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ÍΒενιαμίν Ζάρκος
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1 - : :.. ". " SLS... a.komijani@cbi.ir mohammadnadali@yahoo.com

2 ..... :

3 ... : :.. :.. : ().

4 ( ).. :.( ) (.( ) ( ) (.( ) (.( :. ),( ( ) ). ( Edwards, Sebastian and Savastano, Miguel. (July 1999).

5 ..() : : (. : ( : (. ) : ( (....().

6 ... : (. : (. : (.., : » :.«1. Flanders(1978), Turnovsky (1984), Frenkel (1985), Black (1985), Lizondo (1985), Penati(1985), Haaparanta (1988), Mathieson (1990), Aizenman (199), Berg (000), Juhn (00), Bubula (00).

7 ... :.(IMF, 1997). (DME) ().. (O) (EME).. (EMU). (DME) ). (.. 1. Changing Pattern of Exchange Rate Regimes.. Major Currencies. 3. Developed Market Economies (DME). 4. Emerging Market Economies (EME). 5. Other Developing Countries (O). 6. European Monetary Union (EMU). 7. Currency Board Arrangements.

8 .... ( )...- DME EME O DME EME O DME : EME : O : () Source: Yagic Fahrettin,"Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing Countries", Africa Regional Working Paper, Scries No.16, April 001. ) : (...( ) 1. Crockett (1994), Eichengreen (1994), Obstfeld and Rogoft (1995), Summers (000), Eichengreen (000).. Fisher (001), Frankel and Others (000). 3. Orthodoxy.

9 .( ).... ().... ( ) Mundell- Flemming. 3. See for Example: Vaez-zadeh (1989)..().

10 ..... ( ) CP Yno inv ig Cg ip. nxno Yno=Cp+ip + (Cg + ig) + inv + nxno (). : ΔLog( Cp) = + α ΔLog( yno) + α Δ Log( P) + α Log( Cp( )) + α Log( yno( 1)) 3 α o ΔLog( p) p i i Δ () 1. Capital Account.. ().....

11 Log (yno(-)) Log (cp(-)).... ΔLog( ip) = β Log( yno( 1)) 4 β o + β ΔLog( yno) + β r + β Log( ip( 1)) + 1 ) r rr 1 3 () ( : r 1+ rr = () 1+ ΔLog( p( 1)). : E$I XNO$ + NSI$ Z$ nxno = γ + γ 1( )( ) () FP 1000 E$I FP ( ) FP. E $I XNO$ (). Z$ NSI$ ( ). ( ) (). 1. Error Correction.. Proxy...

12 ... (ig,cg).. (() ) (inv).-.. : Δ 4 Log( l) = δ o + δ1δlog( yno) + δδlog( p) + δ 3Log( L( 1)) + δ Δ( inv) () :. L K = K( 1) + ip + ig dep kdmio () dep K Kdmio. dep = + η k( ) + η Δ( yno( 1) + η dep( 1) η o : () : yno k Z $ E $I Log ( ) = θ 1 ΔLog ( ) + θ Δ( ) L L FP Δ K ( ) L. ().(() )

13 ().-. : M ( 1) ΔLog ( p ) = λ + λ ( 1) ( ) ( ) () 1inv + λ ΔLog M + λ ΔLog 3 P ( 1). M.-. (). : XNO $.E$I Log ( ) = μ0 + μ Log ( yno ( )) FP XNO $ ( 1). E$I ( 1) 100UE. FP μlog ( ) + μ Log ( ) FP ( 1) 3 P. E $ I ) XNO$. UE ( () (). ().. : z$.e$i Log ( ) = π + π 1( Log ( ue ) Log ( oe ) + π ( Log ( oe ) + FP () 100. FP Log ( )) + π 3Log ( cg + ig ) + π 4Log ( cp + ip ) + π 5ΔLog ( yno ) P. E $I

14 .... ). ( NFA$(- 1). Fr ( P 3 + SCA$ (-1)) Fr Fr NSI $ = P ) + P () ( ) + P 1( Fr : SCA$ 100 SCA$ = SCA$ (-) + CA$ () OE. CA$ : () NFA$(-1).Fr SCA$ (-1).Fr Fr NSI $ = P1 ( ) + P ( ) + P3 () P = PP + : 3 3 P4. () ().. : CA$. E$ I ( XO$ + XNO$ + NSI$ Z$). E$ I = σ o + σ 1 ( ) + σ( r Fr) () FP FP. : BOP $ = XO$ + XNO$ + NSI$ Z$ + CA$ ()..-. :

