!"#ά%&'( 19 ) *+&,-,+ό/'(0 1+(23'(+'24ό0 5(- 62(7-8ί(- 1%:+;4ώ/ =&' : >&=+(('=(/(4'=ή 1(%'5'=ή

L'ώ+8(0 J%(8(2=(ύ#:0, 7&!20ή4 8&')0)/&'ή ',& 9,6'ό"/&, 8&')0)/ί,!"#ά%&'( 19 ) *+&,-,+ό/'(0 1+(23'(+'24ό0 5(- 62(7-8ί(- 1%:+;4ώ/ =&' : >&=+(('=(/(4'=ή 1(%'5'=ή @5( ="#ά%&'( &-5ό "A'="/5+;/ό4&25" 2" 7:5ή4&5& B+&,-,+ό/'(- A+(23'(+'24(ύ 5(- '2(7-8ί(- A%:+;4ώ/. @" 4ί& &/('=5ή ('=(/(4ί&, (' "A'3ί;D: 5;/ A(%'5'=ώ/ =&' 5;/ /(4'24&5'=ώ/ &+,ώ/ "ί/&' /& 3'&5:+ή2(-/ "2;5"+'=ή =&' "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&. E!"#$!%&'ή &")%%)*ί, (+ί7"5&' ;0 έ/& "AίA"3( 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 A(- /& "ί/&' 2-4B&5ό 4" -G:%ή &A&2,ό%:2: =&' 4" έ/& 2,"5'=ά 25&H"+ό "AίA"3( 5'4ώ/. ΌA;0 "ί3&4" 25(!"#ά%&'( 13, :!-#$!%&'ή &")%%)*ί, 2-/"Aά8"5&' 4ί& 3'&,+(/'=ή A(+"ί& 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ : (A(ί& /& 4:/ 3:4'(-+8"ί 5:/ A+(23(=ί& ό5' :,ώ+& ='/3-/"ύ"' /& 4:/ "ί/&' 2" Hέ2: /& "D-A:+"5"ί 5&,+έ: 5:0, &%%ά (ύ5" /& 3:4'(-+8"ί =ί/:5+& 2" ά%%"0,ώ+"0 /& 4:/ "D-A:+"5(ύ/ 5& 3'=ά 5(-0,+έ: A+(0 &-5ή/. @5( ="#ά%&'( &-5ό &/&%ύ(-4" 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 5:0 /(4'24&5'=ή0 =&' 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 25: B+&,-,+ό/'& "2;5"+'=ή =&' "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&, 4" 5:/ έ//('& 5:0 "Aί5"-D:0 -G:%ή0 &A&2,ό%:2:0 4" 25&H"+ό "AίA"3( 5'4ώ/, =&',&4:%ώ/ "%%"'44ά5;/ 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. J/&%ύ(-4" =&H"25ώ5& 5ό2( './,&0)/έ0#0 ό2( =&' "$,2!%ώ0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/. J+,'=ά "A'="/5+;/ό4&25" 25( ',2!"$ώ4 $#0 './,&0)/έ0#0 ".0,55,6/,$&'ώ0 &")$&/&ώ0. K"ί,/(-4" A;0 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή /(4'24&5'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 4A(+"ί /& (3:8ή2"' 5:/ ('=(/(4ί& A+(0 -G:%ή &A&2,ό%:2:, A+(=&%ώ/5&0 -A(5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, : (A(ί& (3:8"ί 2" B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. J/5ίH"5&, 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 4A(+"ί /& (3:8ή2"' 5:/ ('=(/(4ί& A+(0 -G:%ή &A&2,ό%:2:, &%%ά A+(=&%ώ/5&0 &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. ) 2-/3-&24ό0 &-5ό0 A+(=&%"ί B+&,-,+ό/'& "A'3"ί/;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. E,+ή2: 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 A+(=&%"ί 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5:0 "A'3ί;D:0 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. E 2ύ8=+(-2: &-5ή A&+&4έ/"' =&' ό5&/ -Aά+,"' ',2!"$ώ4 "$,2!%ώ0 ".0,55,6/,$&'ώ0 &")$&/&ώ0.

>" =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/, 3"/ 4A(+"ί A%έ(/ /&,+:2'4(A(':H"ί : /(4'24&5'=ή A(%'5'=ή, : (A(ί& "ί/&' A+(2&/&5(%'24έ/: 25: 25&H"+(A(ί:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0. >ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: ό4;0 "ί/&' A'( &A(5"%"24&5'=ή &Aό ό,5' 2" =&H"25ώ0 =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/, 3'ό5' : ="/5+'=ή 5+άA"7& "ί/&' -A(,+";4έ/: /& "D(-3"5"+ώ2"' 5'0 &/(3'=έ0 A'έ2"'0 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0 25& "A'5ό='& =&' 5: 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί&, "A'5+έA(/5&0 25:/ A+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 /& &-D:H"ί 4έ2; 5;/ "'2+(ώ/ 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/.!&5ά 2-/έA"'&, 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: A+(=&%"ί A'( έ/5(/: "Aέ=5&2: 5(- JM1 &Aό ό,5' &/ A+(=&%(ύ2" =&' &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. 1&+ό%& &-5ά, 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ "A'3"'/ώ/"5&', %ό8; 5:0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ A(- A+(=&%"ί 5( &-D:4έ/( JM1. @" έ/& =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/, : 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5;/ 25ό,;/ 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 4A(+"ί /& &/5'4"5;A'25"ί B+&,-,+ό/'& 4έ2; 4ί&0!;ά*,-.*)$ί/="=4 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. >ί& "#άa&d -A(5ί4:2: %"'5(-+8"ί όa;0 4ί& /(4'24&5'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 2" =&H"25ώ5& =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/. 1+(=&%"ί &ύd:2: 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 &8&Hώ/ =&' -A:+"2'ώ/ =&' 5(- JM1, : (A(ί& (3:8"ί 2" "Aέ=5&2: =&' 5:0 A+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0 %ό8; 5:0 "'2+(ή0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/ A(- =&Hί25&5&' &A&+&ί5:5: 8'& /& "D'2(++(Aή2"' "= /έ(- : &8(+ά,+ή4&5(0. E -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 (3:8"ί 2" B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/, =&' έ52' "A'5-8,ά/"5&' 5ό2( "2;5"+'=ή ό2( =&' "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&. ) (+'24ό0 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 "D&+5ά5&' &Aό 4ί& 2"'+ά &Aό A&+ά8(/5"0 A(- 2,"5ί7(/5&' 4" 5( 2-/&%%&84&5'=ό =&H"25ώ0 (25&H"+έ0 ή =-4&'/ό4"/"0 '2(5'4ί"0), 5'0 2-/Hή="0 5;/ 3'"H/ώ/ &8(+ώ/ 2-/&%%ά84&5(0 =&' 5;/ 3'"H/ώ/ ="#&%&'&8(+ώ/, 5( ή3: -Aά+,(/ ύg(0 5(- "D;5"+'=(ύ,+έ(-0 =&' 5:/ =&5ά25&2: 5(- -A(%(ίA(- =ό24(-. >ί& A&+&5"5&4έ/: A"+ί(3(0 -G:%ώ/ =&' "Aί4(/;/ "%%"'44ά5;/ 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ H& 4A(+(ύ2" /& "+4:/"-5"ί &Aό 5'0 3'"H/"ί0 ="#&%&'&8(+έ0 ;0 4ί& έ/3"'d: ό5' :,ώ+& A&+&B'ά7"' 5( 3'&,+(/'=ό "'2(3:4&5'=ό 5:0 A"+'(+'24ό, =&' /& 3:4'(-+8ή2"' 5( "/3",ό4"/( 4ί&0 -,;0&'ή4 ',&,*ό$)/=4 A&ύ2:0 5(- 3&/"'24(ύ 5:0 &Aό 5( "D;5"+'=ό. 19.1!" #$"%ύ'(" )*+,-.ώ0 12( + 3402**2'.25(1ή #$"5(.ί2 Mί3&4" 25(!"#ά%&'( 12 ό5' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ 3"/ "ί/&' A&+ά : 3'&#(+ά "8,;+ί(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 =&' "8,ώ+'&0 3&Aά/:0. J-5ή "ί/&' 4ί& A(%ύ 2:4&/5'=ή A&+&5ή+:2: 3'ό5' =&5"-Hύ/"' 5:/ A+(2(,ή 4&0 25: 4&=+(('=(/(4'=ή #ύ2: 5;/ "D;5"+'=ώ/ &/'2(++(A'ώ/. >?&ό%2#"= $#0!-#$!%&'ώ0,0&")%%)*&ώ0,*,&$!ί /έ$%, *). 2,,*)',$,"$ή").0 $= "@έ"= /!$,-ύ!6@#%ί).!&")?ή/,$)4 ',&!6@ώ%&,4?,*ά0=4. N( 2-/(%'=ό J=&Hά+'25( M8,ώ+'( 1+(Oό/ (JM1) '2(ύ5&' 4" 5: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2: 8'& "8,ώ+'& &8&Hά =&' -A:+"2ί"0. 2

