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256 226 2015 1 8 1112 7163 http://elwahat.univ-ghardaia.

1 okbabde@gmail.com 2 Zergoune.me@univ-ouargla.dz

2 E31 F31 H2 G01 jel The impact of the euro zone crisis on oil revenues of Algeria For the period Abstract - Like most developing underdeveloped countries Algerian exports is characterized by unilateralism that nature granted a comparative advantage in the production of hydrocarbons, that accounted for 98% of the export structure. In light of the survival nature of the rentier economy and structure of exports in the short and medium term as it is, with no clear strategies for action to change this structure, the Algerian economy and its growth, and economic policies made known remain closely linked to fluctuations in oil prices and global demand. This study highlights the periods of crisis as an exceptional situation affects tion centers financially and economically, causing cases of economic recession, which may live up to a ceiling of recession, affecting the most national macroeconomic variables, and moving from local dye to a regional and global scale through economic infection channels, perhaps the most important is the business deals channel, which considered exports including one of the most important vulnerability and impact entrances. Accordingly, we follow in this study the impact of The euro zone crisis on the Algerian oil revenues, and through the econometric model formulated. Keywords: financial crisis, oil revenue, exchange rate, inflation. (JEL) Classification : G01, H2, F31, E31 227

5 % _ 1 1 _

6 Yung Chul Park, Kee- Hong Bae, Financial Liberalization and Economic Integration in East Asia, PECC Finance Forum Conference Issues and Prospects for Regional Cooperation for Financial Stability and Development, Hilton Hawaiian Village,Honolulu, August 2002, P 2. t+asia.pdf 231

7 مارتن شيهاك وسروبونا متيرا ا وربا تفقد هالتها مجلة التمويل والتنمية صندوق النقد الدولي المجلد 46 العدد 2 جويلية 2009 ص

9 Kirkegaard %3 % 20 ERM II Ulrich Volz, Lessons of the European Crisis for Regional Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, Asian development Bank Institute, ADBI Working Paper Series, No 347, February 2012, Japan, P

10 Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and C. Fred Bergsten, The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis, Petrson Institute for International Economics, policy Brief, Number Pb 12 1, January 2012, Washington, P «no bailout» clause (Article 125 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union) and Article 123. EUROPEAN UNION, CONSOLIDATED VERSION OF THE TREATY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, Official Journal of the European Union, 30/03/2010,P Ulrich Volz, Loc.Cit. 235

11 ,

12 /. 237

13 Source:

15 *

256 226 2015 1 8 4 20122001 Source:ONS, La Direction Technique Chargée de la Comptabilité Nationale, EVOLUTION DES ECHANGES EXTERIEURS DE

16 Source:ONS, La Direction Technique Chargée de la Comptabilité Nationale, EVOLUTION DES ECHANGES EXTERIEURS DE MARCHANDISES DE , Collections Statistiques N 182 /2014, MARS 2014, p91. *

17 عقبة عبداللاوي نور الدين جوادي الا زمة الا وروبية الراهنة وا ثرها على الاقتصاد الجزاي ري الملتقى الدولي الثاني حول واقع التكتلات الاقتصادية زمن الا زمات جامعة الوادي فيفري 242 ص حول ظاهرة قنوات العدوى الاقتصادية للا زمات راجع : عقبة عبد اللاوي ونورالدين جوادي الا زمات المالية : سجال التدويل وا طروحات التعولم الثلاثي ورقة قدمت ضمن المو تمر العلمي.2 الدولي حول : الا زمة المالية والاقتصادية العالمية المعاصرة من منظور اقتصادي ا سلامي جامعة العلوم الا سلامية العالمية بالتعاون مع المعهد العالمي للفكر الا سلامي عم ان الا ردن 1 2 ديسمبر 2010.

18 % 40 % هنالك بعض الاقتصاديين من يسمي هذه الظاهرة بالاستقطاب. راجع مثلا : بعض مو لفات الدكتور سمير ا مين. واطلع على : موله عبد االله التكامل الاقتصادي الجديد : الثابت والمتغير مجلة المستقبل العربي مركز دراسات الوحدة العربية لبنان العدد 279/ ماي 2002 ص

256 226 2015 1 8 % 97 1 1.5 2 2 : 1.www.algex.dz 2012 1 2. Misan Rewane, OVERRATED?

19 % : Misan Rewane, OVERRATED? THE IMPACT OF OIL REVENUE ON NIGERIA S CREDITWORTHINESS, DEBT PROFILE & SUSTAINABILITY, , Stanford University, Stanford, May 2007, PP * Pandok Bitrus Yamden, Global Financial Crisis and Oil Revenue in Nigeria, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, United States, Vol 2, No 5, 2011, PP

256 226 2015 1 8 Y X 1 X 2 X 3 : ) 3 X Y= f(x 1

20 Y X 1 X 2 X 3 : ) 3 X Y= f(x 1 X 2 Y 0 1 X 1 DZ/US $ X 2 X 3 OAPEC

22 : X 3 + U 3 β X 2 2 β X 1 1β 0Y= β (error term) U β 3 β 2 β 1 β 0 2 SPSS 20 Enter OLS Exch crisis Reve = Inf ( t ) (3.850) (-5.809) (-2.539) (4.252) DW = F = R = R =

23 Exc crisis F

24 Sig % sig 5 a. Dependent Variable: Reve, b. Predictors: (Constant) inf crisis Exch SPSS 20 Adjusted R Square 4 R = Model Summary b U a. Predictors: (Constant) inf crisis Exch b. Dependent Variable: Reve SPSS

25 Intercept 1.5 t , Sig β3 <0) β3 β2 <0 β1 <0 β3> 0 β t , Sig β t , Sig

26 β t , Sig Coefficients a a. Dependent Variable: Reve SPSS Durbin-Watson DU 1.71 DU 251

27 VIF variance inflation factor VIF VIF= 1/Tolerance 10 5 VIF (observed cum (expected cum prob) 5 VIF 3.6 prob) SPSS 20. الشكل 4: التوزيع الطبيعي للا خطاء المصدر: مخرجات البرنامج الا حصاي ي SPSS

256 226 2015 1 8 (y) (standardized residual SPSS 20 الشكل 5:

28 (y) (standardized residual SPSS 20 الشكل 5: انتشار البواقي المعيارية المصدر: مخرجات البرنامج الا حصاي ي SPSS

29 Y X 1 X 3 X _

30 OAPEC OAPEC Ulrich Volz Lessons of the European Crisis for Regional Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia Asian development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper Series No 347 February 2012 Japan Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and C. Fred Bergsten The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis Petrson Institute for International Economics policy Brief Number Pb 12 1 January 2012 Washington EUROPEAN UNION CONSOLIDATED VERSION OF THE TREATY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Official Journal of the European Union 30/03/2010 P83. PDF 14.Misan Rewane OVERRATED? THE IMPACT OF OIL REVENUE ON NIGERIA S CREDITWORTHINESS DEBT PROFILE &

31 SUSTAINABILITY Stanford University Stanford May 2007 PP Pandok Bitrus Yamden Global Financial Crisis and Oil Revenue in Nigeria Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development United States Vol 2 No PP Yung Chul Park Kee- Hong Bae Financial Liberalization and Economic Integration in East Asia PECC Finance Forum Conference Issues and Prospects for Regional Cooperation for Financial Stability and Development Hilton Hawaiian Village Honolulu August ntegration+in+east+asia.pdf 17.ONS, La Direction Technique Chargée de la Comptabilité Nationale, EVOLUTION DES ECHANGES EXTERIEURS DE MARCHANDISES DE , Collections Statistiques N 182 /2014, MARS

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