256 226 2015 1 8 1112 7163 http://elwahat.univ-ghardaia.dz 2012 2005 2 1 1 okbabde@gmail.com 2 Zergoune.me@univ-ouargla.dz 98 226

256 226 2015 1 8 E31 F31 H2 G01 jel The impact of the euro zone crisis on oil revenues of Algeria For the period 2005-2012 Abstract - Like most developing underdeveloped countries Algerian exports is characterized by unilateralism that nature granted a comparative advantage in the production of hydrocarbons, that accounted for 98% of the export structure. In light of the survival nature of the rentier economy and structure of exports in the short and medium term as it is, with no clear strategies for action to change this structure, the Algerian economy and its growth, and economic policies made known remain closely linked to fluctuations in oil prices and global demand. This study highlights the periods of crisis as an exceptional situation affects tion centers financially and economically, causing cases of economic recession, which may live up to a ceiling of recession, affecting the most national macroeconomic variables, and moving from local dye to a regional and global scale through economic infection channels, perhaps the most important is the business deals channel, which considered exports including one of the most important vulnerability and impact entrances. Accordingly, we follow in this study the impact of The euro zone crisis on the Algerian oil revenues, and through the econometric model formulated. Keywords: financial crisis, oil revenue, exchange rate, inflation. (JEL) Classification : G01, H2, F31, E31 227

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256 226 2015 1 8 229

256 226 2015 1 8 1980 1 2000 % 281 3.9 8.1 1980 93 2.5 8.5 1990 35 9.5 4.9 2000 _ 1 1 _ 57. 230 228 2012 58

256 226 2015 1 8 2009 300 127 1 1. Yung Chul Park, Kee- Hong Bae, Financial Liberalization and Economic Integration in East Asia, PECC Finance Forum Conference Issues and Prospects for Regional Cooperation for Financial Stability and Development, Hilton Hawaiian Village,Honolulu, 11-13 August 2002, P 2. http://www.obela.org/system/files/financial+liberalization+and+economic+integration+in+eas t+asia.pdf 231

256 226 2015 1 8 2007 2008 1 1. مارتن شيهاك وسروبونا متيرا ا وربا تفقد هالتها مجلة التمويل والتنمية صندوق النقد الدولي.12 232 المجلد 46 العدد 2 جويلية 2009 ص

256 226 2015 1 8 1 2 3 233 13 1 2009 2 46 2 9 3

256 226 2015 1 8 1 Kirkegaard %3 % 20 ERM II 2004 1. Ulrich Volz, Lessons of the European Crisis for Regional Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, Asian development Bank Institute, ADBI Working Paper Series, No 347, February 2012, Japan, P13. www.adbi.org/files/2012.02.21.wp347.lessons.european.crisis.east.asia.pdf 234

256 226 2015 1 8 1 2 3 1. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and C. Fred Bergsten, The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis, Petrson Institute for International Economics, policy Brief, Number Pb 12 1, January 2012, Washington, P06. www.iie.com/publications/pb/pb12-1.pdf 2. «no bailout» clause (Article 125 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union) and Article 123. EUROPEAN UNION, CONSOLIDATED VERSION OF THE TREATY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, Official Journal of the European Union, 30/03/2010,P83. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=oj:c:2010:083:0047:0200:en:pdf 3. Ulrich Volz, Loc.Cit. 235

256 226 2015 1 8 2 45 40 1 30 45 2012 21,8 1 123 1999 236

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256 226 2015 1 8 Source: www.ons.dz./ http://www.ons.dz/img/pdf/prodnation2000-2013.pd 238

256 226 2015 1 8 1 20122002 1 20082005 50 239 2009 43 40 20122010

256 226 2015 1 8 2009-2001 3 * 1 2.5 240

256 226 2015 1 8 4 20122001 Source:ONS, La Direction Technique Chargée de la Comptabilité Nationale, EVOLUTION DES ECHANGES EXTERIEURS DE MARCHANDISES DE 2001-2012, Collections Statistiques N 182 /2014, MARS 2014, p91. http://www.ons.dz/img/pdf/comexpub2012_avril.pdf * 97 241

256 226 2015 1 8 1 2. 1 عقبة عبداللاوي نور الدين جوادي الا زمة الا وروبية الراهنة وا ثرها على الاقتصاد الجزاي ري الملتقى الدولي الثاني حول واقع التكتلات الاقتصادية زمن الا زمات جامعة الوادي 27-26 فيفري 242 ص 2012. 2 حول ظاهرة قنوات العدوى الاقتصادية للا زمات راجع : عقبة عبد اللاوي ونورالدين جوادي الا زمات المالية : سجال التدويل وا طروحات التعولم الثلاثي ورقة قدمت ضمن المو تمر العلمي.2 الدولي حول : الا زمة المالية والاقتصادية العالمية المعاصرة من منظور اقتصادي ا سلامي جامعة العلوم الا سلامية العالمية بالتعاون مع المعهد العالمي للفكر الا سلامي عم ان الا ردن 1 2 ديسمبر 2010.

