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2 ?+(23(7ώ4"/;0 4"%%(/5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 5E/ ('7(/(4'7ώ/ 25( "DE5"+'7ό - "?'7+&5(ύ/ 3ύ( 2-/@ή7"0. 1+ώ5(/, ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ '2(ύ5&' 4" 5; 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά, 7&', 3"ύ5"+(/, ; "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 7&' (' 3'"@/"ί0,+;4&5&<(+έ0 G+ί27(/5&' 2" '2(++(?ί&.?+(23'(+'24ό0 5;0 G+&,-,+ό/'&0 '2(++(?ί&0 &/&%ύ"5&' 4" Gά2; 4'& 3'&<+&44&5'7ή &/ά%-2; 25;/ (?(ί& ; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/, ; (?(ί& 2-/"?ά<"5&' 4ί& &+/;5'7ή 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ A91 7&' 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, 5έ4/"5&' 4" 5; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0,?(- 2-/"?ά<"5&' 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ A91 7&' 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. Lί&?+(2E+'/ή /(4'24&5'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, ; (?(ί& 3"/ 4"5&Gά%%"' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&,?+(7&%"ί -?(5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή &ύd;2; 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. Lί&?+(2E+'/ή 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/ ή 4"ίE2; 5E/ #ό+e/ "?ί2;0?+(7&%"ί?+(2e+'/ή &ύd;2; 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, ; (?(ί& ό4e0 2-/(3"ύ"5&' 4" -?"+5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. I &/ά%-2; &-5ή, ; (?(ί& (#"ί%"5&' 25;/ "?έ75&2; 5(-!"J/2'&/(ύ -?(3"ί<4&5(0 <'& &/('75έ0 ('7(/(4ί"0 &?ό 5(/ Robert Mundell 25'0 &+,έ0 5;0 3"7&"5ί&0 5(- 1960, 4&0 -?(3"'7/ύ"'?E0 ; /(4'24&5'7ή 7&' ; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή 4?(+"ί /&,+;2'4(?(';@"ί <'& /& "D(-3"5"+ώ2"' G+&,-,+ό/'"0 3'&5&+&,έ0 25( A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;. Lό/'4"0 4"5&G(%έ0 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, (' (?(ί"0 έ,(-/ E0 &?(5έ%"24& /& 4"5&Gά%%(-/ 7&' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, έ,(-/ &7ό4; 4"5&%ύ5"+"0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 25; G+&,-,+ό/'& 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& 7&' 5( A91 &?ό ό5' ('?+(2E+'/έ0 4"5&G(%έ0. O25ό2(, 7&@ώ0 ; ('7(/(4ί&?+(2"<<ίC"' 5;/?%ή+; &?&2,ό%;2;, 4ί& 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5; 25&3'&7ή &ύd;2; 5(- "?'?έ3(- 5E/ 5'4ώ/ (?%;@E+'24ό ; (?(ί& &/&25+έ#"' 25&3'&7ά 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 5'0 &+,'7ή0 -?(5ί4;2;0 5;0 '2(5'4ί&0 25;/?+&<4&5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. L&7+(,+ό/'&, 5( A91 "?'25+έ#"' 25;/?%ή+; &?&2,ό%;2; 7&' ό%"0 (' (/(4&25'7έ0 &Dί"0 (5'4έ0 7&' 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& "ί/&' &-D;4έ/"0 7&5ά 5(?(2(25ό 4"5&G(%ή0 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. Lί& 4ό/'4; 4"5&G(%ή 25; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή "?ί2;0 4"5&Gά%%"' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. Έ52', 4ί& 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/?+(7&%"ί 4"5&%ύ5"+; -?"+5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 &?ό ό5' 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή &ύd;2;. A-5ό έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5;/ 4"<&%ύ5"+; 4"ίE2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 &?ό 5;/?%"-+ά 5(- "DE5"+'7(ύ 5(4έ&, ; (?(ί& "D(-3"5"+ώ/"' 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 5;0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0 25( 2-/(%'7ό A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;. Έ/& 4"ίC(/?+&75'7ό?+όG%;4& 5;0 /(4'24&5'7ή0 7&' 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0 E0 "+<&%"ίe/ <'& 5; 25&@"+(?(ί;2; 5;0 ('7(/(4ί&0 &/&7ύ?5"' &?ό 5(/?"'+&24ό?(- 2

3 3;4'(-+<"ί 25'0 7-G"+/ή2"'0 /& 5'0,+;2'4(?('(ύ/ <'& G+&,-,+ό/'(-0?(%'5'7(ύ0 27(?(ύ0, 4" &?(5έ%"24& /& 3;4'(-+<"ί5&' 25;/ ('7(/(4ί&. Ά%%&?+(G%ή4&5& &/&7ύ?5(-/ &/&#(+'7ά 4" 5'0 3-27(%ί"0?+(23'(+'24(ύ 5E/ 3'&5&+&,ώ/?(-?+(7&%(ύ/ 3'&7-4ά/2"'0 25( A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;, 7&' &/&#(+'7ά 4" 5'0,+(/'7έ0-25"+ή2"'0 4" 5'0 (?(ί"0 5ό2( (' 3'ά#(+"0 3'&5&+&,έ0 ό2( 7&' ; /(4'24&5'7ή 7&' 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή "?;+"άc(-/ 5'0 ('7(/(4ί" ! "#$%&'(ή *ή+,-, (.' +% /-%0ύ2'% 3456%#-ώ$ "#$.&&.2ώ$ Ό?E0 "ί3&4" 25(!"#ά%&'( 12, ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 2" 4ί& &/('75ή ('7(/(4ί& &?(5"%"ί5&' &?ό 5έ22"+"'0 2-/'25ώ2"0: 5;/ '3'E5'7ή 7&5&/ά%E2;, 5; 3;4ό2'& 7&5&/ά%E2;, 5'0 "?"/3ύ2"'0 7&' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, 3;%&3ή 5; 3'&#(+ά 5E/ "D&<E<ώ/ &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ &?ό 5'0 "'2&<E<έ0. I 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;, "D '2(ύ5&' 4" 5; 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά (A91 25;/ ('7(/(4ί&. Y = C + I + G + X M R R R R R R R R (17.1 ό?(- Y "ί/&' 5( 2-/(%'7ό?+(Sό/ (A91, C "ί/&' ; 2-/(%'7ή '3'E5'7ή 7&5&/&%E5'7ή 3&?ά/;, 9 "ί/&' ; 2-/(%'7ή 3&?ά/; <'& "?"/3ύ2"'0, G "ί/&' ; 2-/(%'7ή 3;4ό2'& 7&5&/&%E5'7ή 3&?ά/;, X ; 2-/(%'7ή 3&?ά/; <'& "D&<E<έ0 7&' : ; 2-/(%'7ή 3&?ά/; <'& "'2&<E<έ0. Ό%"0 (' 4"5&G%;5έ0 (+ίc(/5&' 2"?+&<4&5'7(ύ0 ό+(-0, 3;%&3ή <'& 25&@"+ό "?ί?"3( 5'4ώ/. L&7+(,+ό/'& 5( 2-/(%'7ό?+(Sό/?+(23'(+ίC"5&' &?ό 5; 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά, ; (?(ί& 4" 5; 2"'+ά 5;0 "D&+5ά5&' &?ό 5(-0?ό+(-0 4'&0 ('7(/(4ί&0 (7"#ά%&'( 7&' "+<&2ί& 7&' 5;/ &?(5"%"24&5'7ό5;5& 25;/ 7&5&/(4ή 5(-0. I 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;?+(2&+4όC"5&' ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?;@"ί 4" 5;/?+(2#(+ά, 4έ2E?+(2&+4(<ή0 5(- "?'?έ3(- 5E/ 5'4ώ/, 5E/ 4'2@ώ/ 7&' 5E/ "?'5(7ίE/. I 7"J/2'&/ή?+(2έ<<'2; (G%. Keynes (1936, Hicks (1937 "?'7"/5+ώ/"5&' 25; G+&,-,+ό/'&?"+ί(3(, 7&5ά 5;/ (?(ί& 5( "?ί?"3( 5E/ 5'4ώ/ (7&' 5E/ 3"3(4έ/(. A?ό 5; 25'<4ή?(- 5( "?ί?"3( 5'4ώ/ 3"/ 4?(+"ί /&?+(2&+4(25"ί ώ25" /& 3'&2#&%ί2"' 5;/ '2(++(?ί& 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/, ;?+(2&+4(<ή <ί/"5&' 4έ2E 5(- 2-/(%'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. I 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά?+(2&+4όC"5&' 25'0 2-/@ή7"0 5;0 Cή5;2;0.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, G+&,-,+ό/'&, ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;?+(23'(+ίC"' 5( "?ί?"3( 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. A-5ή "ί/&' ; G&2'7ή 3'&#(+ά 5;0 7"J/2'&/ή0?+(2έ<<'2;0 &?ό 5; 4&7+(,+ό/'& 7%&22'7ή?+(2έ<<'2;. 65;/ 5;/ &?%(ύ25"+; 3-/&5ή 4(+#ή 5(- 7"J/2'&/(ύ -?(3"ί<4&5(0. 3

