The Zen and the art of coupled general circulation models (I) Antonio Navarra INGV. INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

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1 Zen art coupled general circulation models (I) Antonio Navarra INGV INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

2 Aristotele Raffello, la Scuola di Atene De De Δε Δε Meteorologica Μετεορολογιχα Ηοωεϖερ, However, Ηοωεϖερ, However, all all αλλ αλλ τηε mouths τηε mouths μουτησ μουτησ οφ οφ Nile, Nile, τηε τηε with with Νιλε, Νιλε, ωιτη ωιτη sgle sgle τηε τηε exception exception σινγλε σινγλε εξχεπτιον εξχεπτιον that thatat at Canopus, Canopus, οφ οφ τηατ τηατατ are ατ are Χανοπυσ, obviously Χανοπυσ, obviouslyartificial αρε αρε οβϖιουσλψ οβϖιουσλψ not notnatural. natural. αρτιφιχιαλ αρτιφιχιαλ And And Egypt Egypt ανδ ανδ was was νοτ νοτ nothg nothg νατυραλ. νατυραλ. more more Ανδ than Ανδ than Εγψπτ what Εγψπτ whatisis ωασ called ωασ called νοτηινγ νοτηινγ bes, bes, μορε μορε as ashomer, τηαν τηανωηατ too, too, shows, shows, ισ ισχαλλεδ modern modern Τηεβεσ, though Τηεβεσ, thoughhe he ασ ασ is is Ηομερ, Ηομερ, relation relation τοο, τοο, to tosuch σηοωσ, σηοωσ, changes. changes. μοδερν μοδερντηουγη τηουγηηε ηεισισιν ιν ρελατιον ρελατιον το τοσυχη συχηχηανγεσ. χηανγεσ. (...) (...) Τηισ ( ) Τηισ ( ) ηαππενεδ ηαππενεδτο τοτηε τηε λανδ λανδ οφ οφ Αργοσ Αργοσανδ ανδ Μψχεναε Μψχεναειν ιν Γρεεχε. Γρεεχε. Ιν Ιν τηε τηε τιμε τιμε οφ οφ τηε τηε Τροϕαν Τροϕανωαρσ ωαρστηε τηε Αργιϖε This Αργιϖε Thishappened happened λανδ λανδ ωασ to ωασ to μαρσηψ μαρσηψ l l Argos Argos ανδ ανδ χουλδ χουλδ Mycenae Mycenae ονλψ ονλψσυππορτ Greece. Greece. α σμαλλ In σμαλλ In time time ποπυλατιον, ποπυλατιον, Trojan Trojan ωηερεασ ωηερεασ wars wars τηε τηε Argive Argive λανδ λανδ l l οφ οφ Μψχεναε was Μψχεναε wasmarshy ωασ ωασ ιν could ιν could γοοδ γοοδ only only χονδιτιον. χονδιτιον. support supporta a Βυτ Βυτ small small νοω νοω population, population, τηε τηε οπποσιτε οπποσιτε whereas whereas ισ ιστηε l l χασε, χασε, φορ Mycenae φορ Mycenae τηε τηε ρεασον ρεασον was was good good ωε ωεηαϖε condition. condition. μεντιονεδ: But μεντιονεδ: Butnow now τηε opposite τηε opposite λανδ λανδ is is οφ οφ Μψχεναε Μψχεναε case, case, for for ηασ ηασ reason reason βεχομε βεχομε we we χομπλετελψ χομπλετελψ have havementioned: δρψ δρψ ανδ ανδ l l βαρρεν, βαρρεν, Mycenae Mycenae ωηιλε ωηιλεhas has τηε τηε become become Αργιϖε Αργιϖε λανδ λανδ τηατ completely τηατ completely ωασ ωασφορμερλψ dry dry barren, barren, βαρρεν βαρρεν while while οωινγ οωινγ Argive Argive το τοτηε τηε l l ωατερ ωατερ that that ηασ ηασ was was νοω formerly νοω formerly βεχομε βεχομε barren barren φρυιτφυλ. φρυιτφυλ. owg owgtoto Νοω Νοω water water τηε τηε σαμε σαμε has