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1 μ 2011 μ μ ; μ. μ, Greg Hannsgen Gennaro Zezza μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ. μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ.,, μ μμ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ,, μ., μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μ «Jerome Levy». Greg Hannsgen μ μ. Gennaro Zezza μ Università di Cassino μ. Copyright 2012 Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

2 2 μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ 1 μ μ μ ( ) μ μ μ, μ μ, μ μ % μ μ μ μ μ, μ 1,1%. ( -μ μ 0,6% [Dalton 2011])., μ μ, μ μ, μ 1,9%. Figure 1 IMF Annual Real GDP Growth Forecasts World Advanced United States Eurozone Japan UK Developing China India Brazil Russia Percent Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database μ 2012 μ μ μ, μ μ μ -., μ, μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ μ μ 2012., μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μ 1,6% ,2% 2012 (OECD 2011). μ, μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ, μ μ

3 3 μ μ., μ μ μ μμ μ μ μ μ,, μ 20. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ, μ μ μ,.. μ 2 μ «μ μ» μμ μμ μμ, μμ μ «μ μ». μ μμ μ μ μ μ, μμ μμ μ μ μμ. μμ, μμ μ μ, μ , μμ μ μ. μ μμ 2013, μ μ μ. 2014, μμ μ μ μ μ μ μμ 194, μ 1,3%, 15. μμ, μ μ μ. μ μ 6,7% μ (St. Louis Fed 2011).

4 4 Figure 2 Current Account Balances 3 2 Percent of World GDP Rest of the World Oil Exporters Emerging Asia Germany and Japan Other Developed Countries United States Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database μ μ μ, μ, μ. ( μ, μ, μ μ μ, μ μ 2011 [ Parkin 2011]). μμ, «μ» μ μ μ μμ. μ μ μ μμ μ, μ, μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μμ, μ μ μ μ μ μ 10% μ μ μ. μ 3 μ μ μ ( μ μ ) μ μ μ μ μμ μ μ, μ μμ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μμ

5 5 μ 1,5% μ. μ, μμ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 3 US Main Sector Balances: Effects of a Devaluation* Percent of GDP External Balance Private Sector Investment minus Saving Government Deficit * Difference against baseline solution 2016 Source: Authors calculations μ, μ μ μ,,, μ. μ 4, μ μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, , μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ. μμ μ μ, μ μ μ μ μμ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ μ μ, μ.

6 6 Figure 4 Real Disposable Income, Wages, and Consumption 8 Annual Growth Rate in Percent Consumption Real Personal Disposable Income Real Wages Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) μ μ. μ 5, μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ, μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ.

7 7 Figure 5 Profits and Investment in Nonfinancial Business Percent of GDP Gross Saving (lagged 6 quarters) Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Equipment and Software 2010 Source: BEA μ μ μ μ μ ( μμ 6). μ ( μ ) (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) 3.4 μμ, 12.6 μμ μ (5.6 μμ 6.9 μμ ) μ (BLS 2011). μ, 5.6 μμ 27 μ, 8.3 μμ μ μ μ μ.

8 8 Figure 6 Employment as a Share of Working-age Population Percent Employment Note: Shaded areas indicate recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) μ, μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ.,, μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ (Bartlett 2011, Krugman 2011). μ μ μ μ , μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μμ. μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μ μ. μμ, μ, μ. μ, μ μ 7% % 1938, μ μμ 38% %

9 9 μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ 1938., μ μ μ μ μ 1.2 μμ μ μ μ μμ μ μ. -, μ μ 2013,,, μ μ. μ μ μ, 447,., μ μ μ μμ.,, μ μ. μ μ μ 1. μ 1 μ μ 1, 1., μ,, μ μ μ μ, μ., μ μ. μ, μ μ μ, μμ μ.,, «μ μ» μ μ. μ, μ, μ - μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ μ, (White House 2011).

10 10 A μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ (, μ,, μ μ,.)., μ μ μ μ μ (ASCE 2009). μ μ,, μ μ 2005, μ μ D+. μ μ, μμ μ μ 550 μ μ. μ 7, μ μ μ μ., μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ, μ μ bona fide μ μ μ 2012.