4 %-:'%4'-;ό= +,= "#$%&'(ή= >26ώ4'.=?.@ά$,= T"E+(ύ4" ό5' ; &;&<=&3ή 3'='$ά?<%/ C 2-/ά+5;2; 5(- 3'&@"2ί4(- "'2(3ή4&5(0. C = C(Y T RR R R R R R R R R (17.2 ό?(- T "ί/&' 5( ύp(0 5E/ %@$,?&3ώ$ Bό+<$. I 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ '3'E5'7ή0 7&5&/ά%E2;0 7&' 3'&@"2ί4(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&@ώ0 ό5&/ &/"G&ί/"' 5( 3'&@έ2'4( "'2ό3;4&, (' 7&5&/&%E5έ0 7&5&/&%ώ/(-/?"+'22ό5"+(. O25ό2(, ; ό5' <"/'7ά &/"G&ί/"' %'<ό5"+( 2" 2,έ2; 4" 5;/ ά/(3( 5(- 3'&@"2ί4(- "'2(3ή4&5(0, 7&@ώ0 4έ+(0 5(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 &?(5&4'"ύ"5&'. U+;2'4(?('ώ/5&0 5;/?+ώ5;?&+ά<E<( 5;0 2-/ά+5;2;0 (17.2, (' -?(@έ2"'0 &-5έ0 4?(+(ύ/ /& 2-/(P'2@(ύ/ 25; 2-/@ή7; 0 < C (Y T < 1 R R R R R R R R R (17.3 ό5' 5( ύd, =<$ "*"$;ύ%"<$ 9, "ί/&' G+&,-,+ό/'& "DE<"/έ0 (3"3(4έ/(, 7&' "D&+5ά5&' &?ό 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 5E/ "?',"ί+;2"e/ 7&' 5E/ "?"/3-5ώ/ <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 7"+3(#(+ί& 5(- 7"#&%&ί(-. V( ύp(0 5E/ Bό+<$ T 7&' 5E/ ;/4,%ί<$ ;'*'$ώ$ ό5'?+(23'(+ίc"5&' "DE<"/ώ0 &?ό 5;/ 7-Gέ+/;2;, 4έ2E?(%'5'7ώ/ &?(#ά2"e/?(- 7&@(+ίC(-/ 5; 3'ά+@+E2; 5(- 7+&5'7(ύ?+(J?(%(<'24(ύ. V( ά@+('24& 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 '3'E5'7ή0 7&5&/ά%E2;0, 5E/ "?"/3ύ2"E/ 7&' 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/?+(23'(+ίC"' 5; %@$,?&3ή ".Eώ+&' ;'*ά$/ E. A-5ή 2-/ή@E0 &/&#έ+"5&' 7&' E0 '*,++όb/%/, 7&' (+ίc"5&' E0, E = C + I + G = C(Y T + I + G R R R R R R R (17.4 L" 5'0 -?(@έ2"'0?(- 7ά/&4" E0 5ώ+&, ; 2-/(%'7; "<,ώ+'& 3&?ά/; &?ό 5( ύp(0 5(- 2-/(%'7(ύ "<,E+ί(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 Y, 7&' 5( ύp(0 5E/ "?"/3ύ2"E/ 7&' 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/, 7&' &+/;5'7ά &?ό 5( ύp(0 5E/ 2-/(%'7ώ/ #ό+e/ % /-%0ύ2'% 3456%#-ώ$ "#$.&&.2ώ$ A?ό 5;/ (17.1, ; 3'&#(+ά "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&' 3&?ά/;0 '2(ύ5&' 4" 5; 3'&#(+ά 5E/ "D&<E<ώ/ &?ό 5'0 "'2&<E<έ0, 3;%&3ή 5( &%,Fύ.&, =+"E,@%ώ$ %@$'??'.ώ$ CA. 65( &?%ό &-5ό ό5' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/ '2(ύ5&' 4" 5; 3'&#(+ά "D&<E<ώ/ &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ &?ό 5'0 "'2&<E<έ0 &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/. 4

5 A?ό 5;/ (17.1 7&' 5; (17.4 '2,ύ"' ό5', Y E = X M R R R R R R R R R ( (7"'4έ/(- /&?+(23'(+'25"ί ; 3'&#(+ά 5(- 2-/(%'7(ύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0 &?ό 5;/ 2-/(%'7ή "<,ώ+'& /& &/&%ύ2(-4" 5(-0?+(23'(+'25'7(ύ0?&+ά<(/5"0 5(- '2(C-<ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, CA = X M R R R R R R R R R R (17.6 ό?(- CA "ί/&' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/. T& -?(@έ2(-4" ό5' ( ό<7(0 5E/ "D&<E<ώ/ "ί/&' &+/;5'7ή 2-/ά+5;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 Q, 2-/ά+5;2; 5;0 Cή5;2;0 &?ό 5( "DE5"+'7ό Y*. I?+&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, '2(ύ5&' 4", Q = SP P * R R R R R R R R R R (17.7 O25ό2(, "?"'3ή 5& "?ί?"3& 5'4ώ/ P 7&' G+&,-,+ό/'& 3"3(4έ/&, (' 4"5&G(%έ0 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 "D&+5ώ/5&' &?ό 5'0 4"5&G(%έ0 5;0 (/(4&25'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, 4?(+(ύ4" /& <+άp(-4" 5; 2-/ά+5;2; Cή5;2;0 5E/ "D&<E<ώ/ E0, X = X(S,Y * R R R R R R R R R R (17.5 ό?(- S "ί/&' ; (/(4&25'7ή '2(5'4ί& 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. H?(@έ5(-4" ό5', X S < 0,1 > X Y * > 0 R R R R R R R R R (17.6 A/&5ί4;2; 5;0 (/(4&25'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0?+(7&%"ί G+&,-,+ό/'& &/&5ί4;2; 7&' 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 4"'ώ/"' 5; Cή5;2; <'& "D&<E<έ0, 7&@ώ0 7ά/"' 5& "<,ώ+'& &<&@ά 7&' -?;+"2ί"0 &7+'Gό5"+& 2" 2,έ2; 4" 5& &/5ί25(',& 5(- "DE5"+'7(ύ. H?(5ί4;2; 5;0 (/(4&25'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0?+(7&%"ί G+&,-,+ό/'& -?(5ί4;2; 7&' 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' &-Dά/"' 5; Cή5;2; <'& "D&<E<έ0, 7&@ώ0 7ά/"' 5& "<,ώ+'& &<&@ά 7&' -?;+"2ί"0 &7+'Gό5"+& 2" 2,έ2; 4" 5& &/5ί25(',& 5(- "DE5"+'7(ύ. 5

