L"ώ,C-? E$-C-3+-ύ>'?,!"#$%ή' (")*%*+")ή!"ά$%&' 16 ( )*+,-.,ό0"* 1.έ3' 4%5*&ύ 78"8έ9:0 ;"4ώ0, =,-3>-,ά? @,ή4*5-? +*" 1B0*$$*C4*5"+ώ0 D3-5"4"ώ0 E8ό 5-1879 έ:? +*" 5-1913 ' "3-5"4ί* 5'? 35%,$ί0*? (G,%5*00"+ή? $ί,*?) *8έ0*05" 35-9-$ά,"- ή5*0 $4,86 *0ά 35%,$ί0*. Ό8:? >*ί0%5*" 35-!"άC,*44* 16.1, 4%5ά 5-5έ$-? 5-B E =*C+-34ί-B =-$έ4-b, 5-1920, ' "3-5"4ί* 5'? 35%,$ί0*? %ί.% 8έ3%" 35* $3,66. ;- 1926, $ίc- 8,"0 5'0 %8*0έ05*&ή 5'? 35-0 +*0ό0*.,B3-ύ, ' "3-5"4ί* 5'? 35%,$ί0*? %ί.% *8-+*5*35*I%ί 35* $4,86. 15-5έ$-? 5-B GJ=*C+-34ί-B =-$έ4-b, 5-1944, ' "3-5"4ί* %ί.% 8έ3%" 35* $4,04. ;- 1949 ' 35%,$ί0* %ί.% B8-5"4'I%ί 35* $3,69 +*" 5-1950 35* $2,80. ;- 1970 ' 35%,$ί0* K,"3+ό5*0 35* $2,40 9-$ά,"*. ;- 1990 %ί.% B8-5"4'I%ί 8%,*"5έ,:, 35* $1,78. ;- 2011 K,"3+ό5*0 35* $1,60. E+ό4' 4%C*$ύ5%,' 4%ί:3' έ.%" B8-35%ί ' 9,*.4ή, +*" 4ά$"35* 3% 8-$ύ 4"+,ό5%,- 9"ά35'4*. Ό8:? >*ί0%5*" 35-!"άC,*44* 16.2, *8ό 5-1953 έ:? 5-1974 ' "3-5"4ί* 5'? 9,*.4ή? ή5*0 30 9,*.4έ? 35-9-$ά,"-. )έ3* 3% 9έ+*.,ό0"*, ' *&ί* 5'? 9,*.4ή? *8έ0*05" 35-9-$ά,"- 4%"ώI'+% +*5ά 8%,ί8-B 5 >-,έ?, 4% *8-5έ$%34* 5-1985 ' "3-5"4ί* 9,*.4ή? 9-$*,ί-B 0* >Iά3%" 5"? 147,76 9,*.4έ? *0ά 9-$ά,"-. ;* %8ό4%0* 9έ+*.,ό0"* ' 9,*.4ή %ί.% έ8%3% 35-4"3ό 5'? *&ί*? 5'? *8έ0*05" 35-9-$ά,"-, +*" 5-1995 K,"3+ό5*0 35"? 237 9,*.4έ? 35-9-$ά,"-. Ό5*0 ' 7$$ά9* B"-Iέ5'3% 5- %B,ώ 5-2000, ' "3-5"4ί* 5'? 9,*.4ή? K,"3+ό5*0 35"? 365,6 9,*.4έ? *0ά 9-$ά,"-. )έ3* 3% έ0* *"ώ0*, ' *&ί* 5'? 35%,$ί0*? *8έ0*05" 35-9-$ά,"- 4%"ώI'+% +*5ά 8%,ί8-B 5,%"? >-,έ?. 1% 8%,ί8-B έ0* 5έ5*,5-5-B *"ώ0*, 25.,ό0"*, ' *&ί* 5'? 9,*.4ή? *8έ0*05" 35-9-$ά,"- 4%"ώI'+% +*5ά 8%,ί8-B 9ώ9%+* >-,έ?. =-"-? %ί0*" - $όc-? C"* *B5έ? 5"? 9,*4*5"+έ? 4*+,-.,ό0"%? %&%$ί&%"? 35"? 3B0*$$*C4*5"+έ? "3-5"4ί%?. L"* 0* *05"$'>I-ύ4% 8$ή,:? *B5έ? 5"? 4*+,-.,ό0"%? %&%$ί&%"? 35"? 3B0*$$*C4*5"+έ? "3-5"4ί%?.,%"άM%5*" 0* %8%+5%ί0-B4% 5'0 :? 5ώ,* *0ά$B3ή 4*? +*" 0* B"-I%5ή3-B4% έ0* 8$*ί3"- 4*+,-.,ό0"*? *0ά$B3'?. =,ώ5-0, 8,έ8%" 0* 3B48$',ώ3-B4% 5'0 *0ά$B3ή 4*? C"* 5"? 9"*3B09έ3%"? 5'? 0-4"34*5"+ή? 8-$"5"+ή? 4% 5- %8ί8%9-5"4ώ0, 5* %8"5ό+"* +*" 5"? 3B0*$$*C4*5"+έ? "3-5"4ί%?, +*", 9%ύ5%,-0, 8,έ8%" 0* %8"5,έN-B4% +*" 3% ά$$-b? 8*,άC-05%?, %+5ό? *8ό 5'0 8,-3>-,ά +*" 5' Mή5'3'.,ή4*5-? 0* έ.-b0 %8ί9,*3' 35"? 3B0*$$*C4*5"+έ? "3-5"4ί%?.
