18 5 2016 9 ( ) JournalofCapitalUniversityofEconomicsandBusines Vol 18,No 5 Sep 2016 DOI:10 13504/j cnki isn1008-2700 2016 05 006! F<= 1,2,C 3 (1 Z[ Y! P,G \] 065201; 2 /]X Y!"#$, 100836;3 %& ^ Y,%& 300270) :LM 67,R NO &+, T, 0 U; U P -QRS=T (Dixit-Stiglitz)U?1V&/ U S W XUAY & C, C& SC A, A U Z AY [& U U& [ NO &\5?A &]^ ( X 5?Z &05 : ; 0; A ;.!"#$%:F752 &' :A & %:1008-2700(2016)05-0046-08 DE =! 2 PW! "# 4^!./ R? P =! "#/ 7 W!, *',XC /!CD /E 7 1! Q 2 P,V/! GDP, 7 $ 1 Q,! Q? 8 @,! E L?@,E, 7 J aa L! $ /E Q, 7 JE 0? 8, > T 7."#Q! P,Z 9W >, "# =! P@, $ D!, $!,> 1,W # 4^ / " "# =! [\! / =! P 9^,99^XY /25A. N,> N!, W a -,6 _ (Dixit-Stiglitz)9^ 4+ 9^ = / ' :2016-04-05 A :,]X A! Z Y ] =,+5P FJK_ "# (14AJL006) : (1974 ),,,Z[ Y! P_N,/]X Y!"#$)* ;C (1984 ),,,% & ^ Y` 46
-! () 2016 5 $M ' 1' /W /,9 /' 1 :c Q \/0,> Z 1/0 " 1! GDP * &'() =! P[\ 01, '!R W! :,Q (Sachs&Warner,1995) a' / Qbc,,, J L bc, [1] (Pomeranz,2000) R 18 /, >G /, =! C, >!,> Q/ % G? CD [2] 2 Q, (Alesina& Spolaore, 2003) C Q,89 ' J,,89, V! [3]! 4, G?! (Ventura,1997) # - b 9^,R KL FJ,$! [4] K Q (Acemoglu&Ventura,2002) NR, 1 @X, KK _DF 7,$ F ] [5] @/ c ; Q 2 EW! 4,, ;Q# -; (Grosman&Helpman,1995)a7,6 +5 J VMNZ QM 3, KK! [6] `a, (Lucas,2009) "# E 4 I,R Q I Wb,5+! [7] "C NW! C,,;Q# -; (Grosman&Helpman,1991)R, Q STKK, "C ^ +5J,. UV [8] # -; (Helpman,2004)a7!L C+ IE@,! [9] V!E XY P Q! 2 ' P &,!! 7 T! 4+, a -,6 _ 9^ 9^, 47
2016 5,C :/! "# Q! 2 ' P,>./ *' 1 2 I>+, ( )+5 ', (Spence,1976) "# V @?F ' A 1;/ O [10] a Q,6 _ (Dixit&Stiglitz,1977) '. 5A V [11] (Romer,1990) 9 ' /2^,> /2^ )* N, $ I 5A 4+! 9^[12],;Q# -; (1991) W9% /0 A,."# N=! P [8] K4 Q (Aghion&Howit,1992) 1ID 9^, ^ 4+ 9^[13] 9^$ 'O?,a Q,6 _ V \ O!, a -,6 _ 9^ 99^ ' W /,?+5 ' O : Y=L 1-α N X α i i=1 V/,Y 57,L,X /25A^ ',i /25A W / +5 ' '//25A X i 5 V /25A X j, > +5 /, / 25A GX. /25A5+;,+5 / /25A 01 /25A,cb +5,W N R /25A +5 W /25A +5 L` +5 /25A 01 E cb 01!!? /25AA >!CD/ N,W! =,3? /25A 1, /25A5+ W 1 7 (! * /!.1/ 1 GH7 > + 5 ')* 5A N!! /25A N +5 /25A? :., +5 /^ ', X i =X : Y=L 1-α N X α i =L 1-α NX α =L 1-α (NX) α N 1-α i=1 9 +5 LQ/25A 6 NX 89'DG PW G LQ NX, /25A N,Xb 57 Y,/25A b +5 / 89' D /25A N. 57 Y, 7/25A/ X. 'D,5+ 4+ )* /25A N! 4 /25A!,."#!, & N,.!! ' 9^,> Q! 2 ' P ( )+5 bc,, /25A,>@+5 ' : Y=L 1-α X α L,XWB, G 57 Y >@! N,,U, +5 '?, '?,/25A'? > bc 48
-! () 2016 5,U, 57E? /25A%7 T 8,8 U,/25A ' (?,?@EWG? 5A A,> N, 2 /25A Z WU /25A / N, >@+5 ' : $ : Y=L 1-α ( X α N N ) Y=N 1-α L 1-α X α (1) $9+5 ' Q7, (U, /25AQ ' G,PW,' N,U, 577 $ W 5+ 4+ 9^ A, _ : : π =Y-wL-NP X N π =Y-wL-PX V/,wW J,PW/25A,>@. G?, /25A W? + 5 W,P /25A WL, _ 0 (1)% /25ANb', : $ : P =αl 1-α N 1-α X α-1 X =( P α ) 1 α-1 LN ( ) W, V B η : Y,M /25A P V+5 /25A +5 1 : Y,/25A 7 : V/,rW_J V(t)= (P-1)Xe -r(v-t) dv t +5 &, MN '/ %,$ /25A +5 U @ P (P-1)X > ] : (P-1)( P α ) 1 α-1 LN N 7 H : $,X5A 6' : _J '@, e -r(v-t) dv= 1 r, : t P = 1 α X =α 2 1-α LN V(t)= ( 1-α t α )α2 1-α LNe -r(v-t) dv 49
