: 3 : 1986 2008,,,,,, : 20 70, ( FDI) (UNCTAD, 2003), 1991 2002 FDI, 1500, 100 FDI,,,,,, FDI,, FDI,, FDI,,,, Haskel et al (2002),,, 1993, (UNCTAD, 1994) 3,, :315211, :zhongchangbiao @nbu. edu. cn ( :70673048 ;70810107006) 80
2010 1,,,,,,,,,, FDI ( :,2000 ;,2008),, (, 2005,,2008 ;,2009), (2008), FDI,FDI,, (2009), FDI,, : ; ; ; (spillovers),, (Meyer, 2004) Ggrg & Greenaway (2002), ( Krugman 1991,p. 5), FDI ( intra2industry spillovers), (inter2industry spillovers),,,,,,, ( ) (Jeffrey et al,2005),,,, 81
: (Aitken & Harrison, 1999),,, (Blomstrom and Kokko,1996),,, (Haacker,1999),, - (core2periphery setting) (Uwe, 1996),,,, ( Yang, 1990),,,,, (Aitken & Harrison, 1999),,, Smarzynska &Mariana (2005), Krugman (1991) Bazo et al (2004),,,, Madariaga & Poncet (2005) (spatial autoregression), :,,,,,, :,, ;,,,, 82
2010 1 ( ) Cobb2Douglas, FDI FDI Aitken & Harrison (1999) Caballero &Lyons (1989,1990), - : ln Q p, t = 0 + 1 ln Q p, t - 1 + 2 Wln Q t + 3 ln K p, t + 4 lnl p, t + 5 ln FDI p, t - 1 + 6 Wln FDI t - 1 + p + t + it (1) (1) p t, Q GDP, K,L, FDI W,, (1) 2 W, Wln Q t Wln FDI t - 1,, FDI Q,, (1), W : W ij = 1Πd 2 ij (2) d ij i j Keller (2002),,,, (1) ln FDI p, t - 1, Wln FDI p, t - 1,, FDI, FDI (perpetual inventory method) 10 % FDI (learning by doing) Islam (1995), (ln FDI p, t - 1 ), Oulton (1997),,Basu & Fernald (1995),,, (1), ( ), FDI,, Buckley et al. (2006) Driffield (2001),,, Q p, t - 1 ( Q, K, L) Q p, t - 1 Q p, t - 2, Q p, t - 3,, Q p, t - n,,, Lee et al (1998) Pesaran & Smith (1995), Oulton (1996), (specification) 83
: FDI ( Haskel et al, 2002), FDI FDI FDI ( ) (1), (1) ln Q p, t - 1, (OLS), (1),,,,,, FDI,,,,, GMM (1), Driscoll & Kraay (1998) GMM, (Newey & West,1987) Arellano & Bond (1991), ln Q p, t - 1 ln Q p, t - 1, (Oliveira & Fortunato,2006) Arellano &Bover (1995) Blundell &Bond (1998),GMM (1) : ln Q p, t = 0 + 1 ln Q p, t - 1 + 2 Wln Q t + 3 ln K p, t + 4 lnl i, t + 5 ln FDI p, t - 1 + 6 Wln FDI t - 1 + 1 + p, t (3) ln Q p, t - 2 ln Q p, t - 1, ln Q p, t, GMM, (Blundell et al,1992 ; Easterly et al,1997), 1986 2008, 1988 1997,,, 28, 31, 644 (28 23),,,,, (3),, ( N) ( T),( Holtz2Eakin et al,1988),, GMM,, FDI ( ),, (ML) Bolnigen et al (2007) GMM, Matyas & Sevestre (1996) 84
2010 1 (1) 1 1, Levin et al (2002) t2 Im et ( ) Levin, Lin Chuπs t2test ( ) Im, Pesaran Shinπs Wald ( ) al (2003) Wald 1 %, lnq p, t - 12167 333-14122 333 ln K p, t - 23146 333-25168 333 lnl p, t - 16152 333-19175 333, ln FDI p, t - 18132 333-11129 333 : (1) 3 333 10 % 5 % 1 % ; (2) ; (3) :ln Q p, t,ln K p, t,lnl p, t ln FDI p, t 2, (1986 2008) ( N = 644) t2 t2, 41362 333 10128 61021 333 8158 ln Q p, t - 1 01080 333 3126 ( Spatial Leg WlnQ t 01011 3 1189 Model,SLM) ln K p, t 01348 333 4121 01303 333 3168 (Spatial Error Model,SEM) lnl p, t 01570 333 3169 01590 333 5106 Anselin (1995,2005) ln FDI p, t - 1 01050 3 1186 01071 33 1197 Wln FDI t - 1 01019 33 1198 01033 1159, Lagrange ( ) gr 2 Multiplier (LM) 01791 01815 : lag LM 2 (6) = 91326 2 (6) = 71381 err LM :, 111268 Sargan :, AR(1) 2 (1) - 31675 333 Robust lag LM Robust - 11581 AR(2) 2 (1) err LM,, : (1) 3 33 333 10 % 5 % 1 % ; (2) -,, 2 (3) GMM,, Sargan, 2 ( ln Q p, t - 1 ) ( Wln Q t ), (specification) -,Sargan,, lag LM 6126 333, err LM 0198 85
: ( gr 2 ),,, ln Q p, t - 1 Wln Q t, 10 % ln Q p, t - 1, Wln Q t,,, ln FDI p, t - 1,,, ( ) Jaffe (1989,p. 957), 3 (1993 2008) ( N = 448) Wln FDI t - 1 2, t2, 31587 333 4129 lnq p, t - 1 01058 3 1189,, Wln Q t 01021 333 3116 ln K p, t 01308 333 3145 lnl p, t 01603 333 3102 3, ln FDI p, t - 1 01132 333 6122 1993 2008, Wln FDI t - 1 01049 333 4126 (3) ( ), gr 2 01772 1992, : 2 (6) = 91369, Wln FDI p, t - 1, Krugman (1991) Madariaga & Poncet (2005), : Sargan : AR(1) 2 (1) AR(2) 2 (1) 121694-21364 333-11594 : (1) 3 33 333 10 % 5 % 1 % ; (2) -,?,,,, ( ) Belderbos et al (2001),,,, 86
2010 1,,, 1993 2008, 1993, (Wang,2006 ; Buckley et al,2002),,, ;, ( ),,,,,,,,,,, 3 ln FDI p, t - 1, t -, ln FDI p, t - 1 Wln FDI t - 1,, 2 1,,, Wln Q t, ln FDI p, t - 1 Wln FDI t - 1 1 1993,,, (ln ( K it ) ) (ln ( L it ) ),, 1986 2008,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ln FDI p, t - 1 1986 2008 87