6 A?ό 5;/ ά%%;, 4ί& &ύd;2; 5(- A91 (Cή5;2;0 &-Dά/"' 5'0 "<,ώ+'"0 "D&<E<έ0, 4έ+(0 5;0 Cή5;2;0 5& "<,ώ+'& 7&' 5'0 "<,ώ+'"0 -?;+"2ί"0. ό5' ( ό<7(0 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ "7?"#+&24έ/(0 25( Dέ/( /ό4'24&, "ί/&' 2-/ά+5;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 Q, 2-/ά+5;2; 5(- "<,E+ί(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 Y. O25ό2(, "3ώ &?&'5"ί5&' '3'&ί5"+;?+(2(,ή. ό<7(0 5E/ "<,ώ+'e/ "'2&<E<ώ/ 2" "<,ώ+'( /ό4'24& (+ίc"5&' E0, M = M * /Q R R R R R R R R R R (17.7 ό?(- M* "ί/&' ό<7(0 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ 4&0 2" Dέ/( /ό4'24&. Ό5&/ &/&5'4ά5&' ;?+&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& (&/"G&ί/"' 5( Q, <'& 3"3(4έ/( ό<7( "'2&<E<ώ/ 2" Dέ/( /ό4'24&, (' "<,ώ+'"0 "'2&<E<έ0 "7?"#+&24έ/"0 2" "<,ώ+'( /ό4'24& 4"'ώ/(/5&'. A?ό 5;/ ά%%;, ( ό<7(0 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ 2" Dέ/( /ό4'24& &-Dά/"5&', 7&@ώ0 5& Dέ/&?+(Sό/5&' 7&@ί25&/5&' 2,"5'7ά #@;/ό5"+&, ά+&?'( "%7-25'7ά. A/5ί25(',&, ό5&/ -?(5'4ά5&' ;?+&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& (?έ#5"' 5( Q, <'& 3"3(4έ/( ό<7( "'2&<E<ώ/ 2" Dέ/( /ό4'24&, (' "<,ώ+'"0 "'2&<E<έ0 "7?"#+&24έ/"0 2" "<,ώ+'( /ό4'24& &-Dά/(/5&'. A?ό 5;/ ά%%;, ( ό<7(0 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ 2" Dέ/( /ό4'24& 4"'ώ/"5&', 7&@ώ0 5& Dέ/&?+(Sό/5&' 7&@ί25&/5&' 2,"5'7ά &7+'Gό5"+&, ά+& %'<ό5"+( "%7-25'7ά.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, 4ί& &/&5ί4;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&0 3"/ "ί/&' 7&@ό%(- GέG&'( ό5'?+(7&%"ί &ύd;2; 5(- ό<7(- 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ "7?"#+&24έ/E/ 2" "<,ώ+'( /ό4'24&. A/5ί25(',&, 4ί& -?(5ί4;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 3"/ "ί/&' 7&@ό%(- GέG&'( ό5'?+(7&%"ί 4"ίE2; 5(- ό<7(- 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ "7?"+#+&24έ/E/ 2" "<,ώ+'( /ό4'24&. N'& /& 2-4G"ί 7ά5' 5έ5('(, ; "%&25'7ό5;5& 5;0 Cή5;2;0 <'& /& "ί/&' 4"<&%ύ5"+; &?ό 5; 4(/ά3&, ώ25" /& "D(-3"5"+ώ2"' 5;/ "?ί?5e2; 5;0 4"5&G(%ή0 5E/ 2,"5'7ώ/ 5'4ώ/ 25(/ ό<7( 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ "7?"#+&24έ/E/ 2" "<,ώ+'( /ό4'24&. 65( 4&@;4&5'7ό?&+ά+5;4& &-5ή0 5;0 3'ά%"D;0 3"ί,/(-4" ό5' &-5ή ; 2-/@ή7;, 3;%&3ή ό5' ; "%&25'7ό5;5& 5;0 Cή5;2;0 <'& "'2&<E<έ0 "ί/&' 4"<&%ύ5"+; &?ό 5; 4(/ά3&, 3"/ "ί/&' &?&+&ί5;5;?+(7"'4έ/(- 4ί& &/&5ί4;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 /& "?'3"'/ώ2"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, ή 4ί& -?(5ί4;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 /& 5( G"%5'ώ2"'. 65;/?+&<4&5'7ό5;5& &?&'5"ί5&' 4ί& %'<ό5"+( &?&'5;5'7ή 2-/@ή7;, ; 2-/@ή7; Marsall Lerner, 2ύ4#E/& 4" 5;/ (?(ί& 5( ά@+('24& 5E/ &?ό%-5e/ 5'4ώ/ 5E/ "%&25'7(5ή5E/ 5;0 Cή5;2;0 <'& "'2&<E<έ0 7&' "D&<E<έ0 -?"+G&ί/"' 5; 4(/ά3&. 6

7 65; 2-/έ,"'& &-5ή 5;0 ό5' ; 2-/@ή7; Marshall Lerner '7&/(?('"ί5&', 7&' ό5' 4ί& -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 G"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/ 7&' &-Dά/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;, "/ώ 4ί& &/&5ί4;2; 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 "?'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/ 7&' 4"'ώ/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;. T& -?(@έ2(-4" "?'?%έ(/ ό5', "?"'3ή 5& "?ί?"3& 5'4ώ/ P 7&' G+&,-,+ό/'& 3"3(4έ/&, (' G+&,-,+ό/'"0 4"5&G(%έ0 5;0?+&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 "D&+5ώ/5&' &?ό 5'0 4"5&G(%έ0 5;0 (/(4&25'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, 4?(+(ύ4" /& <+άp(-4" 5; 2-/ά+5;2; Cή5;2;0 5E/ "'2&<E<ώ/ E0, M == M (S,Y = M *(S,Y S R R R R R R R R (17.8 H?(@έ5(-4" ό5', R R R R R R R M * Y > 0, M * S < 0 R R R R R R R R R (17.9 9ί4&25" 5ώ+& /& "D"5ά2(-4" 5(-0?+(23'(+'25'7(ύ0?&+ά<(/5"0 5(- '2(C-<ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/. CA = X M = X(S,Y * M * (S,Y S = CA(S,Y,Y * RR R R R (17.10 A?ό 5'0 (17.5 7&' (17.8, 7&' 4" 5;/ -?ό@"2; ό5' '2,ύ"' ; 2-/@ή7; Marshall Lerner, ; ( /"?ά<"5&', CA S < 0 R R R R R R R R R R (17.11 Lί& &/&5ί4;2; 5;0 '2(5'4ί&0 (&ύd;2; 5(- S "?'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, "/ώ 4ί& -?(5ί4;2; (4"ίE2; 5(- S 5( G"%5'ώ/"'. I -?(5ί4;2;?+(7&%"ί &ύd;2; 5(- ό<7(- 5E/ 7&@&+ώ/ "D&<E<ώ/ ("D&<E<έ0 4"ί(/ "'2&<E<έ0 7&@ώ0 4"'ώ/"' 5'0 2,"5'7έ0 5'4έ0 "D&<(4έ/E/-"'2&<(4έ/E/ 7&'?+(7&%"ί &ύd;2; 5;0 2,"5'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 "D&<E<ώ/, "/ώ 5( &/5ί@"5(?+(7&%"ί 4ί& &/&5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. 9?'?%έ(/, ; ( /"?ά<"5&', CA Y < 0 R R R R R R R R R R (

8 CA Y * > 0 R R R R R R R R R R (17.13 Lί& &ύd;2; 5(- "<,E+ί(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 "?'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, 7&@ώ0 &-Dά/"' 5; Cή5;2; <'& "'2&<E<έ0, "/ώ 4ί& &ύd;2; 5(-?&<7ό24'(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 G"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/ 7&@ώ0 &-Dά/"' 5; Cή5;2; <'& "D&<E<έ B4.6#64ό$'. /-%44%@ί. -+,$ D2%4ά D2.Eώ$ (.' F@,45-'ώ$ Έ,(/5&0 &/&%ύ2"' 5(-0?+(23'(+'25'7(ύ0?&+ά<(/5"0 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0, 4?(+(ύ4" 5ώ+& /& &/&%ύ2(-4" 5'0 2-/@ή7"0 <'& G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(?ί& 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/. I 2-/(%'7ή '2(ύ5&' 4" 5( ά@+('24& 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 "<,ώ+'&0 Cή5;2;0 2-/ 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/. H 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;?+(23'(+ίC"5&' &?ό, D = C(Y T + I + G + CA(S,Y,Y * = D(Y, I,G,T,S,Y * R R R R (17.14 I 2-/ά+5;2; 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 2-/ά+5;2; 5(- 2-/(%'7(ύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0, &%%ά ; "?ί?5e2; 5(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 25;/ 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; "ί/&' 4'7+ό5"+; &?ό 5; 4(/ά3& <'& 3ύ( %ό<(-0. 1+ώ5(/, 3'ό5' 4έ+(0 5(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&5"-@ύ/"5&' 25'0 &?(5&4'"ύ2"'0, 7&', 3"ύ5"+(/, 3'ό5' 4έ+(0 5(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&5"-@ύ/"5&' 2" "'2&<E<έ0. I 2-/ά+5;2; 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 "D&+5ά5&' &?ό 5'0 "?"/3ύ2"'0, 5'0 3;4ό2'"0 3&?ά/"0 7&' 5(?&<7ό24'( "'2ό3;4&, "/ώ "D&+5ά5&' &+/;5'7ά &?ό 5;/ 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& 7&' 5(-0 2-/(%'7(ύ0 #ό+(-0. 65;/ '2(++(?ί&, ; 2-/(%'7ή '2(ύ5&' 4" 5( 2-/(%'7ό "'2ό3;4&. T& '2,ύ"', Y = D(Y, I,G,T,S,Y * R R R R R R R R (17.15?+(23'(+'24ό0 5;0 '2(++(?ί&0?&+ί25&5&' 25( W'ά<+&44& (/ (+'Cό/5'( άd(/& 4"5+ά5&' 5( 2-/(%'7ό "'2ό3;4& (Y 7&' 25(/ 7ά@"5( άd(/& ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; D. H '2(++(?ί& G+ί27"5&' 25( 2;4"ί(?(- ; 2-/ά+5;2; 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 ( έ4/"5&' 4" 5;/ "-@"ί& 4" 7%ί2; 45. 9ί/&' &?%ό /& 3"ίD"' 7&/"ί0 ό5' 4ί& &ύd;2; 5E/ "?"/3ύ2"E/, 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/ 7&' 5(-?&<7ό24'(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 (3;<"ί 2" &ύd;2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 7&' 7&5ά 2-/έ?"'& 5(- A91. Lί& &ύd;2; 5E/ #ό+e/ (3;<"ί &/5ί@"5& 2" 4"ίE2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 7&' 5(- A91. 8