hasnow προχεσσ προχεσσ τηατ become τηατ become ηασ ηασ fruitful. fruitful. τακεν τακεν Now Now πλαχε πλαχε ιν same ιν same τηισ τηισ process process σμαλλ σμαλλ that that διστριχτ διστριχτ has hastaken μυστ μυστ place place βε βε συπποσεδ συπποσεδ this thissmall small το district το district βε βεγοινγ must must ον ον be be οϖερ οϖερ supposed supposed ωηολε ωηολε to tobe be χουντριεσ gog χουντριεσ gogon on over over ανδ ανδ whole whole ον ον α countries countries λαργε λαργεσχαλε. on on a a large largescale. (...) (...) Σο ( ) Σο ( ) ιτ ιτισ ισχλεαρ, σινχε σινχετηερε τηερεωιλλ ωιλλβε βενο νο ενδ ενδ το τοτιμε τιμε ανδ ανδ τηε τηε ωορλδ ωορλδ ισ ισετερναλ, τηατ τηατνειτηερ νειτηερτηε τηε Ταναισ So Ταναισ So it itisisclear, νορ νορτηε sce τηε sce Νιλε Νιλε re re ηασ ηασ will will αλωαψσ be αλωαψσ beno no end end βεεν βεεν to totime time φλοωινγ, φλοωινγ, βυτ βυτ world world τηατ τηατ is iseternal, τηε τηε ρεγιον ρεγιον that thatneir ωηενχε ωηενχε τηεψ τηεψ Tanais Tanais φλοω φλοω nor nor ωασ ωασ Nile Nile ονχε ονχε δρψ: has δρψ: hasalways always φορ φορτηειρ been been εφφεχτ flowg, εφφεχτ flowg, μαψ μαψ but butthat that βε βεφυλφιλλεδ, region regionwhence βυτ βυττιμε τιμε y y χαννοτ. χαννοτ. flow flowwas was Ανδ Ανδ once once τηισ τηισ dry: dry: ωιλλ ωιλλ for for βε ir βε ir εθυαλλψ εθυαλλψ effect effectmay may τρυε τρυε be be οφ οφ αλλ αλλ οτηερ fulfilled, οτηερ fulfilled, ριϖερσ. ριϖερσ. but buttime time Βυτ Βυτ cannot. cannot. ιφ ιφριϖερσ And And this this χομε χομε will will ιντο ιντο be beequally equally εξιστενχε εξιστενχε true true ανδ ανδ all all περιση περιση or orrivers. rivers. ανδ ανδ τηε τηε But But σαμε σαμε if ifrivers παρτσ παρτσ come come οφ οφ to to τηε τηε existence existence εαρτη εαρτη ωερε ωερε perish perish νοτ νοταλωαψσ same same μοιστ, μοιστ, parts parts τηε τηε σεα σεα earth earth μυστ μυστ were were νεεδσ νεεδσ not not χηανγε χηανγε always always χορρεσπονδινγλψ. moist, χορρεσπονδινγλψ. moist, sea seamust mustneeds Ανδ Ανδ ιφ ιφ change change τηε τηε σεα σεαισ ισαλωαψσ αδϖανχινγ correspondgly. αδϖανχινγ correspondgly. ιν ιν ονε ονε And And πλαχε πλαχε if if ανδ ανδ sea sea ρεχεδινγ is ρεχεδινγ isalways ιν advancg ιν advancg ανοτηερ ανοτηερ ιτ ιτ one one ισ ισplace place χλεαρ χλεαρ τηατ τηατ recedg recedg τηε τηε σαμε σαμε anor anor παρτσ παρτσ it it οφ is οφ isclear τηε τηε ωηολε that ωηολε that εαρτη same εαρτη sameparts αρε αρε νοτ νοτ αλωαψσ αλωαψσ whole whole earth earth ειτηερ ειτηερ are are not not σεα σεαalways always ορ ορ λανδ, λανδ, eir eir βυτ βυτ sea sea τηατ τηατ or or l, l, αλλ αλλ but but τηισ τηισ that that χηανγεσ χηανγεσ all all this thischanges ιν ιν χουρσε χουρσε course course οφ οφ τιμε. τιμε. time. time. INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