15 P( 1) ΔLog ( T ) = ϕ + ϕ1( ΔLog ( yno ( 1)) + ΔLog ( )) () Z $. E $I P ϕ( ΔLog ( ) + ΔLog ( )) + ϕ ( ( 1)) ΔLog T FP. () T. : XO $.E$I Yo = ( Oe1376 ). V 1000.FP Oe Yo () V. () : () Oe1376. E$I. V Yo = ( ). XO $ () FP () : AC Yo = AC.XO$ () : P.( Cg + ig Yo) DCg = DCg( 1) + ( T ) + NG () 100 NG Dcg..-.. :

16 ... M = NFA + DCg + DCP NFA M. DCg DCp ( ) : () NFA$ NFA = OE () (OE ) : NFA $ = NFA$( 1) + BOP$ () ( ). :. Log( r) = + ψ ΔLog( yno) + ψ ( Log( r( )) + ψ ΔLog( P( 1)) ψ o ().-. : 100uE 100M Log ( ) = W0 + W1Log ( ) + WLog ( XNO$) + P P W BOP$( 1) + W NFA$( 1) + W Log ( yno) ().- Y Y = Yno + Yo : ()

17 : () D. D ()... DD.. () D. D.. (). DD. D. D () D.

18 ..... ( ). D D DD.. () () () SCA$. (). (). Y. () ( ) Yo... Yo (). () (). () (). ( ) () () () Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). 3. Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR).

19 ().. : : (). ( a 1 =0 58) (. a 3. (-) (. ( β 1 = 3 44) β 4. = 1 β3 (. ( δ = 14, δ 0 ) 1 0 = - ( ) ( ) ( ). ( π = 0 3). ( π = 699, π 0 55) ( = 1. Two- Stage Least Squares (SLS).. Three- Stage Least Squares (3 SLS).

20 ... DW R.- t - - α º = α = α = - α = - α = SLS () - β SLS () o = 4737 β = - β = β3 = β = γ o = 93 9 γ 1 = γ = γ = δ o = δ1 = δ = δ 3 = δ = η o = η = η = 0 06 η = η = SLS SLS OLS () () ()

21 .- DW R t θ = θ = ( ) 1 λ o = λ 1 = ( 1410 ) λ = λ = μ o 3 = 611 μ = μ = μ = μ = π o = 1 38 π 1 = 0 38 π = 0 3 π = π = π = π = ρ1 = 0 4 ρ = 0 14 ρ 3 = ρ = ρ = σ o = σ = σ = SLS SLS SLS SLS OLS SLS () () () () () ()

22 ....- DW R t ϕ o = ϕ = ϕ = ϕ = Ψ o = 4008 Ψ = Ψ = Ψ 3 = Ψ = Ψ = w o 5 = 7 69 w = w = w3 = ( ) 5 w4 = ( ) w = SLS SLS SLS () () () ( ( ρ = 0 14) ( ρ1 = 0 14). (. ( w = 0 33) ( w5 = 0 43)

23 ().. 1. Dynamic Simulation.

24 ....- (-) Z$ YNO NSI$ XNO$ L UE ip T Dep R CP P CA$ NXNO (SRMSE) (RMSE) ( ) Base Run.

25 : ( ) OE s log ( ) = OE. OE b OE S.. (ppp) b o (). OE log ( OE s b P s FP ) = log ( P FP b s b ) : () 1. Purchasing Power Parity (ppp).

26 ... P P b s FP FP b... : OE s Ps FP s TB $ s log ( ) = 0 5log ( ) 0 5log ( ) () OE b Pb FP b TB $ b TB$ : XNO$ + XO$ + NSI $ TB$ = ( ) Z $ TB$ b TB$ s ().. ( ). ).( : OE s log ( ) = 5log OE b TB$ ( TB$ s b s ) () () (). (TB$ s >TB$ b ) :

27 OE s UE s log ( ) = log ( ) () OE b UE b UE b UE s..... " :.-. ()». ) «- ) (» (. «( ).- - ( )

28 ... () ( ). ( ).... ().. ().-,()...-

29 () ( ) ()... () () ).. ( ().

