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1 : 3 : ,,,,,, : 20 70, ( FDI) (UNCTAD, 2003), FDI, 1500, 100 FDI,,,,,, FDI,, FDI,, FDI,,,, Haskel et al (2002),,, 1993, (UNCTAD, 1994) 3,, :315211, edu. cn ( : ; ) 80

2 2010 1,,,,,,,,,, FDI ( :,2000 ;,2008),, (, 2005,,2008 ;,2009), (2008), FDI,FDI,, (2009), FDI,, : ; ; ; (spillovers),, (Meyer, 2004) Ggrg & Greenaway (2002), ( Krugman 1991,p. 5), FDI ( intra2industry spillovers), (inter2industry spillovers),,,,,,, ( ) (Jeffrey et al,2005),,,, 81

3 : (Aitken & Harrison, 1999),,, (Blomstrom and Kokko,1996),,, (Haacker,1999),, - (core2periphery setting) (Uwe, 1996),,,, ( Yang, 1990),,,,, (Aitken & Harrison, 1999),,, Smarzynska &Mariana (2005), Krugman (1991) Bazo et al (2004),,,, Madariaga & Poncet (2005) (spatial autoregression), :,,,,,, :,, ;,,,, 82

4 ( ) Cobb2Douglas, FDI FDI Aitken & Harrison (1999) Caballero &Lyons (1989,1990), - : ln Q p, t = ln Q p, t Wln Q t + 3 ln K p, t + 4 lnl p, t + 5 ln FDI p, t Wln FDI t p + t + it (1) (1) p t, Q GDP, K,L, FDI W,, (1) 2 W, Wln Q t Wln FDI t - 1,, FDI Q,, (1), W : W ij = 1Πd 2 ij (2) d ij i j Keller (2002),,,, (1) ln FDI p, t - 1, Wln FDI p, t - 1,, FDI, FDI (perpetual inventory method) 10 % FDI (learning by doing) Islam (1995), (ln FDI p, t - 1 ), Oulton (1997),,Basu & Fernald (1995),,, (1), ( ), FDI,, Buckley et al. (2006) Driffield (2001),,, Q p, t - 1 ( Q, K, L) Q p, t - 1 Q p, t - 2, Q p, t - 3,, Q p, t - n,,, Lee et al (1998) Pesaran & Smith (1995), Oulton (1996), (specification) 83

5 : FDI ( Haskel et al, 2002), FDI FDI FDI ( ) (1), (1) ln Q p, t - 1, (OLS), (1),,,,,, FDI,,,,, GMM (1), Driscoll & Kraay (1998) GMM, (Newey & West,1987) Arellano & Bond (1991), ln Q p, t - 1 ln Q p, t - 1, (Oliveira & Fortunato,2006) Arellano &Bover (1995) Blundell &Bond (1998),GMM (1) : ln Q p, t = ln Q p, t Wln Q t + 3 ln K p, t + 4 lnl i, t + 5 ln FDI p, t Wln FDI t p, t (3) ln Q p, t - 2 ln Q p, t - 1, ln Q p, t, GMM, (Blundell et al,1992 ; Easterly et al,1997), , ,,, 28, 31, 644 (28 23),,,,, (3),, ( N) ( T),( Holtz2Eakin et al,1988),, GMM,, FDI ( ),, (ML) Bolnigen et al (2007) GMM, Matyas & Sevestre (1996) 84

6 (1) 1 1, Levin et al (2002) t2 Im et ( ) Levin, Lin Chuπs t2test ( ) Im, Pesaran Shinπs Wald ( ) al (2003) Wald 1 %, lnq p, t ln K p, t lnl p, t , ln FDI p, t : (1) % 5 % 1 % ; (2) ; (3) :ln Q p, t,ln K p, t,lnl p, t ln FDI p, t 2, ( ) ( N = 644) t2 t2, ln Q p, t ( Spatial Leg WlnQ t Model,SLM) ln K p, t (Spatial Error Model,SEM) lnl p, t Anselin (1995,2005) ln FDI p, t Wln FDI t , Lagrange ( ) gr 2 Multiplier (LM) : lag LM 2 (6) = (6) = err LM :, Sargan :, AR(1) 2 (1) Robust lag LM Robust AR(2) 2 (1) err LM,, : (1) % 5 % 1 % ; (2) -,, 2 (3) GMM,, Sargan, 2 ( ln Q p, t - 1 ) ( Wln Q t ), (specification) -,Sargan,, lag LM , err LM