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)8-,-ύ4% 0* C,άN-B4% 5-0ό4-5'? 4"*? 5"4ή? :? %&ή?: j P US j = S $ P EU W W W W W W W W (16.1) ό8-b, j P US j P EU ' 5"4ή 5-B *C*I-ύ j 3% 9-$ά,"* 35"? (=E ' 5"4ή 5-B *C*I-ύ j 3% %B,ώ 35'0 7B,ώ8' S $ ' 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ή "3-5"4ί* 3% 9-$ά,"* *0ά %B,ώ. D3-9ύ0*4*, ' 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ή "3-5"4ί* %ί0*" - $όc-? 5:0 5"4ώ0 5-B *C*I-ύ j 3% 9-$ά,"* +*" %B,ώ *05ί35-".*. S $ = P j US W W W W W W W W W (16.2) j P EU 16.1.2 =,-$./0(#ί( 5:0 23$4(-5'+ώ0 7/0ά#9:0 ( I%:,ί* 5'? "1*23%/+ί/' -5% /6*7/1-")ώ% 23%ά+#5% 8,-K$έ8%" ό5" ' 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ή "3-5"4ί* 4%5*&ύ 5:0 0-4"34ά5:0 9ύ-.:,ώ0 "3-ύ5*" 4% 5- $όc- 5:0 %8"8έ9:0 5"4ώ0 5:0 9ύ-.:,ώ0. ;- %8ί8%9-5"4ώ0 4%5,ά 5'0 *C-,*35"+ή 9ύ0*4' 5-B.,ή4*5-? 35'0 +άi%.ώ,*, +*" 4%5,ά5*" :? έ0*? 35*I4"+ό? 4έ3-? 5:0 5"4ώ0 5:0 9"*>ό,:0 *C*Iώ0 +*" B8',%3"ώ0 5* -8-ί* 8%,"$*4Kά0-05*" 3% έ0* *05"8,-3:8%B5"+ό +*5*0*$:5"+ό +*$άi". Q*5ά 3B0έ8%"*, ' I%:,ί* 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0 8,-K$έ8%" ό5" 4ί* *ύ&'3' 5-B %8"8έ9-B 5"4ώ0 3% 4ί*.ώ,* I* -9'Cή3%" 3% *0ά$-C' B8-5ί4'3' +*" 5'? 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ή? "3-5"4ί*? 5-B 0-4ί34*5-? 5'?, +*Iώ? 4%"ώ0%" 5'0 *C-,*35"+ή 9ύ0*4' 5-B 0-4ί34*5-? 5'? 3% 3.έ3' 4% 5* B8ό$-"8* 0-4ί34*5*. E05ίI%5*, 4ί* 4%ί:3' 5-B 3.%5"+-ύ %8"8έ9-B 5"4ώ0 3% 4ί*.ώ,* I* -9'Cή3%" 3% *0ά$-C' *0*5ί4'3' 5-B 0-4ί34*5ό? 5'?. ( I%:,ί* 5'? "3-9B0*4ί*? 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0 (DE! ή PPP *8ό 5* *,."+ά 5-B purchasing power parity) :? +%05,"+-ύ 8,-39"-,"35"+-ύ 8*,άC-05* 5:0 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ώ0 "3-5"4"ώ0, ->%ί$%5*" 35-1-B'9ό -"+-0-4-$όC- Gustav Cassel, +*".,'3"4-8-"ήI'+% C"* 8,ώ5' >-,ά 35"? *,.έ? 5-B 20-B *"ώ0*. ( I%:,ί* *B5ή -B3"*35"+ά C%0"+%ύ%" 5-0ό4-5'? 4ί*? 5"4ή? C"* ό$* 5* *C*Iά. Έ53" 8,-K$έ8%" ό5", S $ = P US P EU W W W W W W W W W W (16.3) 3