256 226 2015 1 8 1 % 40 % 25 2011 70 56. 1 هنالك بعض الاقتصاديين من يسمي هذه الظاهرة بالاستقطاب. راجع مثلا : بعض مو لفات الدكتور سمير ا مين. واطلع على : موله عبد االله التكامل الاقتصادي الجديد : الثابت والمتغير مجلة المستقبل العربي مركز دراسات الوحدة العربية لبنان العدد 279/ ماي 2002 ص. 28 243

256 226 2015 1 8 % 97 1 1.5 2 2 : 1.www.algex.dz 2012 1 2. Misan Rewane, OVERRATED? THE IMPACT OF OIL REVENUE ON NIGERIA S CREDITWORTHINESS, DEBT PROFILE & SUSTAINABILITY, 1973-2004, Stanford University, Stanford, May 2007, PP 1-52. http://economics.stanford.edu/files/theses/theses_2007/rewane2007.pdf * Pandok Bitrus Yamden, Global Financial Crisis and Oil Revenue in Nigeria, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, United States, Vol 2, No 5, 2011, PP 1-17 http://www.iiste.org/journals/index.php/jeds/article/view/467/352 244

256 226 2015 1 8 Y X 1 X 2 X 3 : ) 3 X Y= f(x 1 X 2 Y 0 1 X 1 DZ/US $ X 2 X 3 OAPEC 20122005 5 245

256 226 2015 1 8 20122005 3 2012 2004 20122005 3 246

256 226 2015 1 8 2012 2004 : X 3 + U 3 β X 2 2 β X 1 1β 0Y= β (error term) U β 3 β 2 β 1 β 0 2 SPSS 20 Enter OLS Exch 1.493 crisis 24.479-152.668Reve = 5.374 Inf ( t ) (3.850) (-5.809) (-2.539) (4.252) DW = F = 48.725 R = 0.601 2 R 1.932 = 0.614 247

256 226 2015 1 8 Exc crisis 248 3 F 48.725

256 226 2015 1 8 Sig 0.000 5% sig 5 a. Dependent Variable: Reve, b. Predictors: (Constant) inf crisis Exch SPSS 20 Adjusted R Square 4 R =0.601 60.1 6 Model Summary b U a. Predictors: (Constant) inf crisis Exch b. Dependent Variable: Reve SPSS 20 249

256 226 2015 1 8 5 Intercept 1.5 t 0 152.668, Sig 0.000 β3 <0) β3 β2 <0 β1 <0 β3> 0 β 1 2.5 t 1 5.809, Sig 0.000 β 2 3.5 t 2 2.539, Sig 0.013 250

256 226 2015 1 8 β 3 4.5 t 3 4.252, Sig 0.000 7 Coefficients a a. Dependent Variable: Reve SPSS 20 6 1.6 Durbin-Watson 1.932 2.29 4-1.71 4-DU 1.71 DU 251

256 226 2015 1 8 2.6 VIF variance inflation factor VIF VIF= 1/Tolerance 10 5 VIF (observed cum (expected cum prob) 5 VIF 3.6 prob) SPSS 20. الشكل 4: التوزيع الطبيعي للا خطاء المصدر: مخرجات البرنامج الا حصاي ي SPSS 20 252

256 226 2015 1 8 (y) (standardized residual SPSS 20 الشكل 5: انتشار البواقي المعيارية المصدر: مخرجات البرنامج الا حصاي ي SPSS 20 253

256 226 2015 1 8 Y X 1 X 3 X 2 1 2 3 60.1 1 2012 58 _ 57 2 279 2002 3 2010 2 1 254

256 226 2015 1 8 4 2012 2726 1999 5 6 2009 2 46 7 2009 2 46 OAPEC 8 200920082007200620052004 255 201220112010 OAPEC 9 2013 2012 10.www.algex.dz 11. Ulrich Volz Lessons of the European Crisis for Regional Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia Asian development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper Series No 347 February 2012 Japan. www.adbi.org/files/2012.02.21.wp347.lessons.european.crisis.east.asia.pdf 12. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and C. Fred Bergsten The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis Petrson Institute for International Economics policy Brief Number Pb 12 1 January 2012 Washington. www.iie.com/publications/pb/pb12-1.pdf 13. EUROPEAN UNION CONSOLIDATED VERSION OF THE TREATY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Official Journal of the European Union 30/03/2010 P83. http://eurlex.europa.eu/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=oj:c:2010:083:0047:0200:en: PDF 14.Misan Rewane OVERRATED? THE IMPACT OF OIL REVENUE ON NIGERIA S CREDITWORTHINESS DEBT PROFILE &

256 226 2015 1 8 SUSTAINABILITY 1973-2004 Stanford University Stanford May 2007 PP 1-52. http://economics.stanford.edu/files/theses/theses_2007/rewane2007.pdf 15.Pandok Bitrus Yamden Global Financial Crisis and Oil Revenue in Nigeria Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development United States Vol 2 No 5 2011 PP 1-17 http://www.iiste.org/journals/index.php/jeds/article/view/467/352 16. Yung Chul Park Kee- Hong Bae Financial Liberalization and Economic Integration in East Asia PECC Finance Forum Conference Issues and Prospects for Regional Cooperation for Financial Stability and Development Hilton Hawaiian Village Honolulu 11-13 August 2002. http://www.obela.org/system/files/financial+liberalization+and+economic+i ntegration+in+east+asia.pdf 17.ONS, La Direction Technique Chargée de la Comptabilité Nationale, EVOLUTION DES ECHANGES EXTERIEURS DE MARCHANDISES DE 2001-2012, Collections Statistiques N 182 /2014, MARS 2014 18. www.ons.dz. 256