La sfida della scienza del clima. Antonio Navarra Centro euromediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici INGV

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1 La sfida della scienza del clima Antonio Navarra Centro eurometerraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici INGV

2 Aristotele Raffello, la Scuola Atene De De ε ε Meteorologica Μετεορολογιχα Ηοωεϖερ, However, Ηοωεϖερ, However, all all αλλ αλλ τηε mouths τηε mouths µουτησ µουτησ of of οφ οφ Nile, Nile, τηε τηε with with Νιλε, Νιλε, ωιτη ωιτη sgle sgle τηε τηε exception exception σινγλε σινγλε εξχεπτιον εξχεπτιον of of that that at at Canopus, Canopus, οφ οφ τηατ τηατ ατ are ατ are Χανοπυσ, obviously Χανοπυσ, obviously artificial artificial αρε αρε οβϖιουσλψ and οβϖιουσλψ and not not natural. natural. αρτιφιχιαλ αρτιφιχιαλ And And Egypt Egypt ανδ ανδ was was νοτ νοτ nothg nothg νατυραλ. νατυραλ. more more Ανδ than Ανδ than Εγψπτ what Εγψπτ what is is ωασ called ωασ called νοτηινγ νοτηινγ Thebes, Thebes, µορε µορε as as Homer, Homer, τηαν τηαν ωηατ too, ωηατ too, shows, shows, ισ ισ χαλλεδ χαλλεδ modern modern Τηεβεσ, though Τηεβεσ, though he he ασ ασ is is Ηοµερ, Ηοµερ, relation relation τοο, τοο, to to such such σηοωσ, σηοωσ, changes. changes. µοδερν µοδερν τηουγη τηουγη ηε ηε ισ ισ ιν ιν ρελατιον ρελατιον το τοσυχη χηανγεσ. χηανγεσ. (...) (...) Τηισ ( ) Τηισ ( ) ηαππενεδ ηαππενεδ το το τηε τηε λανδ λανδ οφ οφ Αργοσ Αργοσ ανδ ανδ Μψχεναε Μψχεναε ιν ιν Γρεεχε. Γρεεχε. Ιν Ιν τηε τηετιµε τιµε οφ οφ τηε τηε Τροϕαν Τροϕαν ωαρσ ωαρσ τηε τηε Αργιϖε This Αργιϖε This happened happened λανδ λανδ ωασ to ωασ to µαρσηψ µαρσηψ land land of of Argos Argos ανδ ανδ χουλδ χουλδ and and Mycenae Mycenae ονλψ ονλψ συππορτ συππορτ Greece. Greece. α σµαλλ In σµαλλ In time time ποπυλατιον, ποπυλατιον, of of Trojan Trojan ωηερεασ ωηερεασ wars wars τηε τηε Argive Argive λανδ λανδ land land οφ οφ was was Μψχεναε Μψχεναε marshy marshy ωασ ωασ and and ιν could ιν could γοοδ γοοδ only only χονδιτιον. χονδιτιον. support support a a Βυτ Βυτ small small νοω νοω population, population, τηε τηε οπποσιτε οπποσιτε whereas whereas ισ ισ τηε τηε land land χασε, χασε, of of φορ Mycenae φορ Mycenae τηε τηε ρεασον ρεασον was was good good ωε ωε ηαϖε ηαϖε contion. contion. But But µεντιονεδ: µεντιονεδ: now now τηε opposite τηε opposite λανδ λανδ is is οφ οφ Μψχεναε Μψχεναε case, case, for for ηασ ηασ reason reason βεχοµε βεχοµε we we χοµπλετελψ χοµπλετελψ have have mentioned: mentioned: δρψ δρψ ανδ ανδ land land βαρρεν, βαρρεν, of of Mycenae Mycenae ωηιλε ωηιλε has has τηε τηε become become Αργιϖε Αργιϖε λανδ λανδ completely completely τηατ τηατ ωασ ωασ φορµερλψ dry φορµερλψ dry and and barren, barren, βαρρεν βαρρεν while while οωινγ οωινγ Argive Argive το το τηε τηε land land ωατερ ωατερ that that ηασ ηασ was was νοω formerly νοω formerly βεχοµε βεχοµε barren barren φρυιτφυλ. φρυιτφυλ. owg owg to to Νοω Νοω water water τηε τηε σαµε σαµε has has now now προχεσσ προχεσσ become become