9 V' "?'?5ώ2"'0 έ,"' ό4e0 4ί& 4"5&G(%ή 25;/ '2(5'4ί&; Lί& &/&5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 (&ύd;2; 5(- S (3;<"ί 2" 4"ίE2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0, 7&@ώ0 "?'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, 7&' 4"5&7'/"ί 5; 2-/ά+5;2; D?+(0 5& 7ά5E.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, ό?e0 #&ί/"5&' 7&' 25( W'ά<+&44& 17.2, 4ί& &/&5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 4"'ώ/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 7&' 5( 2-/(%'7ό A91. A/5ί@"5&, 4ί& -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 (4"ίE2; 5(- S (3;<"ί 2" &ύd;2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0, 7&@ώ0 G"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/, 7&' 4"5&7'/"ί 5; 2-/ά+5;2; D?+(0 5& 7ά5E.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, ό?e0 #&ί/"5&' 7&' 25( W'ά<+&44& 17.2, 4ί& -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 &-Dά/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 7&' 5( 2-/(%'7ό A91.!&5ά 2-/έ?"'&, 4" 3"3(4έ/(-0 5(-0 "DE<"/"ί0?&+ά<(/5"0?(- "?;+"άc(-/ 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;, ό?e0 (' "?"/3ύ2"'0, (' 3;4ό2'"0 3&?ά/"0, (' #ό+(' 7&' 5(?&<7ό24'( A91, ; %@$1ή3/ &%,++,*ί' %=/$ '.,+ά '.'1ώ$ 2-/"?ά<"5&' 4ί& &+/;5'7ή G+&,-,+ό/'& 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ 2-/(%'7(ύ A91 7&' (/(4&25'7ή0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. A/&5ί4;2; 5;0 (/(4&25'7ή0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 4"'ώ/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 7&' 5( A91, "/ώ -?(5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 &-Dά/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή 7&' 5(?+&<4&5'7ό A91. I 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/?&+ί25&5&' &?ό 5;/ 7&4?ύ%; DD 25( W'ά<+&44& L?(+"ί /& "+4;/"-@"ί 7&' E0 ; 3'4*ύ?/ %@$,?&3ή Fή=/%/ '.'1ώ$ 2" 2,έ2; 4" 5; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. 5;0 7&4?ύ%;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 "D&+5ά5&' G"G&ίE0 &?ό 5(-0 -?ό%('?(-0 "DE<"/"ί0?&+ά<(/5"0. N'&?&+ά3"'<4&, 4ί& &ύd;2; 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/, 4"5&7'/"ί 5;/ 7&4?ύ%; 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 DD?+(0 5& 3"D'ά. N'& 3"3(4έ/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; &-Dά/"5&', %ό<e 5E/ &-D;4έ/E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/?(- &-Dά/(-/ 5; 2-/(%'7ή "<,ώ+'& 3&?ά/;. I?"+ί?5E2; &-5ή?&+ί25&5&' 25( W'ά<+&44& A/5ί25(',"0 "ί," 7&' 4ί& 4"ίE2; 5E/ #ό+e/, ; (3;<(ύ2" 2" &ύd;2; 5(- 3'&@"2ί4(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 5E/ 7&5&/&%E5ώ/ 7&' &ύd;2; 5;0 '3'E5'7ή0 7&5&/ά%E2;0, ή 4ί& &ύd;2; 5(-?&<7ό24'(- (3;<(ύ2" 2" &ύd;2; 5;0 Cή5;2;0 <'& "D&<E<έ B4.6#64ό$'. /-%44%@ί. -+'= G4,;.+.2%4έ= I 7&4?ύ%; DD 3"/ &+7"ί <'& /&?+(23'(+ί2(-4" 5( "'2ό3;4& '2(++(?ί&0. L&0 %έ"' ή5&/ ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; <'& 3"3(4έ/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. O25ό2(, ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& 3"/ "ί/&' 3"3(4έ/;. Ό?E0 "ί3&4" 25(!"#ά%&'( 15, ; G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(5'4ί&?+(2&+4όC"5&' έ52' ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?"ί 5; 3'"@/ή &<(+ά 2-/&%%ά<4&5(0, ώ25" /& '7&/(?('"ί5&' ; &7ά%-?5; '2(3-/&4ί& 5E/ "?'5(7ίE/. A/5ί25(',& 5& "<,ώ+'& "?'5ό7'&?+(2&+4όC(/5&' έ52' ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?"ί ; "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0. 1+(7"'4έ/(- /&?+(23'(+ί2(-4" 5&-5ό,+(/& 5( "'2ό3;4& 7&' 5; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& /& "/2E4&5ώ2(-4" 25;/ &/ά%-2ή 4&0 5'0 2-/@ή7"0 '2(++(?ί&0 5E/,+;4&5&<(+ώ/. 9

10 I G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(?ί& 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0 &?&'5"ί 5;/?+(2&+4(<ή 5E/ "<,E+ίE/ "?'5(7ίE/ ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?"ί ; "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0, 7&' 5;/ 5&-5ό,+(/; '7&/(?(ί;2; 5;0 &7ά%-?5;0 '2(3-/&4ί&0 5E/ "?'5(7ίE/, ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?"ί ; 3'"@/ή0 &<(+ά 2-/&%%ά<4&5(0. Ό?E0 "ί3&4" 25; 3'ά%"D; 15, ; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 25;/ "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 "ί/&', M s P = M d P = L(Y,i R R R R R R R R R (17.16 ό?(- 5( : 5ώ+& 2-4G(%ίC"' 5;/?(2ό5;5& 5(-,+ή4&5(0 7&' ό,' 5'0 "'2&<E<έ0. I 2-/ά+5;2; L 2-4G(%ίC"' 5; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 ; (?(ί& &?ό 5( 2-/(%'7ό "'2ό3;4& Y 7&' &+/;5'7ά &?ό 5( (/(4&25'7ό "?'5ό7'( i. N'& 3"3(4έ/;?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 M s 7&' 3"3(4έ/( "?ί?"3( 5'4ώ/ P, ; ( /"?ά<"5&' 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ "<,ώ+'(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 Y 7&' (/(4&25'7(ύ "?'5(7ί(-, ώ25" ; &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 /&?&+&4έ/"' 2" '2(++(?ί&. AύD;2; 5(-?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0 &-Dά/"' 5; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 <'& 2-/&%%&<έ0. L" 3"3(4έ/; 5;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 &-5ό &?&'5"ί 4ί& &ύd;2; 5E/ (/(4&25'7ώ/ "?'5(7ίE/ ώ25" /& 4"'E@"ί ; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 -?έ+ 5(7(#ό+E/,+"E<+ά#E/ 7&' /& &?(7&5&25&@"ί ; '2(++(?ί&,E+ί0 /& &%%άd"' ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0. &-5ή 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&' (/(4&25'7ώ/ "?'5(7ίE/,?(- &?(5"%"ί 5; %@$1ή3/ &%,++,*ί' =/ ".Eώ+&' '.,+ά E+ή4'=,, 3"/ "ί/&'?&+ά ; </E25ή 4&0 7&4?ύ%; LM. 1&+ί25&5&' 3'&<+&44&5'7ά 25( 7ά5E 3"D'ά 5"5&+5;4ό+'( 5(- W'&<+ά44&5( V&-5ό,+(/& ό4e0 4" 5;/ /& '7&/(?('"ί5&' 7&' ; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 5E/ 3'"@/ώ/ &<(+ώ/ 2-/&%%ά<4&5(0. A-5ή, 4" 5'0 -?(@έ2"'0?(- έ,(-4" 7ά/"' <'& (-3"5"+ό5;5& 5E/ 3'"@/ώ/ "?"/3-5ώ/ &?έ/&/5' 25(/ 7ί/3-/(, 3"/ "ί/&'?&+ά ; '3ά?@*=/ &%,;@$'4ί' =<$ "*&=,3ί<$. A-5ή &?&'5"ί ό5', i = i * Se S S R R R R R R R R R (17.17 ό?(- i* "ί/&' 5( "?'5ό7'( 5(- Dέ/(- /(4ί24&5(0, 7&' S e ;?+(23(7ώ4"/; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. I (17.17,?(- &?(5"%"ί 5; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 5E/ 3'"@/ώ/ &<(+ώ/ 2-/&%%ά<4&5(0,?&+ί25&5&' 3'&<+&444&5'7ά 25( 7ά5E 7&' &+'25"+ά 5"5&+5;4ό+'( 5(- W'&<+ά44&5(