7 : ( gr 2 ),,, ln Q p, t - 1 Wln Q t, 10 % ln Q p, t - 1, Wln Q t,,, ln FDI p, t - 1,,, ( ) Jaffe (1989,p. 957), 3 ( ) ( N = 448) Wln FDI t - 1 2, t2, lnq p, t ,, Wln Q t ln K p, t lnl p, t , ln FDI p, t , Wln FDI t (3) ( ), gr , : 2 (6) = 91369, Wln FDI p, t - 1, Krugman (1991) Madariaga & Poncet (2005), : Sargan : AR(1) 2 (1) AR(2) 2 (1) : (1) % 5 % 1 % ; (2) -,?,,,, ( ) Belderbos et al (2001),,,, 86

8 2010 1,,, , 1993, (Wang,2006 ; Buckley et al,2002),,, ;, ( ),,,,,,,,,,, 3 ln FDI p, t - 1, t -, ln FDI p, t - 1 Wln FDI t - 1,, 2 1,,, Wln Q t, ln FDI p, t - 1 Wln FDI t ,,, (ln ( K it ) ) (ln ( L it ) ),, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ln FDI p, t

9 :,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,2009 :,, 25 4,2005 ::, 8,2005 : 19, 4,2008 : :, ( ) 2,2008 : :, 1 Abreu,M.,De Groot, H.L. F., Florax, R.J. G. M.,2004, Space and Growth : a Survey of Empirical Evidence and Methods, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI Π3. Aitken,B and Harrison,A. E.,1999, Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence From Venezuela, American Economic Review, 89 (3), Anselin,L.,1995, Local Indicators of Spatial Association LISA, Geographical Analysis, 27 : 82. Anselin,L.,2005,Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDa : A Workbook, Spatial Analysis Laboratory, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science [ GeoDa - Workbook. pdf ]. Arellano,Manuel and Bond,Stephen R.,1991, Some Test of Specification for Panel Data : Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58 : Basu,S. and Fernald,J. G.,1995, Are Apparent Productive Spillover Effects a Figment of Specification Error? Journal of Monetary Economics, 36 : Bazo, Lopez Enrique,Vaya Esther and Artis Manuel.,2004, Regional Externalities and Growth : Evidence from European Regions, Journal of Regional Science, 44 (1) : Blomstrom,M. and Kokko,A.,1996, Multinational Spillovers and Spillovers, Stockholm School of Economics Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, 99. Blundell,R.,Bond, S.,Devereux,M.,Schiantarelli,F.,1992, Investment and Tobinπs Q : Evidence from Company Panel Data, Journal of Econometrics, 51 : Blonigen,B. A.,Davies, R. B., Waddell, G. R.,Naughton, H. T.,2007, FDI in Space : Spatial Autoregressive Relationships in Foreign Direct Investment, European Economic Review, 51 : Buckley,J. Peter,Clegg,Jeremy and Wang,Chengqi,2002, The Impact of Inward FDI on the Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms, Journal of International Business Studies, 33 (4) : Buckley,J. Peter.,Clegg,Jeremy & Wang,Chengqi,2006, Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Host Country Productivity : Evidence from the Chinese Electronics Industry, Transnational Corporations, 15 (1) : Caballero,R. and Lyons,R.,1990, Internal Versus External Economies in European Industry, European Economic Review, 34 : Cohen,Jeffrey P., Catherine,Paul and J. Morrison,2005, Agglomeration Economies and Industry Location Decisions : the Impacts of Spatial and Industrial Spillovers, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 35 : Driffield, N. L.,2001, The Impact of Domestic Productivity of Inward Investment in the UK, The Manchester School, 69 (1) : Driscoll,J. and Kraay,A.,1998, Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependant Panel Data, Review of Economic and Statistics,80 :