Y = C + I + G + X M P P P P P P P P P (19.1) όa(- Y "ί/&' 5( &=&Hά+'25( "8,ώ+'( A+(Oό/ (JM1), C : 2-/(%'=ή '3';5'=ή =&5&/ά%;2:, I (' 2-/(%'=έ0 '3';5'=έ0 "A"/3ύ2"'0, G : 3:4ό2'& 3&Aά/:, C (' "D&8;8έ0 =&' D (' "'2&8;8έ0. )-2'&25'=ά : 5&-5ό5:5& 5(- "8,;+ί(- A+(Oό/5(0 8'& 4ί& &/('=5ή ('=(/(4ί& A"+'%&4Bά/"' =&' 5'0 =&H&+έ0 "D&8;8έ0 =&Hώ0 έ/& 4έ+(0 5:0 "8,ώ+'&0 3&Aά/:0 A"+'%&4Bά/"' 5'0 "'2&8;8έ0 (A(- A+έA"' /& &#&'+"H(ύ/), =&' έ/& 4έ+(0 5:0 7ή5:2:0 8'& "8,ώ+'& &8&Hά =&' -A:+"2ί"0 A+(έ+,"5&' &Aό 5'0 "D&8;8έ0 (A(- A+έA"' /& A+(25"H(ύ/). QA(Hέ5(/5&0 ό5' (' =&H&+έ0 4"5&B'B&25'=έ0 A%:+;4έ0 &Aό 5( "D;5"+'=ό '2(ύ/5&' 4" 5( 4:3έ/, 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ '2(ύ5&' 4" 5'0 =&H&+έ0 "D&8;8έ0, CA = X M P P P P P P P P P P P (19.2) όa(- CA 2-4B(%ί7"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. Έ,(-4" (+ί2"' 5: ".0)5&'ή!6@ώ%&,?,*ά0=, ή,*)%%ό;="= E, ;0 5( άh+('24& 5;/ 3&A&/ώ/ &Aό "8,ώ+'(-0 #(+"ί0, 3:%&3ή 5( άh+('24& 5:0 '3';5'=ή0 =&5&/ά%;2:0, 5;/ '3';5'=ώ/ "A"/3ύ2";/ =&' 5;/ 3:4(2ί;/ 3&A&/ώ/. E = C + I + G P P P P P P P P P P (19.3) JAό 5'0 (19.1), (19.2) =&' (19.3), 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ 3"/ "ί/&' A&+ά : 3'&#(+ά "8,;+ί(- "'2(3ή4&5(0 =&' "8,ώ+'&0 3&Aά/:0. >?&ό%2#"= $.@ό0!-#$!%&'ώ0,0&")%%)*&ώ0,*,&$!ί /έ$%, *). 2,,*)',$,"$ή").0 $= "@έ"= /!$,-ύ!6@#%ί).!&")?ή/,$)4 ',&!6@ώ%&,4?,*ά0=4. CA = Y E P P P P P P P P P P P (19.4) >A(+(ύ4" ό4;0 /& 3(ύ4" 5(/ A+(23'(+'24ό 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ =&' &Aό 5:/ A%"-+ά 5;/ A+(23'(+'25'=ώ/ A&+&8ό/5;/ 5:0 7ή5:2:0 "D&8;8ώ/ =&' "'2&8;8ώ/. >ί& &A%ή -AόH"2: "ί/&' ό5' : 7ή5:2: "D&8;8ώ/ "D&+5ά5&' &+/:5'=ά &Aό 5:/ A+&84&5'=ή "D;5"+'=ή '2(5'4ί&, 5: 2,"5'=ή 5'4ή 5;/ "8,;+ί;/ A+(Oό/5;/, "/ώ : 7ή5:2: "'2&8;8ώ/ "D&+5ά5&' H"5'=ά &Aό 5:/ A+&84&5'=ή "D;5"+'=ή '2(5'4ί&. E A+&84&5'=ή "D;5"+'=ή '2(5'4ί& (+ί7"5&' όa;0 έ,(-4" 3"' &Aό, Q = SP P * P P P P P P P P P P P (19.5) >" 5( "AίA"3( 5'4ώ/ 3"3(4έ/(, : A+&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί& Q "D&+5ά5&' 4ό/( &Aό 5:/ (/(4&25'=ή '2(5'4ί& S. 3

MA'A%έ(/ &-5(ύ, -A(Hέ5(-4" ό5' : 7ή5:2: 8'& "D&8;8έ0 "D&+5ά5&' H"5'=ά &Aό 5( A+&84&5'=ό "'2ό3:4& 25( "D;5"+'=ό Y*, "/ώ : 7ή5:2: "'2&8;8ώ/ "D&+5ά5&' H"5'=ά &Aό 5( "8,ώ+'( A+&84&5'=ό "'2ό3:4& Y. >" 5'0 -A(Hέ2"'0 &-5έ0 8+ά#(-4", X = X(S,Y *) P P P P P P P P P P P (19.6) M = 1 M *(S,Y ) P P P P P P P P P P (19.7) S QA(Hέ5(-4" ό5', X S < 0, M * S > 0 P P P P P P P P P P (19.8) X M * > 0, Y * Y > 0 P P P P P P P P P P (19.9)!&5ά 2-/έA"'&, 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ H& (+'2H"ί &Aό, CA = X M = X(S,Y *) 1 M *(S,Y ) P P P P P P P (19.10) S QA(Hέ5(/5&0 ό5' '2,ύ(-/ (' 2-/Hή="0 (19.8), (19.9), =&Hώ0 =&' : 2-/Hή=: Marshall Lerner, (B%.!"#ά%&'( 17), $) &")Fύ6&) $%!@)."ώ0 ".0,55,6ώ0 2,!-,%$ά$,& 2!$&'ά,*ό $)!6@ώ%&)!&"ό?=/, "$)!-#$!%&'ό, ',&,%0=$&'ά,*ό $=0 *%,6/,$&'ή ".0,55,6/,$&'ή &")$&/ί, ',& $) ".0)5&'ό!6@ώ%&)!&"ό?=/,. Mά/ : '2,ύ"' : 2-/Hή=: Marshall Lerner, 3:%&3ή &/ 5( άh+('24& 5;/ "%&25'=(5ή5;/ 5:0 7ή5:2:0 "D&8;8ώ/ =&' "'2&8;8ώ/ ;0 A+(0 5:/ '2(5'4ί& "ί/&' 4"8&%ύ5"+( &Aό 5: 4(/ά3&, 4ί& -A(5ί4:2: B"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-,ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. JAό 5:/ ά%%:, 4ί& &ύd:2: 5(- "8,;+ί(- JM1 &-Dά/"' 5: 7ή5:2: 8'& "'2&8;8έ0,,;+ί0 /& "A:+"ά7"' 5'0 "D&8;8έ0. Έ52', 4ί& &ύd:2: 5(- "8,ώ+'(- JM1 "A'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. JAό 5:/ (19.10), 2-/ά8"5&' ό5', dca = 1 S M *(S,Y ) Y dy PP P P P P P P P (19.11) >ί& &ύd:2: 5(- "8,ώ+'(- JM1 &-Dά/"' 5: 7ή5:2: 8'& "'2&8;8έ0 =&' "A'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. >ί& 4"ί;2: 5(- JM1 4"'ώ/"' 5: 7ή5:2: 8'& "'2&8;8έ0 =&' B"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. 4

