The Challenge of Climate Science

Transcript

1 The Challenge of Climate Science Antonio Navarra Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici INGV INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

2 Aristotele Raffello, la Scuola di Atene ε De Μετεορολογιχα Meteorologica INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Ηοωεϖερ, However, αλλ all the τηε mouths µουτησ of the οφ τηε Nile, Νιλε, with ωιτη the single τηε σινγλε exception εξχεπτιον of that at οφ Canopus, τηατ ατ are Χανοπυσ, obviously αρε artificial οβϖιο υσλψ and not αρτιφιχιαλ natural. And ανδ Egypt νοτ νατυραλ. was nothing Ανδ more Εγψπτ than ωασ what νοτηινγ is called µορε Thebes, τηαν as ωηατ Homer, ισ too, χαλλεδ shows, Τηεβεσ, modern ασ Ηοµερ, τοο, σηοωσ, though µοδερν he is τηουγη in relation ηε ισ to ιν such ρελατιον changes. το συχη χηανγεσ. (...) Τηισ ηαππενεδ το τηε λανδ οφ Αργοσ ανδ Μψχεναε ( ) ιν Γρεεχε. Ιν τηε τιµε οφ τηε Τροϕαν ωαρσ τηε Αργιϖε This happened λανδ ωασ to the µαρσηψ land of Argos ανδ χουλδ and Mycenae ονλψ συππορτ in Greece. α σµαλλ In the time ποπυλατιον, of the Trojan ωηερεασ wars the τηε Argive λανδ land οφ Μψχεναε was marshy ωασ and ιν could γοοδ only χονδιτιον. support a Βυτ small νοω population, τηε οπποσιτε whereas ισ τηε the land χασε, of φορ Mycenae τηε ρεασον was in good ωε ηαϖε condition. µεντι ονεδ: But τηε now λανδ the opposite οφ Μψχεναε is the ηασ case, βεχοµε for the reason χοµπλετελψ we have δρψ mentioned: ανδ βαρρεν, the land ωηιλε of Mycenae τηε Αργιϖε has λανδ become τηατ ωασ completely φορµερλψ dry βαρρεν and barren, οωινγ while το τηε the Argive ωατερ land ηασ that νοω was βεχοµε formerly φρυιτφυλ. barren owing Νοω τηε to the σαµε water προχεσσ has now τηα τ ηασ become τακεν fruitful. πλαχε Now ιν τηισ the same σµαλλ process διστριχτ that has µυστ taken βε συπποσεδ place in this το small βε γοινγ district ον must οϖερ be ωηολε supposed χουντριεσ to be going on over ανδ whole ον countries α λαργε σχαλε. and on a large scale. (...) Σο ιτ ισ χλεαρ, σινχε τηερε ωιλλ βε νο ενδ το τιµε ( ) ανδ τηε ωορλδ ισ ετερναλ, τηατ νειτηερ τηε Ταν αισ So it νορ is clear, τηε Νιλε since ηασ there αλωαψσ will be no βεεν end φλοωινγ, to time and βυτ the τηατ world τηε is ρεγιον eternal, ωηενχε that neither τηεψ the φλοω Tanais ωασ nor ονχε the Nile δρψ : φορ has τηειρ always εφφεχτ been µαψ flowing, βε φυλφιλλεδ, but that the βυτ region τιµε whence χαννοτ. they Ανδ flow τηισ was ωιλλ once βε dry: εθυαλλψ for their τρυε effect οφ may αλλ be οτηε ρ fulfilled, ριϖερσ. but Βυτ time ιφ ριϖερσ cannot. χοµε And this ιντο will εξιστενχε be equally ανδ true περιση of all other ανδ τηε rivers. σαµε But παρτσ if rivers οφ come τηε εαρτη into existence ωερε νο τ αλωαψσ and µοιστ, perish and τηε the σεα same µυστ parts νεεδσ of the χηανγε earth χορρεσπονδινγλψ. were not always moist, Ανδ the ιφ sea τηε must σεα needs ισ αλωαψσ change αδϖαν χινγ correspondingly. ιν ονε πλαχε And ανδ if ρεχεδινγ the sea is ιν always ανοτηερ advancing ιτ ισ χλεαρ in one τηατ place τηε and σαµε receding παρτσ in another οφ τηε it ωηολε is clear εαρτη that the α same parts ρε νοτ of the αλωαψσ whole earth ειτηερ are σεα not ορ always λανδ, either βυτ sea τηατ or αλλ land, τηισ but that χηανγεσ all this ιν changes χουρσε in οφ course τιµε. of time.

3 T.S. Eliot INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy The Waste Land I. The Burial of the Dead April is the cruelest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull roots with spring rain. Winter kept us warm, covering Earth in forgetful snow, feeding A little life with dried tubers. Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade, we went.