11 I 5&-5ό,+(/; '7&/(?(ί;2; 5E/ ( &' (17.17?+(23'(+ίC"' 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ A91 7&' (/(4&25'7ή0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, ώ25" /& -?ά+,"' G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(?ί& 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0. A-5ή 2,έ2; &/&%ύ"5&' 3'&<+&44&5'7ά 25( W'ά<+&44& 17.5, ό?(- #&ί/"5&'?e0 ; 5&-5ό,+(/; '2(++(?ί& 25;/ "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 7&' 5'0 3'"@/"ί0 &<(+έ0 2-/&%%&<4ά5(0?+(23'(+ίC(-/ 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&' 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 (5;/ 7&4?ύ%; AA, <'& 3"3(4έ/; "<,ώ+'&?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, 3"3(4έ/& 3'"@/ή "?'5ό7'& 7&' 3"3(4έ/"0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5;/?(+"ί& 5;0 4"%%(/5'7ή0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. &-5ή 2,έ2; 2-/ά<"5&' 25( "?ά/e 7&' 3"D'ά 5"5&+5;4ό+'( 5(- W'&<+ά44&5( A?ό 5( W'ά<+&44& 17.5?+(7ύ?5"' ό5' ό2( -P;%ό5"+( "ί/&' G+&,-,+ό/'& 5(?+&<4&5'7ό "'2ό3;4&, 5ό2( /& "ί/&' 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, ώ25" /& -?ά+,"' '2(++(?ί& 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0. HP;%ό5"+(?+&<4&5'7ό "'2ό3;4& 2;4&ί/"' -P;%ό5"+& "<,ώ+'& "?'5ό7'&, ά+& 7&' -P;%ό5"+; '2(5'4ί&. &-5ή 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0 7&' (/(4&25'7ή0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, ώ25" /& 3'&5;+"ί5&' ; '2(++(?ί& 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0, &/&?&+ί25&5&' E0 ; 7&4?ύ%; AA 25( W'ά<+&44& V' 4"5&7'/"ί ό4e0 5; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0. Έ/&0?&+ά<E/ "ί/&' ; "<,ώ+'&?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0. 65( W'ά<+&44& 17.7?&+(-2'άC(-4" 5'0 G+&,-,+ό/'"0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 4ί&0 &ύd;2;0 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. A-5ή 4"5&7'/"ί 5;/ 7&4?ύ%; AA?+(0 5& 3"D'ά. N'& 3"3(4έ/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, &-Dά/"5&' 5(?+&<4&5'7ό "'2ό3;4&?(- &?&'5"ί5&' <'& /& -?ά+,"' '2(++(?ί& 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0, ή <'& 3"3(4έ/( "'2ό3;4& 4"'ώ/"5&' ; &?&'5(ύ4"/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. A-5ό 2-4G&ί/"' 3ί(5' 4ί& &ύd;2; 5;0 "<,ώ+'&0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0?+έ?"' /& 2-/(3"-5"ί& &?ό &/5ί25(',; &ύd;2; 5;0 Cή5;2;0,+ή4&5(0. I Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 4?(+"ί /& &-D;@"ί G+&,-,+ό/'& "ί5" &/ &-D;@"ί ; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 <'& 2-/&%%&<έ0 (&ύd;2; 5(-?+&<4&5'7(ύ "'2(3ή4&5(0, ή &/ 4"'E@(ύ/ 5& "<,ώ+'& (/(4&25'7ά "?'5ό7'& 7ά5'?(- (3;<"ί 2"?5ώ2; 7&' 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. A/5ί@"5"0 "ί/&' (' "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 &ύd;2;0 5(- "?'?έ3(- 5E/ 5'4ώ/, 4'&0 &ύd;2;0 5E/ 3'"@/ώ/ "?'5(7ίE/, 4ί&0 &ύd;2;0 5;0?+(23(7ώ4"/;0 4"%%(/5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, ή 4ί&0 &-5ό/(4;0 &ύd;2;0 5;0 Cή5;2;0,+ή4&5(0. Ό%"0 &-5έ0 (' 4"5&G(%έ0 4"5&7'/(ύ/ 5;/ 7&4?ύ%; AA?+(0 5& &+'25"+ά. N'& 3"3(4έ/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, 4"'ώ/"5&' 5(?+&<4&5'7ό "'2ό3;4&?(- &?&'5"ί5&' <'& /& -?ά+,"' '2(++(?ί& 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0, ή <'& 3"3(4έ/( "'2ό3;4& &-Dά/"5&' ; &?&'5(ύ4"/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& B4.6#64ό$'. /-%44%@ί. -5 ;ί. D$%'(+ή 8'(%$%;ί. ' 2-/@ή7"0 G+&,-,+ό/'&0 '2(++(?ί& 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0?+(23'(+ίC(-/ 5( A91 7&' 5; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. I G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(?ί&?&+(-2'άC"5&' 25( W'ά<+&44&

12 V( A91 '2(++(?ί&0 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&?+(23'(+ίC(/5&' 25( 2;4"ί( 5(4ή0 5E/ 3ύ( 7&4?-%ώ/ DD 7&' AA. 65( 2;4"ί( &-5ό 5( A91 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& '7&/(?('(ύ/ 5'0 2-/@ή7"0 '2(++(?ί&0 5ό2( 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ ό2( 7&' 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0. I '2(++(?ί& &-5ή "ί/&' 25&@"+ή. A/ ; ('7(/(4ί& G+"@"ί "75ό0 '2(++(?ί&0, ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή ά4"2& ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?ή2(-/ (',+;4&5&<(+έ0, "/ώ 5( "?ί2;0 ώ25" /& -?ά+d"' "Dί2E2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0?+(2#(+ά0 4" 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;. N'&?&+ά3"'<4&, &/ ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; "ί/&' 4"<&%ύ5"+; &?ό 5;/?+(2#(+ά, (' 3(-/ 5& &?(@έ4&5ά 5(-0 /& 4"'ώ/(/5&', &-Dή2(-/ 5;/?&+&<E<ή 5(-0, 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;,?+(7"'4έ/(- /& &?(7&5&25ή2(-/ 5& &?(@έ4&5ά 5(-0 25& 7&/(/'7ά 5(-0 "?ί?"3&. A/ ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; "ί/&' 4'7+ό5"+; &?ό 5;/ 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά, (' 3(-/ 5& &?(@έ4&5ά 5(-0 /& &-Dά/(/5&', 4"'ώ2(-/ 5;/?&+&<E<ή 5(-0 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;, ώ25" /& &?(#ύ<(-/ &/"?'@ύ4;5; 2-22ώ+"-2; &?(@"4ά5E/. L"2(,+ό/'&, "75ό0 &?ό 5;/?+(2&+4(<ή 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0?&+&<E<ή0?+(0 5'0 2-/@ή7"0 5;0 -?ά+d(-/ 7&' 4"5&G(%έ0 25( "?ί?"3( (3;<ή2(-/ 25&3'&7ά 5;/ ('7(/(4ί&?+(0 5;/?%ή+; &?&2,ό%;2;. 9ά/ ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; -?"+G&ί/"' 5;/?&+&<E<ή?%ή+(-0 -?ά+d(-/ &-Dή2"'0 4'2@ώ/ 7&' 5'4ώ/, "/ώ 5( 2-4G"ί "ά/ ; Cή5;2; -?(%"ί?"5&' 5;0?&+&<E<ή0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. O25ό2(, G+&,-,+ό/'&, %ό<e 5;0 &7&4Pί&0 5E/ 4'2@ώ/ 7&' 5E/ 5'4ώ/, &/ ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 3"/ "ί/&' "?&+7ή0, ; ('7(/(4ί& 4?(+"ί /& '2(++(?ή2"' 2" "?ί?"3&?&+&<e<ή0?(- -?(%"ί?(/5&' 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2; ' >@'@+ώ-5'= +,= I.(4%%'(%$%;'(ή= 9%&'+'(ή= 9ά/ ; ('7(/(4ί& '2(++(?"ί 2" "?ί?"3& 7ά5E 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, 25( G+&,-,+ό/'( &-5ό -?ό3"'<4& ; 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή 4?(+"ί /& 5;/ 4"5&7'/ή2"'?+(0 5;/?%ή+; &?&2,ό%;2;. T& "?'7"/5+E@(ύ4" 25'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 &?ό 3ύ( "'3ώ/ 4"5&G(%έ0 5;0 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0. L"5&G(%έ0 25; $,4&%4'=&3ή *,?&=&3ή, (' (?(ί"0 έ,(-/ E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5; 4"5&G(%ή 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0, 7&' 4"5&G(%έ0 25; ;/4,%&,$,4&3ή *,?&=&3ή, 4" 5; 4(+#ή "ί5" 4"5&G(%ώ/ 5E/ 2-/(%'7ώ/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/, "ί5" 4"5&G(%ώ/ 5E/ 2-/(%'7ώ/ #ό+e/. 65( W'ά<+&44& 17.9 "D"5άC(-4" 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0?+(2E+'/ή0 &ύd;2;0 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. A-5ή έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5; 4"ίE2; 5E/ "<,E+ίE/ "?'5(7ίE/ 7&' 5;/ -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. I -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 4" 5; 2"'+ά 5;0 (3;<"ί 2" &ύd;2; 5E/ 7&@&+ώ/ "D&<E<ώ/, ; (?(ί& &-Dά/"' 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;, 7&' έ52' 5( A91 &-Dά/"5&'. 9ά/ 5( A91 25( 2;4"ί( 1 G+ί27"5&' 7ά5E &?ό 5( "?ί?"3( 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, 4ί& 5έ5('&?(%'5'7ή?(- 5( (3;<"ί 25( 2;4"ί( 2, (3;<"ί 2" 4"ίE2; 5;0 &/"+<ί&0. 12