Nέ%(0, 4ί& &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 25( "D;5"+'=ό, Y* &-Dά/"' 5: 3'"H/ή 7ή5:2: 8'& "D&8;8έ0 =&' B"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. JAό 5:/ (19.10) 2-/ά8"5&' ό5', dca = X(S,Y *) Y * dy * P P P P P P P P P (19.12) >ί& &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 25( "D;5"+'=ό &-Dά/"' 5: 7ή5:2: 8'& 5'0 "8,ώ+'"0 "D&8;8έ0, =&' B"%5'ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. >ί& 4"ί;2: 5(- JM1 25( "D;5"+'=ό 4"'ώ/"' 5: 7ή5:2: 8'& 5'0 "D&8;8έ0 4&0 =&' "A'3"'/ώ/"' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/.!&5ά 2-/έA"'&, = ".02ή'= &")%%)*ί,4 $). &")F.6ί). $%!@)."ώ0 ".0,55,6ώ0 ".0!*ά6!$,& /ί,,%0=$&'ή "@έ"= /!$,-ύ GE9 ',& *%,6/,$&'ή4 &")$&/ί,4. Mά/ &-D:H"ί 5( "8,ώ+'( JM1, H& A+έA"' /& -A(5'4:H"ί : A+&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί& 8'& /& 4: "A'3"'/;H"ί 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. QA(Hέ5(/5&0 ό5' B+&,-,+ό/'& 5& "AίA"3& 5'4ώ/ "ί/&' 3"3(4έ/&, =&' ό5' 4ί& 4"5&B(%ή 25:/ (/(4&25'=ή '2(5'4ί& A+(=&%"ί B+&,-,+ό/'& 4ί& '2(3ύ/&4: 4"5&B(%ή 25:/ A+&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί&, 3:%&3ή ό5' dq=ds, : 2-/Hή=: '2(++(Aί&0 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ A&+ί25&5&' 25( K'ά8+&44& 19.1 ;0 : =&4Aύ%: SS. E =%ί2: 5:0 =&4Aύ%:0 XX 3ί/"5&' &Aό, ds dy = 1 M * XX X(1 η X η M* ) Y P P P P P P P P (19.13) όa(- = X =&' = M* "ί/&' (' "%&25'=ό5:5"0 5:0 7ή5:2:0 "D&8;8ώ/ =&' "'2&8;8ώ/ 2" 2,έ2: 4" 5: 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί&. Mά/ '2,ύ"' : 2-/Hή=: Marshall Lerner, όa;0 έ,(-4" -A(Hέ2"', ( ό+(0 (1 - = X - = M* ) H& "ί/&' &+/:5'=ό0, =&' : =%ί2: 5:0 XX H& "ί/&' &+/:5'=ή. >A(+"ί =&/"ί0 /& 3"ίD"' ό5' : =&4Aύ%: SS έ,"' 4'=+ό5"+: =%ί2: &Aό 5:/ =&4Aύ%: DD, : (A(ί& "ί/&' : 2-/Hή=: '2(++(Aί&0 25:/ &8(+ά &8&Hώ/ =&' -A:+"2'ώ/. E =&4Aύ%: DD A+(23'(+ί7"5&' &Aό, Y = C(Y T ) + G + I + X(S,Y *) 1 M *(S,Y ) P P P P P P (19.14) S E =%ί2: 5:0 5"%"-5&ί&0 "ί/&' 4"8&%ύ5"+: =&' 3ί/"5&' &Aό, 5

ds dy = 1 DD X(1 η X η M* ) 1 C Y + M * Y P P P P P (19.15) J/ &-D:H"ί 5( 2-/(%'=ό "8,ώ+'( "'2ό3:4&, &A&'5"ί5&' 4'=+ό5"+: -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 8'& /& &A(=&5&25&H"ί : '2(++(Aί& 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ &Aό ό,5',+"'ά7"5&' 8'& /& "D'2;H"ί : 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2: 4" 5( &-D:4έ/( "8,ώ+'( "'2ό3:4&. N' 2:4&ί/"' ό4;0 "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&, ή '2(++(Aί& 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ B+&,-,+ό/'&; Έ/&0 &Aό 5(-0 A+;5(Aό+(-0 25:/ &/ά%-2: 5;/ 2-/H:=ώ/ B+&,-,+ό/'&0 "D;5"+'=ή0 =&' "2;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0, ( James Meade (1950), -AέH"5" ό5' 4ί&,ώ+& "ί/&' 2" (B+&,-,+ό/'&) "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί& ό5&/ (' 2-/(%'=έ0 "'2A+άD"'0 &Aό 5'0 "D&8;8έ0 5:0 '2(ύ/5&' 4" 5'0 2-/(%'=έ0 3&Aά/"0 8'& 5'0 "'2&8;8έ0 5:0. >ί& 4"5&B(%ή 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ &Aό &-5ή 5:/ έ//('& 5:0 '2(++(Aί&0 (+'7ό5&/ ;0 "A'3"ί/;2: &/ (3:8(ύ2" 2" έ%%"'44& 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ =&' ;0 B"%5ί;2: &/ (3:8(ύ2" 2" A%"ό/&24&. >A(+(ύ4" B"B&ί;0 /&,+:2'4(A('ή2(-4" =&' έ/& =άa;0 A'( 8"/'=ό (+'24ό, H";+ώ/5&0 ό5' : =&4Aύ%: SS A&+'25ά 5: ".02ή'=!-#$!%&'ή4 &")%%)*ί,4, 4" 5:/ έ//('& ό5' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ B+ί2="5&' 2" έ/& "AίA"3( 5( (A(ί( /& 4:/ 3:4'(-+8"ί &4#'B(%ί"0 8'& 5( &/ :,ώ+& 2έB"5&' 5( 3'&,+(/'=ό "'2(3:4&5'=ό 5:0 A"+'(+'24ό. T& 4A(+(ύ2" =&/"ί0 /& (+ί2"' &-5ό 5( "AίA"3( ;0 έ/& '2(2="%'24έ/( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/, όa;0 ( Meade, &%%ά : "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί& H& 4A(+(ύ2" /& "ί/&' 2-4B&5ή =&' 4" έ/&,&4:%ό έ%%"'44& A(- /& 4:/ (3:8"ί 2" A(%ύ 5&,"ί& 2-22ώ+"-2: "D;5"+'=(ύ,+έ(-0, : (A(ί& /& A&+&B'ά7"' 5( 3'&,+(/'=ό "'2(3:4&5'=ό A"+'(+'24ό 5:0,ώ+&0. >A(+(ύ4" 5ώ+& /& &/&%ύ2(-4" 5( 2,έ2: 4"5&Dύ 4&=+(('=(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 =&' B+&,-,+ό/'&0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. 19.2 821,""(1"0".(1ή )"*(5(1ή 12( 9:-5;,(1ή #$",,"<ί2 @5( K'ά8+&44& 19.1 -A(Hέ5(-4" ό5' : ('=(/(4ί& B+ί2="5&' 25( 2:4"ί( B+&,-,+ό/'&0 '2(++(Aί&0 1, 4" 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί& S 1 =&' 2-/(%'=ό "8,ώ+'( "'2ό3:4& Y 1. @5( 2:4"ί( 1 "A'=+&5"ί!-#$!%&'ή &")%%)*ί,, 4" 5:/ έ//('& ό5' 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ B+ί2="5&' 25( "A'H-4:5ό 5(- "AίA"3(, &%%ά H& -A(Hέ2(-4" ό5' 3"/ "A'=+&5"ί!"#$!%&'ή &")%%)*ί,, 4" 5:/ έ//('& ό5' 5( 2-/(%'=ό "8,ώ+'( "'2ό3:4& 2-/"Aά8"5&',&4:%ό "AίA"3( &A&2,ό%:2:0. @5'0 A+(:8(ύ4"/"0 3ύ( 3'&%έD"'0 "ί3&4" A;0 : /(4'24&5'=ή =&' : 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή A(%'5'=ή 4A(+"ί /&,+:2'4(A(':H"ί 8'& 5:/ &A(=&5ά25&2: 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 6