3 Medieval Warm Period vikgs vikgsread readcolonize colonizeicel Icel reach reach Greenl Greenl INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Erik Erikil il Rosso,viaggia Rosso,viaggia e e fonda fonda colonie colonie Groenlia Groenlia e e Nord Nord America America (Vel) (Vel)

4 little ice age INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy After After thgs thgschange change temperatures temperaturesget getlower over over EuroAtlantic. EuroAtlantic. Bruegel, scena d verno

5 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Giacomo Leopardi Zibaldone, Zibaldone, Egli Egli e e pur pur certo certo che che l antico l antico orde orde delle delle stagioni stagioni par par che che vada vada pervertendosi. pervertendosi. Qui Qui Italia Italia e e querela querela comune comune che che i i mezzi mezzi tempi tempi non non vi vi son sonpiu, piu, e e questo questo smarrimento smarrimento di di confi, confi, non non vi vi e e dubbio dubbio che che il il freddo freddo acquista acquista terreno. terreno. Io Io ho ho udito udito dire dire a a mio mio padre padre che che sua sua gioventu gioventu a a Roma, Roma, la la matta matta della della Pasqua Pasqua di di resurrezione resurrezione si si rivestiva rivestiva da da estate.(magalotti estate.(magalotti,, 1683). 1683). ( ) ( ) Quello Quello che che tuti tutoi noi sappiamo,e sappiamo,e che che io io mi mi ricordo ricordo bene, bene, e e che che ne ne la la mia mia fanciullezza fanciullezza il il mezzogiorno mezzogiorno d Italia d Italia non non aveva aveva anno anno senza senza grosse grosse nevi,e nevi,e che che ora ora non non ha ha quasi quasi anno anno senza senza nevi nevi che che duro duro piu piu di di poche poche ore ore

6 T.S. Eliot INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Waste WasteL I. I. Burial Burial Dead Dead April April is is cruelest cruelest month, month, breedg breedg Lilacs Lilacsout out dead deadl, mixg mixg Memory Memory desire, desire, stirrg stirrg Dull Dull roots roots with with sprg sprg ra. ra. Wter Wter kept kept us us warm, warm, coverg coverg Earth Earth forgetful forgetfulsnow, snow, feedg feedg A little littlelife lifewith with dried dried tubers. tubers. Summer Summer surprised surprised us, us, comg comgover over Starnbergersee Starnbergersee With Withaa shower shower ra; ra; we we stopped stopped colonnade, colonnade, we wewent. went.

7 Seasonal Cycle INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

8 Climate System Atmosphere Evaporation Precipitation Sea-Ice Oceans Biosphere Run-Off Soil Moisture

9 Radiazione Solare La Maccha del Clima Radiazione Terrestre INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

10 Il Bilancio di Radiazione Radiazione Solare Bilancio Netto Radiazione Terrestre INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Polo Nord Polo Sud

11 General Circulation Hadley (1735) Ferrel (1856) INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Bergeron (1928) different ories general circulation from Hadley(1735) to to Bergeron (1928)

12 A globalized climate INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy A nunmber nunmber unprecendented unprecendented fames fames hit hit India India second second half half XIX XIX century century (1861,1866,1876- (1861,1866, , 1878, ) ). tegration tegration tropical tropical agriculture agriculture to to european european system system sponsored sponsored by by colonial colonial regimes regimes amplified amplified effects effects fame. fame. It It was was realized realized that that ras ras had had failed failed not not only only India, India, but but also also Cha Cha Brasil. Brasil. economist economist statistician statistician Stanley Stanley Jevons Jevons produced produced a a ory ory exaplag exaplag periodic periodic economic economic crisis crisis as as an an agricultural agricultural crisis, crisis, connected connected to to wear wear failures, failures, caused caused by by sunspot sunspot cycle. cycle. Sir Sir Gilbert Gilbert Walker, Walker, Director Director Indian Indian Wear Wear Service Service tried tried to to look look systematically systematically for for remote remote connections connections hyposize hyposize by by Jevons Jevons he he looked looked systematically systematically (toger (toger with with his his collaboratore collaboratore Bliss) Bliss) mamatical mamatical correlation correlation among among various various climate climate fields, fields, mostly mostly precipitation, precipitation, surface surface pressure pressure river river runf. runf. result result huge huge fishg fishg expeditionwas expeditionwas discovery discovery several several teleconnections, teleconnections, such such as as Sourn Sourn Oscillation Oscillation