13 65( W'ά<+&44& "D"5άC(-4" 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0?+(2E+'/ή0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0, 4" 5; 4(+#ή "ί5" 5;0 &ύd;2;0 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/, "ί5" 5;0 4"ίE2;0 5E/ #ό+e/. I 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2; (3;<"ί 2" &ύd;2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 "<,ώ+'&0 Cή5;2;0, ; (?(ί& (3;<"ί 2" &ύd;2; 5(- A91. O25ό2(, 4" 3"3(4έ/; 5;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, ; &-D;4έ/; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 <'& 5( 4"<&%ύ5"+( ό<7( 2-/&%%&<ώ/?(- 2-/"?ά<"5&' 5( -P;%ό5"+( A91 (3;<"ί 2" &ύd;2; 5E/ "<,E+ίE/ "?'5(7ίE/, ; (?(ί&?+(7&%"ί &/&5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, ώ25" /& 3'&5;+;@"ί ; '2(++(?ί& 25'0 3'"@/"ί0 &<(+έ0 2-/&%%ά<4&5(0. L" 5; 2"'+ά 5;0, ; &/&5ί4;2; 5;0 '2(5'4ί&0 (3;<"ί 2"?"+&'5έ+E 4"ίE2; 5E/ 7&@&+ώ/ "D&<E<ώ/, 4" &?(5έ%"24& /& -?ά+,"' 4"+'7ή "D(-3"5έ+E2; (crowding out 5E/ "?'?5ώ2"E/ 5;0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0 25; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;. I ('7(/(4ί& '2(++(?"ί 25( 2;4"ί( 2, 25( (?(ί( 5ό2( 5( A91 ό2( 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& G+ί27(/5&' 2" -P;%ό5"+& "?ί?"3&. 6-4?"+&24&5'7ά, 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή /(4'24&5'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, ; (?(ί& 3"/ 4"5&Gά%%"' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&,?+(7&%"ί ά4"2; -?(5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή &ύd;2; 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. Lί&?+(2E+'/ή 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/ ή 4"ίE2; 5E/ #ό+e/ "?ί2;0?+(7&%"ί?+(2e+'/ή &ύd;2; 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, ; (?(ί& ό4e0 2-/(3"ύ"5&' 4" -?"+5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. I &/ά%-2; &-5ή 4&0 "?'5+έ?"' /& &/&%ύ2(-4" 5'0 "/3"/3"'<4έ/"0 &/5'3+ά2"'0 5;0 /(4'24&5'7ή0 7&' 5;0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0 2" "DE<"/"ί0 3'&5&+&,έ0 (' (?(ί"0?+(7&%(ύ/ &?(7%ί2"'0 5(- A91 &?ό 5( A91?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. N'&?&+ά3"'<4&, &0 3(ύ4" 5;/?"+ί?5E2; 5(- W'&<+ά44&5( I ('7(/(4ί& &+,'7ά G+ί27"5&' 25( 2;4"ί( 1, 25( (?(ί( 5( A91 "ί/&' 25( "?ί?"3( 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0 Y f, 7&' ; (/(4&25'7ή '2(5'4ί& 25( "?ί?"3( S 1. Xό<E 4'&0 &/&?ά/5",;0 3'"@/(ύ0 ύ#"2;0, 4"'ώ/"5&' 5(?&<7ό24'( A91 Y*, 7ά5'?(- (3;<"ί 2" 4"ίE2; 5;0 Cή5;2;0 <'& 5'0 "<,ώ+'"0 "D&<E<έ0, 7&' 4"5&7ί/;2; 5;0 7&4?ύ%;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 DD?+(0 5& &+'25"+ά. I /έ& G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(?ί& "ί/&' 25( 2;4"ί( 2, 25( (?(ί( ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 7&' 5( 2-/(%'7ό A91 "ί/&',&4;%ό5"+& (έ,"' 3;4'(-+<;@"ί 7-7%'7ή &/"+<ί&, 7&' 5( /ό4'24& έ,"' -?(5'4;@"ί, 7&@ώ0 ; 4"ίE2; 5;0 Cή5;2;0,+ή4&5(0 <'& 2-/&%%&<έ0?(-?+(7&%"ί5&' &?ό 5; 4"ίE2; 5(- A91 (3;<"ί 2" -?"+Gά%%(-2&?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 25;/ "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0, 4"ίE2; 5E/ (/(4&25'7ώ/ "?'5(7ίE/ 7&' &-5ή 4" 5; 2"'+ά 5;0?+(7&%"ί -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. I 4"ίE2; 5E/ "?'5(7ίE/ 7&' ; -?(5ί4;2; &-Dά/(-/ "/ 4έ+"' 5;/ "<,ώ+'& Cή5;2;, &%%ά &-5ό 3"/ &+7"ί <'& 5;/ &?(7&5ά25&2; 5;0 Cή5;2;0 25( &+,'7ό 5;0 "?ί?"3(. Wύ( "ί/&' (' 5+ό?(' 4" 5(-0 (?(ί(-0 ; 4?(+(ύ2" /& "D(-3"5"+ώ2"' 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 &-5ή0 5;0 3'&5&+&,ή0 25( A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;. ή5&/ 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2;, ; (3;<(ύ2" 2" /έ& 4"5&7ί/;2; 5;0 7&4?ύ%;0 DD?+(0 5& 3"D'ά, έe0 ό5(- "?'5"-,@"ί ; &+,'7ή '2(++(?ί&. 13

14 65;/ &+,'7ή &-5ή '2(++(?ί& ; 4"'E4έ/; Cή5;2; <'& "D&<E<έ0, %ό<e 5;0?5ώ2;0 5;0 3'"@/(ύ0 Cή5;2;0, -?(7&@ί25&5&' &?ό 5;/ &-D;4έ/; "<,ώ+'& Cή5;2;?(-?+(7&%"ί ; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2;, 7&' 5( A91 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& "?&/έ+,(/5&' 25& &+,'7ά 5(-0 "?ί?"3&. 3"ύ5"+(0 ή5&/ 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή /(4'24&5'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0 &?ό : 1 25( : 2, ; (3;<(ύ2" 2"?"+&'5έ+E 4"ίE2; 5E/ "<,E+ίE/ "?'5(7ίE/ 7&'?"+&'5έ+E -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 ; &?(7&@'25(ύ2" 5( A91 25( &+,'7ό "?ί?"3(?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0 (2;4"ί( 3 25( W'ά<+&44& &/5'3+ά2"' ; 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή 2" 4ί& 5έ5('& 3'&5&+&,ή έ,"' "?'?5ώ2"'0 <'& 5; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&.!&' 25'0 3ύ(?"+'?5ώ2"'0 5( A91 "?&/έ+,"5&' 25( "?ί?"3( 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. O25ό2(, 25;/?"+ί?5E2; 5;0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0 &-5ό <ί/"5&' 4έ2E &ύd;2;0 5;0 "<,ώ+'&0 Cή5;2;0, "/ώ 25;/?"+ί?5E2; 5;0 /(4'24&5'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0 &-5ό <ί/"5&' 4έ2E 5;0 &ύd;2;0 5E/ 7&@&+ώ/ "D&<E<ώ/, 7&@ώ0 ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& -?(5'4ά5&'?"+&'5έ+E. ' "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 3"ύ5"+;0 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή0 3'&5&+&,ή0 &/&%ύ(/5&' 25( W'ά<+&44& "ί -?(5ί@"5&' ό5' %ό<e &-D;4έ/;0 &G"G&'ό5;5&0 &-Dά/"5&'?+(2E+'/ά ; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0 <'&?+(%;?5'7(ύ0 %ό<(-0 (&-D;4έ/; Cή5;2; +"-25ό5;5&0. A-5ό 4"5&7'/"ί 5;/ 7&4?ύ%; AA?+(0 5& &+'25"+ά. A/ 3"/ -?ά+d"' &/5ί3+&2; 5;0 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0, ; 4"5&7'/;@"ί &?ό 5( 2;4"ί( 1 25( 2;4"ί( 2, 25( (?(ί( 5( A91 4"'ώ/"5&' 7ά5E &?ό 5( "?ί?"3( 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, 5& "?'5ό7'& &-Dά/(/5&' 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& &/&5'4ά5&', έ52' ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?ή2"' "7 /έ(- ; "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 7&' (' 3'"@/"ί0 &<(+έ0 2-/&%%ά<4&5(0. I 4?(+(ύ2" /& "?&/&#έ+"' 5;/ ('7(/(4ί& 25;/ &+,'7ή '2(++(?ί&, &-Dά/(/5&0 5;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, έ52' ώ25" /& '7&/(?(';@"ί ; &-D;4έ/; Cή5;2;,+ή4&5(0,E+ί0 5;/ &/ά<7; 4"ίE2;0 5(- A91, &ύd;2;0 5E/ "?'5(7ίE/ 7&' &/&5ί4;2;0 5;0 '2(5'4ί&0. ή5&/ 7&' ; "/3"3"'<4έ/; &/5ί3+&2; 5;0 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0. 9/&%%&75'7ά, 5( 4?(+(ύ2" /& "?&/έ%@"' 25( "?ί?"3(?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0 4έ2E 4'&0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0, ; (3;<(ύ2" 5;/ ('7(/(4ί& 25( 2;4"ί( 3, 4" &7ό4;?'( &/&5'4;4έ/; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& 7&' -P;%ό5"+& "?'5ό7'&. 65( W'ά<+&44& &/&%ύ(-4" 5'0 G+&,-,+ό/'"0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 4ό/'4;0 &ύd;2;0 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. A-5ή έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5;/ &7ό4& 4"<&%ύ5"+; -?(5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 2" 2,έ2; 4" 4ί& '2(3ύ/&4; &%%ά?+(2e+'/ή &ύd;2; 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. %ό<(0 "ί/&' ό5' ; 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0 "?;+"άc"' 7&' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή "Dέ%'D; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. I 5+έ,(-2& 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& -?(5'4ά5&', &%%ά 3;4'(-+<(ύ/5&' 7&'?+(23(7ί"0 4"%%(/5'7ή0 -?(5ί4;2;0, (' (?(ί"0 7ά/(-/ 5;/ 5+έ,(-2& -?(5ί4;2; &7ό4; 4"<&%ύ5"+;. A-5ό έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& /& -?ά+,"' 4"<&%ύ5"+; "?ί?5e2; 25; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;, 7&' 5( A91 /& &-D;@"ί G+&,-,+ό/'&?"+'22ό5"+( ό5&/ -?ά+,"' 4ί& 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0,?&+ά ό5&/ ; ί3'& &ύd;2; 5;0?+(2#(+ά0 14