'2(++(Aί&0, 3:%&3ή 5: 4"5&=ί/:2: 5:0 ('=(/(4ί&0 A+(0 5( "AίA"3( 5:0 -G:%ή0 &A&2,ό%:2:0. N' "A'A5ώ2"'0 H& έ,(-/ ό4;0 &-5έ0 (' A(%'5'=έ0 25:/ "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&; 19.2.1 =2>;$5ώ? =4.2(0".έ0-0 #$"5(.(ώ0 U"='/(ύ4" 5:/ &/ά%-2: -A(Hέ5(/5&0 έ/& ',2!"$ώ4 './,&0)/έ0#0 &")$&/&ώ0. @5( K'ά8+&44& 19.2 "D"5ά7(-4" 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 A+(2;+'/ή0 &ύd:2:0 5:0 A+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. J-5ή έ,"' ;0 &A(5έ%"24& 5: 4"ί;2: 5;/ "8,;+ί;/ "A'5(=ί;/ =&' 5:/ -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. E -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 4" 5: 2"'+ά 5:0 (3:8"ί 2" &ύd:2: 5;/ =&H&+ώ/ "D&8;8ώ/, : (A(ί& &-Dά/"' 5: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2:, =&' έ52' 5( JM1 &-Dά/"5&'. Mά/ 5( JM1 25( 2:4"ί( 1 B+ί2="5&' =ά5; &Aό 5( "AίA"3( 5:0 A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0, 4ί& 5έ5('& A(%'5'=ή A(- 5( (3:8"ί 25( 2:4"ί( 2, (3:8"ί 2" 4"ί;2: 5:0 &/"+8ί&0. @5( 2:4"ί( 2, 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ έ,"' &-D:4έ/( A%"ό/&24&, =&Hώ0 : -A(5ί4:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0 A(- έ,"' "Aέ%H"' "ί/&' 4"8&%ύ5"+: &Aό &-5ή A(- H& &A&'5"ί5( 8'& 5: 3'&5ή+:2ή 5(- 25( &+,'=ό 5(- "AίA"3(. E "A'3ί;D: 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 έ,"' (3:8ή2"' 4"/ 2" "D;5"+'=ή &/'2(++(Aί&, &%%ά &-5ή έ,"' 5: 4(+#ή 5:0 B"%5ί;2:0 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/, =ά5' A(- 8'& 5'0 A"+'22ό5"+"0,ώ+"0 3"/ H& &A(5"%(ύ2" A:8ή '3'&ί5"+:0 &/:2-,ί&0.!&5ά 2-/έA"'&, : "A'3ί;D: 5(- 25ό,(- 5:0 A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0 4έ2; 5:0 /(4'24&5'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 (3:8"ί 2" B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/, %ό8; 5(- ό5' : -A(5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 A(- A+(=&%"ί5&' "ί/&' 4"8&%ύ5"+: &Aό ό5' H& &A&'5"ί5( 8'& 5: 3'&5ή+:2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ 25( &+,'=ό 5(- "AίA"3(. @5( K'ά8+&44& 19.3 "D"5ά7(-4" 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 A+(2;+'/ή0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0, 4" 5: 4(+#ή "ί5" 5:0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ 3:4(2ί;/ 3&A&/ώ/, "ί5" 5:0 4"ί;2:0 5;/ #ό+;/. E 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: (3:8"ί 2" &ύd:2: 5:0 2-/(%'=ή0 "8,ώ+'&0 7ή5:2:0 =&' 4"5&=ί/:2: 5:0 =&4Aύ%:0 DD A+(0 5& 3"D'ά, : (A(ί& (3:8"ί 2" &ύd:2: 5(- JM1. V25ό2(, 4" 3"3(4έ/: 5:/ A+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0, : &-D:4έ/: 7ή5:2:,+ή4&5(0 8'& 5( 4"8&%ύ5"+( ό8=( 2-/&%%&8ώ/ A(- 2-/"Aά8"5&' 5( -G:%ό5"+( JM1 (3:8"ί 2" &ύd:2: 5;/ "8,;+ί;/ "A'5(=ί;/, : (A(ί& A+(=&%"ί &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, ώ25" /& 3'&5:+:H"ί : '2(++(Aί& 25'0 3'"H/"ί0 &8(+έ0 2-/&%%ά84&5(0. >" 5: 2"'+ά 5:0, : &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0 (3:8"ί 2" A"+&'5έ+; 4"ί;2: 5;/ =&H&+ώ/ "D&8;8ώ/, 4" &A(5έ%"24& /& -Aά+,"' 4"+'=ή "D(-3"5έ+;2: (crowding out) 5;/ "A'A5ώ2";/ 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0 25: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2:. E ('=(/(4ί& '2(++(A"ί 25( 2:4"ί( 2, 25( (A(ί( 5ό2( 5( JM1 ό2( =&' : 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί& B+ί2=(/5&' 2" -G:%ό5"+& "AίA"3&. @5( 2:4"ί( 2 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ έ,"' "A'3"'/;H"ί, =&Hώ0 5ό2( : &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0 ό2( =&' : &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 έ,(-/ 2-4Bά%%"' 25: 4"ί;2: 5;/ =&H&+ώ/ "'2&8;8ώ/. >'& 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: A+(=&%"ί =&5ά 2-/έA"'& 4ί& 7