10 Easterly, W., Loayza, N., Montiel, P.,1997, Has Latin Americaπs Post2Reform Growth been Disappointing?, Journal of International Economics, 43 : Ggrg, H. and Greenaway, D.,2002, Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment? CEPR Discussion Paper No (London : Centre for Economic Policy Research). Haacker, Markus, 1999, Spillover from Foreign Investment Through Labour Turnover : the Supply of Management Skills, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics. Haskel, Jonathan E., Sonia C. Pereira and Matthew J. Slaughter,2002, Does Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms, Working Paper, No. 452 (London : Queen Mary, University of London). Holtz2Eakin,D.,Newey,W. and Rosen, H.,1988, Estimating Vector Auto2regressions with Panel Data, Econometrica, 56 (6) : Jaffe,A. B.,1989, Real Effects of Academic Research, American Economic Review, 79 : Islam, N.,1995, Growth Empirics, A Panel Data Approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 60 : Krugman, Paul,1996, How the Economy Organizes Itself in Space : A Survey of the New Economic Geography, Working Papers , Santa Fe Institute. Krugman, P.,1991, Increasing Returns and Economic Geography, Journal of Political Economy, 99 (3) : Lee,K.,Pesaran,M. H. and Smith,R.,1998, Growth Empirics,A Panel Data Approach A Comment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 63 : Liu,Xiaming, Siler, Pamela, Wang, Chengqi & Wei,Yingqi,2000, Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment : Evidence from UK Industry Level Panel Data, Journal of International Business Studies, 31 (3), Madariaga Nicole and Poncet Sandra, 2005, FDI Impact on Growth : Spatial Evidence from China, http :ΠΠwww. cerdi. orgπcolloqueπ CHINE2005ΠpapierΠPoncet - 171pdf Dordrecht. Matyas,L.,Sevestre,P. ( Eds. ), 1996, The Econometrics of Panel Data : A Handbook of the Theory with Applications, Kluwer Academic, Meyer E. K.,2004, Perspectives on Multinational Enterprises in Emerging Economies, Journal of International Business Studies, 35 (4), Oliveira,B. and Fortunato, A., 2006, Testing Gibratπs Law : Empirical Evidence from a Panel of Portuguese Manufacturing Firms, International Journal of the Economics and Business, 13 (1) : Oulton, N.,1996, Increasing Returns and Externalities in UKManufacturing : Myth or Reality? Journal of Industrial Economics, 44 : Oulton, N.,1997, Total Factor Productivity Growth and the Role of Externalities, National Institute Review, 162 : Pesaran, M. and Smith, R.,1995, Estimating Long Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 68 : Smarzynska, Javorcik Beata and Mariana Spatareanu,2005, Disentangling FDI Spillover Effects : What do Firm Perceptions Tell Us?, in Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development? Edited by Theodore H. Moran,Edward M. Graham,and Magnus Blomstrom, Washington D. C. UNCTAD, 2003,World Investment Report, New York, UN. UNCTAD, 1994,World Investment Report, New York, UN. Uwe,Walz,1996, Transport Costs,Intermediate Goods,and Localized Growth, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26 : Wang,Chengqi,2007, Heterogeneity of Firms and Spillovers : the Case of Foreign Direct Investment in Chinese Industry, Journal of Asian Business,21 (2) : forthcoming. Empirical Evidence on the Regional Spillover Effects of FDI in China Zhong Changbiao (Business School of Ningbo University) Abstract :Using data of Chinaπs regions for the period of ,this paper has developed a spatial dynamic econometric model to analyze regional effects of foreign direct investment. Our key result shows that foreign presence generates spillovers,both intra2regional and inter2regional. This suggests that presence of multinational enterprises in one region stimulates productivity of not only its own region but also other regions. Other findings include evidence of the role of learning by doing and of inter2 dependency of output between regions in enhancing regional economic growth. The key findings of the paper have important policy implications. Key Words : FDI; Intra2regional Spillovers ; Inter2regional Spillovers ; Panel Data JEL Classification :F230 ( : ) ( : ) 89

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