τηατ τηατ ηασ ηασ fruitful. fruitful. τακεν τακεν Now Now πλαχε πλαχε ιν same ιν same τηισ τηισ process process σµαλλ σµαλλ that that διστριχτ διστριχτ has has taken taken µυστ µυστ place place βε βε συπποσεδ συπποσεδ this this small small το strict το strict βε βε γοινγ γοινγ must must ον ον be be οϖερ οϖερ supposed supposed ωηολε ωηολε to to be be gog gog χουντριεσ χουντριεσ on on over over ανδ ανδ whole whole ον ον α countries countries λαργε λαργε σχαλε. σχαλε. and and on on a a large large scale. scale. (...) (...) Σο ( ) Σο ( ) ιτ ιτ ισ ισ χλεαρ, χλεαρ, σινχε σινχε τηερε τηερε ωιλλ ωιλλ βε βε νο νο ενδ ενδ το το τιµε τιµε ανδ ανδ τηε τηε ωορλδ ωορλδισ ισ ετερναλ, ετερναλ, τηατ τηατ νειτηερ νειτηερ τηε τηε So So Ταναισ Ταναισ it it is is clear, clear, νορ νορ τηε sce τηε sce Νιλε Νιλε re re ηασ ηασ will will αλωαψσ be αλωαψσ be no no end end βεεν βεεν to to time time φλοωινγ, φλοωινγ, and and βυτ βυτ world world τηατ τηατ is is eternal, eternal, τηε τηε ρεγιον ρεγιον that that neir neir ωηενχε ωηενχε τηεψ τηεψ Tanais Tanais φλοω φλοω nor nor ωασ ωασ Nile Nile ονχε ονχε has has δρψ: δρψ: always always φορ φορ τηειρ τηειρ been been εφφεχτ flowg, εφφεχτ flowg, µαψ µαψ but but that that βε βε φυλφιλλεδ, φυλφιλλεδ, region region whence whence βυτ βυτ τιµε τιµε y y χαννοτ. χαννοτ. flow flow was was Ανδ Ανδ once once τηισ τηισ dry: dry: ωιλλ ωιλλ for for βε ir βε ir εθυαλλψ εθυαλλψ effect effect may may τρυε τρυε be be οφ οφ αλλ αλλ fulfilled, fulfilled, οτηερ οτηερ ριϖερσ. ριϖερσ. but but time time Βυτ Βυτ cannot. cannot. ιφ ιφ ριϖερσ ριϖερσ And And this this χοµε χοµε will will ιντο ιντο be be equally equally εξιστενχε εξιστενχε true true ανδ of ανδ of all all περιση περιση or or rivers. rivers. ανδ ανδ τηε τηε But But σαµε σαµε if if rivers rivers παρτσ παρτσ come come οφ οφ to to τηε τηε existence existence εαρτη εαρτη and and ωερε ωερε perish perish νοτ νοτ αλωαψσ and αλωαψσ and same same µοιστ, µοιστ, parts parts τηε τηε of of σεα σεα earth earth µυστ µυστ were were νεεδσ νεεδσ not not χηανγε χηανγε always always χορρεσπονδινγλψ. moist, χορρεσπονδινγλψ. moist, sea sea must must needs needs Ανδ Ανδ ιφ ιφ change change τηε τηε σεα σεα ισ ισ αλωαψσ αλωαψσ correspondgly. correspondgly. αδϖανχινγ αδϖανχινγ ιν ιν ονε ονε And And πλαχε πλαχε if if ανδ ανδ sea sea ρεχεδινγ is ρεχεδινγ is always always ιν advancg ιν advancg ανοτηερ ανοτηερ ιτ ιτ one one ισ ισ place place χλεαρ χλεαρ and and τηατ τηατ recedg recedg τηε τηε σαµε σαµε anor anor παρτσ παρτσ it it οφ is οφ is clear clear τηε τηε ωηολε that ωηολε that same same εαρτη εαρτη parts parts αρε αρε of of νοτ νοτ αλωαψσ αλωαψσ whole whole earth earth ειτηερ ειτηερ are are not not σεα σεα always always ορ ορ λανδ, λανδ, eir eir βυτ βυτ sea sea τηατ τηατ or or land, land, αλλ αλλ but but τηισ τηισ that that χηανγεσ χηανγεσ all all this this changes changes ιν ιν χουρσε χουρσε course course οφ οφ τιµε. τιµε. of of time. time. INGV - Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

3 Il Sistema Clima Atmosfera Evaporazione Precipitazioni Ghiaccio Maro Oceani BIOSFERA Fiumi Umita del Suolo

4 The Climate Mache Solar Raation Earth Raation

5 Globalizzazione del Clima Una Una serie serie carestie carestie senza senza precedenti, precedenti, i i cui cui effetti effetti furono furono moltiplicati moltiplicati dal dal regime regime coloniale, coloniale, colpi colpi l Ina l Ina nella nella seconda seconda meta meta del del XIX XIX secolo.(1861,1866, , secolo.(1861,1866, , ) ). L serimento L serimento dell agricoltura dell agricoltura tropical tropical nel nel sistema sistema europeo europeo mise mise rilievo rilievo che che la la carestia, carestia, prodotti prodotti dai dai fallimenti fallimenti della della stagione stagione delle delle piogge, piogge, non non erano erano solo solo limitati limitati all Ina, all Ina, ma ma si si erano erano verificate verificate anche anche Ca Ca e e Brasile. Brasile. Lo Lo sforzo sforzo comprendere comprendere si si allargo. allargo. Jevons, Jevons, ecoomista ecoomista e e statistico, statistico, elabaro elabaro una una teoria teoria secondo secondo la la quale quale i i cicli cicli delle delle macchie macchie solari solari fluenzavano fluenzavano i i cicli cicli economici economici e e special special modo modo un un ciclo ciclo unci unci anni anni tra tra crisi crisi fanziarie fanziarie che che aveva aveva appena appena scoperto. scoperto. Sir Sir Gilbert Gilbert Walker, Walker, rettore rettore del del servizio servizio meteorologico meteorologico ano ano nel nel cerco cerco prevedere prevedere le le variazioni variazioni terannuali terannuali dei dei monsoni monsoni collegate collegate ai ai sastri. sastri. Si Si imbarco imbarco una una colossale colossale fishg fishg expetion expetion per per cercare cercare trovare trovare relazioni relazioni che che collagassero collagassero i i monsoni monsoni ani ani ad ad altri altri fenomeni fenomeni climatici, climatici, coordando coordando uno uno sfrozo sfrozo raccolta raccolta dati dati senza senza precedenti. precedenti. Analizzando Analizzando i i dati dati che che gli gli arrivavano arrivavano da da tutto tutto l impero l impero fu fu grando grando viduare viduare una una serie serie relazioni relazioni a a lunga lunga stanza stanza tra tra la la pressione pressione al al suolo, suolo, cui cui la la piu piu famosa famosa e e la la piu piu importante importante e e l Oscillazione l Oscillazione Merionale. Merionale.

6 Teleconnections NAO Monsoon PNA PNA PNA PNA North Atlantic Oscillation Sahel SST SST Nordeste The The teractions teractions between between atmosphere atmosphere and and oceans oceans tropics tropics domate domate variability variability at at terannual terannual scales. scales. The The ma ma player player is is variability variability equatorial equatorial Pacific. Pacific. Wavetras Wavetras of of anomaly anomaly stem stem from from region region to to mid-latitudes, mid-latitudes, as as Pacific Pacific North North American American Pattern Pattern (PNA). (PNA). The The tropics tropics are are connected connected through through Pacific Pacific SST SST fluence fluence on on Inan Inan Ocean Ocean SST SST and and monsoon, monsoon, Sahel Sahel and and Nordeste Nordeste precipitation. precipitation. It It has has been been proposed proposed that that certa certa years years circle circle is is closed closed and and and and a a full full cha cha of of teleconnections teleconnections goes goes all all around around tropics. tropics. Also Also shown shown is is North North Atlantic Atlantic Oscillation Oscillation a a major major mode mode of of variability variability Euro_atlantic Euro_atlantic sector sector whose whose coupled coupled nature nature is is still still under under vestigation. vestigation.