2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5;/ 25ό,;/ 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. E "A'3ί;D: 5:0 A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0 4έ2; 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 (3:8"ί B+&,-,+ό/'& 2" "A'3"ί/;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. E "A'3"ί/;2: &-5ή "ί/&' A'( έ/5(/: =&' 4ό/'4: 25:/ A"+ίA5;2: 4'&0 4ό/'4:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0 (B%. K'ά8+&44& 19.4). >ί& 4ό/'4: 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: A+(=&%"ί &=ό4: 4"8&%ύ5"+: &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, =&Hώ0 A+(=&%"ί =&' &/&H"ώ+:2: 5;/ A+(23(='ώ/ 8'& 5: 4"%%(/5'=ή A(+"ί& 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0. E &/&5ί4:2: &-5ή "D(-3"5"+ώ/"' 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0 25: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2:, &%%ά (3:8"ί 2" 4(/'4ό5"+: "A'3"ί/;2: 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. E 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5;/ 25ό,;/ 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 "ί/&' A(%ύ A'( έ/5(/: 25:/ A"+ίA5;2: &-5ή. @-4A"+&24&5'=ά, 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή /(4'24&5'=ή "Aέ=5&2: (&ύd:2: 25:/ A+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0), : (A(ί& 3"/ 4"5&Bά%%"' 5'0 A+(23(=ί"0 8'& 5: 4"%%(/5'=ή 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί&, A+(=&%"ί ά4"2: -A(5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 =&' 5:0 &A&2,ό%:2:0 =&' 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. >ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: (&ύd:2: 5;/ 3:4(2ί;/ 3&A&/ώ/ ή 4"ί;2: 5;/ #ό+;/) "Aί2:0 A+(=&%"ί A+(2;+'/ή &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 =&' 5:0 &A&2,ό%:2:0, : (A(ί& ό4;0 2-/(3"ύ"5&' 4" -A"+5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 =&' "A'3"ί/;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. Nέ%(0, 4ί& 4ό/'4: 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2:, 3"/ έ,"' B+&,-,+ό/'"0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 25( JM1 =&' 5:/ &A&2,ό%:2:, =&Hώ0 A+(=&%"ί -A"+5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 A(- "D(-3"5"+ώ/"' 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0 25: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2:. E -A"+5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 "A'3"'/ώ/"' ό4;0 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. JDί7"' /& 2:4"';H"ί ό5' έ/& =&H"25ώ0 =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/ 3"/ 2-/5"%"ί &Aό 4ό/( 5(- 25:/ &A(=&5ά25&2: 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. ) %ό8(0 "ί/&' ό5' (' 2-/&%%&84&5'=έ0 '2(5'4ί"0 3"/ A+(23'(+ί7(/5&' 25( "AίA"3( A(- "D'2ώ/"' 5'0 "'2&8;8έ0 4" 5'0 "D&8;8έ0, &%%ά 25( "AίA"3( A(- "D'2ώ/"' 5'0 &A(3ό2"'0 5;/ /(4'24ά5;/ 25'0 3'"H/"ί0 &8(+έ0 2-/&%%ά84&5(0.!&5ά 2-/έA"'&, (ύ5" B+&,-,+ό/'&, &%%ά (ύ5" =&' 4&=+(,+ό/'& 5"ί/(-/ (' 2-/&%%&84&5'=έ0 '2(5'4ί"0 /& &A(=&5&25ή2(-/ 5:/ '2(++(Aί& 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. >" ό+(-0 5;/ 3'&8+&44ά5;/ A(-,+:2'4(A('(ύ4" 25'0 3'&%έD"'0 &-5έ0, : B+&,-,+ό/'& '2(++(Aί& 5(- JM1 =&' 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 A+(23'(+ί7"5&' &Aό 5( 2:4"ί( 5(4ή0 5;/ =&4A-%ώ/ DD =&' AA &/5ί25(',&, 4" 5( '2(7ύ8'( A%:+;4ώ/ /& A+(23'(+ί7"5&' &Aό 5: 3'&#(+ά 5(- "8,ώ+'(- JM1 &Aό 5: 2-/(%'=ή "8,ώ+'& 7ή5:2:. 19.2.2 =2>;$5ώ? 352>;,ώ0 #$"5(.(ώ0 M+,ό4&25" 5ώ+& 25:/ A"+ίA5;2: 5;/ "$,2!%ώ0 ".0,55,6/,$&'ώ0 &")$&/&ώ0. 8

ΌA;0 3"ίD&4" 25(!"#ά%&'( 18, : 3έ24"-2: /& 3'&5:+:H"ί : '2(5'4ί& 25&H"+ή 2-/"Aά8"5&' 5:/ &Aώ%"'& 5(- "+8&%"ί(- 5:0 /(4'24&5'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 8'& ά%%(-0 2=(A(ύ0, όa;0 : 25&H"+(A(ί:2: 5:0 ('=(/(4ί&0. Έ52', : /(4'24&5'=ή A(%'5'=ή 3"/ 4A(+"ί /& "A:+"ά2"' 5:/ 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2: =&' 5( JM1 2" =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/. J/5ίH"5&, : 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή A(%'5'=ή έ,"' "/5(/ώ5"+"0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 25( JM1 =&' 5:/ &A&2,ό%:2: ό5&/ : 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί& 3'&5:+"ί5&' 25&H"+ή. >" 25&H"+έ0 2-/&%%&84&5'=έ0 '2(5'4ί"0, 4ί& 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 3"/ A+(=&%"ί &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0 ή (A(ί& 2" =&H"25ώ0 =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/ H& 4"5+ί&7", ή =&' H& "D(-3"5έ+;/" 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 25: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2:. J/5ίH"5&, 4ί& 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: A+(=&%"ί "'2+(έ0 2-/&%%ά84&5(0 =&' -A(,+"ώ/"' 5:/ ="/5+'=ή 5+άA"7& /& &8(+ά7"' Dέ/( 2-/ά%%&84&, =ά5' A(- (3:8"ί =&' 2" /(4'24&5'=ή "Aέ=5&2:. E 2,"5'=ή &/ά%-2: A&+(-2'ά7"5&' 25( K'ά8+&44& 19.5. E &+,'=ή '2(++(Aί& B+ί2="5&' 25( 2:4"ί( 0, 5( (A(ί( 2-/"Aά8"5&' JM1 Y 0, 5( (A(ί( "ί/&' =ά5; &Aό 5( "AίA"3( 5:0 A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0. QA(Hέ5(-4" ό5' : =-Bέ+/:2: A+(=&%"ί 4ί& &ύd:2: 5;/ 3:4(2ί;/ 3&A&/ώ/ &Aό 5( "AίA"3( G 0 25( "AίA"3( G 1, 4" 25ό,( /& A+(=&%έ2"' &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 A+(0 5( "AίA"3( A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0.!ά5' 5έ5('( H& A+(=&%έ2"' "'2+(ή 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/, =&Hώ0 H& 3:4'(-+8:H(ύ/ 5ά2"'0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ "8,;+ί;/ "A'5(=ί;/ =&' &/&5ί4:2:0 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 2" 2,έ2: 4" 5( "AίA"3( S 0. J-5ό H& -A(,+"ώ2"' 5:/ ="/5+'=ή 5+άA"7& /& A&+έ4B"' 25:/ &8(+ά 2-/&%%ά84&5(0 &8(+ά7(/5&0 2-/ά%%&84& =&' &-Dά/(/5&0 5& 2-/&%%&84&5'=ά 5:0 3'&Hέ2'4& A+(="'4έ/(- /& 3'&5:+:H"ί 25&H"+ή : '2(5'4ί&. E A+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 H& &-D:H"ί &Aό 5( M 0 25( M 1 %ό8; 5:0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/. E &ύd:2: 5;/ 3:4(2ί;/ 3&A&/ώ/ H& έ,"' A+(=&%έ2"' 4"8&%ύ5"+: &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 =&' 5:0 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 &Aό ό5' &/ -Aή+," έ/& =&H"25ώ0 =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/, 3'ό5' (' "A'A5ώ2"'0 5;/ 3:4(2ί;/ 3&A&/ώ/ 25: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2: 3"/ 4"5+'ά7(/5&' &Aό &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0. @-/"Aώ0, (' "A'A5ώ2"'0 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 25: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2: =&' 5( A+&84&5'=ό JM1 "ί/&' 4"8&%ύ5"+"0 2" =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/ A&+ά 2" =&H"25ώ0 =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/. V25ό2(, =&' "3ώ 3:4'(-+8"ί5&' 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. @5( 2:4"ί( 1 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ έ,"' "A'3"'/;H"ί. E "A'3ί;D: 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 έ,"' (3:8ή2"' 2" 3'&2ά%"-2: 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. K"3(4έ/(- 3" ό5' 2" =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/ : /(4'24&5'=ή A(%'5'=ή 3"/ 4A(+"ί /&,+:2'4(A(':H"ί 8'& 5:/ "Aί5"-D: 5(- 25ό,(- 5:0 A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0, : 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5;/ 25ό,;/ 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 A(- A+(=&%"ί : 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή A(%'5'=ή έ,"' &=ό4: 4"8&%ύ5"+: 2:4&2ί&. >ί& 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 4A(+"ί /& &-Dή2"' 5: 2-/(%'=ή 7ή5:2:, &%%ά &-5ό (3:8"ί 2" &ύd:2: 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/,,;+ί0 5: 3-/&5ό5:5& &/&3'ά+H+;2:0 5:0 7ή5:2:0 9