11 11 Figure 7 Government Investment* in OECD Countries, Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK United States Percent of GDP OECD average (2.83 percent) * Government expenditure on gross fixed capital formation 5 6 Source: OECD μ, μ ; μ, μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μμ μ,. μ Head Start, μ, Medicaid, μ μ (Antonopoulos et al, 2010, Kim Antonopoulos 2011)., μ, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ, μ., μ μ., μ μ, μ, μ.

12 12 μ μ 1 μ μμ μ μ. μ μ μ 100 μ μ (Barro 2011). μ μ μ,. μ μ, Alan Blinder μ μ : «, μ μμ μ μ μ μ... μ μ,, μ μ» (2011). μ, μ μ μ μ μ, μμ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ, - -,., μ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ., μ μ 100. μ, μ μ μ μ 60 μ μ. μ μ μ 6% 10% 20., μ μ μ μ μ 6% 60 μ, μ., μ, μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ (Barro 2011). μ μ μ μ 6% 10%. μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ

13 13. μ μ, μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ,,, μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ (Romer 2011). μ μ de facto μ μ μ μ μ μ. μμ, μ μ μ., μ μ μ, μ. μ μ μ 8. μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 8 Indexes of the Real Prices for Equities and Existing Homes (January 2000 = 100) Existing Home Price Index S&P 500 Index Sources: S&P; National Association of Realtors; BEA μ μ, μ, μ μ,.

14 14 Daniel Tarullo, μ μ μ, «μ μ μ μ μμ., μ» (2011,. 6)., μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ. 30 μ μ μ μ μ μμ. μ μ, μ Tarullo μ μ μ μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ 2 μ. μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ, μ : 84.2, μ μ, μ μ μ, μμ μ, 77 μ μ, 46.1 μ Treasury, 15.4 μ μ, μ μ (Federal Reserve, 2011b)., 1.5 μ μ μ (Federal Reserve 2011a) μ μ,.,, μ μ μ μ, μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ (Federal Reserve Board of Governors 2011c). μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ 9 μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ subprime. «μ» μ μ,,

15 15 μ, μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 9 Debt Burden 19 Disposable Personal Income in percent Financial Obligation Ratio Debt-service Ratio Source: Federal Reserve μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μμ μ μ, μ μ μ μμ μ. μ μ, μμ, μ μ μ μμ μ (CBO 2011). μ μ μ μ μ 2% μ., μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ. μ 10, μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ 2% μ μ 1,5% 2% μ. μ μ, μ 2012,, μ

16 16 9% μ ( μ 13). μ 10 μ μ μμ ( ) μ μ,, 94% μμ μ, μ μ μ. μ, μ μμ μ, μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 10 Baseline Scenario: US Main Sector Balances and Real GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate in Percent Government Deficit (right scale) External Balance (right scale) Private Sector Investment minus Saving (right scale) Real GDP Growth (left scale) Percent of GDP Sources: BEA; authors calculations, μ, μ μ μ.

17 17 1 μ μ μ μ 2013, μ μ μ μ, , μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μ μ μ μμ, μ μ 2012, 1.5 μ μ 2016., μ, μ, μ μ μ μμ., μ, μ 2,3% 2,8%, μ 2012, μ 11. μ 0,6% μ 2014, 1% μ. Figure 11 Scenario 1: US Main Sector Balances and Real GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate in Percent Government Deficit (right scale) External Balance (right scale) Private Sector Investment minus Saving (right scale) Real GDP Growth (left scale) Percent of GDP Sources: BEA; authors calculations μ μ, μ μ., μμ μ 0,2%, μ

18 18 μ μ. μμ μ, -2,6% μ. μ μ μμ, μ μμ μ. μ, μ, 2,4% μ μ. μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ.,, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, 10,7% μ 2016 ( 13). 2 μ μ μ μ μ 2, μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ : (1) μ μ μ 2%,, (2) μ μ μ 7% μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ 7% μ μ μ μ. μ 12, μ μ μ 2 μ. μ 2,4% μ ,0% μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ 2013., μ μ, 3,0%, μ μ.

