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www.clmatechange.cn 11 = 1!"#$% 2015 1 PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 11 No. 1 January 2015 do:10.3969/j.ssn.1673-1719.2015.01.009,,,.!"#$%&'(!"#=[j].!"#$%, 2015, 11 (1): 61-67!

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2 = = = 62!"#$% 2015!"#$%&'(!)*+Edwards x6z CGE!"#$%&$'()*+,-./ Bo hrnger x7z CGE!"#$%&'()!"#$%!"#Losel x8z!"!"#$%"&'()*%+,-./0 ====1990!!"#$%CGE!!"#$%&!"#$%&'!"# 1==!"# Table 1 Sector defnton of the model n ths study!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ x9z CGE!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%&Lu x10z!"# CGE!"#$%&'()*+,-./01234 Da x11z!"#$%&'()*+&',-.!"#$!%&'()* x 12z CGE!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(#)*+,-./0 x13z!"#$cge!"#$ %&!"#$%&' ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'()*+,(-./0!"#$%&'!"#$%!"&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'()*+,-&./012 N==!" ====CGE!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()!"#$"%&!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- ICAP/CGE-GD!"#$%&'()!"#$%&' ()*+,-./!" CGE!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&'!"()*+!"!"#!"!"!"# 5!"# NKN==! (1)!"!33!"# 7!" 1!"#$%&'(!"#$!"#$%&'(!" !"#$%!"!"#!!"!!"!"#$%!!!"#!!!"#!"#$%!"#$%!"#$%!"!"!"#$!"!"!"

3 1!!"#$%&'(!"# 63 ====!"# x14z Da x11z!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$!"#$%&!"!"#$%!"#$%&' 7 7!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$!"#$%&'()*+$!"#$%&' (2)!"!"#$%&'!!"#$%&'( I!"#$%!"#$%&'(!" ! GDP!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 (3)!"!"#$%&'!(!"#$%&&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%!"##$%&'!"#$ (4)!"!"#$%&'!!"#$%& '()*+,-!!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-. (5)!" CGE!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./0!"#$%&'Armngton x15z!"#$%&'(')%*+,-./01!"#$!"# Maxπ = p Q J ( p md Q md + Σp nf D nf )==(1) Q = α ( δ md Q md + Σδ nf Q nf 1 Jρ Jρ JJ ) ρ ===(2) Q md = α Jρ δ md p p md ( ) ( ) D nf = α Jρ δ nf p p nf 1 1+ρ ====Q ============(3) 1 1+ρ ====Q =============(4) W=π!"#$%Q!"# nf D!"#$%!"#p nf!"#p!"#$%!"#$ nf md α!"#$%&'δ Iδ!" nf md md nf!"0δ 1I0δ 1Iδ +Σδ =1 ρ!"#$%&'()*+,-. (6) CO 2!"CO 2!"#$!"!"#$3!" x11z!"#$%&!"#$%&' CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&!"#$%!"!"#$%!"!!!"!"#$%&'()!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&#'( CO 2 (7)!"#$!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%!"#$%&'!!!"#$%&'()*"#+!"#$%&'()*+,-!" ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./)!"#$%&'$()!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./ C 1 C 2!" 1 2!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+, P P 2 P P 1 0 S 1 Q 1 A A 1!"#$%&'( Fg. 1 Mechansm of carbon emsson trade between sectors B Q 1 Q 2 Q 2 S 2 B C 1 C 2 Q ====!"#$% 1!"#$% Q 1!"2 Q 2!ICAP/CGE-GD!!"#$!"#$! (5)(6) Σ s Q s = Σ b Q b ========================(5) p p s p p b Σ s C s ( p)dp = Σ b C b ( p)dp============(6) s b!"#$%&'()'* Q!"#$C( p)!"#$%&'()p