13 Teleconnections NAO Monsoon PNA PNA PNA PNA North Atlantic Oscillation Sahel SST SST Nordeste teractions teractions between between atmosphere atmosphere oceans oceans tropics tropics domate domate variability variability at at terannual terannual scales. scales. ma ma player player is is variability variability equatorial equatorial Pacific. Pacific. Wavetras Wavetras anomaly anomaly stem stem from from region region to to mid-latitudes, mid-latitudes, as as Pacific Pacific North North American American Pattern Pattern (PNA). (PNA). tropics tropics are are connected connected through through Pacific Pacific SST SST fluence fluence on on Indian Indian Ocean Ocean SST SST monsoon, monsoon, Sahel Sahel Nordeste Nordeste precipitation. precipitation. It It has has been been proposed proposed that that certa certa years years circle circle is is closed closed a a full full cha cha teleconnections teleconnections goes goes all all around around tropics. tropics. Also Also shown shown is is North North Atlantic Atlantic Oscillation Oscillation a a major major mode mode variability variability Euro_atlantic Euro_atlantic sector sector whose whose coupled coupled nature nature is is still still under under vestigation. vestigation.

14 rmohale Circulation Based on a CLIVAR transparency INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy teractions teractions between between atmosphere atmosphere ocean ocean high high latitudes latitudes drive drive long long term term circulation circulation deep deep ocean. ocean. Cold, Cold, dense dense water water sks sks t t he he north north Atlantic Atlantic Antarctica Antarctica fills fills ocean ocean bass bass before before reemergg reemergg as as warm warm surface surface waters. waters. Model Model studies studies have have shown shown that that or or circulation circulation are are possible possible with with skg skg takg takg place place North North Pacific Pacific as as well. well. We We do do not not know know if if this this possibility possibility has has ever ever been been realized realized durg durg history history planet. planet.

15 Coupled Phenomena INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Why is re a need for considerg coupled models? re are at least two major reasons why it is clear that realistic description climate cannot be done without considerg atmosphere ocean at same time Teleconnections teractions between atmosphere oceans tropics domate variability at terannual scales. Sea Surface Temperature affects atmosphere generatg giant patterns that extend over planet rmohale Circulation deep oceanic circulations is driven by fluxes heat fresh water that change temperature sality water. Dense water (cold sale) sk deep down creatg a worldwide circulation as light water (fresh warm) upwells through world ocean, affectg global sea surface temperatures, which turn change domant mode climate variability through teleconnections.

16 Michelson-Morley Experiment INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

17 Primitive Equations INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy du dt dv dt 2Ωsθv + 2Ωsθu uv tanθ uw + = a a 2 u tanθ vw + = a a Φ = p dt dt αω = + Q& c p ω r = v p 1 Φ + a cosθ λ 1 Φ + Fθ a θ RT p F λ

18 Numerical Methods Discretize atmosphere L.F. L.F. Richardson, Numerical Wear Forecasts

19 Precipitation INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Bol Davies Charney Rossby Smagorsky Meteorologists front front Electronic Computer Project Project at at Institute Institute for for Advanced Study Study (Prceton)

20 Requirements INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy From From origal origal proposal for for Wear Forecast Project Project (1946): (1946): ( ) ( ) We We propose propose to to build build a fully fully automatic. Electronic, digital digital mache with with followg characteristics: Bary Bary operations Precision between between bits bits Vacuum tube tube operation at at 1MHz 1MHz Multiplication time time milliseconds. Electronic memory memory 12KB 12KB Logical mamatical control control Tapes Tapes put/output Graphics (oscilloscope) output output Dissipation less less than than KW KW Budget Budget $, $, yearly yearly

21 Discretization Methods INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy atmosphere ocean are divided computational cells: (Temperature, Wd, Ra, Sea Ice, SST, Sality, ) both horizontally vertically. dimensions cell are usually not same atmosphere ocean component because different dynamics. Dimension cell (resolution) km

22 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Courtesy Dr. Watanabe

23 Hadley Circulation Zonal Wd INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

24 360Hr INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Dishpan Experiment Slow Acceleration 240 Hr 144Hr 72Hr