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: 2014 2010 2015/2014

الملخص The aim of this study is to know the effect of the number of the financial indicators on the prices of organizations shares in Dubai s stock exchange, these indicators are: share profitability, book value, shareholders return equity rate. The sample of the study was limited to three organizations out of five most active organizations in the market. This study was conducted during the period between 2010 and 2014. This was through the use of multiple linear regression and correlation analysis. The study concludes that there is a moral effect for share profitability, book value, shareholder s return equity rate with the shares prices of the organizations which are included in Dubai s stock exchange. Key words: share profitability, book value, shareholder s return equity rate, share prices, Dubai Stock Exchange. III

قائمة المحتويات I II III IV VI VII VIII X 30 30 IV

16 ARCH-LM VI

Jarque-Bera VII

VIII ARCH-LM

قائمة االختصارات والرموز Earning per share Book value per share Return On Equity EPS Earning Per Share DW Durbin et Watson s jarque Bera X

Eviews5 ج

Earning per share 1 3

Book value per share 3 http://basheikh.kau.edu.sa/files/0002834/files/3208_151.pdf 4

1 2 http://basheikh.kau.edu.sa/files/0002834/files/3208_151.pdf : 6

Kanwal Iqbal Khan & al. (2011 Can Dividend Decisions Affect the Stock Prices: A Case of Dividend Paying Companies of KSE KSE-100 1 Voir: Kanwal Iqbal Khan, Muhammad Aamir, Arslan Qayyum, Adeel Nasir, Maryam Iqbal Khan, Can Dividend Decisions Affect the Stock Prices: A Case of Dividend Paying Companies of KSE, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue.76, 2011. 7

)3122( Seyed & al. Fitting the Relationship between Financial Variables and Stock Price through Fuzzy Regression Case study: Iran Khodro Company Profitability Levels And The Relation Between Earnings, EQUITY Value And Equity Book Value'' 1 Voir: Seyed Heidar Mirfakhr- Al Dini Hassan Dehghan Dehavi, Elham Zarezadeh, Hamed Armesh Mahmoud Manafi Saeed Zraezadehand, Fitting the Relationship between Financial Variables and Stock Price through Fuzzy Regression Case study: Iran Khodro Company, International Journal of Business and Social Science, Vol.2, No.11, June 2011, pp.140 146. 2 Voir: Parvane Azimi Dastgerdi, Profitability Levels And The Relation Between Earnings, Equity Value And Equity Book Value, Interdisciplinary Journal Of Contemporary Research In Business, Vol.4, No.3, July 2012, pp.295 305. 8

خالصة الفصل األول: -1-2 -3-4 9

EViews5 12

من أجل أحسن تمثيل لهذا المتغير فقد اعتمدنا على ROE BVPS EPS Eviews5 F-statistic 13

Excel Excel Eviews5 Eviews5 14

P 3 0 1EPS 2TR BVPS i β 1, β 2, β 3, β 4 EPS, TR, BVPS, ROE, Eviews5 Dependent Variable: P Method: Least Squares Date: 04/27/15 Time: 01:31 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 19.10720 3.513615 5.438046 0.0000 ROE 58.91872 13.22398 4.455444 0.0000 EPS -18.33051 4.140941-4.426653 0.0000 BVPS -6.134091 1.374592-4.462481 0.0000 R-squared 0.798135 Mean dependent var 3.096640 Adjusted R-squared 0.787321 S.D. dependent var 1.555066 S.E. of regression 0.717153 Akaike info criterion 2.237284 Sum squared resid 28.80123 Schwarz criterion 2.376907 Log likelihood -63.11852 F-statistic 73.80428 Durbin-Watson stat 0.721116 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Eviews5 15