2016 5,C :/! "# V(t)= 1 r (1-α α )α2 1-α LN W T 7,VZ W/25A 7 V : $ : V(t) =η r= LN η (1-α α )α2 1-α (2) (=) =ST, F : 7 J ] : (2) : C17A : V/,ηγN (1) : Y LQ XW ',V J 0,$ : U = ( C1-θ -1 0 1-θ )e-ρt dt γ C = 1 θ (r-ρ) γ C = 1 θ [LN η (1-α α )α2 1-α -ρ] (3) C =Y-ηγ N N-X (4) Y =(1-α)N N +(1-α)L L +αx X Y Y =(1-α)N N 1>1-α>0,$ 57 J\ J (3) (4) (5) P, : γ C = C C = 1 θ [LN η (1-α α )α2 1-α -ρ] Y Y =(1-α)N N C =Y-ηγ N N-X ] L7 Y NQ C > 9^ 57 YQ N 2 ' P,> N)*! 4,/6+5G? /25A,G? /25A G?,/25A =' L\ /25A+5 / 3,cb, 23 * /25 A %, * /25A, 2I I X KL +5J,$ 5+!,! W N,. N.! $ 9^! IE I!,$! 4,! R 50 $ 9^/, Z : W W (5)!,./2^
-! () 2016 5 A, A cb W N, N,! W$ ' Q! 2 P Q, '! ( (5), 1>1-α>0,$ 57 J\ J),$ 7!!! /0 9^XY! 4, =! 2 ' P 9^ 1 M 7 *' YW, 57,57 Y, GDP.,9' \ * 9^/,N W,',?@ E /25A',T [ 9^/W$/2A.)*!, ', / N [ '. /,' W 1978 2014 @2 )', 37 7 ' U ' '7, 9', GDPQ [ '= ' 7,$ J, >, GDPQ [ J 2 ' P JS ^_ P ^_ GDPQ ' W? F, J Z Q J Z 6 O GDP JQ [ J 2 ' P,M (5)W 9 / 1-αW Y N, Y J= N J + 9 '7, 1:- YQ N 7 ', lnyq lnn,( lny=β+(1-α)lnn 1 /0 9 / P' 1-α W$ N '7, 1 M GDPQ [' '7 ', W / > ' '' * Q ',H '> /0 F KW' PW R @2 ) 1 /0 X7 W 7, \/0 \/0WR @ 2 )$K7, % T R 2 P \ Q (Engle&Granger,1987) \ (E-G%N ) [14] Q (Johansen,1990) \ [15], ' E-G%N E-G%N M ' 1 :c, > ' GDP' lngdpq [' lnimport 1 ADF,VZ 1 Z @2 ) lngdp lnimport ADF 7 5% 7,G@, )WR % 1 / $O ) lngdp lnimport % ADF,V ADF7 5% 7,, / )W & ADF, S,@2 ) lngdp lnimportw \, 1 \ 1 ADF 4 O ADF7 7 Z J7 lngdp (C,T,4) -0 9491 5% -3 5578 R 0 9373 lngdp (C,0,4) -3 5826 5% -2 9571 0 0119 lnimport (C,T,0) -0 9272 5% -3 5403 R 0 9416 lnimport (C,0,0) -4 3284 5% -2 9484 0 0016 51
2016 5,C :/! "# \, lngdp lnimport 1, Z : lngdp =3 7583 + 0 7897lnimport (26 6060)(51 4050) R 2 =0 9869 F=2642 475 1 ADF, O (0,0,1),Eviews 7Z 2 Z 5%,$ )W > H lngdp lnimport3 \ P 2 F ADF 4 t7 P7 ADF -2 0665 0 0388 7 1% level -2 6327 5% level -1 9507 10% level -1 6111 c \ Z,lnGDPQ lnimport3 P,V P :lngdp= 3 7583+0 7897lnimport / P' 0 7897 W $ "# P' 1-α 9P', [ 1%@,GDP 0 7897% >, #,! *' $ @!/! /!! & $ 7 1-α'7=V "# Z % +5 '/ "' 6' / [,9' $ ' G '/ 7. (Romer,1994)$6 / 7. '7W 0 6,V/, '7 1-α7 0 7897, 0 6,> E 4 [16] /.!CD / W! /, L! 4+ a -,6 _ 9^ $ 1! 9^! W N,. N.!, W! 9^?@,$ ' Q! 2 P Q, '! ' / 1978 2014 ' 1,9 @ ', / [ 1%@,GDP 0 7897% 9^G @!/ L!!,E 9^,! X, E cb L @EW! @ >, CD _ KL! /!,! Q P 7 c 52 BC&': [1]SACHSJD,WARNERA.Economicreformandtheprocesofglobalintegration[Z].BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1995:1-118.