-Aέ+ 5;/ "D&8;8ώ/, όa;0 H& 2-/έB&'/" &/ 4"5&B&%%ό5&/ : 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί&. J-5ή : 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 "ί/&' =&' ( %ό8(0 8'& 5(/ (A(ί( 2" A"+ίA5;2: A&+&5"5&4έ/;/ &/'2(++(A'ώ/ ("%%"'44ά5;/) 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ 4ί&,ώ+& 3"/ έ,"' ά%%: "A'%(8ή &Aό 5:/ -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. )' "A'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 &'#/ί3'&0 "#άa&d -A(5ί4:2:0 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 &/&%ύ(/5&' 25( K'ά8+&44& 19.6. E &+,'=ή '2(++(Aί& B+ί2="5&' 25( 2:4"ί( 0, 5( (A(ί( 2-/"Aά8"5&' JM1 Y 0, 5( (A(ί( "ί/&' =ά5; &Aό 5( "AίA"3( 5:0 A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0. E =-Bέ+/:2: =&' : ="/5+'=ή 5+άA"7& &A(#&2ί7(-/ &'#/ί3'& 4ί& "#άa&d -A(5ί4:2: 5:0 '2(5'4ί&0 &Aό 5( "AίA"3( S 0 25( "AίA"3( S 1, 4" 25ό,( /& A+(=&%έ2(-/ B"%5ί;2: 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ =&' &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 A+(0 5( "AίA"3( A%ή+(-0 &A&2,ό%:2:0. E -A(5ί4:2: H& A+(=&%έ2"' B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ =&' &ύd:2: 5:0 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 ά+& =&' 5(- JM1. E &ύd:2: 5:0 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 =&' 5(- JM1 H& A+(=&%έ2"' 4" 5: 2"'+ά 5:0 "'2+(ή 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/, =&Hώ0 H& 3:4'(-+8:H(ύ/ 5ά2"'0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ "8,;+ί;/ "A'5(=ί;/ =&' &/&5ί4:2:0 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0 2" 2,έ2: 4" 5( /έ( "AίA"3( S 1. J-5ό H& -A(,+"ώ2"' 5:/ ="/5+'=ή 5+άA"7& /& A&+έ4B"' 25:/ &8(+ά 2-/&%%ά84&5(0 &8(+ά7(/5&0 2-/ά%%&84& A+(="'4έ/(- /& 3'&5:+:H"ί 25&H"+ή : /έ& '2(5'4ί&. E A+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 H& &-D:H"ί &Aό 5( M 0 25( M 1 %ό8; 5:0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/. E -A(5ί4:2: H& έ,"' A+(=&%έ2"' &ύd:2: 5(- JM1 =&' 5:0 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0, B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ =&' &ύd:2: 5:0 2-/(%'=ή0 A+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0. J-5έ0 "ί/&' ( B+&,-,+ό/'"0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 -A(5ί4:2:0. E -A(5ί4:2: 3"/ (3:8"ί 25: B+&,-,+ό/'& 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5;/ 25ό,;/ 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 A(- A+(=&%"ί 4ί& 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2:. V25ό2(, 4&=+(,+ό/'&, 4ί& "#άa&d -A(5ί4:2: 3"/ H& έ,"' A+&84&5'=έ0 "A'A5ώ2"'0, =&Hώ0 : &ύd:2: 5:0 A+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0 H& (3:8ή2"' 25&3'&=ά 2" &ύd:2: 5(- "8,;+ί(- "A'Aέ3(- 5'4ώ/ =&5ά 5( ί3'( A(2(25ό 4" 5:/ -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0, =ά5' A(- H& &#ή2"' 5:/ A+&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί& &4"5άB%:5:. 19.3 A =2.<ύ*+ J 12( 5" #$"%ύ'("!,;b"4$ώ0 3402**2'ώ0 QA(Hέ2&4" ;0 5ώ+& ό5' 4ί& -A(5ί4:2: (3:8"ί 2" B+&,-,+ό/'& B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/, =&Hώ0 '2,ύ"' : 2-/Hή=: Marshall Lerner, ό5' 5( άh+('24& 5;/ "%&25'=(5ή5;/ 5:0 7ή5:2:0 "D&8;8ώ/ =&' "'2&8;8ώ/ -A"+B&ί/"' 5: 4(/ά3&. V25ό2(, ( ό8=(0 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ =&' 5;/ "D&8;8ώ/ 3"/ &/5'3+ά ά4"2& 25'0 4"5&B(%έ0 25:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. ) %ό8(0 "ί/&' ό5' -Aά+,(-/,+(/'=έ0-25"+ή2"'0, &Aό 5: 25'84ή 5:0 &Aό#&2:0 έ;0 5: 25'84ή 5:0 -%(A(ί:2:0 4'&0 10