ό8-b, P US %ί0*" 5- %8ί8%9-5"4ώ0 35"? (=E (3% 9-$ά,"*) P EU %ί0*" 5- %8ί8%9-5"4ώ0 35'0 7B,ώ8' (3% %B,ώ). ( %&ί3:3' (16.3) 3B.0ά *0*>έ,%5*" :? ' /:ό;3-. "1*23%/+ί/ -5% /6*7/1-")ώ% 23%ά+#5%. E8ό 5'0 (3), 8,-+ύ85%" ό5" -",BI4-ί 4%5*K-$ή? 5:0 5,"ώ0 4%5*K$'5ώ0 8,έ8%" 0* "+*0-8-"-ύ0 5'0 *+ό$-bi' 3B0Iή+'. S $,t S $,t 1 S $,t = P US,t P US,t 1 P US,t P EU,t P EU,t 1 P EU,t W W W W W (16.4) ( 3B0Iή+' (16.4), ό5" 9'$*9ή o,bi4ό? B8-5ί4'3'? 5-B 0-4ί34*5-? 4"*?.ώ,*? 3% 3.έ3' 4% 5-0ό4"34* 4"*? ά$$'? "3-ύ5*" 4% 5' 9"*>-,ά 5:0,BI4ώ0 8$'I:,"34-ύ 5:0 9ύ-.:,ώ0, *0*>έ,%5*" :? 1<#-")ή "1*23%/+ί/ -5% /6*7/1-")ώ% 23%ά+#5%. ( 3.%5"+ή "3-9B0*4ί* 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0 48-,%ί 0* "3.ύ%" *+ό4' +*" *0 9%0 "3.ύ%" ' *8ό$B5' "3-9B0*4ί* 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0, $όc: 9"*>-,ώ0 35* *C*Iά 8-B 3B48%,"$*4Kά0-05*" 35-0 B8-$-C"34ό 5:0 %8"8έ9:0 5"4ώ0 5:0 9"*>ό,:0.:,ώ0, +ό35-b? 4%5*>-,ά?, 9*34ώ0 +*" ά$$:0 8*,*Cό05:0 8-B %09%.-4έ0:? 8,-+*$-ύ0 *8-+$ί3%"? 35* %8ί8%9* 5"4ώ0 4%5*&ύ 5:0.:,ώ0. 15- K*I4ό 8-B -" 8*,άC-05%? *B5-ί %ί0*" 35*I%,-ί +*" 9%0 4%5*Kά$$-05*", 48-,%ί 0* "3.ύ%" ' 3.%5"+ή %+9-.ή 5'? "3-9B0*4ί*? 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0, 8*,ό5" 9%0 "3.ύ%" ' *8ό$B5' %+9-.ή 5'?. 16.2 =!$#'-#(5'+ή >4$-έ33'-< -5'% @/0(AA(3#(5'+έ%,-$5'#ί9% Ό5*0 3B09Bά3%" +*0%ί? 5' I%:,ί* 5'? "3-9B0*4ί*? 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0 4% 5-8$*ί3"- Mή5'3'? +*" 8,-3>-,ά?.,ή4*5-? 8-B *0*$ύ3*4% 35-8,-'C-ύ4%0- +%>ά$*"-, 5ό5% +*5*$ήC-B4% 35' %*+"1+/-")ή :7*1έ66"1. 35-0 8,-39"-,"34ό 5:0 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ώ0 "3-5"4"ώ0. 1ύ4>:0* 4% 5' 0-4"34*5"+ή 8,-3έCC"3', - 8,-39"-,"34ό? 5:0 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ώ0 "3-5"4"ώ0 %&*,5ά5*" *8ό 5-B? 8*,άC-05%? 8-B 8,-39"-,ίM-B0 5'0 8,-3>-,ά +*" 5' Mή5'3'.,ή4*5-? 35"? 9"ά>-,%?.ώ,%?. E? B8-Iέ3-B4% ό5" ' "3-,,-8ί* 5'? 8,-3>-,ά? +*" 5'? Mή5'3'?.,ή4*5-? 35"? (=E +*" 5'0 7B,ώ8' 9ί0%5*" *8ό, 4
s M US = L(Y US,i US ) W W W W W W W W W (16.5) P US s M EU = L(Y EU,i EU ) W W W W W W W W W (16.6) P EU ό8-b, M s s US, M EU %ί0*" ' -0-4*35"+ή 8,-3>-,ά.,ή4*5-? 35"? (=E +*" 5'0 7B,ώ8', Y US,Y EU %ί0*" 5-8,*C4*5"+ό E7= 35"? (=E +*" 5'0 7B,ώ8', i US,i EU %ί0*" 5* -0-4*35"+ά %8"5ό+"* 35"? (=E +*" 5'0 7B,ώ8'. 78"$ύ-05*? 