr lnydr lnnsr 3 4 1 20 6 10 3 lntdr lnnsr 4 lnydr lnnsr VECM VECM VECM K r K - r 1 1 VECM i. i. d 6 ADF VECM 1 VECM 2 ADF p 0. 000 0. 000 6 J-B 0. 759 0. 736 9
7 - Lagrange-multiplier 8 VECM 7 Jarque-Bera P Skewness P Kurtosis P VECM 1 D_ lnnsr 0. 631 0. 455 0. 547 VECM 2 D_ lnnsr 0. 687 0. 544 0. 537 8 VECM 1 Lagrange-multiplier VECM 2 Chi2 df Prob > chi2 Chi2 df Prob > chi2 1 1. 551 4 0. 818 1. 389 4 0. 846 5 2. 406 4 0. 662 2. 584 4 0. 630 10 8. 250 4 0. 083 6. 177 4 0. 186 15 6. 086 4 0. 193 0. 992 4 0. 911 25 5. 860 4 0. 210 5. 453 4 0. 244 VECM 1% 1. 15% 1% 0. 63% 20 6 10 1978 ~ 2008 VECM 1% 1. 15% 20 6 1978 2010 2015 1 2050 1978 1978 1 http / /www. un. org /esa /population / 10
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