P 19.107 18.330EPS 58.918ROE 6. 134BVPS β 2 β 2 = EPS β 2 H 1 H 0 β 2 β 2 = 16

ROE β 2 H 1 H 0 β 4 β 4 = BVPS β 4 H 1 H 0 β β β β 17

Durbin-Watson Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 20.33750 Probability 0.000000 Obs*R-squared 25.77766 Probability 0.000003 Eviews5 B-G ARCH-LM 18

ARCH-LM ARCH Test: F-statistic 3.749181 Probability 0.057797 Obs*R-squared 3.641229 Probability 0.056365 Eviews5 Farrer Glauber * 2 * 2 1 n 1 6 2k 5 ln H * 2 1 60 1 6 23 5 ln 0.395 53. 10 k 2 k 1 7. 81 2 0.05 (1*1) (0.648*0.648) ( 0.512) ( 0.512)*1 0.648*( 0.532) ( 0.532) ( 0.512)*0.648 ( 0.532)*1 0. 395 H 1 17 19

Jarque-Bera 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -1 0 1 Series: Residuals Sample 1 60 Observations 60 Mean 7.73E-15 Median -0.067709 Maximum 1.494087 Minimum -2.382557 Std. Dev. 0.698682 Skewness -0.230156 Kurtosis 3.920376 Jarque-Bera 2.647445 Probability 0.266143 2.05 3 7. 81 0 22

P 19.107 18.330EPS 58.918ROE 6. 134BVPS 8 6 4 2 1 0 2 0-1 -2-3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Residual Actual F itted 21

الخاتمة )Kanwal 2011 )الظاهر سنة (. 26

الخاتمة. 27

قائمة المراجع أوال : المصادر والمراجع بالغة العربية http://basheikh.kau.edu.sa/files/0002834/files/3208_151.pdf 29

قائمة المراجع ثانيا : المراجع بالغة باألجنبة Kanwal Iqbal Khan & al. (2011 Can Dividend Decisions Affect the Stock Prices: A Case of Dividend Paying Companies of KSE 3122 Seyed & al. Fitting the Relationship between Financial Variables and Stock Price through Fuzzy Regression Case study: Iran Khodro Company Profitability Levels And The Relation Between Earnings, EQUITY Value And Equity Book Value 32

المالحق Dependent Variable: P Method: Least Squares Date: 04/27/15 Time: 01:31 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 19.10720 3.513615 5.438046 0.0000 ROE 58.91872 13.22398 4.455444 0.0000 EPS -18.33051 4.140941-4.426653 0.0000 BVPS -6.134091 1.374592-4.462481 0.0000 R-squared 0.798135 Mean dependent var 3.096640 Adjusted R-squared 0.787321 S.D. dependent var 1.555066 S.E. of regression 0.717153 Akaike info criterion 2.237284 Sum squared resid 28.80123 Schwarz criterion 2.376907 Log likelihood -63.11852 F-statistic 73.80428 Durbin-Watson stat 0.721116 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Eviews5 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 20.33750 Probability 0.000000 Obs*R-squared 25.77766 Probability 0.000003 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 04/27/15 Time: 01:33 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -0.170581 2.722215-0.062663 0.9503 ROE -16.93897 10.69655-1.583592 0.1191 EPS -1.267666 3.223584-0.393248 0.6957 BVPS 0.207054 1.068441 0.193791 0.8471 RESID(-1) 0.709504 0.138512 5.122341 0.0000 RESID(-2) -0.018728 0.143170-0.130808 0.8964 R-squared 0.429628 Mean dependent var 7.73E-15 Adjusted R-squared 0.376815 S.D. dependent var 0.698682 S.E. of regression 0.551554 Akaike info criterion 1.742485 Sum squared resid 16.42743 Schwarz criterion 1.951919 Log likelihood -46.27455 F-statistic 8.134998 Durbin-Watson stat 1.726733 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000009 Eviews5 32