5"? (16.5) +*" (16.6) C"* 5* %8ί8%9* 5"4ώ0 $*4Kά0-B4%, P US = s M US L(Y US,i US ) W W W W W W W W W (16.7) P EU = s M EU L(Y EU,i EU ) W W W W W W W W W (16.8) R" (16.7) +*" (16.8) 4*? $έ0% ό5" 4*+,-.,ό0"* 5* %8ί8%9* 5"4ώ0 8,-39"-,ίM-05*" *8ό 5- $όc- 5'? 8,-3>-,ά?.,ή4*5-? 8,-? 5' Mή5'3' 8,*C4*5"+ώ0.,'4*5"+ώ0 9"*I%3ί4:0 3% +άi%.ώ,*. E05"+*I"35ώ05*? 5"? (16.7) +*" (16.8) 35'0 %&ί3:3' (16.3) C"* 5'0 "3-9B0*4ί* 5:0 *C-,*35"+ώ0 9B0ά4%:0, έ.-b4%, S $ = M s US s M EU L(Y EU,i EU ) L(Y US,i US ) W W W W W W W W (16.9) ( (16.9) 3B0-NίM%" 5' 0-4"34*5"+ή 8,-3έCC"3' 35-0 (4*+,-.,ό0"-) 8,-39"-,"34ό 5:0 3B0*$$*C4*5"+ώ0 "3-5"4"ώ0. )ί* 4ό0"4' *ύ&'3' 5'? 8,-3>-,ά?.,ή4*5-? 35"? (=E, 8,-+*$%ί *ύ&'3' 5-B S, 9'$*9ή B8-5ί4'3' 5-B 9-$*,ί-B *8έ0*05" 35- %B,ώ. E05ίI%5*, 4ί* 4ό0"4' *ύ&'3' 5'? 8,-3>-,ά?.,ή4*5-? 35'0 7B,ώ8' 8,-+*$%ί 4%ί:3' 5-B S, 9'$*9ή *0*5ί4'3' 5-B 9-$*,ί-B *8έ0*05" 35- %B,ώ. EB5ό 3B4K*ί0%" 9"ό5" ' *ύ&'3' 5'? 8,-3>-,ά?.,ή4*5-?, 4% 9%9-4έ0-B? 5-B? 8*,άC-05%? 8-B 8,-39"-,ίM-B0 5' Mή5'3'.,ή4*5-?, -9'C%ί 3% *ύ&'3' 5-B %8"8έ9-B 5"4ώ0. )% 5' 3%",ά 5'?, ' *ύ&'3' 5-B %8"8έ9-B 5"4ώ0, 5
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!"ά$%&''& 16.1 ( )*έ,"*-.-/ 012."'ί&/!2,&%ί24 5ί%&/ 6.7%,ί8&/ $6,00$$ $5,00$$ $4,00$$ $3,00$$ $2,00$$ $1,00$$ $0,00$$ 1870$1872$1874$1876$1878$1880$1882$1884$1886$1888$1890$1892$1894$1896$1898$1900$1902$1904$1906$1908$1910$1912$1914$1916$1918$1920$1922$1924$1926$1928$1930$1932$1934$1936$1938$1940$1942$1944$1946$1948$1950$1952$1954$1956$1958$1960$1962$1964$1966$1968$1970$1972$1974$1976$1978$1980$1982$1984$1986$1988$1990$1992$1994$1996$1998$2000$2002$2004$2006$2008$2010$ 16
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!"ά$%&''& 16.3 012."'ί& 6.7%,ί8&/ ;&" 6=7.";ά ):ί:7>&?"'ώ8 6,00# 5,00# 4,00# 3,00# 2,00# 1,00# 0,00# 1870#1872#1874#1876#1878#1880#1882#1884#1886#1888#1890#1892#1894#1896#1898#1900#1902#1904#1906#1908#1910#1912#1914#1916#1918#1920#1922#1924#1926#1928#1930#1932#1934#1936#1938#1940#1942#1944#1946#1948#1950#1952#1954#1956#1958#1960#1962#1964#1966#1968#1970#1972#1974#1976#1978#1980#1982#1984#1986#1988#1990#1992#1994#1996#1998#2000#2002#2004#2006#2008#2010# Σχετικά#Επίπεδα#Τιμών# Ισοτιμία#Στερλίνας# 18