"D&8;8'=ή0 ή 4ί&0 "'2&8;8'=ή0 A&+&88"%ί&0. J-5έ0 (',+(/'=έ0-25"+ή2"'0 έ,(-/ ;0 &A(5έ%"24& : &+,'=ή 4"5&B(%ή 5(- ό8=(- 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ =&' 5;/ "D&8;8ώ/ 4"5ά &Aό 4ί& -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 /& "ί/&' A(%ύ 4'=+ή, =&' έ52' 4ί& -A(5ί4:2:, : (A(ί& &-Dά/"' 5:/ &Dί& 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ 2" "8,ώ+'( /ό4'24& /& A+(=&%έ2"' &+,'=ά "A'3"ί/;2: =&' ό,' B"%5ί;2: 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. N( #&'/ό4"/( &-5ό A&+&5:+"ί5&' A(%ύ 2-,/ά =&' (/(4ά7"5&' =&4Aύ%: J &Aό 5( 2,ή4& 5:0,+(/'=ή0 "Dέ%'D:0 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ 4"5ά 4ί& -A(5ί4:2:. >ί& 5-A'=ή =&4Aύ%: J A&+ί25&5&' 25( K'ά8+&44& 19.7. T";+(ύ4" 4ί& ('=(/(4ί& : (A(ί& έ,"' έ%%"'44& CA 1 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. @5:,+(/'=ή 25'84ή t 0 8ί/"5&' 4ί& -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. J+,'=ά, : "AίA5;2: 5:0 -A(5ί4:2:0 "ί/&' /& &-Dή2"' 5:/ &Dί& 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ 2" "8,ώ+'( /ό4'24& =&' /& 4"'ώ2"' 5:/ &Dί& 5;/ "D&8;8ώ/. ) ό8=(0 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ =&' 5;/ "D&8;8ώ/ "ί/&' 3"3(4έ/(0, =&Hώ0 έ,"' A+(23'(+'2H"ί &Aό A+(:8(ύ4"/"0 A&+&88"%ί"0, (' (A(ί"0 3"/ 4A(+(ύ/ /& &=-+;H(ύ/. L'& έ/& 3'ά25:4& "=5"%(ύ/5&' A+(:8(ύ4"/"0 A&+&88"%ί"0 4" &A(5έ%"24& /& "A'3"'/;H"ί &+,'=ά 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/.!&Hώ0 25&3'&=ά "#&+4ό7(/5&' (' /έ"0 5'4έ0 8'& 5& "'2&8ό4"/& =&' 5& "D&8ό4"/&, ( ό8=(0 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ &+,ί7"' /& 4"'ώ/"5&' =&' 5;/ "D&8;8ώ/ /& &-Dά/"5&'. @5&3'&=ά 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ &+,ί7"' /& B"%5'ώ/"5&' =&' /& A+(2"88ί7"' 5( /έ( "AίA"3( '2(++(Aί&0 5(- CA 2 5( (A(ί( 2-/"Aά8"5&' A%"ό/&24&. ΌA;0 4A(+"ί /& 3"' =&/"ί0 &Aό 5( K'ά8+&44& 19.7 : A+(2&+4(8ή 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ 25(,+ό/( έ,"' 5: 4(+#ή 5(- 8+ά44&5(0 J. 19.4 821,"B,ό0(2 #$",,"<ί2 $5" #$"%ύ'("!,;b"4$ώ0 3402**2'ώ0 ) (+'24ό0 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 "D&+5ά5&' &Aό 4ί& 2"'+ά &Aό A&+ά8(/5"0 A(- 2,"5ί7(/5&' 4" 5( 2-/&%%&84&5'=ό =&H"25ώ0 (25&H"+έ0 ή =-4&'/ό4"/"0 '2(5'4ί"0), 5'0 2-/Hή="0 5;/ 3'"H/ώ/ &8(+ώ/ 2-/&%%ά84&5(0 =&' 5;/ 3'"H/ώ/ ="#&%&'&8(+ώ/, 5( ή3: -Aά+,(/ ύg(0 5(- "D;5"+'=(ύ,+έ(-0 =&' 5:/ =&5ά25&2: 5(- -A(%(ίA(- =ό24(-. 1+(="'4έ/(- /& &/&%ύ2"' =&/"ί0 5: 4&=+(,+ό/'& '2(++(Aί& 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/,+"'ά7"5&' 4ί& &/ά%-2: A(- /& B&2ί7"5&' 25: 3'&,+(/'=ή A+(2έ88'2: 25( '2(7ύ8'( A%:+;4ώ/ (B%.!"#ά%&'( 13). E 3'&,+(/'=ή A+(2έ88'2: "/2;4&5ώ/"' 5( 3'&,+(/'=ό "'2(3:4&5'=ό A"+'(+'24ό 4'&0,ώ+&0, 4" 5:/ έ//('& ό5', όa;0 =&' έ/& /('=(=-+'ό, έ52' =&' 4ί&,ώ+& 3"/ 4A(+"ί /& 3&/"ί7"5&' 2-/",ώ0 A+(="'4έ/(- /&,+:4&5(3(5"ί 3&Aά/"0 A(- -A"+B&ί/(-/ 5( "'2ό3:4ά 5:0. J-5ό 2:4&ί/"' ό5' 5+έ,(/5& "%%"ί44&5& 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ H& A+έA"' /& 2-/"Aά8(/5&' 4"%%(/5'=ά A%"(/ά24&5&. 11

E A&+(ύ2& &Dί& 5(- =&H&+(ύ "D;5"+'=(ύ,+έ(-0 4'&0,ώ+&0, =&Hώ0 (,+ό/(0 5"ί/"' A+(0 5( άa"'+(, H& A+έA"' /& 5"ί/"' A+(0 5( 4:3έ/. J-5ή : 2-/Hή=: &A(=%"ί"' 5:/ A(%ύ 5&,"ί& 2-22ώ+"-2: "D;5"+'=(ύ,+έ(-0. JA&'5"ί όa;0 5( "D;5"+'=ό,+έ(0 A(- 2-22;+"ύ"' : ('=(/(4ί& &-Dά/"5&' 4" +-H4ό A(- -A(%"ίA"5&' 5(- A+&84&5'=(ύ "A'5(=ί(-. >'& ('=(/(4ί& 4" άa"'+(,+(/'=ό (+ί7(/5& 4A(+"ί /& έ,"' 2-/",ώ0 "D;5"+'=ό,+έ(0, ή A"+'(-2'&=ά 25(',"ί& 25( "D;5"+'=ό, &+="ί 5( ύg(0 5(-0 /& 4:/ &-Dά/"5&' 4" +-H4ό 4"8&%ύ5"+( &Aό 5( A+&84&5'=ό "A'5ό='(. >ό/( 5ό5" '=&/(A('"ί5&' ( 3'&,+(/'=ό0 "'2(3:4&5'=ό0 5:0 A"+'(+'24ό0. >ί& A&+&5"5&4έ/: A"+ί(3(0 -G:%ώ/ =&' "Aί4(/;/ "%%"'44ά5;/ 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ H& 4A(+(ύ2" /& "+4:/"-5"ί &Aό 5'0 3'"H/"ί0 ="#&%&'&8(+έ0 ;0 4ί& έ/3"'d: ό5' :,ώ+& A&+&B'ά7"' 5( 3'&,+(/'=ό "'2(3:4&5'=ό 5:0 A"+'(+'24ό, =&' /& (3:8ή2"' 2" 4ί& -,;0&'ή ',&,*ό$)/= A&ύ2: 5(- 3&/"'24(ύ 5:0 &Aό 5( "D;5"+'=ό, 3:%&3ή 4'&0 =+ί2: "D;5"+'=(ύ,+έ(-0 A(- H& 5:/ &A(=όG"' &Aό 5'0 3'"H/"ί0 ="#&%&'&8(+έ0. 19.5 34.<;,ά$.252 @5: 3'ά%"D: &-5ή "A'="/5+;Hή=&4" 2" 7:5ή4&5& A+(23'(+'24(ύ 5(- '2(7-8ί(- A%:+;4ώ/, =&' 5:0 2,έ2:0 4"5&Dύ "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0, 5ό2( B+&,-,+ό/'& ό2( =&' 4&=+(,+ό/'&. @" 4ί& &/('=5ή ('=(/(4ί&, (' "A'3ί;D: 5;/ A(%'5'=ώ/ =&' 5;/ /(4'24&5'=ώ/ &+,ώ/ "ί/&' /& 3'&5:+ή2(-/ "2;5"+'=ή =&' "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&. E!"#$!%&'ή &")%%)*ί, (+ί7"5&' ;0 έ/& "AίA"3( 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 A(- /& "ί/&' 2-4B&5ό 4" 5:/ -G:%ή &A&2,ό%:2: =&' 4" έ/& 2,"5'=ά 25&H"+ό "AίA"3( 5'4ώ/. E!-#$!%&'ή &")%%)*ί, 2-/"Aά8"5&' 4ί& A(+"ί& 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ : (A(ί& /& 4:/ 3:4'(-+8"ί &4#'B(%ί"0 8'& 5: 3-/&5ό5:5& 5:0,ώ+&0 /& "D-A:+"5"ί 5( "D;5"+'=ό 5:0,+έ(0. J/&%ύ2&4" 5'0 "A'A5ώ2"'0 5:0 /(4'24&5'=ή0 =&' 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 25: B+&,-,+ό/'& "2;5"+'=ή =&' "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&, 4" 5:/ έ//('& 5:0 "Aί5"-D:0 -G:%ή0 &A&2,ό%:2:0 4" 25&H"+ό "AίA"3( 5'4ώ/, =&',&4:%ώ/ "%%"'44ά5;/ 25( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. J#(ύ 2-7:5ή2&4" 5'0 B+&,-,+ό/'"0 "A'A5ώ2"'0, &/&%ύ2&4" =&5όA'/ =&' 5'0 4&=+(,+ό/'"0 "A'A5ώ2"'0. J+,'=ά "A'="/5+;Hή=&4" 25( ',2!"$ώ4 $#0 './,&0)/έ0#0 ".0,55,6/,$&'ώ0 &")$&/&ώ0. K"ίD&4" A;0 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή /(4'24&5'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 4A(+"ί /& (3:8ή2"' 5:/ ('=(/(4ί& A+(0 -G:%ή &A&2,ό%:2:, A+(=&%ώ/5&0 -A(5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0, : (A(ί& (3:8"ί 2" A+(2;+'/ή B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. 12