19 19 Figure 12 Scenario 2: US Main Sector Balances and Real GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate in Percent Government Deficit (right scale) External Balance (right scale) Private Sector Investment minus Saving (right scale) Real GDP Growth (left scale) Percent of GDP Sources: BEA; authors calculations Figure 13 Unemployment Rate in Three Scenarios Percent of Labor Force Baseline (CBO Projections) Scenario 1 (Deficit Reduction) Scenario 2 (Fiscal Stimulus) Sources: BLS; authors calculations μ μ μμ μ μ, μ. μ μμ μ 2016, 6,5%, μμ μ μ μ μ μ μμ μ μ μ μ μ. μ, μμ μ,

20 20 μ μ μ. μ 12, μ 2 μ μ μ μ, μ μ μμ μ μ, μ -4,6% μ.,, μ μ μ μ μ, μ μμ 2,9% μ ,9% μ μμ 6,5% μ μ 6, μ 2005,, μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ, μ 14. μμ μ μμ, μ : 97,4% 2 94,4% μμ 91,1% 1. μ / μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. Figure 14 Public Debt under Alternative Assumptions Percent of GDP Baseline (CBO Projections) Scenario 1 (Deficit Reduction) Scenario 2 (Fiscal Stimulus) Sources: BEA; authors calculations

21 21 μ μ μ, μ., μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ. μ μ. μ, 24% μ 1970, μ μ 16%., μ μ ( ) μ μ., μ, μ μ., μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ, μ. μ 15 μ ( μ, μμ, μ μ, ) μ. μ,,, 2009, μ μ -., μ. μ, μ μ ( μ μ ), μ, μ μ μ μ., μ, μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ,,,. μ, μ 20% μ., μ μ μ μ, μ μ μ μ μ μ μ. μ μ, μ μ μ. μ μ μ μ Lehman Brothers μ μ, μ μ μ.

22 22 Figure 15 Total Foreign Debt Securities Held By the United States, 2009 Eurozone* ($497.3B) 25.3% Other ($444.1B) 22.7% United Kingdom ($396.6B) 20.3% Australia ($148.6B) 7.6% Canada ($245.2B) 12.5% Cayman Islands ($225.8B) 11.5% * Eurozone France ($105.9B) 5.4% Germany ($96.8B) 4.9% Greece ($1.8B) 0.1% Ireland ($40.8B) 2.1% Italy ($19.2B) 1.0% Luxembourg ($62.8B) 3.2% Netherlands ($124.1B) 6.3% Portugal ($0.9B) 0.0% Spain ($26.0B) 1.3% Other ($19.0B) 1.0% Source: IMF

23 23 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Report Card for America s Infrastructure: Executive Summary. Antonopoulos, Rania, Kijong Kim, Thomas Masterson, and Ajit Zacharias Investing in Care: A Strategy for Effective and Equitable Job Creation. Working Paper No Annandaleon-Hudson, N.Y.: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Barro, Robert J Keynesian Economics vs. Regular Economics. The Wall Street Journal, August 24. Bartlett, Bruce Are We bout to Repeat the Mistakes of 1937? The New York Times, July 12. Blinder, Alan The GOP Myth of Job-Killing Spending. The Wall Street Journal, June 21. Bureau Labor Statistics (BLS) Economic News Release. November Job Openings and Labor Turnover September November 8. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update. Washington, D.C. August. BudgetEconUpdate.pdf. Dalton, M Europe Slashes Its Growth Forecast. The Wall Street Journal, November 11. DiLeo, Luca, and Jon Hilsenreth Fed Lowers Its Jobs Forecast. The Wall Street Journal, November 3. Federal Reserve Board of Governors. 2011a. Aggregage Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base. H3 Release. Washington, D.C. November b. Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States. H8 Release. Washington, D.C. November c. Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States: Flows and Outstandings, Second Quarter Z1 Release. Washington, D.C. September 16.

24 d. October 2011 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Washington, D.C. November 7. Kim, Kijong, and Rania Antonopoulos Unpaid and Paid Care: The Effects of Child Care and Elder Care on the Standard of Living. Working Paper No Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Krugman, Paul in The New York Times, September 5. rganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook, No. 90. December. Data accessed at stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?datasetcode=eo90_flashfile_e090. Parkin, Brian Exports to Breach $1.3 Trillion in Sales for 2011, Shrugging Off Debt Woes. Bloomberg, November Romer, Christina Dear Ben: It s Time for Your Volcker Moment. The New York Times, October 29. Standard and Poor s S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Indices. com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexid=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----. Tarullo, Daniel K Unemployment, the Labor Market, and the Economy. Speech at the World Leaders Forum, Columbia University, New York, October 20. White House Fact Sheet: The American Jobs Act. Washington, D.C. September 8.

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