15 ,+ή4&5(0 "ί/&'?+(2e+'/ή. 65;/?"+ί?5E2; 5;0?+(2E+'/ή0 &ύd;2;0 ; ('7(/(4ί& 4"5&7'/"ί5&' 25( 2;4"ί( 2, "/ώ 25;/?"+ί?5E2; 5;0 4ό/'4;0 &ύd;2;0 25( 2;4"ί( 3. Lί& 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; έ,"' 4"2(,+ό/'"0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 25(/?%;@E+'24ό, 7&@ώ0 25&3'&7ά 5( "?ί?"3( &+,ί2"' /& &-Dά/"5&', έ/& 4έ+(0 5;0 &+,'7ή0 -?(5ί4;2;0 /& &/5'25+έ#"5&', 7&' 5( A91 /& "?'25+έ#"'?+(0 5;/ &+,'7ή 5(- '2(++(?ί&. Vέ%(0, 25( W'ά<+&44& &/&%ύ(-4" 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 4ό/'4;0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0. Lί& 4ό/'4; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2;?+(7&%"ί 4"<&%ύ5"+; &/&5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 &?ό ό5' 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή, 7&@ώ0 "?;+"άc"' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 7&' <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή "Dέ%'D; 5;0 '2(5'4ί&0. Έ52', (' "?'?5ώ2"'0 5;0 25; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; 7&' 25( 2-/(%'7ό A91 "ί/&' 4'7+ό5"+"0 &?ό ό5' (' "?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 &/5ί25(',;0?+(2E+'/ή0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 "?έ75&2;0. 65;/?"+ί?5E2; 3"?(- 25;/ '2(++(?ί&0 5( A91 ή5&/ 25( "?ί?"3( 5;0?%ή+(-0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, 4ί& 4ό/'4; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2;?+(7&%"ί 5ό2( 4"<ά%; -?"+5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, ώ25" /& 4;/ -?ά+,"' 5"%'7ά 7&44ί& "?ί?5e2; 25; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; "#;@54ά-;.+. 65o 7"#ά%&'( &-5ό "?'7"/5+E@ή7&4" 25( G+&,-,+ό/'(?+(23'(+'24ό 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. I &/ά%-2ή 4&0 G&2ί25;7" 25;/ -?ό@"2; ό5' G+&,-,+ό/'& 5( "?ί?"3( 5'4ώ/ "ί/&' 3"3(4έ/(, 7&@ώ0 ;?+(2&+4(<ή 5E/ 5'4ώ/ "ί/&' 4ί& 2,"5'7ά &+<ή 7&' 25&3'&7ή 3'&3'7&2ί&. I -?ό@"2; &-5ή &?(5"%"ί 5; Gά2; 5;0!"J/2'&/ή0?+(2έ<<'2;0 25; 4&7+(('7(/(4'7ή. A-5ό?(- "D'2(++(?"ί 5;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ ό5&/ 5( "?ί?"3( 5'4ώ/ 3"/?+(2&+4όC"5&' ά4"2& "ί/&' 4"5&G(%έ0 25( 2-/(%'7ό A91, ώ25" ; 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/ /& '2(ύ5&' 4" 5; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2;. 65;/!"J/2'&/ή?+(2έ<<'2;, (' 4"5&G(%έ0 25; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; "ί/&' "7"ί/"0?(-?+(23'(+ίC(-/ G+&,-,+ό/'& 5( "?ί?"3( 5(- 2-/(%'7(ύ A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. 6" &/5ί@"2; 4" 5( "?ί?"3( 5'4ώ/, -?(@έ2&4" ό5' 5& "?'5ό7'& 7&' ; 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&?+(2&+4όC(/5&' ά4"2&, ώ25" /& "D'2(++(?ή2(-/ 5;/ "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 7&' 5'0 3'"@/"ί0,+;4&5&<(+έ0. W"ίD&4" ό5' ; G+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(?ί& 4'&0 &/('75ή0 ('7(/(4ί&0 %&4Gά/"',ώ+& 25( "?ί?"3( 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 ό?(- - 3"3(4έ/(- 5(- "?'?έ3(- 5'4ώ/, 5;0?+(23(7ώ4"/;0 4"%%(/5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 5E/ ('7(/(4'7ώ/ 2-/@;7ώ/ 25( "DE5"+'7ό - ; 2-/(%'7ή Cή5;2; '2(ύ5&' 4" 5; 2-/(%'7ή?+(2#(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/, 7&' ; "<,ώ+'& &<(+ά,+ή4&5(0 7&' (' 3'"@/"ί0,+;4&5&<(+έ0 G+ί27(/5&' 2" 2-/",ή '2(++(?ί&.?+(23'(+'24ό0 5;0 G+&,-,+ό/'&0 '2(++(?ί&0 &/&%ύ"5&' 4" Gά2; 4'& 3'&<+&44&5'7ή &/ά%-2; 25;/ (?(ί& ; 2-/@ή7; '2(++(?ί&0 25;/ &<(+ά &<&@ώ/ 7&' -?;+"2'ώ/, ; (?(ί& 2-/"?ά<"5&' 4ί& &+/;5'7ή 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ A91 7&' 15

16 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, 5έ4/"5&' 4" 5; '2(++(?ί&0 25'0,+;4&5&<(+έ0,?(- 2-/"?ά<"5&' 2,έ2; 4"5&Dύ A91 7&' 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. Lί&?+(2E+'/ή /(4'24&5'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, ; (?(ί& 3"/ 4"5&Gά%%"' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&,?+(7&%"ί -?(5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 7&' 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή &ύd;2; 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0. Lί&?+(2E+'/ή 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή "?έ75&2; (&ύd;2; 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/ ή 4"ίE2; 5E/ #ό+e/ "?ί2;0?+(7&%"ί?+(2e+'/ή &ύd;2; 5(- A91 7&' 5;0 &?&2,ό%;2;0, ; (?(ί& ό4e0 2-/(3"ύ"5&' 4" -?"+5ί4;2; 5;0 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. I &/ά%-2; &-5ή, ; (?(ί& (#"ί%"5&' 25;/ "?έ75&2; 5(-!"J/2'&/(ύ -?(3"ί<4&5(0 <'& &/('75έ0 ('7(/(4ί"0 &?ό 5(/ Robert Mundell 25'0 &+,έ0 5;0 3"7&"5ί&0 5(- 1960, 4&0 -?(3"'7/ύ"'?E0 ; /(4'24&5'7ή 7&' ; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή 4?(+"ί /&,+;2'4(?(';@"ί <'& /& "D(-3"5"+ώ2"' G+&,-,+ό/'"0 3'&5&+&,έ0 25( A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;. Lό/'4"0 4"5&G(%έ0 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, (' (?(ί"0 έ,(-/ E0 &?(5έ%"24& /& 4"5&Gά%%(-/ 7&' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&, έ,(-/ &7ό4; 4"<&%ύ5"+"0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 25; G+&,-,+ό/'& 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& 7&' 5( A91 &?ό ό,5' ('?+(2E+'/έ0 4"5&G(%έ0. O25ό2(, 7&@ώ0 ; ('7(/(4ί&?+(2"<<ίC"' 5;/?%ή+; &?&2,ό%;2;, 4ί& 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; 25;/?+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5; 25&3'&7ή &ύd;2; 5(- "?'?έ3(- 5E/ 5'4ώ/ (?%;@E+'24ό ; (?(ί& &/&25+έ#"' 25&3'&7ά 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 5'0 &+,'7ή0 -?(5ί4;2;0 5;0 '2(5'4ί&0 25;/?+&<4&5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. L&7+(,+ό/'&, 5( A91 "?'25+έ#"' 25;/?%ή+; &?&2,ό%;2; 7&' ό%"0 (' (/(4&25'7έ0 &Dί"0 (5'4έ0 7&' 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& "ί/&' &-D;4έ/"0 7&5ά 5(?(2(25ό 4"5&G(%ή0 5;0?+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. Lί& 4ό/'4; 4"5&G(%ή 25; 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή "?ί2;0 4"5&Gά%%"' 5'0?+(23(7ί"0 <'& 5; 4"%%(/5'7ή 2-/&%%&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί&. Έ52', 4ί& 4ό/'4; &ύd;2; 5E/ 3;4(2ίE/ 3&?&/ώ/?+(7&%"ί 4"5&%ύ5"+; -?"+5ί4;2; 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 &?ό ό5' 4ί&?+(2E+'/ή &ύd;2;. A-5ό έ,"' E0 &?(5έ%"24& 5;/ 4"<&%ύ5"+; 4"ίE2; 5;0 2-/(%'7ή0 Cή5;2;0 &?ό 5;/?%"-+ά 5(- "DE5"+'7(ύ 5(4έ&, ; (?(ί& "D(-3"5"+ώ/"' 5'0 "?'?5ώ2"'0 5;0 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0 25( 2-/(%'7ό A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;. Έ/& 4"ίC(/?+&75'7ό?+όG%;4& 5;0 /(4'24&5'7ή0 7&' 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή0?(%'5'7ή0 E0 "+<&%"ίe/ <'& 5; 25&@"+(?(ί;2; 5;0 ('7(/(4ί&0 &/&7ύ?5"' &?ό 5(/?"'+&24ό?(- 3;4'(-+<"ί 25'0 7-G"+/ή2"'0 /& 5'0,+;2'4(?('(ύ/ <'& G+&,-,+ό/'(-0?(%'5'7(ύ0 27(?(ύ0, 4" &?(5έ%"24& /& 3;4'(-+<"ί5&' 4ί&?%;@E+'25'7ή?+(7&5ά%;P; 25;/ ('7(/(4ί&. Ά%%&?+(G%ή4&5& &/&7ύ?5(-/ &/&#(+'7ά 4" 5'0 3-27(%ί"0?+(23'(+'24(ύ 5E/ 3'&5&+&,ώ/?(-?+(7&%(ύ/ 3'&7-4ά/2"'0 25( A91 7&' 5;/ &?&2,ό%;2;, 7&@ώ0 7&' &/&#(+'7ά 4" 5'0,+(/'7έ0-25"+ή2"'0 4" 5'0 (?(ί"0 5ό2( (' 3'ά#(+"0 3'&5&+&,έ0 ό2( 7&' ; /(4'24&5'7ή 7&' 3;4(2'(/(4'7ή?(%'5'7ή "?;+"άc(-/ 5'0 ('7(/(4ί"0. 16