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2010 1 Easterly, W., Loayza, N., Montiel, P.,1997, Has Latin Americaπs Post2Reform Growth been Disappointing?, Journal of International Economics, 43 : 287 311. Ggrg, H. and Greenaway, D.,2002, Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment? CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3485 (London : Centre for Economic Policy Research). Haacker, Markus, 1999, Spillover from Foreign Investment Through Labour Turnover : the Supply of Management Skills, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics. Haskel, Jonathan E., Sonia C. Pereira and Matthew J. Slaughter,2002, Does Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms, Working Paper, No. 452 (London : Queen Mary, University of London). Holtz2Eakin,D.,Newey,W. and Rosen, H.,1988, Estimating Vector Auto2regressions with Panel Data, Econometrica, 56 (6) : 1371 1395. Jaffe,A. B.,1989, Real Effects of Academic Research, American Economic Review, 79 : 957 970. Islam, N.,1995, Growth Empirics, A Panel Data Approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 60 : 1127 1170. Krugman, Paul,1996, How the Economy Organizes Itself in Space : A Survey of the New Economic Geography, Working Papers 962042021, Santa Fe Institute. Krugman, P.,1991, Increasing Returns and Economic Geography, Journal of Political Economy, 99 (3) : 483 499. Lee,K.,Pesaran,M. H. and Smith,R.,1998, Growth Empirics,A Panel Data Approach A Comment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 63 : 319 23. Liu,Xiaming, Siler, Pamela, Wang, Chengqi & Wei,Yingqi,2000, Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment : Evidence from UK Industry Level Panel Data, Journal of International Business Studies, 31 (3), 407 425. Madariaga Nicole and Poncet Sandra, 2005, FDI Impact on Growth : Spatial Evidence from China, http :ΠΠwww. cerdi. orgπcolloqueπ CHINE2005ΠpapierΠPoncet - 171pdf Dordrecht. Matyas,L.,Sevestre,P. ( Eds. ), 1996, The Econometrics of Panel Data : A Handbook of the Theory with Applications, Kluwer Academic, Meyer E. K.,2004, Perspectives on Multinational Enterprises in Emerging Economies, Journal of International Business Studies, 35 (4), 259 276. Oliveira,B. and Fortunato, A., 2006, Testing Gibratπs Law : Empirical Evidence from a Panel of Portuguese Manufacturing Firms, International Journal of the Economics and Business, 13 (1) : 65 81. Oulton, N.,1996, Increasing Returns and Externalities in UKManufacturing : Myth or Reality? Journal of Industrial Economics, 44 : 99 113. Oulton, N.,1997, Total Factor Productivity Growth and the Role of Externalities, National Institute Review, 162 : 99 111. Pesaran, M. and Smith, R.,1995, Estimating Long Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 68 : 79 113. Smarzynska, Javorcik Beata and Mariana Spatareanu,2005, Disentangling FDI Spillover Effects : What do Firm Perceptions Tell Us?, in Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development? Edited by Theodore H. Moran,Edward M. Graham,and Magnus Blomstrom, Washington D. C. UNCTAD, 2003,World Investment Report, New York, UN. UNCTAD, 1994,World Investment Report, New York, UN. Uwe,Walz,1996, Transport Costs,Intermediate Goods,and Localized Growth, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26 : 671 695. Wang,Chengqi,2007, Heterogeneity of Firms and Spillovers : the Case of Foreign Direct Investment in Chinese Industry, Journal of Asian Business,21 (2) : forthcoming. Empirical Evidence on the Regional Spillover Effects of FDI in China Zhong Changbiao (Business School of Ningbo University) Abstract :Using data of Chinaπs regions for the period of 1986 2008,this paper has developed a spatial dynamic econometric model to analyze regional effects of foreign direct investment. Our key result shows that foreign presence generates spillovers,both intra2regional and inter2regional. This suggests that presence of multinational enterprises in one region stimulates productivity of not only its own region but also other regions. Other findings include evidence of the role of learning by doing and of inter2 dependency of output between regions in enhancing regional economic growth. The key findings of the paper have important policy implications. Key Words : FDI; Intra2regional Spillovers ; Inter2regional Spillovers ; Panel Data JEL Classification :F230 ( : ) ( : ) 89