4 = = = 64!"#$% =2015 p p!"#$%&s = C( p)dp!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- NKO== (1) 2007!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%& 2007!"#$%&'()!"#$ x14z!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&'())*+,!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%! "#$%&!"#$%&'()* (2)! x16z CGE!"#$%&'!"#$!"#$%&'( CO 2!!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%&!'()*+#$),-!"#$!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 CO 2 ====!"#$%&!"#$%&'"!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$% x17z!"#$%&'() 42!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-./!!"#$%!&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'() (3) CO 2!"CO 2! IPCC x18z!"!" CO 2!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$% NKP==! ====!"#$!%&'()*+,-./0!!"#1!"#3!"!!!"#$%&'( ====!" ! GDP!"#$!"#$%&!! x17z!"#$ x19z!!" x20z !GDP!"#$7.5%!" 0.5%!!!"#$%!" x21z !"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$%&'( 3% ====!"#!"#$%&'()*&!" x21z!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'( 2012! CO 2!" 3.5 t!" 2015!"#$% % ====!"# $%&'!"()*+,!"#$%!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&2015!" % O==!"# OKN==`l O! ==== 2!"#$%& CO 2!"#$!"!"#$%&'() CO 2!!"2013!"#$6.16 t!"# $%&'!"(2013! 6.04 t!"#$%& 0.16 t 0.28 CO 2! /Mt !!!"!"#$%& CO 2! Fg. 2 Total carbon doxde emssons 2016

www.clmatechange.cn 1!!"#$%&'(!"# 65 t 2015!"#$!"%&'!" CO 2!"#$% 0.51 t 0.88 t!"#$%&'()* CO 2! OKO==!"#$% ==== 3 2015!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%!"#!"#$% CO 2!"#$!!"#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%!&'!"()*+,!"#$%! /Mt 300 250 200 150 100!

5 1!!"#$%&'(!"# 65 t 2015!"#$!"%&'!" CO 2!"#$% 0.51 t 0.88 t!"#$%&'()* CO 2! OKO==!"#$% ==== !"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%!"#!"#$% CO 2!"#$!!"#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%!&'!"()*+,!"#$%! /Mt !!!"!"#$%&!"#$!"#$!"#$%!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%$&'()*!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,#$-./ CO 2!"#$%&'!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+,-. OKQ==!" ==== 5!"#$%&'()#$%*+,!"#$%&'(!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!" 2013!"#$% 149 /t CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'()*2015!"# 99 /t CO !"#$ CO 2 Fg. 3 Carbon emssons of the four departments n 2015 OKP==!"# ==== 4!"#$%&!"#$'()*+!"# /( /t CO 2 ) !!" 4!"#$%&'()*+,-./ Fg. 4 Margnal abatement costs of four departments under polcy scenaros! /( /t CO 2 ) !"#$%& Fg. 5 Average carbon prce of four sectors under ETS OKR==dam ==== 6!"#!"#!"#!"# $ GDP!"!"#$ 2013!"#$%& GDP 2015!" GDP 0.7% GDP 0.9%!"#$%&'("!"GDP!"#$0.8%!"! GDP!!"#$GDP!"#$%&'( GDP

6 = = = 66!"#$% =2015 GDP /% !!"!"#$%& !"#$ %&' GDP Fg. 6 GDP losses under the polcy scenaros compared wth the baselne scenaro OKS==!"#$% ====!"#$%&'($%)*+,-./!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$ 20%GDP!!"#$%&'()*+,- ====!"#$%3!"! GDP!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&!"#$% 20% J20%!"# 16% J17.5%! 3==!"#$% Table 3 Model senstvty analyss %!" GDP CO 2!!"#$%&'()*+,-./)01 20% !"#$%&'()*+,-./)01 20% J4.7 J7.3 J0.8 J14.3!"#$%&'()*+%,- 20% J19.6!"#$%&'()*+%,- 20% J0.6 J17.5 J !"#$%&' 20% !"#$%&' 20% J2.1 J4.0 J0.4 J3.0! 3.0% J2.9%!"#$% 30.3% J19.6% P==! ====!"#$%&'CGE!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& (1)!"#$% &'() CO 2!"#$%&2015!"#$% t CO 2 (2)!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ (3)!" GDP 2015 GDP 0.7%0.9%!"#$%&GDP 0.1!"!"#$%& 90 (4)!"#$%&' 149 /t CO 2!"#$%&2015!" 99 /t CO 2 ====!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&!"#$!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'()*+,)-.!!"#$%&'()*+!,-&."/0!"#$! [1] Brendemoen A, Vennemo H. A clmate treaty and the Norwegan economy: a CGE assessment [J]. The Energy Journal, 1994 (1): [2] Hakonsen L, Mathesen L. Toward a more comprehensve cost measure for CO 2 -reductons [R]. Norway, 1995 [3] Nakata T, Lamont A. Analyss of the mpacts of carbon taxes on energy systems n Japan [J]. Energy Polcy, 2000, 29 (2): [4] Scrmgeour F, Oxley L, Fata K. Reducng carbon emssons? The relatve effectveness of dfferent types of envronmental tax: the case of New