J/5ίH"5&, 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 4A(+"ί /& (3:8ή2"' 5:/ ('=(/(4ί& A+(0 -G:%ή &A&2,ό%:2:, &%%ά A+(=&%ώ/5&0 &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. ) 2-/3-&24ό0 &-5ό0 A+(=&%"ί A+(2;+'/ή "A'3"ί/;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/. E,+ή2: 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 A(%'5'=ή0 A+(=&%"ί 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5:0 "A'3ί;D:0 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' 5:0 "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0. E 2ύ8=+(-2: &-5ή A&+&4έ/"' =&' ό5&/ -Aά+,"' ',2!"$ώ4 "$,2!%ώ0 ".0,55,6/,$&'ώ0 &")$&/&ώ0. >" =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/, 3"/ 4A(+"ί A%έ(/ /&,+:2'4(A(':H"ί : /(4'24&5'=ή A(%'5'=ή, : (A(ί& "ί/&' A+(2&/&5(%'24έ/: 25: 25&H"+(A(ί:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. >ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: ό4;0 "ί/&' A'( &A(5"%"24&5'=ή 25:/ "Aί5"-D: -G:%ή0 &A&2,ό%:2:0 &Aό ό,5' 2" =&H"25ώ0 =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/, 3'ό5' : ="/5+'=ή 5+άA"7& "ί/&' -A(,+";4έ/: /& "D(-3"5"+ώ2"' 5'0 &/(3'=έ0 A'έ2"'0 5:0 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 "Aέ=5&2:0 25& "A'5ό='& =&' 5: 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή '2(5'4ί&, "A'5+έA(/5&0 25:/ A+(2#(+ά,+ή4&5(0 /& &-D:H"ί 4έ2; 5;/ "'2+(ώ/ 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/.!&5ά 2-/έA"'&, 4ί& A+(2;+'/ή 3:4(2'(/(4'=ή "Aέ=5&2: A+(=&%"ί A'( έ/5(/: "Aέ=5&2: 5(- JM1 &Aό ό5' &/ A+(=&%(ύ2" =&' &/&5ί4:2: 5:0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ή0 '2(5'4ί&0. 1&+ό%& &-5ά, 5( '2(7ύ8'( 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/ "A'3"'/ώ/"5&', %ό8; 5:0 &ύd:2:0 5;/ "'2&8;8ώ/ A(- A+(=&%"ί 5( &-D:4έ/( JM1. @" έ/& =&H"25ώ0 25&H"+ώ/ '2(5'4'ώ/, : 2ύ8=+(-2: 4"5&Dύ 5;/ 25ό,;/ 5:0 "2;5"+'=ή0 =&' "D;5"+'=ή0 '2(++(Aί&0 4A(+"ί /& &/5'4"5;A'25"ί B+&,-,+ό/'& 4έ2; 4ί&0!;ά*,-.*)$ί/="=4 5(- /(4ί24&5(0. >ί& "#άa&d -A(5ί4:2: %"'5(-+8"ί όa;0 4ί& /(4'24&5'=ή "Aέ=5&2: 2" =&H"25ώ5& =-4&'/(4έ/;/ '2(5'4'ώ/. 1+(=&%"ί &ύd:2: 2-/(%'=ή0 7ή5:2:0 &8&Hώ/ =&' -A:+"2'ώ/ =&' 5(- JM1, : (A(ί& (3:8"ί 2" "Aέ=5&2: =&' 5:0 A+(2#(+ά0,+ή4&5(0 %ό8; 5:0 "'2+(ή0 2-/&%%&84&5'=ώ/ 3'&H"2ί4;/ A(- =&Hί25&5&' &A&+&ί5:5: 8'& /& "D'2(++(Aή2"' "= /έ(- : &8(+ά,+ή4&5(0. E -A(5ί4:2: 5(- /(4ί24&5(0 (3:8"ί 2" B"%5ί;2: 5(- '2(7-8ί(- 5+",(-2ώ/ 2-/&%%&8ώ/, =&' έ52' "A'5-8,ά/"5&' B+&,-,+ό/'& 5ό2( "2;5"+'=ή ό2( =&' "D;5"+'=ή '2(++(Aί&. 13

K'ά8+&44& 19.1 *+&,-,+ό/'& 62(++(Aί& =&' 5( 62(7ύ8'( N+",(-2ώ/ @-/&%%&8ώ/ Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA S 1 1 XX DD Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 14

K'ά8+&44& 19.2 )' MA'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 1+(2;+'/ή0 W(4'24&5'=ή0 MAέ=5&2:0 25:/ M2;5"+'=ή =&' 5:/ MD;5"+'=ή 62(++(Aί& Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA AA' S 1 1 S 2 2 XX DD Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 15

K'ά8+&44& 19.3 )' MA'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 1+(2;+'/ή0 K:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 MAέ=5&2:0 25:/ M2;5"+'=ή =&' 5:/ MD;5"+'=ή 62(++(Aί& Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA S 3 3 S 1 1 DD' XX DD Y 1 Y 3 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 16

K'ά8+&44& 19.4 )' MA'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 >ό/'4:0 K:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 MAέ=5&2:0 25:/ M2;5"+'=ή =&' 5:/ MD;5"+'=ή 62(++(Aί& Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S 4 AA' AA S 4 S 1 1 DD' XX DD Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 17

K'ά8+&44& 19.5 )' MA'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 1+(2;+'/ή0 K:4(2'(/(4'=ή0 MAέ=5&2:0 25:/ M2;5"+'=ή =&' 5:/ MD;5"+'=ή 62(++(Aί& 2"!&H"25ώ0 @5&H"+ώ/ 62(5'4'ώ/ Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S XX AA AA' S 0 0 1 DD' DD Y 0 Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 18

K'ά8+&44& 19.6 )' MA'A5ώ2"'0 4'&0 M#άA&D QA(5ί4:2:0 25:/ M2;5"+'=ή =&' 5:/ MD;5"+'=ή 62(++(Aί&, 2"!&H"25ώ0 @5&H"+ώ/ 62(5'4'ώ/ Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία S AA AA' S 0 0 S 1 1 XX DD Y 0 Y 1 Συνολικό Προϊόν Υ 19

K'ά8+&44& 19.7 E!&4Aύ%: J =&' (' K'&,+(/'=έ0 MA'A5ώ2"'0 >'&0 QA(5ί4:2:0 25( 62(7ύ8'( N+",(-2ώ/ @-/&%%&8ώ/ Ισοζύγιο Τρεχουσών Συναλλαγών CA 2 0 t 0 CA 1 Χρόνος 20

*'B%'(8+&#ί& Krugman P. and M. Obstfeld (2012), International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson, London. Meade J. (1950), The Balance of Payments, Oxford, Oxford University Press. 21