-! () 2016 5 [2]POMERANZK.Thegreatdivergence:China,Europe,andthemakingofthemodernworldeconomy[M].Princeton:PrincetonUniversity Pres,2000. [3]ALESINAA,SPOLAOREE.Thesizeofnations[M].Cambridge:MITPres,2003. [4]VENTURAJ.Growthandindependence[J].TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1997,112(1):57-84. [5]ACEMOGLUD,VENTURAJ.Theworldincomedistribution[J].QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,2002,117(2):659-694. [6]GROSSMANGM,HELPMANE.Technologyandtrade[C]//HandbookofInternationalEconomics.Amsterdam:Elsevier,1995. [7]LUCASRE.Tradeandthedifusionoftheindustrialrevolution[J].AmericanEconomicJournal:Macroeconomics,AmericanEconomicAsocia tion,2009,1(1):1-25. [8]GROSSMANGM,HELPMANE.Innovationandgrowthintheglobaleconomy[M].Cambridge,Mas:MITPres,1991. [9]HELPMANE.Themysteryofeconomicgrowth[M].Cambridge,Masachusets:HarvardUniversityPres,2004. [10]SPENCEM.Productselection,fixedcosts,andmonopolisticcompetition[J].ReviewofEconomicStudies,1976,43(2):217-235. [11]DIXITAK,STIGLITZEJ.Monopolisticcompetitionandoptimumproductdiversity[J].TheAmericanEconomicReview,1977,67(3):297-308. [12]ROMERPM.Endogenoustechnologicalchange[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,98(1):71-102. [13]AGHIONP,HOWITTP.Amodelofgrowththroughcreativedestruction[J].Econometrica,1992,60(2):323-351. [14]ENGLERF,GRANGERCW J.Cointegrationanderorcorection:representation,estimationandtesting[J].Econometrica,1987,55(2): 251-76. [15]JOHANSENS,JUSELIUSK.Maximumlikelihoodestimationandinferenceoncointegration withapplicationstothedemandformoney[j]. OxfordBuletinofEconomicsandStatistics,1990,52(2):169-210. [16]ROMERPM.Theoriginsofendogenousgrowth[J].JournalofEconomicPerspectives,1994,8(1):3-22. RelationshipofImportwithEconomicGrowthRateinChina LIXuelin 1,2,CHENJingyu 3 (1.InstituteofDisasterPrevention,Langfang065201,China; 2.ChinaAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing100836,China; 3.TianjinForeignStudiesUniversity,Tianjin300270,China) Abstract:AccordingtothedataofChina seconomicgrowthsince1978,therateofimportgrowthisobviously higherthantherateofchina seconomicgrowth.thisphenomenoncanbeexplainedbyanendogenousgrowthmod elbasedondixit-stiglitzmodel.importincreasesthekindsofintermediateinputinthemodel.inthisproces thereisakindoftechnologyprogreswhichpromoteseconomicgrowth.themodelalsoshowsthatimportwilgrow fasterthaneconomy.theco integratedanalyseofthedatesupportsthetheory. Keywords:economicgrowth;foreightrade;technologyprogres;intermediateinput ( Z:_ `) 53