30 ) - (. ) (... ( )..

31 ... ( ).

32 ... ( )... ( )... ( )... ( )....()...( )...()....()...()...( ).()...()....()..()....().. Aizenman, Joshua. (199). Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment. IMF, Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No.4. Aizenman, Joshua and Frenkel Jacob. (1985). Optimal Wage Indexation Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Monetary Policy. The American Economic Review, Vol.75, No.3. Argey, Victor. (1990). Choice of Exchang Rate Regime for a Smaller Economy: A Survey of Some Key Issuses. IMF, Washington, Dc.

33 Berg, Andrew and Borensztion Eduardo. (000). The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies. IMF, Working Paper, No.9. Black, Stanley, W.(1985). Exchange Policies for less Developing Countries in a Wold of Floating Rates. IMF, Staff Papers, No. 3. Bleaney, Michael. (1999). Price and Monetary Dynamics under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes. IMF, Working Papers, No.67. Blundell _ Wignall Adrian and Gregory Robert, G. (1990). Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commidity _ Exporting Countries; Australia and Newzealand. IMF, Washington, Dc. Bubula Andrea and Ötker Robe Inci. (00). The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence from De acto Policies. IMF, Working Paper, No. 18. Chu Yun _ Peny, Lai Ching _ Chog, Hsiao Wen _ Tzong and Chang Wen _ ya. (1986). Exchange Rate Intervation and Capital Mobility Control. Journal of Development Economics, No.3. Edwards, Sebastian and Savastano, Miguel. (1999). Exchange Rates In Emerging Economice: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know? NBER Working Paper, No. 18, July. Flanders, June, M. and Helpman, Elhanan. (1978). On Exchange Rate Policies for a Small Country. The Economic Journal, Vol. 46. Flood Robert, P. and Marion Nancy, P. (198). The Transimission of Disturbance Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing. Quterly Journal of Economics, No. 14. Frenkel Jacob, A. and Aizenman Joshua. (198). Aspects of the Optimal Mangement of Exchange Rates. Journal of International Economics, No.13. Guidotti Pablo, E. (1988). Insulation Properties Under Dual Exchange Rates. Canadian Jourand of Economics, No. 4. Haaparanta Petti. (1988). Dual Exchange Markets and Intervention. Canadian Jounranl of Economics, No, 4. Hutchison, Michael and Walsh, Carl, E. (199). Expinical Evidence on the Insulation Properties of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate"The Japanes Experience. Journal of International Economies, No.3. Jadresic Esteban, Masson Paul, and Mauro Paolo. (1999). Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices. IMF, Washington, DC Juhn, Grace and Mauro Paolo. (00). Long _ Run Determiniants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis. IMF, Working Paper, No. 15.

34 ... Khan Aghevli, B., Montiel, M.S., P,T.(1991). Exchange Rate Policy In Developing Countries: Some Analytical Issues", IMF Occasional Paper, No. 78. Lipschits Leslie. (1978). Exchange Rate Policies for Developing Countries: Some Simple Argument for Intervention. IMF, Staff Paper, Vol. 5. Lizondo Jose Saol. (1985). Unifying Multiple Exchange Rates. Quoted in IMF and World Bank. Dec. Marston Richard, C. (198). Wages Relative Price and the Choice Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate. Canadian Journal of Economics, No.1. Mathieson Donald, J, and Rojas _ Suarez Liliana. (1990). Financial Market Integration and Exchange Rate Policy. IMF Washington, Dc. No. 16. Penati Alessandro. (1985). Monetary Targets, Real Exchnage Rate and Macroeconomic Stability. European Economic Review, No.8. Turnovsky Stephen, J. (1984). Exchange Market Intervention under Alternative forms of Exogenous Disturbances. Journal of International Economics, Vol.17. Yagci, Fahrettin. (001). Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing Countries. Africa Regional Working Paper, Series No.16,April 001.

35 ( )......( = ). BOP$ CA$ CP DCg Dep ip inv K L M NFA NFA$ NSI$ nxno P R rr

36 .... CA$ ( =) SDR.(=) ( ).(). SCA$ T UE XNO$ Yno Y YO Z$ AC Cg DCp DD DD D D D E$I FP Fr ig

37 ..().. Kdmio NG OE XO$

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