4 Il Sistema Clima Atmosfera Evaporazione Precipitazioni Ghiaccio Marino Oceani BIOSFERA Fiumi Umidita del Suolo

5 The Climate Machine Solar Radiation Earth Radiation

6 Carbon dioxide Valori massimi di anidride carbonica INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

7 Afro-Indian Sector: Mid-latitude Regimes Indian Monsoon Planetary waves and Westerlies Summer Indian Monsoon INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Sahel Region InterTropical Convergence Zone

8 The challenge of climate change Strongly science-based problem. A special responsibility for scientists to provide honest, accurate, sound science Global scope and complex interactions

9 A scientific consideration of climate (I) Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate? INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

10 A scientific consideration of climate (II) We can male experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate. INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods. We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

11 Le Equazioni di Navier-Stokes F g z p a v u w v t w F p a a vw a u u v v t v F p a a uw a uv v u v t u z ρ θ ρ θ θ λ θ ρ θ θ θ λ + = = + Ω = + Ω tan sin 2 cos 1 tan sin r r r Θ = Φ = r ( ) Rt p z w v u a v t Q dt dp C T v t T z a t p ρ ρ θ θ λ θ ρ ρ ρ ρ ρ = = = + cos cos 1 r r 0 0; Θ Θ = Φ = g z v r

12 The next generation of numerical models will be like INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

13 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

14 The Structure of the CMCC Numerical Methods Climate Research Software Development INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Agricultural Impacts: Forests Agricultural Impacts: Crops Impacts: Mediterranean Sea Numerical Simulations Impacts: The Coastal Zone Impacts: Energy and Economy Impacts: Health

15 CMCC Supercomputing Center LAN 1 Gbit/s NEC Vector/Parallel Supercomputer 4 SX-8R + 5 SX cpu. 3 TBytes RAM 11,2 TFlops Scalar/Parallel Supercomputer IBM Sp6 ~ 1000 cpu 3,2 TBytes RAM 18 TFlops Storage Area Network 12 Gbit/s aggregated Archive/Backup HA Cluster Server Disk Storage ~ 500 TBytes Tape Library 1800 Mbytes/sec 3 PBytes

16 CMCC Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Combiamenti Climatici IPCC standard resolution (T63) INGV-IPCC runs T106 resolution

17 T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km) Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)

18 THE SCENARIO SIMULATIONS INGV(CMCC) SXG IPCC Experiments: 1pccto4x [150y] CO 2 1pccto2x [150y] picntrl [100y] c3m [130y] sres a1b [100y] sres a2 [100y] TOT: [730y]

19 THE SCENARIO SIMULATIONS global mean surface temperature anomaly

20 SCENARIO: A2 20C precipitation A2( ) 20C( ) JFM A2( ) 20C( ) JFM A2( ) 20C( ) JAS A2( ) 20C( ) JAS mm/day INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

21 SCENARIO: A2 20C 2m-Temperature A2( ) 20C( ) JFM A2( ) 20C( ) JFM A2( ) 20C( ) JAS A2( ) 20C( ) JAS C INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

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23 Il modello ad alta risoluzione permette anche di esplorare la frequenza, intensita e dislocazione degli uragani tropicali.

24 TCs Number in ingv-sxg 1-2-4xCO2 exp. pre-ind ingv-sxg [30y] 2xCO2 ingv-sxg [30y] 4xCO2 ingv-sxg [30y]

25 CIRCE Climate Change and Impact ResearCh: the Mediterranean Environment An FP6 Project of the European Union INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana

26 The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts will be assessed. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area.

27 CIRCE Strategy Climate Dynamics Impacts Policy Social Dynamics Case Studies

28 What can we do? Mitigation: remove the causes of climate change, i.e. emissions Adaptation: prepare for the coming climate change

29 Mitigazione e Adattamento, Entrambi necessari, Entrambi limitati Mucche olandesi, dopo l adattamento

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31 Mitigazione e Adattamento, Entrambi necessari, Entrambi limitati Mucche olandesi, dopo l adattamento INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

32 Elements for Post-Kyoto Regime Effective Capable of realizing significant emission reduction Empowering Allowing emerging countries to continue their development path Fair Recognizing the historical responsibility of mature economies Shared A large societal consensus is needed to implement effectively the policies

33 Coalition Building

34 General Social Survey USA (I) INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy 86% - Satisfied of their job 76% - Satisfied of their income 62% - Expect their position to improve within the next three years 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives

35 General Social Survey USA (II) 25% - Think the country is not on the right track 80% - Think the Congress has accomplished nothing 60% - Expect next generation will be worst off INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

36 Happiness Gap INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government capability to handle them effectively There is a private-public happiness gap

37 Policy? INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy In this situation the demand on policymakers is to devise a policy to tackle with determination these large problems, but without touching the sphere of private satisfaction of the individual. Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands?

38 Ottimisti ma preoccupati INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy