1 Multicriteria analysis applied to a flood event on river Maritza/Evros Researcher Nina Dobrinkova Assoc.prof. Krassimira Genova Assoc.prof. Mariana Vassileva
2 In this presentation We will present you: Short description of the EVROS2010 project IIT-BAS role in the EVROS2010 An overview of the applications that we have supported for optimizing the work of the Civil Protection people during field exercise of the project
3 EVROS2010 project EVROS2010 project has been approved by the European Commission, DG Environment Civil Protection Unit project ( ) and it is the first European Dimension Field Test Simulation Exercise awarded to Greece with participation of Bulgarian partners from the Ministry of Interior-Directorate Civil protection and Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Decision Support System Department in IIT-BAS.
4 Main scope of the project The main objective of project EVROS2010 is to simulate the planning and response to a flooding event for the river EVROS Bring together teams from different countries working together Cooperate with scientific organizations to gain better optimization solutions in decision making
5 Hydrological river basins
6 ΕΒΡΟΣ ΠΟΤΑΜΟΣ Ν Ο Μ Ο Σ Ε Β Ρ Ο Υ ΟΡΜΕΝΙΟ ΙΚΑΙΑ ΙΛΟΦΟΣ ΜΑΡΑΣΙΑ Β Ο Υ Λ Γ Α Ρ Ι Α ΑΡ ΑΣ ΠΟΤΑΜΟΣ ΚΑΣΤΑΝIΕΣ ΝΕΑ ΒΥΣΣΑ ΟΡΕΣΤΙΑ Α Β Ο Υ Λ Γ Α Ρ Ι Α ΘΟΥΡΙΟ ΣΟΦΙΚΟ ΡΗΓΙO ΠΥΘΙΟ ΣΤΑΘΜΟΣ Ι ΥΜΟΤΕΙΧΟ ΠΕΤΡΑ ΕΣ ΠΡΑΓΓΙ ΜΙΚΡΟΧΩΡΙΟΝ ΝΕΟΙ ΨΑΘΑ ΕΣ ΑΜΟΡΙΟ ΜΑΝ ΡΑ ΚΙΣΣΑΡΙΟ ΛΑΒΑΡΑ ΣΟΥΦΛΙ Τ Ο Υ Ρ Κ Ι Α ΚΟΡΝΟΦΩΛΕΑ ΛΥΚΟΦΩΣ ΛΑΓΥΝΑ ΤΥΧΕΡO ΠΕΠΛΟΣ ΓΕΜΙΣΤΗ ΚΗΠΟΙ ΒΡΥΣΟΥΛΑ ΦΕΡΡΕΣ ΠΟΡΟΣ Areas along the river EVROS with flood events potential ΟΡΙΣΚΟΣ ΜΟΝΑΣΤΗΡΑΚΙ ΘΡΑΚΙΚΟ ΠΕΛΑΓΟΣ ΥΠΟΜΝΗΜΑ ΝΗΣΟΣ ΣΑΜΟΘΡΑΚΗ
7 The need of EVROS2010 project Floods of the river basin of Maritza/Evros river are common problem during the spring season Developing strategies for reaction based on floods in the past Evaluation of these strategies
8 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach MCDA is an approach which is ranking the possible alternatives There is no perfect solution when talking about MCDA, the chosen one is usually with accordance to the decision makers evaluations for reducing risk factors
9 Steps in MCDA decision making process (1)
10 Steps in MCDA decision making process (2) Steps necessary before arriving to a final decision: 1. Problem Identification 2. Problem structuring 3. Preference modeling 4. Aggregation and analysis of the results 5. Negotiation and achieving result All of the steps can be interconnected in backtracking and loops. The strength of MCDA methodology lies in the dynamic connection between all steps above.
11 Problem formulation In the time frame of the project EVROS2010 with main focus on flood events on river Maritza/Evros decision making problems has occurred, which could be solved with MCDA methods. An example scenario evaluated with MCDA approach is part from the exercise scenarios of the project and its scope in on Pragi village, municipality of Didymoteicho, where a flood event is coming according to the weather forecast.
12 Suitable strategies for the Civil Protection units The units are with International origin, that is why we propose criteria applicable for the different strategies for each team. Criteria 1) Minimizing of the financial expenditures for organizing the rescue actions. Criteria 2) Minimizing the agricultural losses. Criteria 3) Minimizing of the danger of mortality through the inhabitants.
13 Decision evaluation table used in the MKA-2 system Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Strategy 1 (No evacuation) Strategy 2 (Partially done evacuation) Strategy 3 (Full evacuation) A 11 A 12 A 13 A 21 A 22 A 23 A 31 A 32 A 33
14 MKA-2 system features Hierarchical additive weighting method (AHP) ELECTRE III method (outranking) PROMETHEE method (outranking) Classification-oriented interactive method (CBIM)
15 Working with MKA-2 system Problem definition Entering method-specific information Selecting method Examine the result
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