7 A scientific consideration of climate (I) Crucial experiments like famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible climate science How is it possible a scientific vestigation of climate?

8 A scientific consideration of climate (II) We can make experiments if we represent climate system via a set of mamatical relations: equation of climate. The equation of climate are very fficult, but y can be solved by numerical methods. We can n treat very complex mamatical equations, payg price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

9 Every generation of numerical models is like a new, more powerful, telescope or particle accelerator and y will allow us to look furr to workg of Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

10 Numerical Methods Discretize atmosphere L.F. L.F. Richardson, Numerical Wear Forecasts

11 Precipitation Bol Davies Charney Rossby Smagorsky Meteorologists front front of of Electronic Computer Project Project at at Institute Institute for for Advanced Study Study (Prceton)

12 Sort of crowded at pole Grids for Earth

13 Stress del Vento EMISSIONE PIOGGE Modelli Matematici Rad. Solare Rad. Terrestre Vento Raazione RIFLESSIONE EMISSIONE RAFFREDDAMENTO RISCALDAMENTO TRASPORTO ASSORBIMENTO TRASPORTO PRESSIONE Temperatura Vapor Calore Latente Acqueo Calore Sensibile EVAPORAZIONE OCEANI -- SUOLO -- CRIOSFERA -- BIOSFERA

14 L anidride carbonica Valori massimi anidride carbonica

15 Global Temperature

16 The climate 2012: Arctic

17 The map above shows percent of comg sunlight Greenland reflected durg June through August 2012 compared to average of summers from Blue cates less sunlight reflected than average, with dark blue catg nearly 20 percent less sunlight than average reflected back to space. ( noaa.gov) A dark Greenland

18 Ocean reanalysis Sea Level (m) estimated by Circe reanalyses Lion Gyre Rhodes Gyre Algerian Current Atlantic Ionian Stream Levante anticyclonic Gyre

19 Ocean reanalysis Temperature C surface Whole Meterranean 1000 m 1400 m Western Bas Assimilation only sfc-1000 m Eastern Bas

20 Ocean reanalysis Sality practical sality units surface Whole Meterranean 1400 m Western Bas Eastern Bas

21 CO2 Scenarios N2O CH4

22 Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios The IPCC has been associated with four generations of emission scenarios Ma periods of use: SA90 ( , not shown), IS92 ( ), SRES ( ), RCPs (2012+) Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012

23 Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios Emissions are headg to a ºC likely crease temperature Large and sustaed mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC Lear terpolation is used between vidual datapots Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012;

24 RACCM Part I: AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION - Ch.2: Future Climate Projections Section 2.2 and Section 2.3: SIMULATIONS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS T2m and Precipitation projected trends T2m trend DJF Precip trend DJF T2m trend JJA Precip trend JJA 10*( C/decade) (mm/day)/decade INGV

25 Ci sono dei limiti all adattamento? Ci sono dei limiti all adattamento? Mucche olandesi, 2100 circa

26 La Struttura del CMCC Calcolo Scientifico e Operazioni Scenari Energetici Politiche Adattamento e Mitigazione Impatti Economici Esperimenti Numerici e Scenari Impatti sull Agricoltura Impatti sul Suolo e sulle Coste Servizio Climatico

27 Climate Change Impacts on GDP % change of GDP wrt no CC basele Italy Spa France Greece Malta % Cyprus Slovenia Croatia FYug Albania Turkey Tunis ia Morocco -2.0 RoNAfrica RoMdEast -2.5 RoNME RoA1 ChInd RoW World Med

28 Ottimisti ma preoccupati