7 1!!"#$%&'(!"# 67 Zealand [J]. Envronmental Modellng & Software, 2005, 20 (11): [5] Wssema W, Dellnk R. AGE analyss of the mpact of a carbon energy tax on the Irsh economy [J]. Ecologcal Economcs, 2007, 61 (4): [6] Edwards T H, Hutton J P. Allocaton of carbon permts wthn a country: a general equlbrum analyss of the Unted Kngdom [J]. Energy Economcs, 2001, 23 (4): [7] Bo hrnger C, Welsch H. Contracton and convergence of carbon emssons: an ntertemporal mult-regon CGE analyss [J]. Journal of Polcy Modelng, 2004, 26 (1): [8] Losel R. Envronmental clmate nstruments n Romana: a comparatve approach usng dynamc CGE modellng [J]. Energy Polcy, 2009, 37 (6): [9],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-"./0 [J].!", 2010 (4): 1-9 [10] Lu C, Zhang X, He J. A CGE analyss to study the mpacts of energy nvestment on economc growth and carbon doxde emsson: a case of Shaanx Provnce n western Chna [J]. Energy, 2010, 35 (11): [11] Da H C, Masu T, Matsuoka Y, et al. Assessment of Chna s clmate commtment and non-fossl energy plan towards 2020 usng hybrd AIM/ CGE model [J]. Energy Polcy, 2011, 39 (5): [12],,.!"#$ CGE!"#$%&!" [J].! :, 2013 (2): [13],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"# : 30 CGE!" [J].!"#$%, 2012, 8 (1): [14]!"#$%&'(.!"#$ 2007 [M]. :!", 2009 [15]!"#$!%,!"#$%.!"#$%=[M]. :!"#$, [16]!"#.!"#$ [M]. :!"#$, [17] Mnstry of Scence and Technology, Economy and Energy. Supply of an nstrument for estmatng the emssons of green house effect gases coupled wth the energy matrx [R/OL] [ ]. matrz/eee24/coefycn.htm [18]!"#$.!"# [M]. :!"#$, [19]!"#$%&'(.!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"=[EB/OL] [ ]. fzgh/ztgh/sewghgy/201106/t _ htm [20]!"#$%&'(.!"#$!"=[EB/OL] [ ] /t _ htm [21]!"#$%&'(.!"#$%&'()%*+,- [EB/OL] [ ] /t _ htm Economc Impacts of Carbon Emsson Tradng: Case Study on Guangdong Provnce Ren Songyan 1, Da Hancheng 2, Wang Peng 1, Zhao Daqng 1, Masu Toshhko 2 1 Guangzhou Insttute of Energy Converson, Chnese Academy of Scences, Guangzhou , Chna; 2 Natonal Insttute for Envronmental Studes, Tsukuba , Japan Abstract: Usng a dynamc two-regon computable general equlbrum model, ths study conducted a quanttatve assessment of the mpacts of carbon emsson tradng on the economy of Guangdong Provnce, the partcpatng sectors and the carbon tradng prces. The results show that, n accordance wth the energy conservaton scenaro to be completed by 2015 (19.5% declne n carbon ntensty), GDP wll lose 0.7% compared wth the baselne scenaro; accordng to a low-carbon scenaro to be completed by 2015 (20.5% declne n carbon ntensty), GDP wll lose 0.9% compared wth the baselne scenaro; f carbon tradng polcy s mplemented n the low-carbon scenaro, GDP wll lose 0.8% relatve to the baselne scenaro. The results show that the carbon tradng polcy can save about 9 bllon yuan RMB. Ths analyss supports Guangdong Provnce to acheve both economc development and carbon emsson reducton target. Key words: computable general equlbrum model; Guangdong Provnce; carbon tradng; economc mpact

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