المالحق ARCH-LM ARCH Test: F-statistic 3.749181 Probability 0.057797 Obs*R-squared 3.641229 Probability 0.056365 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 04/27/15 Time: 01:34 Sample(adjusted): 2 60 Included observations: 59 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.363358 0.122256 2.972110 0.0043 RESID^2(-1) 0.249217 0.128709 1.936280 0.0578 R-squared 0.061716 Mean dependent var 0.480859 Adjusted R-squared 0.045255 S.D. dependent var 0.834310 S.E. of regression 0.815213 Akaike info criterion 2.462576 Sum squared resid 37.88064 Schwarz criterion 2.533001 Log likelihood -70.64601 F-statistic 3.749181 Durbin-Watson stat 1.992326 Prob(F-statistic) 0.057797 Eviews5 ROE EPS BVPS ROE 1.000000-0.512023-0.532871 EPS -0.512023 1.000000 0.648630 BVPS -0.532871 0.648630 1.000000 Eviews5 33

المالحق الملحق رقم 5 : متغيرات الذراسة x3 x2 x1 y N BVPS ROE EPS P 2,50466734 0,01671479 0,10155689 2,21041244 1 2010 2,50466734 0,01671479 0,10609012 2,11596167 2 2,55718356 0,0102322 0,0273054 2,80012077 3 2,55718356 0,0102322 0,0285564 2,677453 4 2,55718356 0,0102322 0,03282024 2,32961165 5 2,62211079 0,04089361 0,05169593 2,10216579 6 2,62118773 0,00998235 0,10621647 2,20068507 7 2,62118773 0,00998235 0,10744129 2,17559748 8 2,62118773 0,00998235 0,09130608 2,56005946 9 2,62118773 0,00998235 0,08919556 2,62063474 10 2,68081531 0,00976032 0,08906412 2,38022082 11 2,68081531 0,00976032 0,08987174 2,3588313 12 2,68081531 0,00976032 0,10262209 2,06575684 1 2011 2,68081531 0,00976032 0,11785325 1,79878183 2 2,64913186 0 0,08808781 2,06438137 3 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,08553038 2,12610789 4 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,0910602 1,9969957 5 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,09553051 1,90354718 6 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,0982226 1,85137465 7 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,09886284 1,83938492 8 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,10340734 1,75854847 9 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,10406193 1,74748661 10 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,10758038 1,69033448 11 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,1145104 1,58803761 12 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,10828325 1,67936244 1 2012 2,64913186 0,01475233 0,0852804 2,13234025 2 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06775567 2,04659831 3 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06376759 2,17459453 4 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,07274489 1,90623194 5 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,07492154 1,85085142 6 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06559033 2,1141629 7 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06766668 2,04928983 8 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06590203 2,10416348 9 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06364979 2,17861893 10 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06308263 2,1982065 11 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,06308263 2,1982065 12 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,04874634 2,84469856 1 2013 2,66477713 0,01647642 0,04705227 2,94711899 2 2,74174034 0,01418601 0,05342095 2,7413481 3 2,74174034 0,01418601 0,04828408 3,03299616 4 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,04093377 3,25169109 5 34

المالحق 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,04436133 3,00045093 6 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,03857184 3,45080763 7 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,04053325 3,28382219 8 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,03813733 3,4901238 9 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,03568121 3,73036594 10 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,03553717 3,74548674 11 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,0304549 4,37052812 12 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,02775381 4,795881 1 2014 2,49196307 0,01418601 0,02324958 5,72500606 2 2,57383715 0,03721113 0,02697174 6,28549839 3 2,48228838 0,0393605 0,02335901 6,999473 4 2,32287894 0,04212512 0,0216388 7,07067849 5 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,03490036 4,73355358 6 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,02783266 5,93557043 7 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,02510214 6,58122036 8 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,02489 6,63731407 9 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,02879553 5,73709603 10 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,02911778 5,67360376 11 2,45420136 0,03071263 0,039914 4,13896714 12 35

الفهرس I II III IV VI VII VIII X 30 30 37

الفهرس 38