17 W'ά<+&44& 17.1 I 6-/(%'7ή Yή5;2; 7&' ( *+&,-,+ό/'(0 1+(23'(+'24ό0 5(- A91 Συνολικη Ζήτηση D D=Y D(I,G,T,S,Y * D 1 45 o Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 17

18 W'ά<+&44& 17.2 L"5&G(%έ0 25;/ =2(5'4ί&, 6-/(%'7ή Yή5;2; 7&' A91 Συνολικη Ζήτηση D D 3 3 D=Y D(S 3 Υποτίµηση D(S 1 D 1 1 Ανατίµηση D(S 2 D 2 2 Y 2 Y 1 Y 3 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 18

19 W'ά<+&44& 17.3 A91, 6-/&%%&<4&5'7ή =2(5'4ί& 7&' 6-/ά+5;2; 6-/(%'7ή0 Yή5;2;0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S S 2 2 S 1 1 S 3 3 DD Y 2 Y 1 Y 3 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 19

20 W'ά<+&44& 17.4 W;4ό2'"0 W&?ά/"0 7&' L"5&7'/ή2"'0 25; 6-/ά+5;2; 6-/(%'7ή0 Yή5;2;0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S S DD(G 2 DD(G 1 Y 1 Y 2 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 20

21 W'ά<+&44& /&%%&<4&5'7ή =2(5'4ί&, 9?'5ό7'& 7&' =2(++(?ί& 25'0 U+;4&5&<(+έ0 S AA S 2 S 1 S 3 45 o S S 2 S 1 S 3 Y 3 Y 1 Y 2 Y i 3 i 1 ι*-(s e -S/S Διεθνής Αγορά Συναλλάγµατος i i 2 Εγχώρια Αγορά Χρήµατος LM(M s /P 21

22 W'ά<+&44& 17.6 A91, 6-/&%%&<4&5'7ή =2(5'4ί& 7&' =2(++(?ί& 25'0 U+;4&5&<(+έ0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA S 2 S 1 1 S 3 Y 3 Y 1 Y 2 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 22

23 W'ά<+&44& 17.7 L"5&G(%έ0 25;/ 1+(2#(+ά U+ή4&5(0 7&' L"5&7'/ή2"'0 5;0 =2(++(?ί&0 5E/ U+;4&5&<(+ώ/ Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA(M 1 AA(M 2 S Y 1 Y 2 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 23

24 W'ά<+&44& 17.8 A91, 6-/&%%&<4&5'7ή =2(5'4ί& 7&' *+&,-,+ό/'& =2(++(?ί& 2" 4ί& A/('75ή '7(/(4ί& Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA S 1 1 DD Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 24

25 W'ά<+&44& ?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 1+(2E+'/ή0 AύD;2;0 5;0 1+(2#(+ά0 U+ή4&5(0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA(M 1 AA(M 2 S S 2 DD Y 1 Y 2 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 25

26 W'ά<+&44& ?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 1+(2E+'/ή0 W;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 9?έ75&2;0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA S 2 2 S 1 1 DD(G 2 DD(G 1 Y 1 Y 2 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 26

27 W'ά<+&44& I 9?'3ίED; 5;0 1%ή+(-0 A?&2,ό%;2;0: L"ίE2; 5;0 1&<7ό24'&0 Yή5;2;0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA(M 1 AA(M 2 S 1 1 S 2 2 S 3 3 DD DD' Y 2 Y f Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 27

28 W'ά<+&44& I 9?'3ίED; 5;0 1%ή+(-0 A?&2,ό%;2;0: A-5ό/(4; AύD;2; 5;0 Yή5;2;0 U+ή4&5(0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S S 3 3 AA' AA S 2 2 S 1 1 DD(G 3 DD(G 1 Y 2 Y f Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 28

29 W'ά<+&44& *+&,-,+ό/'"0 9?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 Lό/'4;0 AύD;2;0 5;0 1+(2#(+ά0 U+ή4&5(0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA(M 1 AA(M 2 S S 3 3 DD Y 1 Y 3 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 29

30 W'ά<+&44& *+&,-,+ό/'"0 9?'?5ώ2"'0 4'&0 Lό/'4;0 W;4(2'(/(4'7ή0 9?έ75&2;0 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA S 3 S 2 S DD(G 2 DD(G 1 Y f Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 30

31 *'G%'(<+&#ί& Hicks J.R. (1937, Mr Keynes and the Classics: A Suggested Interpretation, Econometrica, 5, pp Keynes J.M. (1936, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Macmillan, London. Krugman P. and M. Obstfeld (2012, International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson, London. Mundell R. (1963, Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates, Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29, pp

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33 X(Q,Y * 1 M *(Q,Y Q Q Q + M *(Q,Y Q 2 < 0 R R R R R (117.9 H?(@έ5(-4" ό5' &+,'7ά 5( '2(Cύ<'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&<ώ/ G+'27ό5&/ 2" '2(++(?ί&, 3;%&3ή ό5' (' "'2&<E<έ0 "ί/&' ί2"0 4" 5'0 "D&<E<έ0. A-5ό 2-/"?ά<"5&', X(Q,Y * = 1 M *(Q,Y R R R R R R R R ( Q 1(%%&?%&2'άC(/5&0 5;/ (117.9 "?ί, Q X(Q,Y * = Q 2 M * (Q,Y G%έ?(-4" ό5' ; (117.9 '2(3-/&4"ί 4" 5; 2-/@ή7;, η η * +1 < 0, ή, η + η* > 1 R R R R R R R R R R ( ό?(-, η = X(Q,Y * Q Q X(Q,Y * "ί/&' ; "%&25'7ό5;5& 5;0 Cή5;2;0 "D&<E<ώ/ η* = Μ *(Q,Y * Q Q 2 Μ *(Q,Y * "ί/&' ; "%&25'7ό5;5& 5;0 Cή5;2;0 "'2&<E<ώ/ I 2-/@ή7; ( "ί/&' </E25ή E0 ; %@$1ή3/ Marshall Lerner, &?ό 5(-0 ('7(/(4(%ό<(-0 Alfred Marshall 7&' Aba Lerner?(- 5;/ "?'2ή4&/&/ <'&?+ώ5; #(+ά. N'& /& G"%5'ώ2"' 4ί&?+&<4&5'7ή -?(5ί4;2; 5( 5( ά@+('24& 5E/ "%&25'7(5ή5E/ 5;0 Cή5;2;0 "D&<E<ώ/ 7&' "'2&<E<ώ/ E0?+(0 5;/?+&<4&5'7ή '2(5'4ί& /& "ί/&' 4"<&%ύ5"+( &?ό 5; 4(/ά3&. 33