!"ά$%&''& 16.4 012."'ί&!%&='ή/ ;&" 6=7.";ά ):ί:7>&?"'ώ8 400,00# 350,00# 300,00# 250,00# 200,00# 150,00# 100,00# 50,00# 0,00# 1955# 1956# 1957# 1958# 1959# 1960# 1961# 1962# 1963# 1964# 1965# 1966# 1967# 1968# 1969# 1970# 1971# 1972# 1973# 1974# 1975# 1976# 1977# 1978# 1979# 1980# 1981# 1982# 1983# 1984# 1985# 1986# 1987# 1988# 1989# 1990# 1991# 1992# 1993# 1994# 1995# 1996# 1997# 1998# 1999# 2000# Σχετικά#Επίπεδα#Τιμών# Ισοτιμία#Δραχμής#Δολαρίου# 19
!"ά$%&''& 16.5 ( A%&$'&.";ή 648&,,&$'&.";ή 012."'ί&.-/ 6.7%,ί8&/ 2,5" 2" 1,5" 1" 0,5" 0" 1870"1872"1874"1876"1878"1880"1882"1884"1886"1888"1890"1892"1894"1896"1898"1900"1902"1904"1906"1908"1910"1912"1914"1916"1918"1920"1922"1924"1926"1928"1930"1932"1934"1936"1938"1940"1942"1944"1946"1948"1950"1952"1954"1956"1958"1960"1962"1964"1966"1968"1970"1972"1974"1976"1978"1980"1982"1984"1986"1988"1990"1992"1994"1996"1998"2000"2002"2004"2006"2008"2010" Πραγματική"Συναλλαγματική"Ισοτιμία" " 20
!"ά$%&''& 16.6 ( A%&$'&.";ή 648&,,&$'&.";ή 012."'ί&.-/!%&='ή/ 1,60# 1,40# 1,20# 1,00# 0,80# 0,60# 0,40# 0,20# 0,00# 1955# 1956# 1957# 1958# 1959# 1960# 1961# 1962# 1963# 1964# 1965# 1966# 1967# 1968# 1969# 1970# 1971# 1972# 1973# 1974# 1975# 1976# 1977# 1978# 1979# 1980# 1981# 1982# 1983# 1984# 1985# 1986# 1987# 1988# 1989# 1990# 1991# 1992# 1993# 1994# 1995# 1996# 1997# 1998# 1999# 2000# Πραγματική#Συναλλαγματική#Ισοτιμία#Δραχμής#$# 21
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!"ά$%&''& 16.8 Eύ*-1-.-/ 6=7.";ή/ Gή.-1-/ $"& )4%H:&I;ά A%2Iό8.& ;&" A%&$'&.";ή 648&,,&$'&.";ή 012."'ί& $/ Πραγματική Ισοτιμία Q $ Q $ 2 Σχετική Προσφορά RS 2 Q $ 1 1 Σχετική Ζήτηση RD' Σχετική Ζήτηση RD (Y EU /Y US ) 1 Λόγος Πραγματικών ΑΕΠ, Y EU /Y US 23
!"ά$%&''& 16.9 Eύ*-1-.-/ 6=7.";ή/ A%21J2%ά/ 1.-8 )4%ώ:- ;&" A%&$'&.";ή 648&,,&$'&.";ή 012."'ί& $/ Πραγματική Ισοτιμία Q $ Σχετική Προσφορά RS Σχετική Προσφορά RS' Q $ 1 1 Q $ 2 2 Σχετική Ζήτηση RD (Y EU /Y US ) 1 (Y EU /Y US ) 2 Λόγος Πραγματικών ΑΕΠ, Y EU /Y US 24
K"L,"2$%&Jί& Cassel G. (1921), The World s Monetary Problems, London, Constable. Fisher I. (1930), The Theory of Interest, New York, Macmillan. Frenkel J. and H.G. Johnson (1978), The Economics of Exchange Rates, Reading Mass., Addison Wesley. Krugman P. and M. Obstfeld (2012), International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson, London. 25